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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 412

trannyscience | Posted 10/31/2006 3:59:47 PM | message detail
I love how we're never going to know about the Devil Division. Knuckles and Magus get snubbed, Squall get Snake'd and Vincent gets a new game. the only thing we have is.... Terra, and, well, yeah.
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zizzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/31/2006 4:01:25 PM | message detail
Well, the thing is, a constant Sonic gives Vincent 1% at best over his 2005 value.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/31/2006 4:02:54 PM | message detail
yeah, but that could be a 2% boost for all we know. I see no reason to really question the DD at this point, but I do question Yoshi being at 35% or whereever it suggests.
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zizzy
creativename | Posted 10/31/2006 4:03:51 PM | message detail
I'm real impressed by Tifa here. She's doing well. This gives me some more hope for Aeris tomorrow. I think we could have a match on our hands.

Peach had roughly -4 points from the first 10-30 minutes against Jill, and she'll probably have about -3 points here. I'm surprised at the similarity.

Peach's day vote looks like it's below average, which is also surprising to me. I didn't expect her to be so sucky at the day vote.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/31/2006 4:05:26 PM | message detail
I certainly didn't expect her to have a great day vote. And this is about what I expected from Tifa, so this doesn't change my mind about Zelda/Aeris at all.
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creativename | Posted 10/31/2006 4:05:49 PM | message detail
I could be wrong, but I don't this this particular Snake sprite will have that big an impact on the match. The sprite itself is horrid, but you can clearly see Snake. In fact, the sprite is so horrid that your eyes kinda glaze over it. I think Snake face background is very clear.

If this was a generic background it could spell trouble, but I think Snake will do about what he should here.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/31/2006 4:07:39 PM | message detail
Yeah, the clear Snake mug should help him out, but still...That sprite is just plain bad. If there was one argument for getting rid of the sprite round, it's Solid Snake.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/31/2006 4:13:11 PM | message detail
Yoshi's victory is all but assured now.


Then again, something as trite as the picture (because people who go to gamefaqs can't read, that's why they, ya know, read faqs) wasn't going to change that.

/consistentantipicturefactorpost
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zwong1 | Posted 10/31/2006 4:15:03 PM | message detail
LOL at FastFalcon05.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/31/2006 4:22:13 PM | message detail
Well, most of us know that I'm not being serious, though we'll see what the spread for snake/yoshi looks like before the night is done.

If Yoshi keeps Snake under 60, I'll be content. 57 and lower would be ideal.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/31/2006 4:26:42 PM | message detail
I'll be surprised if Yoshi doesn't outperform Squall at this point.
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Tifa vs. Peach - Bracket: Tifa - Vote: Tifa (60/68)
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/31/2006 4:29:46 PM | message detail
One more year, eh Ceej?

*grumbles*
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/31/2006 4:41:42 PM | message detail
What does in-game Acid Snake look like anyway?
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BDawg | Posted 10/31/2006 4:49:12 PM | message detail
I prefer to wait and be surprised by the pic on the day of the match, but it is good to see that apparently Solid @%#! is alive and well.
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Should I start running now?
trannyscience | Posted 10/31/2006 4:49:47 PM | message detail
was Tifa/Boss on a weekend?
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zizzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/31/2006 4:50:56 PM | message detail
Rikku/Kairi was a Sunday, so...No.
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/31/2006 4:52:42 PM | message detail
Wow... a PURPLE Snake sprite?

XD

2k4 and 2k5 Solid **** were better looking than this.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/31/2006 4:53:11 PM | message detail
let's play.... MALE BRACKET FACT OR FICTION

- Yoshi does better than Squall (42.41%) on Solid Snake
- More than 50% of brackets have Snake winning his division
- Sora does better than Ryu (41.96%) on Mega Man
- Sonic breaks 55% on Luigi
- Less than 35% have Sonic winning his division
- Auron does better on Crono than Sub-Zero did on Auron (AKA Auron gets more than 40.37% on Crono)
- More than 45% of brackets have Crono winning his division


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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Tifa with 67.04%
trannyscience | Posted 10/31/2006 4:55:00 PM | message detail
- Yoshi does better than Squall (42.41%) on Solid Snake

yep

- More than 50% of brackets have Snake winning his division

yeah, and Dante is the only reason to doubt this

- Sora does better than Ryu (41.96%) on Mega Man

I'm actually leaning toward no, but that's one of those BOLD PREDICTIONS

- Sonic breaks 55% on Luigi

yep

- Less than 35% have Sonic winning his division

more than 35%... not more than 40.

- Auron does better on Crono than Sub-Zero did on Auron

the real question here should be if Auron can outdo Vincent. Auron does better than Sub did for sure.

- More than 45% of brackets have Crono winning his division

helllll no. why hello there master chief
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zizzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/31/2006 4:56:07 PM | message detail
And that's sad considering Crono beat the Chief last year.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/31/2006 4:57:13 PM | message detail
yeah, and he didn't have to compete with Nintendo or Square either. this year he's got all that despite his division being so easy to predict. (Sub-Zero notwithstanding)

if you remember, MC and Crono had almost the exact same prediction percentage for winning the division last year.
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zizzy
Draco1214 | Posted 10/31/2006 4:58:37 PM | message detail
*looks at pic*

Ok, so Yuna and Tifa get the 3D treatment but not Snake? He doesn't have to use sprites for Snake.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/31/2006 4:59:20 PM | message detail
well, I guess Kefka is a casual bracketmaker pick too.. but I don't know if people would pick him over Auron, and I know Bowser's thought of higher than DK.
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zizzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/31/2006 5:05:55 PM | message detail
Holy crappy Snake pic. I just saw that thing. Hideous.
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Janus5000 | Posted 10/31/2006 5:07:55 PM | message detail
Hah, a higher % had Crono advancing past Captain Falcon, Bowser and Leon Kennedy than they did past Zidane, Vercetti, and BARRIER.

Though Vercetti and Kefka are big casual picks, so I suppose isn't that surprising. Funny though.

Crono might have 45%... though I somehow doubt it with Auron and MC on the other side. Not to mention The Plan.
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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/31/2006 5:10:56 PM | message detail
- Yoshi does better than Squall (42.41%) on Solid Snake
Major Fact
- More than 50% of brackets have Snake winning his division
Fact
- Sora does better than Ryu (41.96%) on Mega Man
Fact
- Sonic breaks 55% on Luigi
Fiction
- Less than 35% have Sonic winning his division
Fiction
- Auron does better on Crono than Sub-Zero did on Auron (AKA Auron gets more than 40.37% on Crono)
Fact
- More than 45% of brackets have Crono winning his division
Fiction, lol master chief
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trannyscience | Posted 10/31/2006 5:28:40 PM | message detail
looks like Tifa's already bottomed out and will start gaining percentage. all the kids are out trick or treating!

hmm, I wonder if that affects vote totals. probably.
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zizzy
Iamyoursnake | Posted 10/31/2006 5:30:17 PM | message detail
Snake will still break 80% on Yoshi regardless of the picture.
Xuxon | Posted 10/31/2006 5:36:49 PM | message detail
- Yoshi does better than Squall (42.41%) on Solid Snake
Fiction. Even with the pic, Snake is on steroids, and Yoshi barely beat an overrated Dante. Plus with the face in the background he's at least recognizable.
- More than 50% of brackets have Snake winning his division
Fact easily
- Sora does better than Ryu (41.96%) on Mega Man
eh... Fact. I'm unsure about this one.
- Sonic breaks 55% on Luigi
Fact
- Less than 35% have Sonic winning his division
Fiction
- Auron does better on Crono than Sub-Zero did on Auron (AKA Auron gets more than 40.37% on Crono)
Fact
- More than 45% of brackets have Crono winning his division
Fact I think actually. Crono getting as much as he did against Bowser makes me think he can stay above 45. Plus he's actually the seeded favorite this time.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/31/2006 5:45:46 PM | message detail
How are people actually denying that FFXII could have a positive affect on Aeris tomorrow, but go on to believe that such things as trailors and a few lines in KH can create boosts? New people are going to be brought in by the recent release of it, it was highly anticipated, and they have a greater chance of being hardcore FF fans as well. I'm still not expecting Aeris to win, or really come all that close, but I'll be damned if that doesn't help her out, and this topic talks about trailor boosts.

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trannyscience | Posted 10/31/2006 5:47:28 PM | message detail
'cause most of this topic has Zelda winning!
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zizzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/31/2006 5:47:43 PM | message detail
...What's a "trai-lor?"
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Tediz247 | Posted 10/31/2006 5:47:46 PM | message detail
CJayC should just use the sprite Snake got against Ryu every year since he refuses to use a polygon. That sprite, although bad, was much better than anything he's gotten since.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/31/2006 5:53:41 PM | message detail
...What's a "trai-lor?"

>_>

Trailer is seriously the one word I NEVER spell correctly, no matter what. I motion for it to be banned from the english language.

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/31/2006 5:54:04 PM | message detail
Oh... and Snake's sprite made me laugh so hard I popped a boner.

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trannyscience | Posted 10/31/2006 5:55:59 PM | message detail
I get the feeling there's no correlation there.
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zizzy
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/31/2006 5:59:32 PM | message detail
Yeah, probably not.

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GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/31/2006 6:08:20 PM | message detail
I read that as "pooped a boner"
why doesn't really make sense .... though it is EC

O SNAP
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Tifa with 67.04%
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/31/2006 6:08:57 PM | message detail
Oh sorry...

*pooped a boner

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Haste_2 | Posted 10/31/2006 6:18:19 PM | message detail
Zelda's easily the favorite, but there's plenty of things that could possibly favor Aeris...

