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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 414

voltch | Posted 11/3/2006 9:20:22 AM | message detail
i wonder if megaman can do better on sora what snake managed last year.
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:20:49 AM | message detail
Unless of course the sprite is hurting Snake quite significantly, in which case, yes, Snake > Samus confirmed!!!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/3/2006 9:20:54 AM | message detail
i wonder if megaman can do better on sora what snake managed last year.

He won't.
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Supporter of Yoshi
KingBartz | Posted 11/3/2006 9:21:29 AM | message detail
no way, voltch
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 74/80 Today's pick: Solid Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:21:31 AM | message detail
If Mega Man matches Snake's percentage on Sora he's winning the main bracket, and it won't even be close.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Xuxon | Posted 11/3/2006 9:44:26 AM | message detail
with the exception of Sub-Zero = Kratos (?)

I pretty much just thought of it randomly. I sort of expected Sub-Zero to be around a 27 range, and noticed Kratos right there. If anything I think Auron's 4 pack might be a bit high still, as well as Mega Man's. Maybe setting Auron = Squall and adjusting Kratos to Sub-Zero instead would work better. Also, Luigi looks kind of high (above Bowser?), and Sora seems low, yet Gordon and Phoenix seem high enough already. Thus, me dreading all 3 of the upcoming matches for the oracle/spread betting.

One funny thing I noticed; both Ryu AND KOS-MOS appear strong in 2004, weak in 2005, and strong again in 2006. Very odd coincidence.
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Take off every sig.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/3/2006 10:00:56 AM | message detail
Preliminary stats through Yuna/Chun-Li:

Samus Aran – 41.69%
Princess Zelda – 34.98%
Tifa Lockhart – 33.57%
Aeris Gainsborough – 30.17%
Yuna – 29.56%
Rikku – 25.85%
Chun-Li – 23.15%
KOS-MOS – 23.14%
Princess Peach – 22.79%
Jill Valentine – 22.78%
Kairi – 21.57%
Claire Redfield – 20.67%
Lara Croft – 20.58%
Marle – 18.23%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 17.30%
The Boss – 17.09%
Ada Wong – 16.86%
Amy Rose – 16.00%
Ivy Valentine – 15.99%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
Kasumi – 14.47%
Terra Branford – 14.38%
Celes Chere – 13.30%
Joanna Dark – 12.98%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 12.93%
Roll – 12.24%
Sarah Kerrigan – 11.88%
Cortana – 10.32%
Carmen Sandiego – 9.74%
Alyx Vance – 9.24%
Jade – 8.13%
Princess Daisy – 7.70%

Go Yuna!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/3/2006 10:06:02 AM | message detail
And I'm very impressed by Snake's performance here against Yoshi. He's holding up very well against the day vote so far, too. Of course, this sorta calls the Devil Division into question again, but it just makes Vincent's boost from AC and then DoC look...rather big, especially considering what he's relying on to get that high.

I know people are still reluctant to call Snake the favorite against Mega Man, and people keep wanting to point back to their 2004 match, saying that Snake has a lot of ground to cover to beat him.

Yeah, he covered most of that ground last year, folks. There's not really any reason to see anything fishy in Mario/Crono, Mario/Snake, or Mega Man/Crono, so we can assume the proportions there to be accurate. He's got to make up 2.35% on Mega Man this year to win, and from the looks of things, he may not have to do it all himself by boosting. Honestly, unless Mega Man flatout kills Sora tomorrow, I'm calling Snake the favorite to win. Doesn't mean he will, but at least in my eyes, he will have earned that status.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/3/2006 10:06:35 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
neonreaper | Posted 11/3/2006 10:22:26 AM | message detail
Yoshi is not a dinosaur, he's a weenie
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Donny: Are they gonna hurt us, Walter?
Walter: No, Donny. These men are cowards.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/3/2006 11:03:22 AM | message detail
Just looking back at some other matches to see how much Snake could drop later. And noticed that Crono seems to hold the record so far for worst after-school drop off in %. And probably worst weekend drop off considering his match with Bowser too. It was even worse than Terra Vs. Zelda, which is what I would have thought would be the worst.

Well, I guess that means Snake's floor at this point is about 57%. I wonder if he can keep it at 58.

