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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 412

TehMissingLink | Posted 10/30/2006 11:03:06 PM | message detail
It won't hurt, but I doubt it helps much either. The fact that Aeris barely benefited in 2003 after having Kingdom Hearts gives me no faith in something she's even more distant from doing much of anything. It certainly isn't going to tip the scales or cause any crazy result at least.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
transience | Posted 10/31/2006 12:47:22 AM | message detail
Tifa's at 66% but not doing much more.. you'd think during these hours Tifa would really jump in percentage but she's pretty much staying constant. she's got a pretty terrible day vote as well. she dropped about 3% to Luigi and 3.5 to Sonic. she even lost it to the friggin' boss. no idea why she's so bad in the day compared to Vincent, but whatever.

I'm not sure Peach has much of one either though - it looks like she won the before-school vote vs. Jill, but then lost it all the way until the afterschool vote. when the afterschool vote came, she only won it by 1% against a freakin' Resident Evil character. to compare, Kairi won it by 2.5% against Claire.

so I'd say 65.5-66% is a good guess at where this will end. Tifa might increase this lead during the dead hours and once the before-school vote ends and Peach should take the afterschool vote, though it won't be anything like Luigi or Sonic.

FF12 could help her in the day, I suppose. if we see a huge vote total out of this match, that could be some kind of hint. let's see how we're doing here..

3:35

Tifa/Boss: 23547
Samus/Rikku: 22696
Tifa/Peach: 22593
Peach/Jill: 21429

so far, nothin'. Tifa's been a big vote draw in previous matches, or at least in the TJF-fest that was Tifa/Ivy. Peach, though...

oh and x-stats, just for kicks. if this ends at 66%..

based on a constant Tifa: Peach at 22.82%
based on a constant Jill: Tifa at 32.54% (projected to get 39.03% on Samus)
based on a constant Hayabusa: 34.93% (projected to get 41.89% on Samus)

Tifa has probably increased though (KH2 and all), so Peach looks to be a low midcarder instead of the fodder some people were touting. the higher she goes though, the closer and closer Sheena gets to the fodder line. Sheena = Kratos? hmm..

conclusion: lol
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xyzzy
Kaxon | Posted 10/31/2006 1:44:27 AM | message detail
Tifa's still going up here (as she needs to be, since this will probably be her best time in the match) - after stuttering a bit, she's broken 70% for five straight updates.

Tifa's % by hour:
0:00 - 1:00: 64.59%
1:00 - 2:00: 66.21%
2:00 - 3:00: 69.04%
3:00 - 4:00: 67.59%
4:00 - 4:40: 69.59%
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....TCELES B HSUP
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/31/2006 2:08:55 AM | message detail
Tifa is doing much worse then what I expected, she can't even double freaking Peach :(

I blame the horrible picture.
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Supporter of Chun Li
Sir Chris | Posted 10/31/2006 2:18:44 AM | message detail
lol xstats

ill Valentine 32.96% 32,933
Tifa 67.04% 66,983
TOTAL VOTES 99,917
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I felt the force of two true patriots: The Boss, who pwned Celes, and XIII, who is the superior bracketmaker!
I cry every morning when I have to wake up and realize I'm not Sir Chris. - LiselTestify
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/31/2006 2:38:30 AM | message detail
finally peach has been doubled.

And what the hell is going on? Two matches in a row that goes as the X-Stats says? How is that possible?
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Supporter of Chun Li
Master Moltar | Posted 10/31/2006 5:06:38 AM | message detail
Oh thank you Tifa. I nearly forgot about your great night vote. Way to at least bring it up to the doubling.

Too bad Peach is looking to chop off percentage in the afternoon though...
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Tifa vs. Peach - Bracket: Tifa - Vote: Tifa (60/68)
Iamyoursnake | Posted 10/31/2006 5:13:16 AM | message detail
Tifa-Extremely vulunerable to sunlight and therefore weak to day votes.

Peach-Love to sunbathe and therefore can absorb sunlight thus is strong to day votes

Peach will break 35% at the end of the day. Bank, bet , bomb, bat, boob on it.
zwong1 | Posted 10/31/2006 5:14:37 AM | message detail
Iamyoursnake, are you another alt of Smurf.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
Iamyoursnake | Posted 10/31/2006 5:15:44 AM | message detail
Yes, i just ate my dinner.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/31/2006 5:17:01 AM | message detail
35%? She'll probably approach 35%. I doubt she'll actually break it.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
zwong1 | Posted 10/31/2006 5:17:55 AM | message detail
I will break 99% on Iamyoursnake in a duel.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
Tediz247 | Posted 10/31/2006 5:52:56 AM | message detail
Go Peach, avoid the doubling! Anything to make Sheena look better.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/31/2006 6:11:59 AM | message detail
Tifa is still getting enough votes to just maintain the doubling in the morning even. Now this may not even drop under 66%.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/31/2006 6:53:41 AM | message detail
That Nintendo morning vote might be enough to bring Tifa under 66% here, though I don't know how much she'll recover before the after school vote either.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
Haste_2 | Posted 10/31/2006 6:56:31 AM | message detail
I find it strange that Vincent is so much better in the day (worse at night) than Tifa (and probably Aeris)...is it because of DoC?