-Aeris...falling? More like increasing from FF7:AC and KH2. Tifa and Vincent have appeared stronger than last year. Aeris may not have quite the roles like they do, but influx is a big thing, too. Has Aeris gotten less liked over time? No.
-FFXII might bring extra FF fans to the site, as people mentioned. Heck, it could even mean more people in an FF sort of mood, helping any FF character.
-Aeris has picture advantage over Zelda. It's probably not worth anything, but it doesn't hurt.
-Zelda over-performed on Terra...no way Zelda's actually that strong. Ganondorf increased only slightly, if at all, since last year, so why would Zelda become so much stronger? There's been barely anything going for Zelda, unless you count hype for the new game, but that's been going on for two years now. We're still a month away from the Wii and Zelda:TP.
-Look at the Aeris/KOS-MOS picture. That's the most immodest/hottest picture we've ever seen in a match on GameFAQs... I bet TJF helped KOS-MOS a lot, since she's pretty obscure. Oh, and XS3...almost forgot about that...it may have helped KOS-MOS more than given credit for, but I think it's more about the picture.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/31/2006 6:30:50 PM | message detail

-Aeris...falling? More like increasing from FF7:AC and KH2. Tifa and Vincent have appeared stronger than last year. Aeris may not have quite the roles like they do, but influx is a big thing, too. Has Aeris gotten less liked over time? No.


lol aeris/kos-mos

-FFXII might bring extra FF fans to the site, as people mentioned. Heck, it could even mean more people in an FF sort of mood, helping any FF character.

Small factor pretty much overrun by TP hype

-Aeris has picture advantage over Zelda. It's probably not worth anything, but it doesn't hurt.

Nah

-Zelda over-performed on Terra...no way Zelda's actually that strong. Ganondorf increased only slightly, if at all, since last year, so why would Zelda become so much stronger? There's been barely anything going for Zelda, unless you count hype for the new game, but that's been going on for two years now. We're still a month away from the Wii and Zelda:TP.

Zelda over-performed on Terra, but to such a massive amount that at least some of it has to be legit.

-Look at the Aeris/KOS-MOS picture. That's the most immodest/hottest picture we've ever seen in a match on GameFAQs... I bet TJF helped KOS-MOS a lot, since she's pretty obscure. Oh, and XS3...almost forgot about that...it may have helped KOS-MOS more than given credit for, but I think it's more about the picture.

lol cartoon robots having any sort of sexual appeal

TuRtLe
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creativename | Posted 10/31/2006 6:37:09 PM | message detail
-Look at the Aeris/KOS-MOS picture. That's the most immodest/hottest picture we've ever seen in a match on GameFAQs... I bet TJF helped KOS-MOS a lot, since she's pretty obscure. Oh, and XS3...almost forgot about that...it may have helped KOS-MOS more than given credit for, but I think it's more about the picture.

Agree about the picture, however I would think XS3 had a bigger effect. XS2 seemed to really hurt KOS-MOS due to its unpopularity. 3 seems to have brought her back to something like what she was before. But yeah, I'm pretty sure the picture helped her out noticeably. As you say, it was the most immodest picture we've had.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/31/2006 6:38:47 PM | message detail
Instead of quoting his post and "responding" to it section by section, why don't you just yell out "I'M A FLAMING DOUCHE" and save the space?

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/31/2006 6:39:32 PM | message detail
Luigi scored 5% better on KOS-MOS then Aeris did. XS3 helped her, but I doubt it was enough to make Aeris significantly stronger than 2k5 Luigi, who lost to Tifa

TuRtLe
~~~
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/31/2006 6:40:10 PM | message detail
I'M A FLAMING DOUCHE

Happy?

TuRtLe
~~~
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/31/2006 6:41:03 PM | message detail
No.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 10/31/2006 6:42:15 PM | message detail
I'M A FLAMING DOUCHE ~ Black Turtle

Somebody needs to add that to their sig. >_>
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trannyscience | Posted 10/31/2006 6:43:26 PM | message detail
why? it's implied.

anyway, even if you use the strongest KOS and a constant Zelda, Zelda still wins with 53%. Aeris has a chance to win, but Zelda is clearly the favourite.
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zizzy
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/31/2006 6:48:02 PM | message detail
If Aeris beats Zelda tomorrow, I'll eat my copy of Suikoden V.

And now I fully expect Aeris to win with a doubling. >_>
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creativename | Posted 10/31/2006 6:52:31 PM | message detail
Here's some fun with numbers.

Aeris got 43.46% on Snake in 2K2 and Zelda got 45.59% against Snake in 2K5. That works out to Zelda with 52.34%.

Assuming that Tifa's overperformance or whatever on Vyse was the same as Zelda's overperformance on Terra, and setting Aeris=Tifa (2K5) works out to Zelda with 50.9%. (this is a pretty shaky line of logic, but eh)

And of course Aeris' best performance relative to Link is better than Zelda's. Though Link probably was stronger last year than when Aeris was last around. It's their respective performances this year though that make Zelda such a big favorite over Aeris, and not their historical performances; as well as pre-contest confidence in Nintendo.

Aeris does have stuff in her favor, it's just drowned out by people's pre-contest faith in Zelda, how great Zelda looked last round, and how bad Aeris looked. However Tifa's performance today is pretty good too.

I really do think tomorrow's match can be close.
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