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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/3/2006 11:03:44 AM | message detail
And by record, I mean just this contest of course
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 11:16:23 AM | message detail
I'd say Snake's floor is 55%...and that's if he hasn't changed a bit and Yoshi has a Knuckles-esque day. 57%'s probably where this ends up.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
XIII_rocks | Posted 11/3/2006 11:51:46 AM | message detail
Snake has this. MM stands no chance for me. Then again, what Ryu did to MM gave us the signs anyway, but holy ****. Snake is just breaking Yoshi's face here - it's great. Hell, this could be down to Dante not being as strong as expected - DD overratedness - which means Vincent boosted massively...meaning Sonic is still in contention against Crono. Thank god. I was losing all hope after what he did to Bowser.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
AC2K6 Score: 64/68 Today: Tifa
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/3/2006 11:54:04 AM | message detail
BTW guys. How much do you think Snake will get on Sora next round?
At least we'll see how much the KHII boost has done for him.
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARSONICA
XIII_rocks | Posted 11/3/2006 11:54:47 AM | message detail
BTW, WTF @ Yuna's pred %. Did that many people expect Lara to take Yuna down as well? Or maybe Chun.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
AC2K6 Score: 64/68 Today: Tifa
XIII_rocks | Posted 11/3/2006 11:58:51 AM | message detail
(So basically, I can't see both bad NN results occuring. Fairly obvious that Snake losing to MM is a travesty, as is Crono > Sonic, but whatever. One or both isn't going to happen, so it's fine.)
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
AC2K6 Score: 64/68 Today: Tifa
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/3/2006 12:00:32 PM | message detail
Snake's a lock to defeat MM. I really don't know why it's being debated.
Crono and Sonic is 50/50. I don't get the underdog status that Sonic has either. >_<
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARSONICA
BDawg | Posted 11/3/2006 12:00:57 PM | message detail
Eh where did Snake peak cause it looks like this is going below 59 in a hurry.
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Should I start running now?
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/3/2006 12:13:12 PM | message detail
Crono and Sonic is 50/50. I don't get the underdog status that Sonic has either. >_<

Probably cause he lost to the guy who is "unquestionably" going to lose to Snake?
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
__Smurf__ | Posted 11/3/2006 12:14:48 PM | message detail
Pre boost.
Basically last year Sonic was 2000 votes behind Crono. Think that's unbrigeable? Especially since a Sonic Boost is likely?
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARSONICA
Draco1214 | Posted 11/3/2006 12:19:49 PM | message detail
52% on Vincent does not inspire much confidence for the Sonic upset.
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Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003
MegatokyoEd | Posted 11/3/2006 12:22:12 PM | message detail
We have absolutely no idea how much Vincent boosted. It's impossible to tell if Sonic's win was impressive or not.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/3/2006 12:22:18 PM | message detail
Neither does the fact that there have been no kinks in Crono's armor thus far. I keep waiting for the guy to fall, but he gets in every year and kicks ass. Amazing.

It's all just Smurf babble, anyway. Man, I remember how angry I was when Samus beat Sonic in 2002 (at the time, I didn't care about Samus). I can only imagine Smurf's reaction. o__O
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/3/2006 12:24:57 PM | message detail
Oh, and as someone who has MM over the main bracket......he's getting owned by Snake next round. I'd say Yoshi at least equals Sora this year, if not beating him entirely. I doubt MM puts 58-59 on Sora tommorow, but I hope to be pleasantly surprised!
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/3/2006 12:26:23 PM | message detail
I doubt MM puts 58-59 on Sora tommorow, but I hope to be pleasantly surprised!

Unless he gets another bad picture, Mega Man will do fine. If he actually gets a MMX sprite or something, I definitely see him breaking 60%.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/3/2006 12:28:06 PM | message detail
I don't understand why people already are saying that Megaman will get owned by Snake. Megaman got 68% on Yoshi, while Snake can't even get 60. At least wait until Sora gets 45% on Megaman....
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Supporter of Yoshi
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/3/2006 12:28:30 PM | message detail
I kind of doubt Ryu>Sora though.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/3/2006 12:29:44 PM | message detail
Sora will not get or approach 45% on Mega Man. The guy can't even blow out fodder; do you really think 45% of the voters like him more than freaking Mega Man?
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/3/2006 12:30:36 PM | message detail
And that wasn't addressed towards Zylo, but to anyone who actually thinks Sora can muster such a high percentage.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/3/2006 12:39:50 PM | message detail
And now Yoshi has above 41%
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Supporter of Yoshi
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 11/3/2006 12:41:20 PM | message detail
Keep it over 58.04, Snake!
XIII_rocks | Posted 11/3/2006 12:57:12 PM | message detail
Sora will not get or approach 45% on Mega Man. The guy can't even blow out fodder; do you really think 45% of the voters like him more than freaking Mega Man?

If we judged contests on how well characters blow out fodder, MM and Snake would be the winners. Besides, MM failed to blow out Axel, so...

45% is pretty much Sora's ceiling, but he can definitely get close to it. I'm fairly confident in him outdoing Ryu, in any case.
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AC2K6 Score: 76/80 Today: Snake
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/3/2006 1:13:19 PM | message detail
I don't understand why people already are saying that Megaman will get owned by Snake. Megaman got 68% on Yoshi, while Snake can't even get 60.

