GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 413
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:27:40 PM | message detail |
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You mean the completely reasonable "Zelda outperforms Ganon on Samus" bandwagon? No, the 45%+ one. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| Draco1214 | Posted 11/1/2006 1:28:42 PM | message detail |
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I wouldn't be surprised at all if Zelda outperforms Ganon. It's a very likely possibility. Zelda breaking 45% however... --- Currently Playing: Final Fantasy XII, Tales of the Abyss, King of Fighters 2002/2003 |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:29:56 PM | message detail |
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But the downplaying of three extremely impressive performances is
getting a wee bit ridiculous. It starts out with the whole "It's only
fodder she's overperforming on!" and now that she's beating down
someone from FFVII who isn't fodder it's "Aeris is just much weaker
than before!" I don't know how many times that Zelda has to outperform
the stats and expectations before you get everyone acknowledging that
she did, in fact, boost and will perform quite well on Samus. Give me a reliable opponent first. She had a match against someone who has no value, a character that makes her > Mario, which you should make you throw it out the window on the spot, and a character who has been underperforming every round so far. It's really not ridiculous at all. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:30:45 PM | message detail |
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*which should --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| RydiaOfTheMist | Posted 11/1/2006 1:31:03 PM | message detail |
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Well the consensus usually can agree that the namesake of the most
popular series will make her stronger then Ganondorf. Overall I think
Samus' underperformance will be also weighing in on people wanting to
see her fall simply because of how easy she has had it all tournament.
I mean if you don't like Nintendo who are you going to vote for? --- Rydia: It's not yours! Edge: That's okay it would be happy to be used by us! |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2006 1:33:58 PM | message detail |
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1) Zelda is a much more familiar name outside of the Nintendo fanbase
than Samus of Ganon (though this will only be a small factor). 2) Due to various circumstances, it's possible that Zelda has always been stronger than Ganon except for maybe 2k3 (I'm not gonna do the math to see how Tidus compares)...and she was capped in 2k4 so that's not fair to judge by either. 3) If Samus really did get so much of her popularity from the SSB series, then Zelda is as capable as any other character to steal some of those votes away. Samus has only faced three other SSB characters before (Mario, Ganon, and Link), and I don't see any two of them combined outdoing Zelda as far as SSB-favoritism goes. Note on #3 that I mean just the people who are voting primarily based on SSB/M (primarily, not only), not Nintendo fans in general -- no way can Zelda do to Samus what Mario did. --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:35:12 PM | message detail |
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Samus... that's kinda the idea of her being able to get rSFF'd/not
SFFing Nintendo. She gets Nintendo support + oustide support which
makes her capable of being so strong. Put her against Mario and a ton
of her Ninty support is drained, and she' s left with the other stuff.
Samus is definitely one of the most friendly characters to non-Nintendo
fans. As for saying Zelda > Ganon, Zelda is, barely above Ganon last year. If Samus is underrated at all (and she is!) they're at best equal. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/1/2006 1:35:40 PM | message detail |
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Now why would Zelda get rSFF on Samus when Ganondorf couldn't (and it's arguable whether or not Ganondorf got SFF'd himself)? Samus has one bad match against Nintendo's mascot, and now everyone thinks anything Nintendo can rSFF her. I don't see why Zelda wouldn't be more capable of SFF than Ganondorf, if only because of the fact that she carries the name of the series. There is nothing that is taken away from Samus as a result of going 55/45 with an absolute beastly Zelda this year. Hell, they had comparable blowouts and bracket support in round 2. I think it's perfectly within reason to expect Samus to possibly get rSFFed by a couple of points to Zelda of all characters. It doesn't suddenly mean I expect Nidoran F to be sporting some rSFF or Fox McCloud to overperform on her. It's Zelda. --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/1/2006 1:38:29 PM | message detail |
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Give me a reliable opponent first. She had a match against someone
who has no value, a character that makes her > Mario, which you
should make you throw it out the window on the spot, and a character
who has been underperforming every round so far. It's really not
ridiculous at all. Who in the world qualifies as a reliable opponent to you? We can take Aeris's weakest value in 2002 or her strongest one in 2003 and Zelda 2k5 is still beating those expectations without much of a problem. If she outperforms Ganon on Yuna, who looks stronger this year to say the least, is she going to be unreliable too? Zelda's two most impressive performances have come against two Square characters with actual contest history. Her first round performance put her as the only character to get 100,000 individual votes. It's like ignoring all signs of a boost in favor of...something. I'm not even sure why you wouldn't expect her to boost and perform really well on Samus this year. It's almost mind boggling. --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:41:12 PM | message detail |
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Because 2002/3 values are incredibly reliable and constant! Except for
the part where every FF7 character has dropped in strength since 2K3. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2006 1:41:48 PM | message detail |
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I said this in the last topic: If we were to assume Aeris 2k3 = Aeris 2k5 and last year's stats remain correct... .....if Zelda finishes with 53%, she is damn near even with Kirby. .....if Zelda finishes with 55%, she is almost equal to Bowser. .....if Zelda finishes with 57%, she is just under Sonic. .....if Zelda finishes with 59%, she'll barely be above Crono. It's worth noting that Aeris-2k3/Zelda-2k5 was expected to have Zelda get 51.33%, by the way. However, it's also worth pointing out that it looks as if Kirby and Bowser are a bit over-rated from last year. Then, if you feel Zelda can beat Ganon, being around Vincent's strength is inevitable. I don't foresee Zelda > Crono though, heh...though didn't Terra and Kerrigan say Zelda > Mario? =P Throw in the only 100,000-performance so far and that Zelda has more intangibles going in her favor against Samus this year than Ganon did last year, and 45% isn't out of the question. I would NOT take her to go any higher than that, but 45% itself is plausible given the numbers and projections we've seen this year... ...but, as you've mentioned, Aeris-2k6 probably ain't the same Aeris we've always known. Still though, with KH2 (current GotY) and FF:AC (I think 60% of the site's seen it) out now and any influx that DoC (still in the FF7 vein) or FF12 (the biggest FF in five years) may have brought in her favor, not to mention that FF7 is still the foundation and favorite of this site (though ,rpboably not as mcuh as it once was), you have to wonder how much she could have dropped. --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:42:16 PM | message detail |
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If she outperforms Ganon on Yuna, who looks stronger this year to say the least, is she going to be unreliable too? No, if she outperforms Ganon on Yuna I'll say she's probably a little stronger (depending on how much obviously), but I'm not arguing that that can't be. I think Ganon is barely stronger indirectly. I'm saying the 45% train has no ground. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2006 1:42:28 PM | message detail |
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Well, some people may be reluctant to put KOS-MOS too high in the
stats. I mean, if you give KOS-MOS like, a 1% bonus from last year,
then Zelda would still only be performing at about her expectations. Zelda's probably better than that but I can't exactly blame someone for having reservations. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/1/2006 1:43:56 PM | message detail |
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Because 2002/3 values are incredibly reliable and constant! Except
for the part where every FF7 character has dropped in strength since
2K3. I'd like you to actually go get the numbers that show every FFVII character has dropped in strength from 2003. Oh, and guess what? The possibility of her dropping since 2003 is why we use the 2002 value -- and Zelda is still overperforming! Isn't it crazy how that works? --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/1/2006 1:44:00 PM | message detail |
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Because 2002/3 values are incredibly reliable and constant! Except
for the part where every FF7 character has dropped in strength since
2K3. Sephiroth dropping half a percent = every FFVII character? --- 99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:44:25 PM | message detail |
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Especially when you consider I had Zelda winning today with 55.75%, and
there's no reason for me to alter from my post match beliefs when it's
going somewhat accordingly. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:45:00 PM | message detail |
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Sephiroth dropping half a percent = every FFVII character? Seph, Cloud, Aeris. The only ones that were in in 2K3, and are in now. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:45:46 PM | message detail |
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I'd like you to actually go get the numbers that show every FFVII character has dropped in strength from 2003. Oh, and guess what? The possibility of her dropping since 2003 is why we use the 2002 value -- and Zelda is still overperforming! Isn't it crazy how that works? 2002? You serious? Why in the hell does anyone ever bring up 2K2 stats anymore? We have like triple the votals. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/1/2006 1:46:08 PM | message detail |
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Seph, Cloud, Aeris. The only ones that were in in 2K3, and are in now. ...Yeah, uh, Sephiroth and Cloud are practically equal to their values in 2003. --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2006 1:46:26 PM | message detail |
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Also, Cloud and Sephiroth came closer to Link-2k5 last year than
Sephiroth came or Cloud could have came to Link-2k2, and 2k5 > 2k2
for Link. 2k3 for Cloud and Sephiroth is a different story, but then
again, arguably the same could be said for Link. --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:47:27 PM | message detail |
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Well I've always been under the impression that Link has been overadjusted, and I know I'm not the only one. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/1/2006 1:48:14 PM | message detail |
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Well I've always been under the impression that Link has been overadjusted, and I know I'm not the only one. ...And this is the final nail in the coffin! I'm done here !! --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 11/1/2006 1:49:34 PM | message detail |
