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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 411

charmander6000 | Posted 10/29/2006 9:27:22 PM | message detail
Poor Mega Man...
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 9:27:55 PM | message detail
Meh, I don't think Mega Man overperformed on her. I don't want to give Lara Croft too much credit...
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:28:25 PM | message detail
Well, Zelda is the second if not the strongest character outside of the noble nine and Mega Man is easily the weakest of them. It would be closer than Vincent/Sonic, at the very least.
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 9:28:28 PM | message detail
MM/Zelda is like Samus/Ganon to me - maybe a percent or two, but nothing worth worrying about at this point.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:28:58 PM | message detail
From transience
I would take Rikku over Frog without thinking twice..

I sure as hell wouldn't.

It took everything going his way for Frog to make his 2k4 run, but under no circumstance do I see Rikku even coming close to what Frog did to Solid ****.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 9:29:06 PM | message detail
I was saying it more as in "it's a rematch where the loser would do much better but won't win" as opposed to "the loser will under-perform again although improve."

I would agree that she wouldn't win in a rematch, at least not until TP !! =p

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 9:29:22 PM | message detail
The idea of Zelda being a Noble Nine breaker just makes me sad...It just shouldn't happen.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2006 9:29:26 PM | message detail
Oh, I definitely believed he overperformed on Mega Man. A character like Ryu "rebounding" just doesn't make any sense. He's a bigger industry legend than even some Noble 9 members, so he isn't put in the immediate disadvantage most others have to deal with when facing the likes of Mega Man or Sonic. Couple that with a huge picture advantage, and you have a Ryu overperformance.

Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if characters like Ryu are tailor-made to overperform on bigger legends without ever looking too dominant against weaker opponents.
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I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 9:29:33 PM | message detail
...I hardly think Zelda is reversing a 60-40 blowout like that, even if we're talking about 2003 results. I wouldn't take that upset even after TP, unless MM just bombed like crazy this year.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/29/2006 9:29:52 PM | message detail
As for my opinion on Ryu, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here. Characters have bad years all the time. Sonic seemed to rebound after his horrible year in 2003. Same for Snake in 2004. Why couldn't Ryu do the same?
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Currently Playing: Okami, King of Fighters 2002/2003, Gradius V
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 9:30:06 PM | message detail
...Rikku doesn't have to come anywhere close to what Frog did to Snake to beat him. What part of an overperformance don't you understand?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 9:30:08 PM | message detail
Zelda isn't going to beat the KING OF SFF, silly.
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xyzzy
Big Bob | Posted 10/29/2006 9:30:09 PM | message detail
Actually, with the way Mega Man's been acting, I'd take Zelda over him.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/29/2006 9:30:11 PM | message detail
Ehh? Zelda would definitely get over 45% on MM. I doubt she gets as close as Vincent did on Sonic this year though.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 9:30:51 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, Mega Man 2k5 and Zelda 2k5 is expected to go into Mega Man's favor with 56.55%. Now if Mega Man did drop some (nothing insane, mind you) and then Zelda gets TP, that actually might not be a bad upset!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 9:31:21 PM | message detail
Zelda DID get 45% on Snake. She could probably manage that on Mega Man, but does she even threaten him? No way.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 9:32:33 PM | message detail
Actually, with the way Mega Man's been acting, I'd take Zelda over him.

I wouldn't think about taking her now -- unless she really boosted a lot this year, which I have no idea why she would -- because, uh, Mega Man would have to drop off a ton.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2006 9:34:32 PM | message detail
Speaking of Noble 9 upsets... WHEN THE HELL ARE YOU GOING TO DROP, CRONO.
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I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 9:35:04 PM | message detail
*Sonic
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xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 9:35:23 PM | message detail
People shouldn't expect Crono to drop, ever. You're just going to have to become flatout stronger than him to beat him.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:35:45 PM | message detail
This is Crono's last chance to drop for a couple of years, thanks to Virtual Console.
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The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 9:35:55 PM | message detail
People shouldn't expect Crono to drop, ever. You're just going to have to become flatout stronger than him to beat him.

This is truth!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:36:05 PM | message detail
MyWorldIsZelda
Posted 10/30/2006 12:24:10 AM
#292 The best thing to do is simply wait to see how Mega Man performs on Sora. If it's another rather pitiful performance then I would be more willing to say that Mega Man has dropped off a bit.


I maintain that we won't have a good idea on Mega Man's standing until he goes up against Crono (or God forbid, Sonic).

His first opponent was a newcomer that just came off a popular game. His second opponent was Ryu, who's all over the place when it comes to performances. His third round opponent is Sora coming hot off a critically acclaimed sequel, and his fourth round opponent is Snake on roids.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 9:36:56 PM | message detail
His second opponent was Ryu, who's all over the place when it comes to performances.

...Ryu is one of the most consistent characters we've ever had.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2006 9:37:14 PM | message detail
This is Crono's last chance to drop for a couple of years, thanks to Virtual Console.

That would be badassery personified, but has Square signed on to the Virtual Console?
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I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:37:57 PM | message detail
Until last year <_<

TuRtLe
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55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2006 9:38:41 PM | message detail
Ryu was known as "Mr. Consistency" for a while, I believe.
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I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 9:39:39 PM | message detail
and his fourth round opponent is Snake on roids.

Okay. Snake looks better this year, but him being much stronger is still yet to be determined.

But Mega Man putting up a pitiful performance against Sora is just way too many underperformances to swallow. Now, we won't know for certain until he faces Snake -- and if he loses there that will about spell out the situation to me -- but we'll have a nice idea beforehand.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
Who Cares? | Posted 10/29/2006 9:40:00 PM | message detail
One bad year =/= All over the place!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd)
*Go play Tales of the Abyss NOW!!*
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 9:42:03 PM | message detail
That would be badassery personified, but has Square signed on to the Virtual Console?

Indeed they have. In fact, here's the list of Virtual Console supporters...

Atlus
Namco Bandai
Banpresto
Capcom
Chunsoft
D4 Enterprise
Enterbrain
HAL Laboratory
Irem
Jaleco
KEMCO
Koei
Konami
NCS Masaya
Netfarm
Paon
Rocket Company
Square Enix
Sunsoft
Taito
Takara TOMY
Tecmo

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 9:42:18 PM | message detail
So he had a bad year in 2005. We've seen it happen to the best of 'em. The man scores 40% on the Noble Nine like clockwork. That's impressive. I'd be quicker to point the finger at Bowser than at him though.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 9:43:53 PM | message detail
actually, if anything this match is proving that he was consistent in both matches in 2005. Ryu is indeed very consistent.
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xyzzy
Draco1214 | Posted 10/29/2006 9:44:08 PM | message detail
Atlus
Namco Bandai
Banpresto
Capcom
Chunsoft
D4 Enterprise
Enterbrain
HAL Laboratory
Irem
Jaleco
KEMCO
Koei
Konami
NCS Masaya
Netfarm
Paon
Rocket Company
Square Enix
Sunsoft
Taito
Takara TOMY
Tecmo


Aw yeah, Gradius, Castlevania, and Shin Megami Tensei for the VC! <_<
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Currently Playing: Okami, King of Fighters 2002/2003, Gradius V
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/29/2006 9:44:13 PM | message detail
Holy crap, I had no idea so many companies have already pledged support. I figured it was still only Nintendo, Sega, and Hudson. o__O

Awesome news!
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I don't know when, I don't know how, but I know something starting right now...
Watch and you'll see, someday I'll be... part of your world!
HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2006 9:44:36 PM | message detail
Okay, mini-bracket time -- here's two divisions...the first one are the losers of the second round while the other is the winners of the second round (both are seeded by individual vote totals):

1-Dante
16-Terra
8-Bowser
9-Ryu
5-Lara Croft
12-Gordon Freeman
4-Vincent
13-Ada Wong
6-Kirby
11-Kairi
3-Jill Valentine
14-The Boss
7-Sub-Zero
10-KOS-MOS
2-Squall
15-Joanna Dark



1-Zelda
16-Luigi
8-Auron
9-Crono
5-Sora
12-Aeris
4-Tifa
13-Princess Peach
6-Solid Snake
11-Mega Man
3-Yuna
14-Chun-Li
7-Rikku
10-Sonic
2-Samus
15-Yoshi
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http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 9:45:24 PM | message detail
Well, the only problem is that 2005 Ryu isn't consistent with his other years.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 9:46:09 PM | message detail
Samus is getting back in gear here.. pretty impressive performance so far, I'd say. I still think she ends up below this when the match is done, but we'll see.
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 9:46:48 PM | message detail
Mega Man might even increase with his good games being put on the Virtual Console! Heh.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
Draco1214 | Posted 10/29/2006 9:46:51 PM | message detail
Lara/Gordon would be tough as hell to predict.
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Currently Playing: Okami, King of Fighters 2002/2003, Gradius V
Lady Ashe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:47:27 PM | message detail
Mega Man? Good games? Hah!
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:54:30 PM | message detail
Whoa, didn't know all those companies signed on with the VC. Maybe if we're lucky, we'll get Bahamut Lagoon! Europe's Chrono Trigger

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:55:16 PM | message detail
And KOEI being on-board = winsauce

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/29/2006 9:57:03 PM | message detail
Let me go run and make the new topic real quick...

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2006 10:31:56 PM | message detail
...we're not even at 350 yet though, and there's no big match today or tomorrow. Is there something wrong or new with the links now?

Anyway, Ryu last year looks to have been more than just one under-performance -- he probably had a real shot of losing to somebody he shouldn't lose to last year...like Dante, I suppose (hey, Ryu's beat him before anyway).


Speaking of which, Ryu > Dante was clear in 2k2, 2k3 (head to head), and 2k4, then it was clear Dante > Ryu last year...how do people feel about a Dante/Ryu match now?
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http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1)
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/29/2006 10:34:47 PM | message detail
...Ryu is one of the most consistent characters we've ever had.

Indeed. Ryu 2k5 is actually closer to Ryu 2k3 than Ryu 2k4 is though, so I don't really see anything wrong with Ryu 2k5's performance, especially with the possibility that Ryu was overrated in 2k3/2k4.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 10:34:50 PM | message detail
I'd have a hard time putting Ryu over Yoshi, so I guess I'd give the edge to Dante.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 10:36:53 PM | message detail
Indeed. Ryu 2k5 is actually closer to Ryu 2k3 than Ryu 2k4 is though, so I don't really see anything wrong with Ryu 2k5's performance, especially with the possibility that Ryu was overrated in 2k3/2k4.

So tell me what extrapolation you did to compensate for Bowser/Snake?

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/29/2006 10:38:53 PM | message detail
So tell me what extrapolation you did to compensate for Bowser/Snake?

Did you not see me specifically mention Ryu 2k3/2k4 being potentially overrated? Besides, there's always random variation to take characters down.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 11:03:39 PM | message detail
I'd probably take Dante in a rematch with Ryu.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 11:26:38 PM | message detail
hey look, the Nintendo hour is over and Rikku is gaining like mad. 63-64% updates? watch out, percentage!
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xyzzy