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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 414

Yesmar | Posted 11/3/2006 9:10:49 PM | message detail
Yay for my 54.97 Oracle prediction!!

Yeah. Mega Man's in some serious trouble here. He might even duck down under 55% next update. He should be able to rise back up with the night vote, but it looks like the day vote will definetly send him 55%.

And I would expect Sora to be better with the day vote than Axel was.

The weirdest implication of this though is:

Phoenix Wright as high-end fodder?!!!!

Maybe LUE did massively vote stuff for him. Makes me a little more doubtful of Yoshi's win over Dante.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Gaddswell | Posted 11/3/2006 9:11:04 PM | message detail
In some places, there really is school on Saturday...
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/3/2006 9:11:10 PM | message detail
Well...looks like Mega Man got tired of that crap...
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CB5 Points: 79/84, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:11:13 PM | message detail
Saturday seems so far away !!

And Mega Man increases a little, for sanity's sake.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 11/3/2006 9:11:29 PM | message detail
...and pulled a bowser he did it seems. Unless that percentage drop on soras part was a fluke.
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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/3/2006 9:11:46 PM | message detail
OMG MM gain Snake is so screwed.

I love how you guys call what's going to happen so quickly, reminds me of Crono/Bowser. "OMG Crono to finish with 59%, Sprite Round effect screws Bowser, Yoshi>Luigi>Bowser."
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Kegger9 | Posted 11/3/2006 9:12:09 PM | message detail
Hay guyz, I think it is Saturday, is it not?


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what ever i always new bruce wayne was batman anyway - ertyu
Phoenix Wright will be a little weaker then King of All Cosmos. Just a little.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:12:46 PM | message detail
No matter what, this proves Gordon Freeman is non-linear. Period.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2006 9:13:05 PM | message detail
Watch Sora bring it under 57% next update, then MM bring it back up farther than he he has now in the update after that. That would be awesome.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/3/2006 9:14:09 PM | message detail
No matter what, this proves Gordon Freeman is non-linear. Period.

Why? What's he look like if we use MM through Ryu 2k5?
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/3/2006 9:14:22 PM | message detail
So basically, Sora is doing well because a lot of KH kiddies are up late, and he'll spike early in the morning before MM makes a recovery from lunch until the end of the match.

Paired with KH2F, MM may yet have a shot at Snake!1!

And silly HM, it's Saturday. LOLF.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
Yesmar | Posted 11/3/2006 9:14:45 PM | message detail
No matter what, this proves Gordon Freeman is non-linear. Period.

How? What is Mega Man supposed to get on Sora if it's based off of that? Isn't it in the ballpark of what we have now? If anything this points towards Gordon's ranking in 2005 being accurate.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:15:02 PM | message detail
Why? What's he look like if we use MM through Ryu 2k5?

I'd rather not contemplate Mega Man being that pathetic for my sanity's sake.
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/3/2006 9:15:34 PM | message detail
I'm liking this up trend!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sora vs Mega Man - Bracket: MM - Vote: Sora (76/84)
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2006 9:15:44 PM | message detail
Go MM!

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Haste_2 | Posted 11/3/2006 9:16:10 PM | message detail
Well, I was trying to say that Sora/Gordon was a bad match to judge from earlier, since both Sora and Gordon seemed rather suspicious with their linearity in the past...we're not far into the match yet, though. I don't think Gordon will end up too far away from his 2K5 value, though, since I think Mega Man has dropped.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 11/3/2006 9:16:17 PM | message detail
This, in and of itself, is terrible. The fact that Snake will certainly be the favorite is great. I do think Mega Man will gain substantially during the night, and I have my doubts about whether or not the day vote will really hit him hard. We'll see, of course.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/3/2006 9:16:44 PM | message detail
At least Mega Man is doing... something
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Mega Man with 57.05%
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2006 9:16:49 PM | message detail
If this keeps up, then that means that Sora...won the board vote against Mega Man? Past those first couple seconds, anyway.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:17:56 PM | message detail
Sora having an edge with the board vote just perplexes me, especially given that it's freaking Mega Man. We've all heard tranny's tirades on how he's the board's most favored character by now !!
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2006 9:18:52 PM | message detail
Yeah, this is just...weird. If Sora doesn't gain in the next update, I'm throwing all previous trends out the window.

Which means MM obviously wins the day vote!

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/3/2006 9:19:51 PM | message detail
tranny's getting senile in his old age, you know that.
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CB5 Points: 79/84, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
Kegger9 | Posted 11/3/2006 9:20:06 PM | message detail
Mega Man is like Jerry Rice: was once great, but now he gets beaten by 6 year olds.


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what ever i always new bruce wayne was batman anyway - ertyu
Phoenix Wright will be a little weaker then King of All Cosmos. Just a little.
Yesmar | Posted 11/3/2006 9:20:11 PM | message detail
Assuming Sora gets 45% and basing Mega Man off of a 2005 Ryu, than you get Gordon with 23.10%,* keeping in mind that 2005 Ryu was possibly overrated due to Bowser/Snake.

*On Base Link
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
GrapefruitKing | Posted 11/3/2006 9:20:35 PM | message detail
underage character alert!
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Mega Man with 57.05%
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/3/2006 9:20:47 PM | message detail
From KamikazePotato Posted 11/4/2006 12:16:49 AM #319
If this keeps up, then that means that Sora...won the board vote against Mega Man? Past those first couple seconds, anyway.

More like won the early bracket vote surge. Board vote > early bracket voters > everything else. Casual bracket voters don't know about that silly method that TRE and Ngamer popularized to score insane early votes <_<

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2006 9:21:31 PM | message detail
Ah.

And MM seems to be stabilizing at 58%. Which is pretty bad, considering the day vote is still to come.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:22:02 PM | message detail
Yeah, I guess I could definitely see Sora getting a bit of a bracket vote surge, being the one seed and all. It looks like Mega Man will have this around 58% while we're still in the NPHours.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 11/3/2006 9:22:17 PM | message detail
If Mega Man manages to end at 58% and Snake = Mega Man, Riku gets 45.69% on Sora. Mega Man ending with less makes Sora look better with respect to Riku, and making Mega Man or Snake stronger makes Sora or Riku stronger, respectively.

So, how strong is Riku in comparison to Sora, do you think?
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/3/2006 9:23:05 PM | message detail
Why is this bad?

If Mega Man were to finish at 56, and then beat Snake like... 54 - 46 or something, how much would this put Sora above Yoshi?
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/3/2006 9:23:06 PM | message detail
MM isn't that bad with the day vote. Yeah, Sora will most likely take it, but it won't destroy him or anything.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sora vs Mega Man - Bracket: MM - Vote: Sora (76/84)
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2006 9:23:40 PM | message detail
I would expect Riku to be relatively close to Sora, myself. The fanbase just seems to prefer him over Sora.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:24:37 PM | message detail
Assuming Sora ends at 43% (very optimistic for Mega Man), Gordon Freeman gets 31% on Mega Man. He's projected to get 29.36% last year. And the higher Sora goes, the higher GF does.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/3/2006 9:25:48 PM | message detail
What percent will Sora need to get to get Phoenix over the fodder line?
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/3/2006 9:25:58 PM | message detail
MM isn't that bad with the day vote. Yeah, Sora will most likely take it, but it won't destroy him or anything.

He's been pretty unimpressive with it this year, as well as just being all together unimpressive. He got hit pretty damn hard against another KH2 character after all.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:26:13 PM | message detail
If Mega Man were to finish at 56, and then beat Snake like... 54 - 46 or something, how much would this put Sora above Yoshi?

Too much.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2006 9:26:39 PM | message detail
He's been pretty unimpressive with it this year, as well as just being all together unimpressive. He got hit pretty damn hard against another KH2 character after all.

lol weekdays and weekends

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Yesmar | Posted 11/3/2006 9:28:33 PM | message detail
Assuming Sora ends at 43% (very optimistic for Mega Man), Gordon Freeman gets 31% on Mega Man. He's projected to get 29.36% last year. And the higher Sora goes, the higher GF does.

If Sora does get that high, I would guess that Mega Man probably dropped some in popularity as well.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
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KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2006 9:30:46 PM | message detail
Mage Man above 58%.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/3/2006 9:31:19 PM | message detail
If Sora does get that high, I would guess that Mega Man probably dropped some in popularity as well.

Indeed. This isn't the same Mega Man who outdid Mario on Sephiroth.
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/3/2006 9:31:23 PM | message detail
60% update for MM! I hope it's a sign of things to come for the night vote.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sora vs Mega Man - Bracket: MM - Vote: Sora (76/84)
Kegger9 | Posted 11/3/2006 9:31:23 PM | message detail
****ing Mage Man


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what ever i always new bruce wayne was batman anyway - ertyu
Phoenix Wright will be a little weaker then King of All Cosmos. Just a little.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:33:00 PM | message detail
And if you want the specifics, Sora ending at 44% and Mega Man winning against Snake with 54% means that Sora beats Yoshi with 55.22% of the vote. Which means that he's gone from being doubled to being projected to have a decently close match with Snake, SFF be damned.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/3/2006 9:33:21 PM | message detail
From Master Moltar Posted 11/4/2006 12:31:23 AM #341
60% update for MM! I hope it's a sign of things to come for the night vote.

He's always been good with the night vote.

Anyway, why not bring this up: What should be the 'official' fodder line? Vyse failed at it. Just go with a 20.00% X-stat value or something?

liek vote plz

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:34:12 PM | message detail
Oh, and nice update by Mega Man there. If by 'nice', you mean 'what I was expecting him to be getting regularly at this point'.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 11/3/2006 9:34:33 PM | message detail
The character directly under Phoenix in the stats should be the fodder line.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/3/2006 9:34:41 PM | message detail
I'm sure that there's quite a few people who think of Kefka as the fodder line.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2006 9:34:49 PM | message detail
VFL was good until Vyse got SFF'd into oblivion. We need a set percent.

It depends. 20% in that year's stats, or 20% on BL?

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:35:28 PM | message detail
If we need a character it should be Kefka (though he's a lil' stronger than the line), but any less than 21 on BL says it for me.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/3/2006 9:36:11 PM | message detail
Uh, we've pretty much always just used 20% on BL...I don't see any need to change that.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig