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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 413

YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2006 9:10:51 PM | message detail
Outperform Aeris? Let's not get ahead of ourselves, guys. Remember that Ganondorf scored 61.2% on Yuna last year. I'd take Zelda to outdo Ganon's performance about 10 trillion times before I take Yuna to outperform Aeris.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2006 9:11:06 PM | message detail
Yuna will then kill her with the rest of the day though.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 11/1/2006 9:11:14 PM | message detail
...where the hell has this Yuna been for the last three years?
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2006 9:12:11 PM | message detail
Oh, I don't mean to imply that I think Yuna will out-perform Aeris...but, if she did, I would still take Aeris unless Yuna REALLY out-performs Aeris.
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Master Moltar | Posted 11/1/2006 9:13:06 PM | message detail
Yeah, even with the night vote cut that Chun's going to make, Yuna should still end up in the mid tohigh 50's, which is pretty good.

And yeah, with Ganon's number on Yuna, Zelda's pretty much guaranteed to match or do a little better/worse. Such a shame too, as Yuna has looked very nice so far.
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Yuna vs. Chun-Li - Bracket: Yuna - Vote: Yuna (68/76)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/1/2006 9:13:20 PM | message detail
And I really doubt that Yuna outperforms Aeris on Zelda. If anything, I expect Zelda to get around Ganon's numbers against her last year.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
Lopen | Posted 11/1/2006 9:15:07 PM | message detail
If Yuna keeps these numbers up on Chun Li I'd think it at least possible she does. I mean really, who takes KOS-MOS over Chun Li here? Anybody?
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/1/2006 9:16:53 PM | message detail
"If anything, I expect Zelda to get around Ganon's numbers against her last year."

Why thank you for pointing out the obvious expectations. That is pretty much what the stats would tell you, as well.
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2006 9:16:57 PM | message detail
It's weird to think that Tidus got killed, Rikku's done about as expected if not failed expectations in a match or two, Auron had one great performance and one okay performance, and Yuna's been the show-off of the FFX cast this contest thus far. They still have matches against Zelda and Crono to see what's up, but...man, Yuna's the only one who has consistantly impressed.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 11/1/2006 9:17:24 PM | message detail
All Time Most Popular Polls

01. 158527 - (1) The Legend of Zelda vs (1) Final Fantasy (2006 Series Final)
02. 157773 - (1) Final Fantasy vs (1) Super Mario Bros. (2006 Series Semfinal)
03. 147637 - (1) Cloud Strife vs (1) Link (2003 Characters Semifinal)
04. 137513 - (1) Metal Gear vs (2) Kingdom Hearts (2006 Series Quarterfinal)
05. 136154 - (1) Final Fantasy vs (2) Resident Evil (2006 Series Quarterfinal)
06. 135833 - (1) Solid Snake vs (4) Squall Leonhart (2006 Characters Round 2)
07. 135562 - (1) Final Fantasy vs (4) Mega Man (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen)
08. 134604 - (1) The Legend of Zelda vs (2) Metroid (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen)
09. 134434 - (3) Auron vs (7) Sub-Zero (2006 Characters Round 2)
10. 133005 - (1) Mario vs (4) Crono (2003 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
11. 132410 - (1) The Legend of Zelda vs (1) Metal Gear (2006 Series Semifinal)
12. 130058 - (2) Luigi vs (7) Zero (2006 Characters Round 1)
13. 129977 - (1) The Legend of Zelda vs (5) Mega Man X (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen)
14. 129703 - (1) Mario vs (2) Cloud Strife (2002 Characters Quarterfinal)
15. 129569 - (6) Yoshi vs (2) Dante (2006 Characters Round 2)
16. 129463 - (3) Rikku vs (2) Kairi (2006 Characters Round 2)
17. 128290 - (7) Sub-Zero vs (2) Master Chief (2006 Characters Round 1)
18. 128286 - (2) Kingdom Hearts vs (3) Castlevania (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen)
19. 128006 - (5) Vincent Valentine vs (4) Ganondorf (2006 Characters Round 1)
20. 127218 - (5) WarCraft vs (4) Grand Theft Auto (2006 Series Round 1)
21. 126178 - (2) Super Smash Bros. vs (3) Sonic the Hedgehog (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen)
22. 126164 - (2) Tifa Lockhart vs (7) Ivy Valentine (2006 Characters Round 1)
23. 125897 - (1) Princess Zelda vs (2) Aerith Gainsborough
24. 125719 - (6) Yoshi vs (3) Riku (2006 Characters Round 1)
25. 125259 - (2) Metroid vs (3) Pokemon (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen)

