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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 411

MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/30/2006 3:22:02 AM | message detail
Using Ryu vs MM, Rikku is expected to get about 37% on Mega Man.

I think Samus' doing fine so far.
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Yoshi vs. Dante/ Bracket: Dante / Vote: Yoshi (46/50)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Sora / Vote: Gordon
__hiei__ | Posted 10/30/2006 3:47:05 AM | message detail
Cloud and Sephiroth will SFF crono to hell in the battle royal

Crono can't be SFFd by FF7 stuff

look at FF7 vs CT in the game contest.no Sff whatsoever
jonthomson | Posted 10/30/2006 3:49:59 AM | message detail
Crono > Sephiroth, book it
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Jon Thomson - Z1mZum pwned me good and proper.
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/30/2006 3:54:30 AM | message detail
Crono > Sephiroth is quite realistic.
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
transience | Posted 10/30/2006 4:16:07 AM | message detail
Samus is still bleeding percentage (albeit not as much) during the morning vote?

the Nintendo hour that is the first hour of the poll can make any Nintendo character look bad - there's nowhere to go but down from there. the afterschool vote will probably come with 68-69% updates regularly, but I wouldn't expect Samus to hit her 68% projection.
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xyzzy
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/30/2006 4:16:31 AM | message detail
I assume Crono and Sephiroth have never met in a contest setting....quick, get me some Crono/Cloud stats pronto >_>
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Lady Ashe | Posted 10/30/2006 4:17:59 AM | message detail
Crono > Sephiroth is realistic in the Battle Royale setting, that is. One on one, Sephiroth would easily beat him.
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
cyko | Posted 10/30/2006 4:19:44 AM | message detail
actually, for some reason, Samus's before-school vote started later than usual in both of her previous matches. i don't know why, but her before-school vote started around 7:15 Eastern each time. *shrugs* Samus should still finish around 69%.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
Who Cares? | Posted 10/30/2006 4:29:05 AM | message detail
Heh, good job Rikku. I woke up expecting to seeing her around 30%, and now here she is at 32.65% exceeding her x-stat projection for this match. It's looking like Ryu didn't really fluke against Mega Man afterall...and that's good for him! :)
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd)
*Go play Tales of the Abyss NOW!!*
zwong1 | Posted 10/30/2006 4:43:44 AM | message detail
Lets hope Sora can break 44-45% on Megaman.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
ccbfan | Posted 10/30/2006 5:10:43 AM | message detail
I predict the Battle Royale to go like this. (If Samus and Crono makes it)

1.Samus is out first. She's gonna get SSFed by Link and Mario like crazy.

2.Seph will be out next. Yes Crono and MArio will beat Seph out. As seen with FF7 vs CT there is not much SSF between Crono and Seph. Mario on the otherhand will stay since the Square voters have 3 choice to spread their votes while Nintendo only has two.

3.Mario will be out next. Link vs MArio greatly favors Link while Crono vs Cloud does not greatly favor cloud. Plus Crono is still somewhat of a Nintendo character and will steal some of the Nintendo votes.

4.Crono will drop since Cloud > Crono

5.Cloud will drop

6.Leaving like everyone expected, Link as the winner.
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 10/30/2006 5:13:51 AM | message detail
Stop making judgements on Ryu/Megaman based on last year. >_<

Remember the villains contest? Remember how noteable Villains overperformed in that? Well expect the same from this. It's no coincidence that iconic females like Lara Croft, Yuna, Rikku etc. are overperforming here. It's the contest that's in it.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 10/30/2006 5:15:03 AM | message detail
Rikku and Yuna are iconic?
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/30/2006 5:34:29 AM | message detail
From PlatinumSmurf
Stop making judgements on Ryu/Megaman based on last year. >_<

Remember the villains contest? Remember how noteable Villains overperformed in that? Well expect the same from this. It's no coincidence that iconic females like Lara Croft, Yuna, Rikku etc. are overperforming here. It's the contest that's in it.


Huh?

The only females that I would say are "iconic" are Samus, Peach, Chunners and Lara.