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Well I've always been under the impression that Link has been overadjusted, and I know I'm not the only one. If Link's been overadjusted, Zelda characters and such also look less impressive. I don't see the difference it makes. --- 99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:50:16 PM | message detail |
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Not really... I've seen it been thrown around multiple times in the
stats topic that Link is overadjusted in our stats. And it helps
explain the severity of multiple boosts. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| HaRRicH | Posted 11/1/2006 1:50:19 PM | message detail |
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I don't know enough about the stats to say whether or not he's real
over-adjusted, but I feel safe enough saying that Link-2k4/2k5 is still
stronger than Link-2k3, whether he's very over-adjusted or not. --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/1/2006 1:51:17 PM | message detail |
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From RydiaOfTheMist Well the consensus usually can agree that the namesake of the most popular series will make her stronger then Ganondorf. Overall I think Samus' underperformance will be also weighing in on people wanting to see her fall simply because of how easy she has had it all tournament. I mean if you don't like Nintendo who are you going to vote for? Nobody doesn't like Nintendo. The people that say they do are just saying that to either troll, or boost their "indie cred". At any rate, its looking like I have a very good shot at getting today's crew point =) TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:51:25 PM | message detail |
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It doesn't make them appear to have become weaker. The line of thinking was that FF7 have dropped if only slightly since 2K3. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/1/2006 1:51:35 PM | message detail |
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Not really... I've seen it been thrown around multiple times in the
stats topic that Link is overadjusted in our stats. And it helps
explain the severity of multiple boosts. You do realize that this affects everyone in the stats, right? It makes no difference between FFVII characters and someone like Frog. If Link is overadjusted, everyone is overadjusted and weaker as a result. --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/1/2006 1:53:09 PM | message detail |
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And while I've been saying Zelda will outperform Ganon all contest, 45% is a pretty ridiculous number. That would put her at around Mega Man/Sonic's level, which is completely unbelievable given her past matches against the Noble Nine. TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:53:20 PM | message detail |
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That's not the point... the only point was to add more credence to the fact that Aeris has dropped off since then. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 11/1/2006 1:54:26 PM | message detail |
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And yeah, since Link is the basis of the stats, it doesn't matter what
his number is, because everybody will always have the same ratio to him. TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/1/2006 1:55:56 PM | message detail |
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That's not the point... the only point was to add more credence to the fact that Aeris has dropped off since then. And HOLY CRAP IS THAT WHY I BROUGHT UP 2002? Why, I think it is, to get an idea of what would have happened if Aeris dropped! Fancy that! It puts her right around Ryu in the stats and under Auron in 2k5. And -- here's the real highlight -- Zelda is projected to get 54.58% on that sort of Aeris. Hot damn! --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 11/1/2006 1:56:00 PM | message detail |
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OH HEY GUYS LETS NOT READ EC'S POSTS BUT REPOND ANYWAY --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/1/2006 2:02:49 PM | message detail |
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I find it hilarious how HM argued that
2003 Ganon means nothing while arguing that 2002/3 Aeris does. come on
now, Aeris could be pretty much anywhere at this point. Zelda looks stronger this year, but don't go nuts. wait until she faces Yuna, an opponent Ganon has already faced and that looks to be at about 27-28% in the stats. --- zizzy |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 11/1/2006 2:03:29 PM | message detail |
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Zelda's Percentage by the Hour: 17:00 | 60.17% 16:00 | 60.02% 15:00 | 57.43% 14:00 | 54.46% 13:00 | 56.07% 12:00 | 57.11% 11:00 | 56.94% 10:00 | 55.90% 09:00 | 57.97% 08:00 | 55.16% 07:00 | 54.71% 06:00 | 48.80% 05:00 | 49.10% 04:00 | 50.89% 03:00 | 55.11% 02:00 | 56.33% 01:00 | 59.24% That's quite an after school vote! It favoured her more than even the Nintendo Power Hour. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 11/1/2006 2:04:21 PM | message detail |
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I haven't been reading through because there seems to be an argument
going on, but why would Aeris drop in the first place? She was in
Kingdom Hearts, Chain of Memories, and Kingdom Hearts II. From what I
heard, slight SPOILERS? she had a bit role in Advent Children, too. No one's arguing for a really noteworthy fall, right? Sure she could have dropped a little bit each year just by variation, but, I would think KH would stop that, or at least stem it from being too extreme. --- Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/1/2006 2:04:57 PM | message detail |
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I find it hilarious how HM argued that 2003 Ganon means nothing
while arguing that 2002/3 Aeris does. come on now, Aeris could be
pretty much anywhere at this point. Uh, yeah, wasn't Aeris 2k3 the exact reason that people expected this match to be close? Everyone was using Aeris 2k3. Don't try to pin this on me at all. --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/1/2006 2:06:25 PM | message detail |
