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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 414

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:20:00 PM | message detail
Yoshi rocked face in the original Mario Golf, and speed characters like Yoshi are easily the best in Mario Tennis. Plus stuff like Mario Party where the characters don't matter. The only game I don't use him in is SSBM.
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:20:25 PM | message detail
Oh man, I got my queues mixed up.
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 11:20:44 PM | message detail
On the contrary, even if Snake ends up beating Yoshi by 58-59% and still loses to Mega Man (who I still consider the favorite), I take Yoshi > Ryu every time. Ryu didn't have one bad match, he had *three* bad matches -- Rikku, Bowser, and Kratos. That's my way of "screwing the stats".
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
creativename | Posted 11/2/2006 11:22:09 PM | message detail
All of Ryu's good years shouldn't outweigh one bad match.

Bad year you mean.

As for Ryu/Yoshi, I really don't know who'd win this year.


Detest...Yoshi...? I don't inderstand....

Neither do I. Unless someone doesn't like cute things...?

Yoshi was a lot of fun in SMW. But then, SMW was just pure fun. Great game.
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zwong1 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:22:48 PM | message detail
Actually Ryu has 3 bad matches ever since 2004.
He scored 55% on Rikku and Rikku is a lowcarder to low midcarder at that time.
He lost to bowser at the score of 59-41.
He got only 57% on Kratos and Ryu in the prime could possibly get 68-70% on him.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
transience | Posted 11/2/2006 11:23:35 PM | message detail
"thing" is about the best way to describe Yoshi. I have no problem with the thing, but it's barely a character.
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xyzzy
creativename | Posted 11/2/2006 11:24:11 PM | message detail
I wouldn't hold the Kratos match against Ryu.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:24:52 PM | message detail
He is a dinosaur, thank you very much. Yoshi's saddle has more character than everyone in this bracket. I mean...have you even played SMRPG?!
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 11:26:51 PM | message detail
Yeah, Yoshi wasn't only mentally challenged in SMRPG, he was diabetic and needed cookies more than EVA, not to mention couldn't do jack without Mario.

And Snake breaks 60%! Take that, arbitrary milestone !!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
zwong1 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:27:00 PM | message detail
Snake finally breaks 60%. Keep going Snake, you have to build up to mid 60 before losing your pecentage to Yoshi in the morning.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:28:26 PM | message detail
Dude, Yoshi totally had a monopoly on the cookie scene through rigging the races. Does Snake have that kind of business savvy? I think not!
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 11:31:26 PM | message detail
Just because Snake lives in a box doesn't mean that he has to. It's a choice thing, dammit!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:40:42 PM | message detail
In case I wasn't being clear enough, outside of Yoshi's Island I detest Yoshi. And this is coming from a guy who has Mario as his #2 character and Bowser as his #12.

Snake is a talentless hack! a pawn of the government! At least Yoshi decides his own destiny! The whole Mario thing is an elaborate coverup- the sort of thing Snake is used to being on the receiving end! If you don't like Yoshi, you clearly don't lead a happy life; it's that simple.

And I forget about Rikku all the time; for some reason I forget that Bowser/Ryu wasn't a Round One Match. As far as Kratos, didn't he have a reason to increase or something? I don't really remember/care.


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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
zwong1 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:43:54 PM | message detail
Not even with the power of TP,MGS4,SSBB and Kh can help increase Kratos to such a extend.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
zwong1 | Posted 11/3/2006 1:17:32 AM | message detail
I mean extent in my above post.

Btw, Snake is approaching 60.5% now.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
zwong1 | Posted 11/3/2006 3:43:40 AM | message detail
It looks like Yoshi day votes reinforcement is coming.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/3/2006 3:48:41 AM | message detail
Okay... Snake is on roids and should be considered the favorite against MM.

ARE YOU HAPPY NOW!?!?!?

That or there was massive DD overration.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Gooper Blooper | Posted 11/3/2006 3:51:02 AM | message detail
Sweet holy mother of God.

Everybody in the main bracket besides Snake is so screwed
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face it cjay i have the high ground i have powend you - ertyu
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/3/2006 3:52:50 AM | message detail
Well let's not get carried away. Samus would have the doubling right now.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
zwong1 | Posted 11/3/2006 3:52:51 AM | message detail
HoorayProxies, i am very tired to talk about Megaman vs Snake right now. Let wait until Sora vs Megaman then we discuss these matter again. I am not surprise if Megaman does beat Snake.