Feel free to believe Mega Man's performance was legit and Axel could give Yoshi the fight of his life.
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Sweet Sixteen: (6) Yoshi
Master Moltar | Posted 11/3/2006 1:15:13 PM | message detail
Yoshi's chopping percentage. Still, it looks like Snake can keep it over 57%, unless Yoshi cuts all the way through the night.

Yeah, if MM doesn't satisfy me tommorrow, I'm jumping ship.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Snake vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Yoshi (72/80)
BDawg | Posted 11/3/2006 1:18:07 PM | message detail
Snake feel asleep during afterschool vote.
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Should I start running now?
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/3/2006 1:36:07 PM | message detail
Saying Mega Man is weak because he didn't blow out Axel is like saying Zelda is weak because she didn't blow out Samus. They are both contenders for the main bracket going up against near elites.
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 11/3/2006 1:38:08 PM | message detail
Who? Mega Man and Axel?
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
trannyscience | Posted 11/3/2006 1:44:22 PM | message detail
I think this could dip into the 56's if Yoshi keeps ripping percentage at this rate. love that day vote.

also lovin' the Snake bandwagoning. Mega Man has gone from a lock to beat Snake to a lock to lose to Snake. that match is a tossup.
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zizzy
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/3/2006 1:46:35 PM | message detail
A lock? Nobody is jumping ship to saying Snake is a lock. Heck, most people in this topic are reluctant to even give him favorite status. The only one really saying he's a lock is the Mega Man basher.
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Sweet Sixteen: (6) Yoshi
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/3/2006 1:47:22 PM | message detail
Yoshi by the hour:

16:00 | 44.58%
15:00 | 41.38%
14:00 | 41.78%
13:00 | 40.59%
12:00 | 41.26%
11:00 | 41.00%
10:00 | 41.82%
09:00 | 40.96%
08:00 | 43.24%
07:00 | 41.61%
06:00 | 39.92%
05:00 | 37.98%
04:00 | 39.96%
03:00 | 39.39%
02:00 | 39.60%
01:00 | 40.39%

He's looking to be solidly around 46% for this hour, too. Yay after school vote?
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
trannyscience | Posted 11/3/2006 1:47:29 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks | Posted 11/3/2006 2:51:46 PM | message detail
Snake has this. MM stands no chance for me.

I'm pretty sure that's not who you're talking about.
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zizzy
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/3/2006 1:48:13 PM | message detail
Okay, two people, both of whom were on the Snake bandwagon before the contest started anyway.
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Sweet Sixteen: (6) Yoshi
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/3/2006 1:48:15 PM | message detail
From SmurfFAQs
Who? Mega Man and Axel?

Zelda and Mega Man.
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
BDawg | Posted 11/3/2006 1:50:38 PM | message detail
I hope the male final is Snake/Crono just to see who actually gets the afterschool vote. Or if voting just ceases at 4 pm EST.
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Should I start running now?
trannyscience | Posted 11/3/2006 1:51:21 PM | message detail
a lot of others have called Snake the favourite in the match as well - if anything, Mega Man is the underdog at this point. I'm not against this line of thinking at all, but to say that MM is still considered the favourite in here seems wrong to me. I haven't seen too many people make an argument for Mega Man lately, mostly because there's not much you can say.

let's wait until tomorrow before crowning a favourite. to me it's a tossup.
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zizzy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/3/2006 1:53:17 PM | message detail
My calculations project solid Snake to fall to 57.85% by 8 PM. From there, it could either stay the same or drop a bit more. But it probably won't fall too far from that.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
LegendarySnake | Posted 11/3/2006 1:54:04 PM | message detail
Like I said before, Snake doesn't have a lot of ground to make up to overcome and it looks like Mega Man is even helping him out a little by dropping. Unless Mega Man whips Sora into shape, I'm going to consider Snake the favorite. As I said, it doesn't mean he's going to win, but I'm just saying if you ask me who I think is going to win, I'm going to say Snake. He's just looked more impressive every round.
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Solid Snake's Road to the Character Battle V Championship
Sweet Sixteen: (6) Yoshi
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/3/2006 1:54:38 PM | message detail
I have always been on the Snake > Mega Man bandwagon. Probably because my bracket has Snake > Sora.
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/3/2006 1:54:59 PM | message detail
I'd still say MM is the favorite at this point. Axel is untested, and we've seen all the other kH characters impress save Sora, and we don't know what the hell is up with Ryu.

Tommorrow is definitely the final test for Mega Man. That's where I think the favorite status for Snake/MM should be decided.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Snake vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Yoshi (72/80)