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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 413

KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 7:23:50 PM | message detail
NIDORAN F > SNAKE CONFIRMED
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CB5 Points: 71/76, Current Oracle placement: 24/165
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/2/2006 7:24:15 PM | message detail
I should also probably mention that I took Samus > Seph in the ToC last year.

darn you mario
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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/2/2006 7:25:19 PM | message detail
I should also probably mention that I took Samus > Seph in the ToC last year.

I laughed!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/2/2006 7:27:21 PM | message detail
Almost as hilarious as that time Bowser beat Crono!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/2/2006 7:28:16 PM | message detail
Remember that time I had Bowser over Crono in my bracket and even in my Crew write-up?

Oh, man, me neither !!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2006 7:30:33 PM | message detail
only because Leon made your boy look bad enough that even you couldn't get on the upset train!

when I see that you won't jump on an upset, I know we're all good
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zizzy
HoorayProxies | Posted 11/2/2006 7:32:43 PM | message detail
Remember that time your bracket got eliminated before mine every contest!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
charmander6000 | Posted 11/2/2006 7:58:12 PM | message detail
Match LIII: (1) Solid Snake vs. (6) Yoshi

Previous Matches

Solid Snake
Defeated Soma Cruz, 82.15% - 17.85%
Defeated Squall Leonhart, 57.59% - 42.41%

Yoshi
Defeated Riku, 55.20% - 44.80%
Defeated Dante Sparda, 50.55% - 49.45%

Analysis:

Last round Snake showed that he was a contender to not only upset Mega Man, but to take the whole bracket by beating Squall worse than what most people thought. Even with the odds against him Yoshi rose up and was able to beat Dante letting him only get the lead briefly during the ends of Yoshi’s worst time.

The problem with round 3 on the male half is that it is so predictable. Snake, Sonic and Crono all probably had harder opponents in round 2 than they do this round and even though I think Sora would outperform Ryu I don’t think he has much of a chance against Mega Man. Keeping Dante constant with Squall would make this match a 60/40 affair, but Yoshi does have one advantage going into the match.

As you all know this is the sprite round and if you are reading this then you’d probably know that Snake tends to do really bad during this round. If you look at the match picture all you see is a bunch of blue pixels going against a very nicely done Yoshi. The only thing that might save Snake from suffering as bad as he usually does is that his background has his face on it. In 2k3 Snake didn’t suffer with Solid **** against Ryu and the only difference between that picture and the others was that he had his face in the background which was recognizable. What I don’t get is why does Snake underperform with his crappy match picture, isn’t he popular enough for it not to matter? Maybe he gets a badass boost from the pictures I don’t know.

I think with the whole picture thing Yoshi will be able to outdo Squall’s performance, which would be very nice since I like Yoshi. Even with this bad picture there is no way Yoshi will win where Bowser failed, but at least Snake was able to get the sprite round out of the way before his match against Mega Man.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Solid Snake over Yoshi

charmander6000’s Prediction: Solid Snake wins, 56.26% - 43.74%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 8:13:28 PM | message detail
Uh, why am I seeing so many 56-57%+ predictions for Snake? I admit that's more or less what I'm predicting, but I freely admit that's out of fanboyism. I'd take Yoshi to flatten Ryu (and no, not with an overperformance !!) so unless you think Snake is just going to coast past MM without even a fight that just seems way too high, especially in this round.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 11/2/2006 8:14:08 PM | message detail
Snake with 52% called it!
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2006 8:14:47 PM | message detail
'cause this Snake is winning the main bracket, duh.

I could see Snake beating Yoshi down... I get the feeling he wouldn't stand up well against elites.
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zizzy
charmander6000 | Posted 11/2/2006 8:17:26 PM | message detail
Uh, why am I seeing so many 56-57%+ predictions for Snake? I admit that's more or less what I'm predicting, but I freely admit that's out of fanboyism. I'd take Yoshi to flatten Ryu (and no, not with an overperformance !!) so unless you think Snake is just going to coast past MM without even a fight that just seems way too high, especially in this round.

I'd take Yoshi > Ryu.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 8:17:57 PM | message detail
On the contrary, Snake likely holds up better against stronger competition than anyone around his strength level does, as long as there's no SFF involved (though he has yet to face the "true elites", as it were). I can't picture Snake folding against Crono like Bowser did, even given the worst picture imaginable for him. If anything, he plays down to competition (yo Frog).
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2006 8:18:28 PM | message detail
Oh, elites like Mario and Bowser?
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2006 8:18:31 PM | message detail
by "he", I meant Yoshi.. maybe I should have said it.
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zizzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 8:19:59 PM | message detail
Well, Frog apparently doesn't stand up too well against elites (yo Samus) and we saw what he did to Snake. As far as I'm concerned Yoshi beat Dante, he's going to hold his own in any match that doesn't have SFF.