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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/3/2006 3:55:20 AM | message detail
If you haven't noticed I've been one of the biggest supporters of MM > Snake up until this match. Unless Dante and Squall are horribly overrated last year, Snake is looking prime to rock faces. Sure the morning vote is about to hit, and we still have the after-school to take this down. But it Snake got 57.5+ I was going to give Snake a shot. 60% at 7AM? There's no sense in denying Snake looks better anymore.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/3/2006 3:55:50 AM | message detail
I doubt Sora VS Megaman will tell us anything. Snake might end up doing 10% worse on Yoshi than what Megaman got and Megaman will do about 10% worse on Sora than what Snake did. >_>

So um, Yoshi VS Sora, who wins >_>
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Supporter of Yoshi
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/3/2006 3:58:06 AM | message detail
Yeah, and Sora/MM is just going to make MM look worse anyway. Sora is going to be leagues and leagues above his numbers from last year, and is definitely perform better than he did against Snake on MM. Unless of course MM pulls one out of his ass, but there's no reason for that.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/3/2006 3:59:02 AM | message detail
Oh and Yoshi/Sora... gah. Pre-contest I would have said Sora, post first round, Sora.... after Yoshi > Dante? Eww... it's close.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
cyko | Posted 11/3/2006 4:08:07 AM | message detail
hmph. been pretty busy lately, but i had to check in and say that Mega Man is in trouble. i've been increasingly nervous about Snake's chance at the upset since he pounded Squall - but holding up against Yoshi with the sprite pic? unless Yoshi drops him below 57% (which is still possible, i suppose), Snake is looking very good. the prize winner of this contest will be decided by Snake vs. Mega Man and the Battle Royale.

as for Sora vs. Yoshi - before the contest, i definitely would've taken Sora due to the potential KH2 boost. (heck, i almost took Riku over Yoshi. ALMOST.) at this point, i'm still inclined to think that Sora pulls that one off, since Riku already did so well against Yoshi.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
zwong1 | Posted 11/3/2006 4:50:27 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Who Cares? | Posted 11/3/2006 5:07:51 AM | message detail
As far as Kratos, didn't he have a reason to increase or something? I don't really remember/care.

His game doubled his sales in the past year. I too don't know why people are holding the Kratos match against Ryu, once I heard about the sales increase, you'd be crazy to think he stayed constant from last year.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Failed! She should've stayed away from the summoner!
*Go play Tales of the Abyss*
Master Moltar | Posted 11/3/2006 5:13:42 AM | message detail
Impressive, at this rate, Snake shouldn't fall below 57% once the day vote hits.

Well, maybe I shouldn't say that. I'm pretty curious to see how Snake will do later. Still, these results are good for Snake going up against MM.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Snake vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Yoshi (72/80)
Tediz247 | Posted 11/3/2006 5:22:18 AM | message detail
Mega Man is so screwed
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 11/3/2006 5:29:13 AM | message detail
Snake is going up in percentage with the morning vote? o.O
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/3/2006 5:54:20 AM | message detail
No.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Xuxon | Posted 11/3/2006 6:39:08 AM | message detail
the prize winner of this contest will be decided by Snake vs. Mega Man and the Battle Royale.

And Crono vs Samus. Other upsets are possible at this point, but these are the real tossups left.
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Take off every sig.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/3/2006 6:43:20 AM | message detail
Am I the only one that has Sonic over Snake in the male bracket finals?
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
KingBartz | Posted 11/3/2006 7:04:46 AM | message detail
MM, I do as well.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 74/80 Today's pick: Solid Snake
Haste_2 | Posted 11/3/2006 7:40:18 AM | message detail
Judging by the boost Riku got from KH2 and his pitiful role, and considering Sora would've beaten Riku well over 55/45 last year, I would take Sora over Yoshi.

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yoshifan823 | Posted 11/3/2006 7:48:04 AM | message detail
It's as if, all of a sudden, everyone forgot that Sonic exists at all. SONIC > CRONO!
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*Yoshifan*
Haste_2 | Posted 11/3/2006 7:56:47 AM | message detail
Well, that's because Crono and Sonic have performed exactly as expectated...well, at least based on what we know now.

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charmander6000 | Posted 11/3/2006 8:17:14 AM | message detail
Match LIV: (1) Sora vs. (2) Mega Man

Previous Matches

Sora
Defeated Tingle, 75.61% - 24.39%
Defeated Gordon Freeman, 63.93% - 36.07%

Mega Man
Defeated Axel, 69.87% - 30.13%
Defeated Ryu, 58.04% - 41.96%

Analysis:

Last round Sora did about what was expected of him against Freeman, which means no win against Mega Man so much for KH2. For the second time Mega Man went under expectations getting under what Bowser got last year. Maybe Ryu had a bad year, but anyways this is strike two and if he underperforms again I think Snake should be the favorite going into the match.

Since Freeman was in Mega Man’s 4-pack last year and by using what Sora got on him he is expected to lose to Mega Man in a 59/41 match, but that is if Mega Man was as strong as he was last year, which is still possible at this point.

I’m still a believer that Ryu may have been underrated last year. Mega Man isn’t that type of character to magically drop off for no reason, but then again both Sonic and Snake have shown to have had years so maybe this is Mega Man’s. Even if that is true Mega Man’s underperformance against Ryu can’t be all him unless you think Mega Man would 57/43 himself from last year.