2002 Characters - 1
2003 Characters - 2
2004 Games - 0
2004 Characters - 0
2005 Villains - 0
2005 Characters - 0
2006 Series - 12
2006 Characters - 10
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2006 9:19:54 PM | message detail
For what it's worth though, we're assuming this is the same Yuna that faced Ganon last year. I don't know WHY Yuna would change like the numbers say thus far, but so far all signs are saying this Yuna is different. Zelda looks improved too, but I'm not sure if it would be a sign that Ganon > Zelda if she doesn't match his performance against Yuna next round.
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MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/1/2006 9:20:20 PM | message detail
2006 Series - 12
2006 Characters - 10


Almost there!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
Lopen | Posted 11/1/2006 9:21:07 PM | message detail
You know, both of Sub-Zero's matches being in the top 25 votals of all time is kinda funny to me.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/1/2006 9:22:15 PM | message detail
Roll is a noob and Joanna is fodder, I'm not going to base anythign off of either of those two.
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Gaddswell | Posted 11/1/2006 9:24:40 PM | message detail
Funny that the only non 2k6 matches on that list are the Mario > Cloud, Mario vs Crono II and Cloud > Link matches.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 11/1/2006 9:26:56 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/1/2006 9:29:54 PM | message detail
Isn't Yuna supposed to beat Chun Li with ~58% if Ganon and Bowser were at the same ratio in SC2k5 that they were in the Spring? Even if you set Ganon and Bowser as equals, Yuna wins with ~56.5%. I don't see what's so crazy about this match result, especially considering the possibility that Yuna will continue to decrease.
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transience | Posted 11/1/2006 9:32:41 PM | message detail
yeah, this is not unexpected to me here. I was surprised at the low picks after how Ganon and Bowser have looked this year, not to mention Yuna looking like Mario against Joanna Dark.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2006 9:33:00 PM | message detail
You can say the same thing about Carmen and Terra/Kerrigan though Chichiri, and Zelda's still kicking ass and taking names beyond expectations. Yuna's looking to outdo what 2k5 stats say about Yuna/Chun-Li as well, so that should be enough to say that either she's at least boosted a bit or that Samus was at least a little more under-rated than we once thought last year.

2k5's adjusted stats say Yuna gets 52.26% against Chun-Li, by the way, not to mention crushing Roll and beating Joanna nearly as bad as Mario did with NO reason for SFF. I'm not saying she's a NN-breaker, not at all, but this surely ain't the same Yuna we've seen twice before.
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transience | Posted 11/1/2006 9:36:00 PM | message detail
2k5's stats aren't adjusted for Ganondorf/Samus or Bowser overperforming on Snake though. go ahead and use 2k6 Bowser and Ganon (assuming a constant Sonic and Crono) and it comes out to 58% for Yuna.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2006 9:38:28 PM | message detail
Which she very well could still exceed once the night-vote ends for Chun-Li -- it just depends how nice their respective trends are to one-another.
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transience | Posted 11/1/2006 9:42:11 PM | message detail
this is already dropping pretty quickly... once the "real" night vote kicks in, Chun Li will do even better. Chun could get this down to 55%-ish by morningtime and I wouldn't be surprised.
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xyzzy
creativename | Posted 11/1/2006 9:45:47 PM | message detail
I don't know if retroactively adjusting Yuna up for Ganon is a good idea. One should adjust Chun-Li down due to Bowser being overrated by a couple points, but that adjustment was callable beforehand. That gives Yuna with about 55%. But since Yuna looked good last round (obviously the Joanna result was either a fluke or Joanna dropping, but it was still a good showing by Yuna) and Chun-Li looking so-so, people's expectations for her in this match were above 55%.
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transience | Posted 11/1/2006 9:51:32 PM | message detail
do you think Samus / Ganon was a legit result? cause I sure don't. 2k6 is as good of a read as we've ever had on Ganon, not to mention that it does predict the current percentage pretty darn well.

as for what happened to Joanna, who knows. it's not worth thinking about though since she's fodder.
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xyzzy
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 11/1/2006 9:51:46 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2006 9:59:10 PM | message detail
Here's the updated list of every non-Noble 9 character to win three matches in a contest.

Scorpion (2002)
Bowser (2005)
Vincent (2005)
Tifa (2006)
Yuna (2006)

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I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2006 10:00:21 PM | message detail
Oh, and Zelda (2006).

Man, it was awesome when there was only ONE!
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I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2006 10:00:54 PM | message detail
SCORPIAN ES TEH LEET
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transience | Posted 11/1/2006 10:02:00 PM | message detail
and if you go to games, the only non-noble game was Starcraft. only non-Square/Nintendo game too.
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xyzzy
YoAriel33 | Posted 11/1/2006 10:03:00 PM | message detail
I also didn't count the Villains Contest, as it wasn't an official Character Battle.
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I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
Who Cares? | Posted 11/1/2006 10:03:08 PM | message detail
Bah, at least I can take solace that Chun will be winning a good deal of updates during the night & hacking away that %
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Big Bob | Posted 11/1/2006 10:10:16 PM | message detail
Yes! My prediction was spot-on!
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BeTheMan | Posted 11/1/2006 10:28:14 PM | message detail
If the trends from the first two rounds hold to form, Chun Li isn't going to bring this percentage down too much from where it is now. Yuna could make a run at 60%.
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Haste_2 | Posted 11/1/2006 11:24:21 PM | message detail
I think BeTheMan is right.

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transience | Posted 11/1/2006 11:31:22 PM | message detail
guess those three 54% updates were just an anomaly. not bad, Yuna.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2006 11:34:45 PM | message detail
Yeah...unless Chun-Li somehow gets another surge, Yuna's gonna kick her ass to a 60-40 win or maybe better.
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Xuxon | Posted 11/2/2006 1:22:46 AM | message detail
I was worried for my >60 oracle for a while there, but Yuna seems to be increasing her percentage already. So Yuna definitively won the board vote, Chun-Li wins the power hour, then probably drops til the end, just like last round, only not as much (I can't see this getting up to 63%).
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Haste_2 | Posted 11/2/2006 1:47:30 AM | message detail
Nice call, Xuxon. Man, do I hate these fodder anomaly matches...it makes it hard to predict how they do later. First Zelda/Terra, and then Yuna/Joanna...it turns out Yuna and Zelda increase a decent amount, but not nearly enough to actually make their fodder blowouts legit.

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Haste_2 | Posted 11/2/2006 1:51:13 AM | message detail
Oh, and when I think about it...how is your name pronounced, Xuxon? Zue-zon? Zux-on? Ex-you-zon? Ksue-kson @_@?

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ps2rulezzz | Posted 11/2/2006 2:11:19 AM | message detail
I always pronounced it like Ksuckson (in my head).
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AmazingKirby | Posted 11/2/2006 2:39:24 AM | message detail
Wow, Chun-Li barely did anything with the night vote. She couldn't win a single update. Go Yuna!
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Xuxon | Posted 11/2/2006 3:15:38 AM | message detail
Sometimes I wonder how the hell I came up with this name. I remember when creating my account, I tried several usernames that were taken and basically came to something that nobody could possibly have. I didn't even really have a pronunciation in mind when creating it, but I've gotten used to Zoo-ksahn.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2006 4:35:32 AM | message detail
do you think Samus / Ganon was a legit result? cause I sure don't. 2k6 is as good of a read as we've ever had on Ganon, not to mention that it does predict the current percentage pretty darn well.

as for what happened to Joanna, who knows. it's not worth thinking about though since she's fodder.


Or Samus is just underadjusted to all hell! Push for 60 Yuna, for all that is holy, push for 60 !!

Zelda is so screwed.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids
Gooper Blooper | Posted 11/2/2006 4:44:00 AM | message detail
Ouch. I was hoping at least a 55-45 affair. Poor Chunny.
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Who Cares? | Posted 11/2/2006 4:47:53 AM | message detail
Dangit, I forgot how ridiculously stable FFX matches are! Poor Chun, Yuna had better kick arse next round!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Locked in battle with Yuna
*Go play Tales of the Abyss NOW!!*
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 11/2/2006 4:48:07 AM | message detail
I was hoping for Yuna to be well into the sixties here. :(
Though if she pulls a Lara Croft, she could swing another 5% >_<
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HaRRicH | Posted 11/2/2006 4:49:17 AM | message detail
Yeah...Yuna's gonna break 60-40 with ease and show off today. Ouch.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2006 4:50:03 AM | message detail
Dangit, I forgot how ridiculously stable FFX matches are! Poor Chun, Yuna had better kick arse next round!

It went from 60 to 56 to 59, not really stable.

SAMUS IS TOTALLY ROCKING FACES GRAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHA

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Who Cares? | Posted 11/2/2006 4:54:27 AM | message detail
Usually FFX match don't have wild swings. And considering how Chun didn't blow up at night, that's pretty stable against an SF character.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Locked in battle with Yuna
*Go play Tales of the Abyss NOW!!*
PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/2/2006 4:56:41 AM | message detail
She cut it like 3%, and then she's falling apart now, and she should fall apart again with the afterschool. If this doesn't end above 60% it's disappointing.

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