Though Bowser and Mega Man seem to imply that he's a chump with it, which is very odd considering how he does in those favorite polls.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2006 8:21:23 PM | message detail
and don't forget Link - yeah it's SFF, but that was one hell of a beatdown. LUE probably accounted for over half of Yoshi's votes.
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zizzy
RPGuy96 | Posted 11/2/2006 8:43:41 PM | message detail
On the topic of Battle Royale user pics:
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/BattleRoyale.jpg

I do hope Ceej allows user pictures again. They're always fun to make. <3
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2006 8:44:39 PM | message detail
am I the only one that thinks TP Link looks pretty stupid?

HAHA TAKE THAT MARIO
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zizzy
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2006 8:46:47 PM | message detail
oh, and, uh, Yuna with 52%. I bet Lara takes down some brackets.
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zizzy
HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2006 8:46:57 PM | message detail
I would think ZS-Samus should be the eye-shot...but otherwise, excellent all around.
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Diddy did it. Diddy did it.
DAMMIT! What didn't Diddy do?!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/2/2006 8:47:08 PM | message detail
am I the only one that thinks TP Link looks pretty stupid?

YEAH WELL YOUR FACE LOOKS STUPID !!

(He's mirrored in that picture, for the record!)

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2006 8:47:38 PM | message detail
my face does kinda suck.
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zizzy
Big Bob | Posted 11/2/2006 8:55:15 PM | message detail
Big Bob's completely biased and nonsensical analysis

Snake's match pic is going to screw him over. No, he's not going to lose, because he's never lost with the sprite, but it always does make him look as weak as humanly possible going into the next round. Coupled with Yoshi's strength, Snake is sure to look pathetic. It's going to be an all-day affair ending with a CJay topic, entirely due to Yoshi having the sprite advantage.

Bob's Prediction: Snake with 50.01%
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2006 8:57:52 PM | message detail
Time for some Yoshi ownage, men!!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Snake vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Yoshi (72/80)
Janus5000 | Posted 11/2/2006 8:58:08 PM | message detail
I like that pic. Sephiroth is stabbing Cloud, Cloud is about to stab Link, Link just socked Mario in the face, Samus is fleeing for her life and Crono is just sorta standing there waiting for everyone else to SFF each other into oblivion.

Yuna with 61%.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2006 8:58:34 PM | message detail
we need the Nintendo vote to come through big so we can really scare all the crazy Snake fans. the response would be incredible.
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zizzy
Draco1214 | Posted 11/2/2006 8:59:18 PM | message detail
Yuna with 57% of the brackets.

LOL Lara Croft.
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Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 8:59:58 PM | message detail
SNAKE IS DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED
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CB5 Points: 71/76, Current Oracle placement: 24/165
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2006 9:00:16 PM | message detail
Solid Snake 58.49%

31
Yoshi 41.51%

22
TOTAL VOTES 53

aww...
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Snake vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Yoshi (72/80)
Gaddswell | Posted 11/2/2006 9:00:26 PM | message detail
Solid Snake 46.15% 12
Yoshi 53.85% 14
TOTAL VOTES 26
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 9:00:29 PM | message detail
Solid Snake 60% 27
Yoshi 40% 18
TOTAL VOTES 45

GO SNAKE GO TEAR THAT DINO TO PIECES
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2006 9:00:50 PM | message detail
41.25% for Yuna, lol Lara indeed!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Snake vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Yoshi (72/80)
Janus5000 | Posted 11/2/2006 9:01:11 PM | message detail
Solid Snake 59.15% 97
Yoshi 40.85% 67
TOTAL VOTES 164

41.25? Silly casuals and their boobs.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/2/2006 9:01:20 PM | message detail
Oh holy crap at that prediction percentage.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
charmander6000 | Posted 11/2/2006 9:01:35 PM | message detail
Go Yoshi.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
FastFalcon05 | Posted 11/2/2006 9:01:51 PM | message detail

GO SNAKE GO TEAR THAT DINO TO PIECES



LAUGH WHILE YOU CAN! Mega Man looms near!
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2006 9:03:01 PM | message detail
this is dropping pretty quickly.

and I just looked at this account's bracket - outside of the blast division, I have a perfect bracket! darn you luigi
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zizzy
Gaddswell | Posted 11/2/2006 9:05:31 PM | message detail
At the freeze:

Solid Snake 57.95% 831
Yoshi 42.05% 603
TOTAL VOTES 1434
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Karma Hunter | Posted 11/2/2006 9:05:34 PM | message detail
At least he's starting off a helluva lot better than he did against Bowser. I call that an improvement!

*waits for next updates with bated breath*
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/2/2006 9:06:08 PM | message detail
GEE I WONDER WHY EVERYONE WENT WITH 56 - 57%! =p

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
Master Moltar | Posted 11/2/2006 9:06:09 PM | message detail
Snake with 58% at the freeze. Not bad, as he should gain overnight. Of course, Yoshi will chop it down during the day, but he's looking to end in the mid to high 50's, which is pretty good for a sprite picture.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Snake vs. Yoshi - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Yoshi (72/80)
Janus5000 | Posted 11/2/2006 9:06:09 PM | message detail
Solid Snake 57.95% 831
Yoshi 42.05% 603
TOTAL VOTES 1434

Fear the all-poweful Nintendo Power Hour!

...Wait, Snake has SSBB hype. So much for that!
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
UltimaterializerX | Posted 11/2/2006 9:06:15 PM | message detail
If this keeps up, I find it hard to believe that Mega Man will be able to take Snake down next round.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
charmander6000 | Posted 11/2/2006 9:06:23 PM | message detail
Yoshi starting off with 42%.

I wonder what the day vote will have in store.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
YoboD | Posted 11/2/2006 9:06:27 PM | message detail
So what's the best time for Snake and Yoshi?
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Duff beer for me, Duff beer for you, I'll have a Duff, you'll have one too.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 11/2/2006 9:06:32 PM | message detail
Whoa, even if it is 5 minutes in, Snake's doing better than I thought...
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CB5 Points: 75/80, Current Oracle placement: 25/165
Now playing: Phoenix Wright 2, Final Fanasy XII
trannyscience | Posted 11/2/2006 9:06:32 PM | message detail
at this rate, people will call the result "legit"!

in an hour, Snake should go on a tear. not bad, though it's just the board vote so far. I'm sure early voters know who Snake is.
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zizzy
Adept of Aiur | Posted 11/2/2006 9:06:44 PM | message detail
Wow, Snake is gonna crush Mega Man under his smallest toe.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 11/2/2006 9:07:01 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
75-----2--------100.0000000
74-----20-------90.0000000
73-----31-------87.0967742
72-----86-------91.8604651
71-----153------86.2745098
70-----242------84.2975207
69-----353------81.0198300
68-----458------83.4061135
67-----566------74.7349823
66-----793------70.1134931
65-----977------70.9314227
64-----1133-----65.8428950
63-----1443-----63.5481635
62-----1410-----58.8652482
61-----1495-----58.9966555
60-----1699-----54.7380812
59-----1702-----51.7626322
58-----1717-----46.5346535
57-----1728-----45.0810185
56-----1743-----43.0292599
55-----1635-----41.4067278
54-----1681-----37.5371802
53-----1683-----34.1651812
52-----1673-----35.2659892
51-----1611-----33.8299193
50-----1558-----33.6328626
49-----1477-----33.0399458
48-----1328-----28.0120482
47-----1305-----30.0383142
46-----1191-----26.3643997
45-----1206-----27.1973466
44-----1077-----25.6267409
43-----977------24.8720573
42-----933------25.4019293
41-----805------22.2360248
40-----722------24.2382271
39-----617------24.6353323
38-----547------22.4862888
37-----438------23.2876712
36-----406------19.2118227
35-----354------21.1864407
34-----272------16.5441176
33-----210------18.0952381
32-----167------13.7724551
31-----178------14.6067416
30-----129------13.9534884
29-----96-------12.5000000
28-----80-------16.2500000
27-----52-------11.5384615
26-----44-------9.0909091
25-----38-------2.6315789
24-----36-------13.8888889
23-----23-------8.6956522
22-----16-------6.2500000
21-----12-------0.0000000
20-----9--------22.2222222
19-----6--------33.3333333
18-----7--------0.0000000
17-----7--------0.0000000
16-----2--------50.0000000
15-----5--------0.0000000
14-----3--------0.0000000
13-----6--------0.0000000
12-----5--------20.0000000

Everybody with a score of 11 or less got the match wrong.
Overall prediction percentage: 41.25%

Yuna's prediction percentage took hit from the previous round. Lara fault? Anyways, the top tiers manage to get to the mid 80s and low 90s. The two -1s both manage to get this match correct.

Five people fell off the Top 50 today. lilaznhomer, Checkmate37, MegamanTrigger7, Gash424 and tree3005 did not have Yuna winning the match.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!