TuRtLe
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55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/30/2006 5:40:07 AM | message detail
Cloud has never shown to have any significant SFF on Sephiroth. Seeing Sephiroth go out 5th seems just as likely as Sephiroth outlasting Cloud to me. That is, not very much so. Sephiroth is almost as popular as Cloud and they generally split the vote almost 50-50. So if Sephiroth goes out in 5th, that would mean that Cloud would also be a mere 1-2% away from last place as well. I have a hard time seeing that happen. At the least, Sephiroth will outlast Crono
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
zwong1 | Posted 10/30/2006 6:55:49 AM | message detail
I agree with noob avenger. Sephiroth will definitely outlast Crono.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/30/2006 7:00:22 AM | message detail
In Terms of "Girly Gaming", Yuna and Rikku are iconic since they were the stars of probably the best selling game aimed at girls ever. (Excluding The Sims and Nintendogs).

I'd say they're iconic because they're girls aimed at girls. While Lara and Samus are just eye candy aimed at male gamers.
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/30/2006 7:03:30 AM | message detail
And for the internet, the most iconic female would easily be Tifa. In the real world, it's easily Lara.

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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
janembaman | Posted 10/30/2006 7:06:55 AM | message detail
Remember the villains contest? Remember how noteable Villains overperformed in that? Well expect the same from this. It's no coincidence that iconic females like Lara Croft, Yuna, Rikku etc. are overperforming here. It's the contest that's in it.

And we can also say that Zero lost because Mario is missing(lol>_>) from the contest,can't we?
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laff
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/30/2006 7:08:43 AM | message detail
If you're suggesting that Luigi is acting as a Mario Proxy, I don't see how that would work.
Last year, Link was missing and Zelda/Ganondorf did nothing special. Same goes for the FF7 team.
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
__hiei__ | Posted 10/30/2006 7:12:45 AM | message detail
Lara WAS iconic

Tomb Raider is pretty much dead by now.i don't know many people who care about lara anymore
Haste_2 | Posted 10/30/2006 8:05:09 AM | message detail
Darn. I was thinking Rikku would do worse than Frog. Not quite... Naturally you'd want to say the Nintendo gets the after-school vote, but...I'm not so sure. Samus -should-...

Anyway, using Samus' current percent, 68.10%, she's expected to get 56.09% on Bowser. Crono just got 57.44% on Bowser. Don't you DARE lose, Samus!

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 8:08:01 AM | message detail
Choke, Samus, choke!

She looks to be on the upswing in a big way right now though. We'll see how high she goes.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/30/2006 8:28:35 AM | message detail
If she does even better than this after-school she may almost match her performance against Frog.

Har har Rikku=Frog
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Big Bob | Posted 10/30/2006 8:33:30 AM | message detail
If Samus got her Zero Suit Samus pic, would she over or underperform?
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/30/2006 8:33:35 AM | message detail
CHANGING THE SUBJECT WOO!

So after what Crono did to Bowser...how good a chance does Sonic have against him now? I'm still skeptical as to how much Crono can actually boost... all Bowser IMO.

Then again, I took Sonic. >_>
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AC2K6 Score: 60/64 Today: Samus
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/30/2006 8:35:29 AM | message detail
Samus' percentage by the hour!

11:00 | 69.51%
10:00 | 70.14%
09:00 | 69.54%
08:00 | 67.92%
07:00 | 64.92%
06:00 | 63.21%
05:00 | 60.61%
04:00 | 65.68%
03:00 | 67.58%
02:00 | 68.32%
01:00 | 71.16%

Major ouch at the 4-5 hour, but she's recovered quite nicely with the morning vote, and she should take the after school vote, too. Samus could still push for 70%, though I think she'll end up short.
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Mustache...and green...
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KingBartz | Posted 10/30/2006 9:15:16 AM | message detail
heh. I totally overestimated Rikku because... I have no ****ing idea. What was I thinking...?
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 58/64 Today's pick: Samus Aran
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 9:32:12 AM | message detail
Wow...Samus barely broke 60% at the 5:00 hour. Impressive for Rikku.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/30/2006 10:05:23 AM | message detail
So, Samus actually didn't do any better with the after-school vote than she did with the morning vote against Nidoran F.

