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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 414

BDawg | Posted 11/3/2006 10:29:19 PM | message detail
Yeah at least he ought to hold off the doomsday scenario of a 55/45 match...
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Should I start running now?
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 10:30:29 PM | message detail
I don't know whether to be impressed with Sora's board vote or impressed with Axel's night vote.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 11/3/2006 10:32:02 PM | message detail
I'm thinking Sora might have had the bracket vote - bracket destruction tomorrow

leaderboard, here i come again
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 10:32:51 PM | message detail
One of these days I will get on the leaderboard.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/3/2006 10:32:55 PM | message detail
Just a thought, could Mega Man's faltering during the day be a result of the match picture? Really, the only Mega Man picture that would've been worse is his NES coverart <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/3/2006 10:34:01 PM | message detail
And the way things are looking, and barring any massive upsets (lol Snake/Mega Man) I'm looking to have a very good chance at making the leaderboard, especially if alot of brackets have Sora and Mega Man beats Snake.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 10:34:14 PM | message detail
Mega Man has had that picture he had against Axel plenty of times. I think it's his most used picture, honestly.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 11/3/2006 10:35:30 PM | message detail
and I don't think Sora's going to crush MM during the daytime - MM isn't Gordon Freeman after all. Sora will win it for sure, but he's not going to go from 60% down to 55. this looks to be the first decent performance from MM if he keeps gaining at night and doesn't get overwhelmed by the KH day vote - which, with the match being on a weekend, seems unlikely.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 10:39:12 PM | message detail
What happened with Axel, then? Maybe you can chalk it up to Axel having a much weaker night vote than Sora, but he seems to appeal much more to the more mature, hardcore crowd that the night vote embodies.

If it weren't for his ho-hum performances against Tingle and Gordon Freeman, I'd expect the same out of Sora. Very strange for him this year.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/3/2006 10:39:30 PM | message detail
I meant Mega Man/Ryu. One would expect a KH character to have a strong day vote.

As for today, on the one hand I hope Mega Man can keep this up through the day to stop the somewhat annoying "SNAKE > MM IS A LOCK!!!!!!!!!! LAWL" bandwagon that seems to have gripped the board, but on the other I hope MM falters just so that when he does beat Snake, the Snake bandwagon is going to get burned.

Not that Snake has no chance of winning, but he'd need one hell of a boost in order to make up the ground he needs to against Mega Man, and I just don't see it happening.

The match will be alot closer than it has been though. I could see it going under 52%

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 10:40:25 PM | message detail
And after a second glance it would appear that picture of Mega Man is only his second most used picture...the first being his classic "gun to the head" pose first seen in the Serious Sam match.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/3/2006 10:40:26 PM | message detail
KH, have you actually played KH2? (lol same name)
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
transience | Posted 11/3/2006 10:40:44 PM | message detail
well, what was up with Crono as opposed to Magus and Frog? this year notwithstanding of course. Sora probably has a more balanced vote than the rest of the KH posse.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/3/2006 10:41:03 PM | message detail
From transience
and I don't think Sora's going to crush MM during the daytime - MM isn't Gordon Freeman after all. Sora will win it for sure, but he's not going to go from 60% down to 55. this looks to be the first decent performance from MM if he keeps gaining at night and doesn't get overwhelmed by the KH day vote - which, with the match being on a weekend, seems unlikely.

I don't see why it being a weekend would change anything. You're still getting the same voting shift, just spread out evenly through the day instead of all at once at 3pm.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 10:41:33 PM | message detail
Not that Snake has no chance of winning, but he'd need one hell of a boost in order to make up the ground he needs to against Mega Man

He needs to make up a two point difference from last year.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/3/2006 10:42:17 PM | message detail
Sora seeming to have a more balanced vote is more about him not completely sucking at night as opposed to his castmates.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 10:42:19 PM | message detail
KH, have you actually played KH2? (lol same name)

...of course.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/3/2006 10:44:04 PM | message detail
Whoa, I had no idea he and Mega Man were so close last year. I guess 2k4 must've been a fluke year for Snake after Mega Man handed Snake's ass to him

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/3/2006 10:45:10 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1364
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1775

lol wtf h4x?

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
voltch | Posted 11/3/2006 11:46:43 PM | message detail
snake/megaman is a mini crono/mario isn't it?
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/3/2006 11:47:30 PM | message detail
If that's the case...this would be Snake/Mega Man III...and you know what that means!!
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CB5 Points: 79/84, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/3/2006 11:50:40 PM | message detail
From voltch
snake/megaman is a mini crono/mario isn't it?

Except for the fact that the previous two matches were decisive victories for Mega Man as opposed to blow for blow slobberknockers that were decided by stuffing.

I'd think of Mega/Snake as another Knuckles/Snake

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/3/2006 11:51:31 PM | message detail
Slobberknockers?
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CB5 Points: 79/84, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
janembaman | Posted 11/3/2006 11:51:38 PM | message detail
Arg stop it X_X
Megaman dropping percentage like crazy now and it's annoying >_>
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laff
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/4/2006 12:15:07 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
79-----2--------100.0000000
78-----18-------100.0000000
77-----27-------100.0000000
76-----79-------100.0000000
75-----132------97.7272727
74-----206------96.6019417
73-----290------96.8965517
72-----389------92.2879177
71-----444------93.9189189
70-----594------91.4141414
69-----760------92.3684211
68-----822------89.2944039
67-----1060-----87.3584906
66-----1067-----86.1293346
65-----1166-----86.6209262
64-----1317-----81.9286257
63-----1407-----82.4449183
62-----1379-----80.5656273
61-----1392-----79.5258621
60-----1519-----76.8926926
59-----1498-----75.4339119
58-----1549-----73.2085216
57-----1524-----74.0157480
56-----1583-----71.1307644
55-----1503-----68.4630739
54-----1574-----67.8526048
53-----1596-----65.7268170
52-----1455-----64.7422680
51-----1458-----61.2482853
50-----1348-----61.9436202
49-----1317-----59.9088838
48-----1232-----57.5487013
47-----1156-----57.4394464
46-----1114-----55.2064632
45-----1057-----56.8590350
44-----976------49.5901639
43-----886------51.6930023
42-----819------51.2820513
41-----728------48.9010989
40-----625------45.9200000
39-----540------44.2592593
38-----469------48.8272921
37-----374------40.1069519
36-----351------45.2991453
35-----305------43.9344262
34-----245------42.0408163
33-----184------42.9347826
32-----157------42.0382166
31-----158------37.3417722
30-----115------33.0434783
29-----85-------30.5882353
28-----72-------31.9444444
27-----48-------35.4166667
26-----41-------19.5121951
25-----37-------35.1351351
24-----33-------24.2424242
23-----23-------13.0434783
22-----15-------13.3333333
21-----12-------41.6666667
20-----8--------25.0000000
19-----4--------50.0000000
18-----7--------28.5714286
17-----7--------14.2857143
16-----2--------0.0000000
15-----5--------20.0000000
14-----3--------0.0000000
13-----6--------0.0000000
12-----4--------0.0000000
11-----9--------0.0000000
10-----4--------25.0000000

Everybody with a score or 9 or less got the match wrong.
Overall prediction percentage: 68.14%

An easy match. The -1s, -2s, -3s and -4s all went perfect. All the way down to -11 manage to break 90. No one fell off the Top 50.

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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
Gaddswell | Posted 11/4/2006 12:22:37 AM | message detail
snake/megaman is a mini crono/mario isn't it?

Well, I would say it is in a way. Any Noble Nine member does seem to have a Noble Nine rival.

We have:

Link vs Cloud / Sephiroth
Sonic vs Samus
Snake vs Mega Man
Mario vs Crono
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
transience | Posted 11/4/2006 12:42:28 AM | message detail
this night vote is pretty disappointing.. Mega Man has such weird trends. I never know what he's going to do, which is kind of fun I guess.

but it also can drive you nuts if you're cheering for him!
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xyzzy
janembaman | Posted 11/4/2006 1:12:50 AM | message detail
I like it how Sora didn't win update
Of course,he will...in the day vote or something...but so far it's good
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laff
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/4/2006 1:14:04 AM | message detail
MM's doing well here. Maybe he might scrape his way into the NN for a final time, this year.

That's providing that Sora doesn't kill him with the day vote and drag him under 55% or something.
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARSONICA
zwong1 | Posted 11/4/2006 2:07:39 AM | message detail
__Smurf__, you must really hate on Megaman.

Anyway, it is still a decent performance from Mega Man.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/4/2006 2:19:26 AM | message detail
Come on Megaman, please make Sora look weaker than The Fighting Icon.
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Supporter of Yoshi
janembaman | Posted 11/4/2006 2:22:09 AM | message detail
__Smurf__, you must really hate on Megaman.

Yeah,he is the biggest anti-Megaman member here
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laff
zwong1 | Posted 11/4/2006 2:25:16 AM | message detail
Wonder what Sora will get at the end of the day. I am guessing 43-44% but i am not sure about it.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/4/2006 2:43:42 AM | message detail
Sora just won an update.


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Supporter of Megaman and Sonic
janembaman | Posted 11/4/2006 2:47:10 AM | message detail
Bravo Sora,bravo,you finally won an update
Now can you please stop being an ass and let Megaman kill you?
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laff
zwong1 | Posted 11/4/2006 2:47:57 AM | message detail
It is not near day time and yet Sora managed to win a convincing update. I think Sora can probably get to 44% at the end of the day.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
zwong1 | Posted 11/4/2006 2:53:13 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
zwong1 | Posted 11/4/2006 3:22:39 AM | message detail
Sora just won another update.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/4/2006 3:30:57 AM | message detail
--Sora---

01:00 42.15%
02:00 41.63%
03:00 41.82%
04:00 41.96%
05:00 42.15%
06:00 42.63%


--Ryu--

01:00 39.51%
02:00 40.30%
03:00 41.19%
04:00 42.05%
05:00 42.72%
06:00 43.14%



With the day vote ahead of him, I'm fully expecting Sora to finish ahead of Ryu.

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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARSONICA
Iamyoursnake | Posted 11/4/2006 3:33:11 AM | message detail
Sora won another update.
Iamyoursnake | Posted 11/4/2006 3:34:37 AM | message detail
The only different is Ryu is bad with day votes while Sora is extremely good with day votes. Sora has already won three updates before daylight coming and therefore will be able to break 45% at the end.
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 11/4/2006 3:47:34 AM | message detail
Sexy cut by Sora. <3
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
zwong1 | Posted 11/4/2006 4:02:20 AM | message detail
So far, Sora had won 4 updates and had two ties with Megaman.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 11/4/2006 5:09:53 AM | message detail
So, is it safe to assume MM won't be getting more than 56% by the time this is over? =(
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
voltch | Posted 11/4/2006 5:22:03 AM | message detail
would meagaman do better if he was called rockman though?
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
zwong1 | Posted 11/4/2006 5:24:22 AM | message detail
I don't know but i think Mega Man will do better than Rockman.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
greatone10 | Posted 11/4/2006 5:33:19 AM | message detail
Mega Man would not do better if he was called Rock Man.

This is a North American based website. Only Japanophiles (and people actually from Japan) call him Rock Man.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
zwong1 | Posted 11/4/2006 5:39:40 AM | message detail
What is going on with Sora. He is increasing his percentage like a madman. If this rate goes on, he might break 46-47% on Megaman considering Sora is very strong with day votes.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
AmazingKirby | Posted 11/4/2006 5:44:00 AM | message detail
And Sora breaks 44%!
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caps
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/4/2006 5:45:32 AM | message detail
I'm loving Megaman's slow painful decline in popularity in these battles.
I'm such a sadistic bastard. ^_^
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.