Vincent didn't lose much of the day vote against Ganondorf OR Sonic. Meanwhile, Bowser -creamed- Crono with the day vote (especially in the morning)...kinda interesting, considering Vincent barely rose in the day against Crono the previous year. And, of course, Sonic gained gobs more with the day vote against Tifa than against Vincent.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/31/2006 6:56:32 AM | message detail
I think Tifa will rebound well enough over the next five or so hours, but the after school vote will propel Peach way into 34-ish territory.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/31/2006 7:00:51 AM | message detail
Vincent's day vote was decent last year, too. He never lost it, at any rate. Of course, he wasn't facing day vote champs either. Cloud and Sephiroth are both very good with the day vote, so I don't understand why Tifa isn't. Aeris hasn't shown any signs of being good with it either.

...Maybe FFVII fans are displaying some weird sort of sexism.

Preliminary stats based on Samus/Rikku:

Samus Aran – 41.69%
Rikku – 25.85%
Kairi – 21.57%
Claire Redfield – 20.67%
Ada Wong – 16.86%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 12.93%
Jade – 8.13%

Spazer Division Stats

Samus Aran – 50.00%
Rikku – 31.00%
Kairi – 25.87%
Claire Redfield – 24.79%
Ada Wong – 20.22%
Nidoran F – 18.15%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 15.50%
Jade – 9.75%
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/31/2006 7:03:58 AM | message detail
So if Peach ends with 34%, the who's stronger, Jill or Claire?
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Supporter of Chun Li
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/31/2006 7:05:03 AM | message detail
Jill, but not by a lot.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
Yesmar | Posted 10/31/2006 7:47:37 AM | message detail
If Sheena ends up ahead of Lloyd, I'm gonna call shenanigans with his matches last year because that will mean Kratos, Sheena and *Mithos* all impressed more than him, which doesn't make any sense to me.

I know there's a hatebase for Lloyd, but it's never seemed more vocal than Tidus's or Squall's. I've been to the ToS boards before and it never seemed that prevalent to me.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Who Cares? | Posted 10/31/2006 8:00:40 AM | message detail
It's not a hatebase, but rather fans prefer Sheena a bit more...is it really that difficult to believe that Lloyd isn't that popular as far as being a main character? I've always seen the fanbase itself as: Kratos > Sheena/Zelos => Lloyd > everybody else > Colette
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd)
*Go play Tales of the Abyss NOW!!*
Yesmar | Posted 10/31/2006 8:03:40 AM | message detail
Tidus isn't that popular as a main character either to the general public, but he still does much better than Rikku for instance.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/31/2006 8:07:48 AM | message detail
I fail to see how Lloyd being weaker than the rest of his cast is surprising, especially after seeing Teedus bomb year after year while Auron is near elite. Not to mention Yuna looking to be stronger than him.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/31/2006 8:10:09 AM | message detail
Go Peach go! ^_^

DESTROY THAT ****ING *****! TURNIP, UMBRELLA, WHATEVER! I DON'T CARE, JUST MASH TIFA'S FACE THX
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Who Cares? | Posted 10/31/2006 8:10:51 AM | message detail
ToS seems to be just one of those games that just doesn't fall in with the typical Hero>Villian>Sidekick/Supporting hirearcy. Personally, it'd shocke me more if Sheena was significantly lower than Lloyd rather than closer to Kratos.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd)
*Go play Tales of the Abyss NOW!!*
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/31/2006 8:11:36 AM | message detail
He's better than Rikku, but not amazingly so. Samus getting 69% on Rikku doesn't seem all that different to me than Megaman getting 65% on Tidus.

Kratos being better than Lloyd is definitely believable, because he definitely plays that game's Auron. Hell, his last name even sounds like Auron >_>

And if Kratos can kick Lloyd's ass, Sheena merely being on Lloyd's general level is not all that strange
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Yesmar | Posted 10/31/2006 8:12:43 AM | message detail
This just makes Crono >>>>> Magus all the more confusing.

But again, I've never played Chrono Trigger, so maybe Magus's popularity within the fanbase is overrated.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/31/2006 8:19:17 AM | message detail
I fail to see how Lloyd being weaker than the rest of his cast is surprising, especially after seeing Teedus bomb year after year while Auron is near elite. Not to mention Yuna looking to be stronger than him.

Yuna and Rikku both have FFX-2. It's logical for Kratos/Lloyd to be in an Auron/Tidus style relationship, but it doesn't make all that much sense for Sheena to be stronger than Lloyd...after all, she doesn't have ToS-2 or anything.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/31/2006 8:22:25 AM | message detail
Yes, but you're forgetting that Sheena has big boobs
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/31/2006 8:31:32 AM | message detail
Not as big as Kerrigan's!
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/31/2006 8:42:01 AM | message detail
Kerrigan is scrambled porn.

In other news, my internet sucks. :( Bloody builders cut the phoneline off, so I've had to fashion a very tempramental dialup. It's literally crashing every other page. X_X

By the way, what does Bowser's performance on Crono say about Leon? Around 37-ish on Crono, right?

Heh, and as I type this, the internet crashed again. XD @ this.
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AC2K6 Score: 64/68 Today: Tifa
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/31/2006 8:46:40 AM | message detail
From Yesmar
This just makes Crono >>>>> Magus all the more confusing.

But again, I've never played Chrono Trigger, so maybe Magus's popularity within the fanbase is overrated.


See, the problem with Tidus, Zidane and (apparantly) Lloyd, is that they are a group of annoying asshats that have no backbone and no redeeming qualities. Crono doesn't have these weaknesses, with him being a mute badass and all.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/31/2006 8:48:01 AM | message detail
And the reason I said Zidane is because I'd fully expect Vivi to double him.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/31/2006 8:48:12 AM | message detail
All of those character have a backbone, but they are all annoying asshats that's for sure
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Who Cares? | Posted 10/31/2006 8:51:25 AM | message detail
See, the problem with Tidus, Zidane and (apparantly) Lloyd, is that they are a group of annoying asshats that have no backbone and no redeeming qualities.

Uhh, I'm not sure how that fits it with Lloyd? If there's anything people don't like about him, is that people find him a bit too idealistic & is (intellectually speaking) an idiot.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd)
*Go play Tales of the Abyss NOW!!*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/31/2006 8:52:41 AM | message detail
My point is that people not on Board 8 tend to like badass characters, as evidenced by Auron's strength compared to Teedus. People don't want "realistic" characters, they want characters that can kick ass and take names.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/31/2006 8:53:39 AM | message detail
Though Kefka's strength relative to his cast is a bit of a mystery. Guess that proves how kickass a villain he is that he can be more popular than all the main characters in FF6.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
FourthDeus | Posted 10/31/2006 8:55:48 AM | message detail
How is Zidane "spineless"?
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/31/2006 9:50:41 AM | message detail
In 2k5, Lloyd was expected to get 36.1% on Ryu Hayabusa. Sheena got 37.97% on Jill Valentine. Hayabusa was expected to get 35.4% on Tifa. Peach is currently at 33.59% on Tifa. Nothing's really all that off, unless Peach really takes off this afternoon, or Tifa's way stronger than she was last year. Things look even better if Zero was underrated (lol).
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/31/2006 10:04:35 AM | message detail
Vivi is stronger than Zidane because he's a Black Mage. That is the only reason that matters, and if you disagree then you are agreeing with (or are) Black Turtle, in which case I lol in your general direction.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/31/2006 10:04:50 AM | message detail
How is Zidane "spineless"?

It's Turtle.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/31/2006 10:05:43 AM | message detail
...And I just realized I have to start dodging FFXII topics today. Ahh crap. Hopefully, I don't get anything spoiled for me in the next month or so before I can play it.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/31/2006 10:39:57 AM | message detail
lol Turtle
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
KingBartz | Posted 10/31/2006 10:54:28 AM | message detail
Wyvlayne banned? WHAT HAPPEN!
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 60/66 Today's pick: Tifa Lockhart
Big Bob | Posted 10/31/2006 11:50:56 AM | message detail
It's been announced that there will be a new Super Smash Bros. Brawl trailer in November, and it will reveal a new character.

If Sonic is the character, Crono is so screwed

>_<
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
transience | Posted 10/31/2006 12:04:46 PM | message detail
the afterschool vote comes and looks to be good to Peach. 65.5 would be my guess when this is all done, though Tifa is up there with FF6 characters in day vote suckiness.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 10/31/2006 12:38:40 PM | message detail
I predict the new SSBB character will be a Nintendo character, and they will save the rest of their outside-the-company surprises for when its release is much closer.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/31/2006 12:40:06 PM | message detail
Oh, and Wy got banned 'cuz he posted all the spoilers of FF12 as "bold predictions"...

...BOLD PREDICTION: This post will not be ban-worthy.
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http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1)
BDawg | Posted 10/31/2006 12:41:08 PM | message detail
Looks like Peach is charging towards the 34% barrier full steam ahead.
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Should I start running now?