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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 412

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/29/2006 10:04:20 PM | message detail
Our next good match isn't until Snake / Mega Man. Jeeeeeeeeeez.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games (down for now, so here's a new link):
http://transience.paragonsigma.com/top100.txt

Manual Poll Updater:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/pollupdate.php
Aprosenf | Posted 10/29/2006 10:04:59 PM | message detail
Darn tootin. The female bracket sure does suck.
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If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. Then try to find someone whose life has given them vodka.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 10:05:32 PM | message detail
Well, Zelda/Aeris might be good.

I dunno, round 3 just seems to be a set-up round getting us ready for the climactic Noble Nine showdowns.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
Draco1214 | Posted 10/29/2006 10:06:17 PM | message detail
I hope Snake wins, my bracket be damned!
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Currently Playing: Okami, King of Fighters 2002/2003, Gradius V
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/29/2006 10:06:54 PM | message detail
Our next good match isn't until Snake / Yoshi. Jeeeeeeeeeez.

Fix'd! If you tell yourself things over and over, it becomes true! Yoshi > Snake!
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/29/2006 10:06:59 PM | message detail
From THEJackSparrow Posted 10/30/2006 1:05:32 AM #003
Well, Zelda/Aeris might be good.

I dunno, round 3 just seems to be a set-up round getting us ready for the climactic Noble Nine showdowns.


Somehow I think these NN matches will be as anti-climactic as the gauntlet from last year, with all of them going as the stats say they should.

So in my mind, our next truly in the air match is the battle royale.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 10:07:13 PM | message detail
Snake/Mega Man and on will be an awesome set of matches. But there are some good matches before that, despite how many of them shouldn't be all that close.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 10:08:21 PM | message detail
What? Ulti being a stathead? HAX

And the stats have Mega Man > Snake and Crono > Sonic, so we know that's not gonna happen anyway!
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 10:08:49 PM | message detail
Leon knows what's up!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/29/2006 10:12:47 PM | message detail
It's not being a stathead so much as asking what these characters have done to change in strength. The only variable is Snake being in SSBB and the MGS4 trailer, personally. Or maybe I'm wrong, who knows.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/30/2006 4:17:43 AM | message detail
I'm tellin you guys, Chun Li vs Yuna has some potential
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 3:40:26 PM | message detail
Savvy?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/30/2006 3:42:38 PM | message detail
Hmm, what if you think Axel would own Kairi, cause personally that's what I'd predict to happen in that match.

By own I mean 55/45 or greater differential in Axel's favor.


Using a constant Samus, and assuming Rikku finishes at 31%, Kairi is at 21.56% on BL.

If Axel beats Kairi 55/45 indirectly, Axel is at 23.96 on BL, well above Riku and unadjusted Sora and just edging out Yuna 2k5. Mega Man ends up at 39.76, more or less dead even with Crono 2k5.

...so as long as Axel beats half the 2k5 field, Mega Man's looking good!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/30/2006 3:43:47 PM | message detail
FIght Megaman for everlasting peace!


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Supporter of Chun Li
trannyscience | Posted 10/30/2006 3:44:03 PM | message detail
hmm, if Samus is constant and Axel = Kairi, MM would be expected to get 72.20% on Axel. he got.. *looks* 69.87%. MM would be at 35.80% on BL and would lose to a constant Snake with 48.65% of the vote if I did everything right.

uhhh let's go axel > link

*shrugs again*

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zizzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/30/2006 3:44:07 PM | message detail
Axel beating half the field wouldn't be that much of an accomplishment. lol female bracket

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/30/2006 3:44:22 PM | message detail
Yes, Snake, fight Mega Man!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/30/2006 3:45:12 PM | message detail
Axel beating half the field wouldn't be that much of an accomplishment. lol female bracket

Half the 2005 field.
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/30/2006 3:45:33 PM | message detail
yoshi fodder won't beat Megaman >_>
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Supporter of Chun Li
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/30/2006 3:45:42 PM | message detail
Oh.

Damnit, MM! The one year I take you to win it all you drop like a rock.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
WilhuffTarkin | Posted 10/30/2006 3:46:06 PM | message detail
Has Samus underperformed/Rikku overperformed today? I'm not so familiar with the projected results and all, but I kind of figured Samus would break 70% comfortably.
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/30/2006 3:47:20 PM | message detail
Samus is doing a bit better than projected, but Rikku was thought to be slightly overrated thanks to Snake/Bowser. It's more impressive on Rikku's part, I guess, but it's really only the smallest of margins.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/30/2006 3:51:25 PM | message detail
Waaait, wait, wait. I missed a perfect opportunity to show off my position as an Ashe fanboy in the end of the last topic? Why did I have to take a nap? D:

Anyways, Ashe would break the Noble Nine and even beat Link next year if Zelda weren't about to do it this year. No other Final Fantasy XII character is going to even come close to getting 20% on BL.

>_>

<_<

>_<
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 3:51:57 PM | message detail
Zelda...beat Link?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/30/2006 3:52:52 PM | message detail
Whatever happens in future contests, you can always count on one thing remaining true. No Nintendo character is ever beating Link.