I think Mega Man has a great chance at beating Sora as bad as he did Ryu and he would have to, to look good for the third match between Mega Man and Solid Snake. If Mega Man goes and fails to break 55% on Sora then I think Solid Snake should be made the favorite going into the match.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mega Man over Sora

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mega Man wins, 57.83% - 42.17%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Xuxon | Posted 11/3/2006 8:19:07 AM | message detail
My updated (unadjusted for SFF this contest) x-stats, based on:
2005 Crono
2005 Sonic
2005 Gordon Freeman
2005 Bowser adjusted down to 2006 Bowser, then based on this, constant:
...Rikku
...Chun-Li
...Kirby
2004 Ryu
2004 KOS-MOS
2006 Sub-Zero = 2006 Kratos
2006 Dante = 2006 Kirby
2006 Peach gets 37% on 2006 Zero (what Hayabusa got last year on Zero, the weirdest one by far, but it feels right IMO)
Yoshi ends at 42% on Snake

Crono - 39.87%
Samus - 39.77%
Solid Snake - 39.12%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 38.50%
Mega Man - 38.13%
Vincent Valentine- 36.89%
Zelda - 36.62%
Ganondorf - 34.98%
Tifa Lockheart - 34.37%
Luigi - 34.07%
Auron - 34.00%
Bowser - 33.94%
Squall Leonhart- 33.18%
Yoshi - 32.86%
Kirby - 32.50%
Dante - 32.50%
Ryu - 32.00%
Aeris Gainsborough - 31.59%
Sora - 31.58%
Zero - 31.54%
Leon Kennedy - 30.24%
Yuna - 29.55%
Riku - 29.44%
Sub-Zero - 27.45%
Kratos - 27.45%
Master Chief - 26.93%
Prince of Persia - 24.89%
Rikku - 24.66%
KOS-MOS - 24.23%
Alucard - 24.20%
Princess Peach - 23.34%
Jill Valentine - 23.33%
Chun-Li - 23.15%
Axel - 22.98%
Gordon Freeman - 22.78%
Ryu Hayabusa - 22.62%
Captain Falcon - 20.60%
Lara Croft - 20.58%
Kairi - 20.58%
Claire Redfield - 19.72%
Marle - 19.09%
Phoenix Wright- 19.04%
Tidus - 18.57%
Sheena Fujibayashi - 17.72%
The Boss - 17.49%
Amy Rose - 16.75%
Ivy - 16.37%
Ada Wong - 16.08%
Tingle - 15.40%
Terra - 15.05%
CATS - 14.82%
Kasumi - 14.47%
Nidoran F - 14.44%
Soma Cruz - 13.97%
Celes - 13.62%
Joanna Dark - 12.97%
Kerrigan - 12.43%
Lenneth Valkyrie - 12.33%
Roll - 12.24%
Cortana - 10.32%
Carmen Sandiego - 10.20%
Alyx Vance - 9.24%
Princess Daisy - 7.89%
Jade - 7.76%
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Take off every sig.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/3/2006 8:25:33 AM | message detail
I don't see how the sprite would make any difference. His face is in the background.

I have a feeling what we're seeing is Snake's normal strength today, but it will look impressive since it's the sprite round.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 8:29:55 AM | message detail
I like how everyone's jumping ship because Snake's face is in the background. While there were a few singing that tune beforehand (myself included), I certainly didn't hear this out of most of you pre-match.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 11/3/2006 8:35:37 AM | message detail
I like those stats. I think you adjusted them every way I would have, with the exception of Sub-Zero = Kratos (?) (not that the number is wrong, just a random thing to do)
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/3/2006 8:37:40 AM | message detail
Phoenix Wright- 19.04%
Tidus - 18.57%


And all was Wright with the world

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 11/3/2006 8:37:52 AM | message detail
Kirby - 32.50%
Dante - 32.50%



...




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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 8:40:57 AM | message detail
I like those stats with a few exceptions, like I really doubt Sora gets outperformed by Ryu on MM. And PoP being at nearly 25 on BL warms my heart (to say nothing of Snake's placing! <_<) Very nice.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/3/2006 9:16:12 AM | message detail
Predict this based on those stats:

Yoshi
Ryu

Dante
Kirby

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
KamikazePotato | Posted 11/3/2006 9:17:19 AM | message detail
This match makes me think that Snake is the main contender for the entire contest at this point.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/3/2006 9:18:29 AM | message detail
Ryu > Kirby, then again I'm a big SF freak. >_>
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Supporter of Yoshi
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/3/2006 9:19:22 AM | message detail
Yoshi > Dante...Dante/Kirby is the only difficult match for me.

This match makes me think that Snake is the main contender for the entire contest at this point.

Maybe if he ended at this percentage, but nah.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
KingBartz | Posted 11/3/2006 9:20:15 AM | message detail
Snake is a contender.

So is Sonic and Crono.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 74/80 Today's pick: Solid Snake