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I'd use 2005 Tifa before I used 2003 Aeris, honestly. I'm not "pinning"
anything on you here, I'm just laughing at how you're pulling a 180
here. --- zizzy |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/1/2006 2:12:00 PM | message detail |
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...There is nothing wrong with using Aeris 2k3 or Aeris 2k2 to measure
her strength. Now, if you want to think that Leon Kennedy, Tidus, and
everyone else beats Aeris now without a problem, you're free to go and
do that. But I actually don't
think that Aeris has completely dropped off like that. If people want
to argue she has gotten weaker since 2003, I don't see the problem with
using her 2002 value -- her strength before any KH games and working purely off of FFVII. --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 11/1/2006 2:12:37 PM | message detail |
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Also, keep in mind that we have very few
instances where an established character declines over the years (Jill
the is only example I can think of right now). I really don't think
that's the case with Aerith, who's from the most popular game on the
site and has been in two games and a movie since her last contest
appearance. I'm not going to bother arguing Zelda = Crono, like her
last two (or three) matches indicate, because that's silly. It's just
as silly, though, to say she doesn't look noticeably stronger this year. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/1/2006 2:17:12 PM | message detail |
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she's stronger this year, no doubt. 10th strongest wouldn't surprise
me. if she was in the male half, I could see her giving someone (Mega
Man, assuming no SFF?) a scare. real quick - Ryu or Aeris, who wins? the fact is though that Aeris has had three disappointing matches this year. if she's the same as she was in 2003, some characters of average strength all got a lot stronger. I'm fine with arguing for Zelda's strength, but this isn't the Aeris of 2003. --- zizzy |
| KingBartz | Posted 11/1/2006 2:17:45 PM | message detail |
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Ryu --- That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich. SC2k6: 66/72 Today's pick: Zelda |
| Dilated Chemist | Posted 11/1/2006 2:21:13 PM | message detail |
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Aeris would beat Ryu. --- Remember, remember. The 7th of October - the day Ganondorf was beat. By the Valentine, who N fans despise - another win, another great feat. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 11/1/2006 2:21:48 PM | message detail |
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Ryu was known as Mr. Consistency until last year, for good reason. And
he appears to be back in form this year as well - if he outdoes Sora on
Mega Man, that'll be quite a victory for the fighter. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 11/1/2006 2:23:39 PM | message detail |
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the fact is though that Aeris has had three disappointing matches
this year. if she's the same as she was in 2003, some characters of
average strength all got a lot stronger. I'm fine with arguing for
Zelda's strength, but this isn't the Aeris of 2003. And I've been completely willing to say that this isn't Aeris 2k3. I even brought up using Aeris 2k2 a while back because of how well it predicted Aeris/KOS-MOS (not KOS-MOS 2k5...because that one is just weird). Aeris 2k2 also predicts this to be a fairly reasonable boost (2%+) from last year. That's all I have been saying. Zelda is quite a bit stronger than last year (three matches running helps that!) and that Aeris, while likely to have fallen a bit, isn't even weaker than when she came into these contests in 2002. --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| trannyscience | Posted 11/1/2006 2:29:39 PM | message detail |
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I'd rather use a constant KOS-MOS. here are your options: transience | Posted 11/1/2006 1:09:34 AM | message detail Zelda will do all right vs. Samus, but she's not going to win. let's see here... assuming a constant KOS-MOS and Zelda finishing with 58%: KOS-MOS 2k5: Aeris - 27.77% Zelda - 33.06% KOS-MOS 2k4: Aeris - 31.60 Zelda - 37.62 I'd guess she's somewhere in the middle there - Aeris just hasn't looked good this year. Zelda is also probably stronger, but she's not suddenly going to boost to 40% for no apparent reason, nor is she going to rSFF Samus when Ganondorf couldn't. she'll do okay, but let's be realistic. --- zizzy |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/1/2006 2:36:01 PM | message detail |
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I'd rather use a constant KOS-MOS. here are your options: transience | Posted 11/1/2006 1:09:34 AM | message detail Zelda will do all right vs. Samus, but she's not going to win. let's see here... assuming a constant KOS-MOS and Zelda finishing with 58%: Well, you need to lower your projections because she's not getting that high. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 6: Han Solo (5-0) |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 11/1/2006 2:37:29 PM | message detail |
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Indeed. Even if she kept up the pace she had from4-5 until 8 PM, she'd
only reach about 57.2%. And around that time she'd definitely slow down
and maybe even start dropping. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 11/1/2006 2:45:42 PM | message detail |
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But either way, I've always found this "Zelda rSFFs Samus" stuff to be
a bit...out there. She really has no reason to do it when Ganondorf
couldn't. Just being named Zelda ain't gonna cut it. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 6: Han Solo (5-0) |
| AmazingKirby | Posted 11/1/2006 2:48:41 PM | message detail |
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Probably because Zelda is a better character than Ganon and Samus combined! --- caps |