She didn't do worse, but she didn't do better either. If that's the case here then I guess 70% is rules out. Hell, 69% may even be ruled out...
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 10:06:07 AM | message detail
Basically, it looks like the stats win!

LOL Voters are robots
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
HaRRicH | Posted 10/30/2006 10:27:19 AM | message detail
lollerobots
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GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/30/2006 10:45:56 AM | message detail
lolbots
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mmm feel the vibration baby
BDawg | Posted 10/30/2006 10:57:57 AM | message detail
I think it's says something about the state of the contest when in the third round it's "impressive" for one character to ALMOST break 40% on the other in ONE hour. Lol female bracket.
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Should I start running now?
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 11:02:16 AM | message detail
It's really got nothing to do with the female bracket as it is the fact that it's Rikku doing that to Samus when she's barely breaking 30% right now.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/30/2006 11:03:54 AM | message detail
Hopefully Samus gets the afterschool vote and pushes back up to around 69%.

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Can't think of a good sig.
BDawg | Posted 10/30/2006 11:06:30 AM | message detail
That's the whole point Rikku shouldn't even be in a round 3 match. I mean Squall, Ryu, Vincent, and Bowser were all over 40% in the actual totals and those were round 2 matches.
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Should I start running now?
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/30/2006 11:08:42 AM | message detail
If Rikku were stronger, it would be the same thing. Except we'd be saying how it was impressive for her to get 50% when she only had 40%, or something.

Eh, nevermind.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 11:15:51 AM | message detail
Yeah...Something like that. Either way, from the looks of Samus's updates, unless she slaughters the after school vote, she won't hit 70% here, but 69% is well within reach.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
transience | Posted 10/30/2006 11:56:39 AM | message detail
man, how do you go from constant 56% updates to 75% ones in the morning? I wonder if that was just the awesome FF10 night vote we saw last year. if so, Rikku could hurt come a few minutes.
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xyzzy
DpObliVion | Posted 10/30/2006 11:59:58 AM | message detail
Will Samus finish over 70%?

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/30/2006 12:00:00 PM | message detail
Well I think the past 35 minutes qualifies as slaughter. Since if she keeps that up, she'll have 70% by just after 10 PM.

Of course, even if she does keep it up, she'll probably slow down approaching 10 PM, and then even lose some after 10. But 69.5% is within her reach if she can keep it up.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
DpObliVion | Posted 10/30/2006 12:01:19 PM | message detail
Answered in 2 seconds, cool.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/30/2006 12:01:25 PM | message detail
Afterschool vote hasn't even started yet...

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Can't think of a good sig.
Samurai7 | Posted 10/30/2006 12:02:32 PM | message detail
Afterschool vote hasn't even started yet...

yes it has
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/30/2006 12:03:12 PM | message detail
Speaking of slaughter, Samus took in 71.26% of the vote between 2 and 3, which is generally a good hour for the character that wins the night vote. Instead, Samus had her best hour yet (even moreso than the Nintendo Hour). The after school vote cometh early?
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/30/2006 12:03:54 PM | message detail
Nice percentage recovery by Rikku -- it certainly makes Ryu look better, but it doesn't look like it's going to last, either. Samus is rising very fast right now, she should still end up above her original projection.

Assuming a constant Crono and using Bowser 2k6, Rikku is at 24.70 on BL, a little above Diablo's value. Samus is expected to get 70.38% on that Rikku, which I don't think she'll get. That could mean weakness on Samus' part, strength on Ryu's, or a combination of both. Or just random variation, really, as it's not going to be *too* far off that projection by the time Samus is done here.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/30/2006 12:09:50 PM | message detail
And then Samus goes and has one of her most unimpressive 15 minute periods in a while.

Maybe 2:20 to 2:55 was just one big fluke X_X
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 12:11:28 PM | message detail
Rikku slowing it down a bit. Didn't expect that.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
transience | Posted 10/30/2006 12:23:46 PM | message detail
she did do pretty well vs. Kairi, who looked to be a day vote champ in her match against Claire.. then again, it was Claire.

Samus probably does increase to 69% here. pretty good show by Samus if you ask me.
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xyzzy