GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 411
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/29/2006 8:21:07 PM | message detail |
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Match XLIX: (1) Samus Aran vs. (3) Rikku Previous Matches Samus Aran Defeated Nidoran F, 81.85% - 18.15% Defeated Ada Wong, 79.78% - 20.22% Rikku Defeated Lenneth Valkyrie, 75.00% - 25.00% Defeated Kairi, 58.28% - 41.72% Analysis: Last round Samus showed that even if you could pull 75% victories it doesn’t mean that you are strong as she almost breaks 80% on Ada getting the blowout of the round. Rikku on the other hand did alright against Kairi since by then we knew that the Dream Division was overrated. Welcome to round 3 and with the exception of Zelda/Aeris this round is going to be a boring eight days. With that said over at the female half Samus is going to show us how much more stronger she is compare to the other females by destroying one of the females ranked in the top 10. Like it was said when the female bracket was announced Samus is the Sephiroth of the female bracket. Now I haven’t had much time to write a proper analysis on this match, but there really doesn’t need to be one. Rikku is overrated from the Dream Division and I can see Samus almost breaking 70% on her. Samus’ first challenge will be Tifa next round. charmander6000’s Bracket: Samus Aran over Rikku charmander6000’s Prediction: Samus wins, 69.14% - 30.86% --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 8:24:03 PM | message detail |
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Good thing a couple of people beat me to Turtle's choice of Squall as Loser of the Round. Saved me some time on ranting. And it's awesome to see that Sub-Zero will stay above 40% here. I didn't think he could manage quite THIS much. I was expecting more in the 37-38% range. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2006 8:26:10 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, I was expecting him to push 37% or maybe 38% too. --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 8:26:15 PM | message detail |
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...And I'm not sure what to base Auron on. Last round, I used Alucard
through Sora 2004, but that puts him at 36%+ here. 2005 value seems too
low. I suppose I'll just throw in a guestimation and work with it. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 8:26:34 PM | message detail |
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Meh, even if you don't think Squall was the biggest loser of the round, he did stink it up pretty bad. IMO, the only other person you could make a decent case for would be Aeris. TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 8:28:10 PM | message detail |
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Stupid Sub-Zero. --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 8:28:11 PM | message detail |
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And that's a moot point anyways, since I had seperate titles for male and female characters. TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 8:28:20 PM | message detail |
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Meh, even if you don't think Squall was the biggest loser of the round, he did stink it up pretty bad. ...Based on what? Nobody honestly expected him to win. Keep it close, sure, but nobody was expecting Bowser/Snake close. And considering there's very little doubt that Snake overperformed here, seeing Squall cut 8% off of an overperformance in 2002 isn't a bad thing at all. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 8:28:33 PM | message detail |
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I'd give him 34%.. seems like a nice number to me. --- xyzzy |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 8:30:13 PM | message detail |
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oh and to be fair Leon, you did kinda predict Squall to win in your crew writeup. --- xyzzy |
| Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/29/2006 8:30:38 PM | message detail |
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If Samus fails to at least double Rikku here, then Crono has the contest won. --- Can't think of a good sig. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 8:31:14 PM | message detail |
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Samus Aran – 41.69% Solid Snake – 41.45% Crono – 39.87% Mega Man – 38.79% Sonic the Hedgehog – 38.50% Vincent Valentine – 36.89% Squall Leonhart – 35.16% Ganondorf – 34.98% Luigi – 34.66% Yoshi – 34.54% Dante Sparda – 34.12% Bowser Koopa – 33.94% Princess Zelda – 33.71% Tifa Lockhart – 33.57% Auron – 33.50% Kirby – 33.05% Aeris Gainsborough – 32.81% Ryu – 32.55% Sora – 32.50% Zero – 32.09% Riku – 30.95% Leon Kennedy – 30.24% Kratos – 27.92% Sub-Zero – 27.03% Rikku – 26.55% Master Chief – 26.52% Yuna – 26.10% Prince of Persia – 25.32% KOS-MOS – 25.17% Chun-Li – 24.92% Alucard – 23.85% Princess Peach – 23.75% Jill Valentine – 23.74% Gordon Freeman – 23.40% Axel – 23.37% Kairi – 22.15% Lara Croft – 22.16% Claire Redfield – 21.23% Captain Falcon – 20.60% Marle – 19.83% Tidus – 19.68% Phoenix Wright – 19.56% Sheena Fujibayashi – 18.03% Amy Rose – 17.40% The Boss – 17.09% Ada Wong – 16.86% Ivy Valentine – 15.99% Tingle – 15.85% Kasumi – 15.58% Nidoran F – 15.13% CATS – 14.82% Soma Cruz – 14.80% Terra Branford – 13.85% Celes Chere – 13.30% Lenneth Valkyrie – 13.28% Joanna Dark – 11.46% Sarah Kerrigan – 11.45% Roll – 10.81% Alyx Vance – 9.94% Carmen Sandiego – 9.38% Cortana – 9.11% Jade – 8.13% Princess Daisy – 8.03% --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/29/2006 8:31:26 PM | message detail |