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Can't think of a good sig.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/30/2006 3:54:09 PM | message detail
*getting higher than

Yeah, Zelda will rSFF Link into oblivion. Nobody actually has really played those games, and so they'll vote for the person the game is named after over some random word taken out of the dictionary.
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
WilhuffTarkin | Posted 10/30/2006 3:57:54 PM | message detail
Whatever happens in future contests, you can always count on one thing remaining true. No Nintendo character is ever beating Link.


You can count on ANOTHER thing too! No matter what, GFN... GFN... *sniff*
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 3:58:38 PM | message detail
GFNMAC!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
nobleIII | Posted 10/30/2006 4:00:55 PM | message detail
He's right. No nintendo character will EVER beat Link.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/30/2006 4:01:44 PM | message detail
Oh, man, amazing contest revelations right hurr.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 4:03:49 PM | message detail
...What if the rest of the Zelda series becomes a continuation of Wand of Gamelon?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/30/2006 4:04:01 PM | message detail
Yoshi would green rSFF Link into the ground.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/30/2006 4:04:39 PM | message detail
In a non-sprite round rematch, I must add.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/30/2006 4:09:05 PM | message detail
Yoshi's only weakness is sprites?

Snake with 60%+!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/30/2006 4:11:39 PM | message detail
Yoshi is only second to Snake with SWS (Sprite Weakness Syndrome).

So the dino still has a chance there!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64)
Big Bob | Posted 10/30/2006 4:19:07 PM | message detail
I've mentioned this before, but no one's paid any attention to me.

If Samus got a Zero Suit Samus pic in the final round, how would that affect her performance?
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
BDawg | Posted 10/30/2006 4:33:04 PM | message detail
I don't see how it would matter much at all unless you either believe in TJF or that people would suddenly go "whoa omg who da hell is Samus"?
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Should I start running now?
red sox 777 | Posted 10/30/2006 4:49:04 PM | message detail
I get the feeling she would lose to any of the potential male winners with a Zero Suit pic. She just wouldn't be recognizable to her SSB/M fanbase.
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"........!" ~Magus
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/30/2006 4:51:09 PM | message detail
You'd think the voters would recognize the name, "Samus Aran", though. Then again, you'd think the same for "Solid Snake" and his sprite even moreso. I guess I'd go with the idea it would hurt her, if only slightly.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/30/2006 4:52:41 PM | message detail
At the looks of things, if Ryu and Rikku are still proportional, Samus beats Mega Man with about 58.5% (assuming Samus ends maybe .2% higher than she is now). =p

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Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/30/2006 5:02:01 PM | message detail
It doesn't matter if Samus gets a Zero Suit picture, since she'll have several other pictures rotating with it, possibly seven others.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/30/2006 5:04:43 PM | message detail
Yeah, there's no way Samus is getting negatively affected on any meaningful level if ZSS were to pop up somewhere. Theoretically though, I'd expect her to be a lil' weaker with it, even if the weakness were more or less insignificant.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/30/2006 5:27:09 PM | message detail
Big Bob
Posted 10/30/2006 7:19:07 PM
#036 I've mentioned this before, but no one's paid any attention to me.

If Samus got a Zero Suit Samus pic in the final round, how would that affect her performance?


lol multiple match picks for the finals

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/30/2006 5:28:26 PM | message detail
And Rikku is impressing here. For someone that was behind Snake/Bowser going up against a possibly underrated Samus, she's getting pretty close to what was projected.

Unless this is more proof that Ryu/Bowser went fishy.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/30/2006 5:30:16 PM | message detail
I wish there was a way to put all the characters back into the contest and still make it interesting. A contest minus Samus and Crono is going to suck. Whats the point if it gets to where you no longer care about anyone in it?

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Can't think of a good sig.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/30/2006 5:31:31 PM | message detail
If Bowser/Ryu was fishy, Samus is virtually a lock to win the main bracket.

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Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/30/2006 5:33:00 PM | message detail
He'll never completely get rid of the champions. He'll always have some sort of ToC. And after Crono/Samus are gone, it will be entirely possible for the winner to change on a yearly basis, what with characters lik Ganondorf, Dante andd Vincent looking to rise and fall like the tide.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
HaRRicH | Posted 10/30/2006 5:56:18 PM | message detail
Feedback - Review Message
I have a question for "Ask GameFAQs"
Message From HaRRicH at 2006-10-28 23:25:28
You host lots of contests that are primarily based on the popularity of video game-related entries (mainly characters, though you have for games and series as well). Will you ever announce a contest for non-game-related entries (movie characters, music bands, etc.)?
Feedback Status: Filed - Your message has been "filed" away for future perusal.



Maybe we will get some insight if this will ever happen or not soon, heh.
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http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1)
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 10/30/2006 5:58:06 PM | message detail
Non-game related stuff on GameFAQs? Ew, no.
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/30/2006 6:26:49 PM | message detail
From The_Lady_Ashe Posted 10/30/2006 8:58:06 PM #049
Non-game related stuff on GameFAQs? Ew, no.

^^`

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX