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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 414

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/2/2006 1:17:33 PM | message detail
I got nuthin'



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games (down for now, so here's a new link):
http://transience.paragonsigma.com/top100.txt

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php
Criona | Posted 11/2/2006 1:17:59 PM | message detail
first
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{O,o}:O RLY?::::::::{ò,ó}:YA RLY!
/)__)::::::::::::::::::::::::(__(\:::::::::::::
Zylo the wolf | Posted 11/2/2006 1:18:29 PM | message detail
Yoshi > Snake
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Supporter of Chun Li
THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/2/2006 1:18:55 PM | message detail
Solid Snake > Battle Royale
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
KingBartz | Posted 11/2/2006 1:19:00 PM | message detail
That's what your mom said last night Ulti.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 70/76 Today's pick: Yuna
creativename | Posted 11/2/2006 10:09:09 PM | message detail
And it seems as though my random prediction of Snake impressing in all his matches and MM disappointing in all of his is just buildup to a big upset when Mega Man beats Snake

I too was thinking this earlier in the contest.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 10:17:09 PM | message detail
The only thing Zelda impressing in all her matches and Aeris disappointing in all of hers led up to was Zelda routing Aeris from start to finish. Superstition isn't particularly persuasive.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
swirIdude | Posted 11/2/2006 10:17:56 PM | message detail
See this is why you need to let me make stats topics. I would've had the Meltman reference ready!
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ENTER THE KAIBA CAVE!
XERD_003SS | Posted 11/2/2006 10:19:12 PM | message detail
Mega Man > Snake
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Currently Playing: Wild Arms 4, Tales of the Abyss
creativename | Posted 11/2/2006 10:21:26 PM | message detail
I'd love to see Mega Man beat Snake by less than 1000 votes. Mega Man putting Snake in his place one last time pre-Brawl.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
FastFalcon05 | Posted 11/2/2006 10:25:59 PM | message detail
If Snake winds up lower than Mega Man/Ryu, for me, that's enough to still be confident in Mega Man's victory.

Also, this match isn't over, and with Snake/Yoshi we do need to see the end result before we start making predictions. Snake could go up a lot more, and Yoshi could take it down that much more in the day. I'm not hopping on the Snake > Mega Man bandwagon just yet; it will take a lot to reverse two consecutive losses to Mega Man, and I don't think he's displayed that enough yet.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
SHINE GET 64 | Posted 11/2/2006 10:27:06 PM | message detail
Mega Man over Snake until proven otherwise!
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Basch is sooo sexy!
http://www.galbadiax.com/ff12/wallpaper/basch-1024.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 10:35:25 PM | message detail
Mega Man got 58.04% on Ryu, a constant Mega Man is expected to get 57.35% on Yoshi through Dante 2k5. Snake in no way needs to match MM's percentage on Ryu to beat him, especially if you think this picture affects him in any way.

And on another note, Yoshi would dismantle Ryu.
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
zwong1 | Posted 11/2/2006 10:42:19 PM | message detail
Yeah, Karma Hunter is correct. Dante of last year is much stronger than Ryu and all of us have already witness Yoshi beating Dante so Yoshi would probably dismantle Ryu if they ever meet. Don't tell me that Ryu of 2006 has recovered in strength, Ryu in his prime could probably get 68-70% on Kratos but Ryu of 2006 only gets 57% on Kratos.

Megaman got 58% on Ryu.

Snake may possibly get 59% on Yoshi at the end of the day and it is a establish fact that Snake already got 57.6% on Squall.

Squall is near elite and is much stronger than Ryu.

Yoshi is a highcarder and is too much stronger than Ryu.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 11/2/2006 10:43:08 PM | message detail
Man, I just realized my flaw with Aeris was -12 points. I'm officially dead. =(
---
New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees!
# 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 10:45:11 PM | message detail
Yeah, that Aeris upset was a major one for me...or so I thought it was going to be, I still can't believe my bracket has Zelda. I really hope I still have Cloud > Link, because if it happens I'm going to be majorly pissed.

...though in actuality, all I really need is Snake > Mega Man to happen to put me in contention for a prize or at least Top 50. I want to win though!
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
zwong1 | Posted 11/2/2006 10:45:50 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter, what is your points now.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/2/2006 10:46:10 PM | message detail
I really hope I still have Cloud > Link

I want to win though!


Man, they contradict each other!

---
"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 10:46:37 PM | message detail
I'm at 76 right now.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
zwong1 | Posted 11/2/2006 10:52:22 PM | message detail
At this rate, Snake can possibly get up to 61% before dropping to mid 59 in the morning and afternoon. Afterwards, second night comes and Snake rise up to 60+.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 10:53:01 PM | message detail
Nah, Snake'll probably end up with something like 57.50%.
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 10:58:25 PM | message detail
Pretty optimistic predictions here. I think Snake's gotten better at the day vote, but I doubt he keeps it above what constant Mega Man's projected to (but he doesn't need to -- sprite round, remember! ^_^). We all saw what Bowser did to him.
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/2/2006 10:59:25 PM | message detail
I think Snake's going to get pretty hard with the day vote, but I suppose this is as good a test as any to test Snake's "new" day vote.

---
"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
zwong1 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:00:35 PM | message detail
Sorry for my lame prediction. Looks like i have to agree with all of you that Snake will probably get mid 57% to 58% at the end of the day.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:00:38 PM | message detail
Man, I'm so happy with Snake right now. My trigger finger is happy, too, and I figure it's as good a time as any for a Noble 9 upset, hah!
---
I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
zwong1 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:03:50 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter, i am sorry but which constant Megaman are you talking about. 2005 or 2006.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
__hiei__ | Posted 11/2/2006 11:04:47 PM | message detail
So,What do you people think about Yoshi/Bowser?

not counting SFF obviously,who is stronger? I'd say bowser.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:05:40 PM | message detail
Stat-wise, Bowser should be stronger. But in my mind, everything tells me there's no reason why Bowser should be.
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
zwong1 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:05:41 PM | message detail
My prediction is Bowser will probably break 51-52% on Yoshi.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 11:05:42 PM | message detail
2005, obviously. We can't use a "2006 Mega Man" because we don't have final stats yet. The best we can do for 2006 is adjust through a prior Ryu or Kratos for now.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 11:08:54 PM | message detail
Yoshi is getting his ass whipped 60-40 while Bowser was at 55-45 two hours in...and that was in the thick of the night vote, while we're just getting out of the Nintendo Power Hours now. And I don't care if this is a possibly stronger Snake, both were in the sprite round, although Snake does have his mug shot with Yoshi. They've already faced directly in 2005 when Bowser humiliated him, and Bowser has always looked more impressive.

Bowser > Yoshi. The extent may be debated, but there's no denying it.
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 11/2/2006 11:09:41 PM | message detail
speaking of which, feel free to lol at these numbers:

Samus - 50.00
Rikku - 31.00
Kairi - 25.87
Claire - 24.79
Ada Wong - 20.22
Nidoran F - 18.15
Lenneth - 15.50
Jade - 9.75

Tifa - 50.00
Peach - 33.95
Jill Valentine - 33.94
Sheena - 25.77
The Boss - 25.45
Ivy - 23.82
Celes - 19.81
Daisy - 11.48

Zelda - 50.00
Aeris - 43.13
KOS-MOS - 33.08
Marle - 26.07
Amy Rose - 22.88
Terra - 20.55
Sarah Kerrigan - 16.98
Carmen Sandiego - 13.92

Yuna - 50.00
Chun Li - 39.16
Lara Croft - 34.82
Kasumi - 24.48
Joanna Dark - 21.95
Roll - 20.70
Cortana - 17.46
Alyx Vance - 15.63

I'm loving Amy Rose > Terra and Lara Croft > Joanna Dark by 13%.
---
xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:10:12 PM | message detail
Oh, there's no doubt that Bowser would win, but I just can't figure out why that's the case.
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 11:11:01 PM | message detail
*Bowser and Yoshi faced off in 2003, excuse me

And...Bowser's just cooler than Yoshi. It also doesn't hurt that the strongest Mario games don't feature Yoshi...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
__hiei__ | Posted 11/2/2006 11:12:08 PM | message detail
Amy rose being at that place reminds me that knuckles or shadow could easily beat 90% of the female bracket.and that's enough for me to never want a female bracket again >_> (unless it's a separate tourney)
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:12:21 PM | message detail
Bowser cooler than Yoshi? Blasphemy, I say! I blame Yoshi's Story for his lack of strength.
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/2/2006 11:13:29 PM | message detail
When compared to Yoshi, Bowser is better at night and worse during the day.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 11:13:48 PM | message detail
Meh, Yoshi's Story was only made because of the success that SMW2: Yoshi's Island enjoyed, and that's the only reason I've ever voted for the dino. His one shining moment...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
zwong1 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:14:45 PM | message detail
What is Sora projected to get on Megaman assuming constant Gordon Freeman.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:15:00 PM | message detail
Yoshi may not have his own games, but he's always the first character picked in any sort of Mario multiplayer game. At least where I'm from. Seriously, who doesn't like Yoshi? (ExTha doesn't count)
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
transience | Posted 11/2/2006 11:15:55 PM | message detail
I always pick Luigi! Yoshi sucks.
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xyzzy
__hiei__ | Posted 11/2/2006 11:16:42 PM | message detail
so,assuming Snake vs Crono happened tomorrow and you were to make a prediction,what would be your guess?

51-49 in Crono's favor for me.
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 11:16:44 PM | message detail
In case I wasn't being clear enough, outside of Yoshi's Island I detest Yoshi. And this is coming from a guy who has Mario as his #2 character and Bowser as his #12.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:16:59 PM | message detail
You're just bitter because someone else grabs Yoshi before you do. Don't deny it !!
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
FastFalcon05 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:17:18 PM | message detail
Wow, I was just looking back; Bowser/Snake was close, pretty cool.

Yoshi is no Bowser, though, and their matchup said as much. I'm one of the biggest Yoshi fans, but even I have realistic expectations. Yoshi beating Dante was really the perfect opponent for Yoshi; probably slightly above what most people though him capable, but he still pulled through. He isn't going to be challenging Snake, but not every character has to be a noble nine breaker to be interesting. If this matchup ends similar to Mega/Ryu, like I said before, that is enough for me (for Mega > Snake), despite what the stats say. I guess that means I have completely illogical faith in Ryu, but I really wouldn't take Yoshi over him. Bowser had a good year last year, Ryu didn't. Maybe sometimes we really do carry the stats too far. All of Ryu's good years shouldn't outweigh one bad match.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:18:14 PM | message detail
Detest...Yoshi...? I don't inderstand....
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
transience | Posted 11/2/2006 11:18:16 PM | message detail
nah, Yoshi's like a beginner character to me. he's easy to use but ends up sucking when you get good. that's how he is in SMK anyway, which is about the only Mario spinoff I ever play.
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xyzzy
zwong1 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:18:34 PM | message detail
If Crono vs Snake happened tomorrow, i would still pick Snake but i know Crono probably will win in a close match though.
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I am a Singaporean and I hope Snake will beat Megaman.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 11:18:42 PM | message detail
Inderstand, undertand. Whatever. That's probably my queue to go to sleep.
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 24/169
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
transience | Posted 11/2/2006 11:19:14 PM | message detail
undertand? queue?
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xyzzy