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From Blade Of Evils Bane If Samus fails to at least double Rikku here, then Crono has the contest won. *Zelda ~~~ The one. The only. Lady Ashe. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 8:32:27 PM | message detail |
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oh and to be fair Leon, you did kinda predict Squall to win in your crew writeup. Because I had nothing to lose by doing it. I acknowledged throughout the write-up that Snake overperforming was very real, and I was among the first to suggest that was what happened in 2002. I believed Snake COULD overperform. The only issue was whether or not he would. I was just hoping he wouldn't. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 8:32:53 PM | message detail |
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a biased writeup? Heroic Leonhart !! --- xyzzy |
| ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/29/2006 8:33:26 PM | message detail |
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Please god say that was a joke, Ashe. --- New York Mets: 97-65: At least we had a better run than the Yankees! # 1 Fan of the best video game character, Squall Leonhart <3 |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 8:33:44 PM | message detail |
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If I was actually still on the Crew and not doing a Guest write-up, I probably would've predicted Snake, with around 52-53%. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2006 8:34:13 PM | message detail |
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I'm pretty sure FFXIII-2 would make Leonhart erupt like HM does for Ganon-news. --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 8:34:36 PM | message detail |
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Wow, Mega Man still over Sonic? Wonder what x-stats sorcery that is. TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| Lady Ashe | Posted 10/29/2006 8:35:47 PM | message detail |
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Well, considering how Zelda is going to double Samus, I find it really hard to believe that Crono could beat her. ~~~ The one. The only. Lady Ashe. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 8:37:47 PM | message detail |
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Wonder what x-stats sorcery that is. The SC2K5 stats. In almost every case, unless I have nothing to work with, I'll keep one character constant and work from there. In Auron's case, I just boosted him a little bit because Alucard below Jill and Peach was just...ick. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 8:48:10 PM | message detail |
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Uhhh...Auron with 45.11% of the brackets. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 8:49:01 PM | message detail |
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Auron with...... (damn you master chief) 41% of the brackets. --- xyzzy |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 8:49:48 PM | message detail |
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I wonder if we'll get some leaderboard destruction today. --- xyzzy |
| Janus5000 | Posted 10/29/2006 8:51:25 PM | message detail |
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Auron with 37% of the brackets. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4 |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 8:56:43 PM | message detail |
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You know, I just realized...Assuming constant Master Chief, this puts Auron really close to Crono! DUN DUN DUN! --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 8:58:35 PM | message detail |
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I can't see the leaderboard getting hit too badly. Most of it seems to be people that have followed the contests. Though I can see Auron getting under 40% Auron with 36.53% TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2006 9:00:18 PM | message detail |
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Samus Aran 85.19% 23 Rikku 14.81% 4 TOTAL VOTES 27 Holy crap... --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64) |
| Gaddswell | Posted 10/29/2006 9:00:57 PM | message detail |
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Samus Aran 72.13% 88 Rikku 27.87% 34 TOTAL VOTES 122 --- By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2006 9:01:09 PM | message detail |
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35.87% for Auron, woo Chief! --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64) |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 9:01:52 PM | message detail |
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Nintendo early vote? bracket vote? Rikku antivotes? even with all that, Samus barely doubling Rikku! --- xyzzy |
| MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/29/2006 9:02:01 PM | message detail |
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Yawn. Next match plz. --- Hispanics 1 | Whites 5 Asians 4 | Blacks 3 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:02:35 PM | message detail |
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Damn, Rikku impressing with the board vote. How's smaus' board vote? TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2006 9:02:47 PM | message detail |
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Oh thank you, Rikku was doing too well for a minute there, but Samus is goin up now. --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64) |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 9:03:13 PM | message detail |
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She's above her projection in the stats at least! --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 9:03:17 PM | message detail |
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All things considered, this is decent for Rikku. After all, Samus is
expected to get 68.16% here, assuming both to be constant from 2005. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 10/29/2006 9:03:23 PM | message detail |
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All Time Most Popular Polls 01. 158527 - (1) The Legend of Zelda vs (1) Final Fantasy (2006 Series Final) 02. 157773 - (1) Final Fantasy vs (1) Super Mario Bros. (2006 Series Semfinal) 03. 147637 - (1) Cloud Strife vs (1) Link (2003 Characters Semifinal) 04. 137513 - (1) Metal Gear vs (2) Kingdom Hearts (2006 Series Quarterfinal) 05. 136154 - (1) Final Fantasy vs (2) Resident Evil (2006 Series Quarterfinal) 06. 135833 - (1) Solid Snake vs (4) Squall Leonhart (2006 Characters Round 2) 07. 135562 - (1) Final Fantasy vs (4) Mega Man (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen) 08. 134604 - (1) The Legend of Zelda vs (2) Metroid (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen) 09. 134434 - (3) Auron vs (7) Sub-Zero (2006 Characters Round 2) 10. 133005 - (1) Mario vs (4) Crono (2003 Characters Sweet Sixteen) 11. 132410 - (1) The Legend of Zelda vs (1) Metal Gear (2006 Series Semifinal) 12. 130058 - (2) Luigi vs (7) Zero (2006 Characters Round 1) 13. 129977 - (1) The Legend of Zelda vs (5) Mega Man X (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen) 14. 129703 - (1) Mario vs (2) Cloud Strife (2002 Characters Quarterfinal) 15. 129569 - (6) Yoshi vs (2) Dante (2006 Characters Round 2) 16. 129463 - (3) Rikku vs (2) Kairi (2006 Characters Round 2) 17. 128290 - (7) Sub-Zero vs (2) Master Chief (2006 Characters Round 1) 18. 128286 - (2) Kingdom Hearts vs (3) Castlevania (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen) 19. 128006 - (5) Vincent Valentine vs (4) Ganondorf (2006 Characters Round 1) 20. 127218 - (5) WarCraft vs (4) Grand Theft Auto (2006 Series Round 1) 21. 126178 - (2) Super Smash Bros. vs (3) Sonic the Hedgehog (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen) 22. 126164 - (2) Tifa Lockhart vs (7) Ivy Valentine (2006 Characters Round 1) 23. 125719 - (6) Yoshi vs (3) Riku (2006 Characters Round 1) 24. 125259 - (2) Metroid vs (3) Pokemon (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen) 25. 125208 - (1) Final Fantasy vs (8) Diablo (2006 Series Round 1) 2002 Characters - 1 2003 Characters - 2 2004 Games - 0 2004 Characters - 0 2005 Villains - 0 2005 Characters - 0 2006 Series - 13 2006 Characters - 9 Subby's quite the vote draw, it would seem. This match would have made it pretty easily even if it stopped after 24 hours. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf |
| janembaman | Posted 10/29/2006 9:03:26 PM | message detail |
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Yawn. Next match plz. Next match is another boring one... --- laff |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 9:04:00 PM | message detail |
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wow, spoke too soon -- Samus really climbing here. --- xyzzy |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 9:04:26 PM | message detail |
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Eh, I'm looking more forward to Tifa owning Peach than I am this one. Perhaps that's because I'm a big Tifa fan, and I prefer Rikku to Samus here, but either way. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/29/2006 9:05:30 PM | message detail |
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The highlight of this round is Zelda rocking Aeris! --- "Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire." |
| Gaddswell | Posted 10/29/2006 9:05:37 PM | message detail |
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At the freeze: Samus Aran 69.67% 928 Rikku 30.33% 404 TOTAL VOTES 1332 --- By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2006 9:05:38 PM | message detail |
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Yeah...I'm thinking Samus will finish over 70%. --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64) |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 9:06:06 PM | message detail |
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69.67% for Samus at the freeze. Nothing out of the ordinary so far. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
| Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/29/2006 9:06:12 PM | message detail |
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Rikku = Frog? --- Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 9:06:35 PM | message detail |
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I'm not - 68% seems like a good estimate to me, though we really have
no idea where this poll is going to go from here. I just don't trust
Nintendo characters to keep their percentage up once the early vote
drops off. --- xyzzy |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 9:07:34 PM | message detail |
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though Samus's opening percentage is what she ended with.. I dunno, we'll see what Rikku can do. here's some round 2 stats: Samus - 50.00 Ada Wong - 20.22 Nidoran F - 18.15 Jade - 9.75 Rikku - 50.00 Kairi - 41.72 Claire Redfield - 39.98 Lenneth - 25.00 Tifa - 50.00 The Boss - 25.45 Ivy - 23.82 Celes - 19.81 Peach - 50.00 Jill Valentine - 49.99 Sheena - 37.96 Daisy - 16.90 Zelda - 50.00 Terra - 20.55 Sarah Kerrigan - 16.98 Carmen Sandiego - 13.92 Yuna - 50.00 Joanna Dark - 21.95 Roll - 20.70 Cortana - 17.46 Aeris - 50.00 KOS-MOS - 38.35 Marle - 30.22 Amy Rose - 26.52 Chun Li - 50.00 Lara Croft - 44.46 Kasumi - 31.26 Alyx Vance - 19.96 Solid Snake - 50.00 Squall - 42.41 Tidus - 23.73 Soma Cruz - 17.85 Yoshi - 50.00 Dante - 49.45 Riku - 44.80 Ryu Hayabusa - 34.41 Sora - 50.00 Gordon Freeman - 36.07 Phoenix Wright - 30.15 Tingle - 24.39 Mega Man - 50.00 Ryu - 41.96 Kratos - 35.99 Axel - 30.13 Sonic - 50.00 Vincent Valentine - 47.91 Ganondorf - 45.43 CATS - 19.25 Luigi - 50.00 Kirby - 47.69 Zero - 46.29 Prince of Persia - 36.53 Crono - 50.00 Bowser - 42.56 Leon Kennedy - 37.92 Captain Falcon - 25.84 Auron - 50.00 Sub-Zero - 40.37 Master Chief - 39.60 Alucard - 35.60 --- xyzzy |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 9:07:54 PM | message detail |
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err.. against Ada, that is. --- xyzzy |
| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 10/29/2006 9:08:53 PM | message detail |
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Score-Brackets-% Right 61-----3--------100.0000000 60-----34-------94.1176471 59-----49-------81.6326531 58-----143------82.5174825 57-----316------69.6202532 56-----504------69.6428571 55-----758------63.9841689 54-----1092-----57.0512821 53-----1420-----51.4084507 52-----1685-----47.4777448 51-----1953-----40.7066052 50-----2049-----42.1181064 49-----2105-----40.1425178 48-----2182-----35.9761687 47-----2041-----35.7667810 46-----2071-----33.8966683 45-----2068-----33.5106383 44-----2015-----31.7121588 43-----1901-----33.2982641 42-----1821-----31.9055464 41-----1866-----31.1897106 40-----1714-----31.9136523 39-----1675-----30.5671642 38-----1561-----29.5323511 37-----1454-----28.8170564 36-----1309-----30.1757066 35-----1139-----28.1826163 34-----1032-----29.2635659 33-----872------26.9495413 32-----766------26.3707572 31-----671------27.7198212 30-----531------22.4105461 29-----382------26.7015707 28-----324------21.2962963 27-----263------18.6311787 26-----177------15.8192090 25-----133------24.0601504 24-----90-------18.8888889 23-----54-------16.6666667 22-----45-------35.5555556 21-----29-------6.8965517 20-----17-------11.7647059 19-----17-------11.7647059 18-----11-------9.0909091 17-----10-------20.0000000 16-----5--------20.0000000 15-----4--------25.0000000 14-----3--------0.0000000 13-----8--------25.0000000 12-----4--------25.0000000 11-----8--------0.0000000 10-----5--------40.0000000 9------11-------9.0909091 8------27-------3.7037037 7------37-------8.1081081 6------45-------0.0000000 5------56-------1.7857143 4------36-------5.5555556 3------24-------4.1666667 Everybody with a score of 2 or less got the match wrong. Overall prediction percentage: 35.87% The -1s go perfect and the -2s are in the mid 90s. There's a large drop at the -3s to just over 80. At -5 we're not even over 70 anymore. Overall people did pretty poorly on this match. Guess that's what happens when Master Chief is in the four pack and doesn't win. 5 people fell off the Top 50 today. SatyricalMarduk, gthorn2000, Ninjo222, Mushroomfantasy and KarmaPolice41 did not have Auron winning the match today. --- I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest. Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest! |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 9:09:34 PM | message detail |
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Samus/Nidoran F was basically a continual climb in percentage for
Samus, but considering the context of that match, I wouldn't take that
into account when determining trends. She actually dropped quite a bit
during the night against Ada Wong before doing some serious ownage with
the day vote. The last quarter of the match was just one long stall. Rikku also did noticeably better during the day than at night against Lenneth. She had a small drop during the immediate aftermath of the after school vote though. Her match with Kairi didn't have much of a shift. Kairi gained with the day vote, no surprise, but it wasn't very much. Barely more than a percent. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck |
