GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 411
| MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/29/2006 6:36:02 PM | message detail |
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Not one bracket had him winning that match Mine did due to the whole Bowser = Snake overperformance and Squall already being close to Bowser but having KH2. --- Hispanics 1 | Whites 5 Asians 4 | Blacks 3 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 6:36:03 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and Aeris was pretty freaking awful too, for the same reasons as MM. Though to be fair we hadn't seen her since 2003. Heck, even Bowser looked worse, despite his underperforming being generally tame. He had just about as much a shot at Crono as Squall had at Snake, and at least Snake/Squall is almost certainly SFF. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 6:36:55 PM | message detail |
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I was always under the impression that Ryu/Bowser was fishy by itself. Factor in Mega Man's seeming stigma against badass Capcom characters and the result isn't too surprising. I figure MM's underperformances and Snake's overperformances is just a build up to alot of people getting burned when they hop on the Snake > MM bandwagon. At any rate, these things are all subjective anyways and it's more or less based on personal expectations. TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 6:38:44 PM | message detail |
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Mega Man (2005c) VS Ryu (2004c) Mega Man has a strength of 38.79. Ryu has a strength of 32.00. Mega Man wins with 58.75% of the vote! A win of 15,577 with 88,988 total votes cast. we've seen characters have bad years before - while MM sure didn't look good, I wouldn't say his performance was "terrible" or that he "bombed" quite yet. give him a chance to impress against Sora first. --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 6:39:30 PM | message detail |
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I was always under the impression that Ryu/Bowser was fishy by itself. A character that lets Rikku get 45% on them deserves to get flattened like that. Unless Rikku evades the doubling tomorrow, I ain't buying it. Factor in Mega Man's seeming stigma against badass Capcom characters ... and the result isn't too surprising. I figure MM's underperformances and Snake's overperformances is just a build up to alot of people getting burned when they hop on the Snake > MM bandwagon. Match results and character strength don't conform to your ridiculous superstition, much as you make like them to. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 6:39:53 PM | message detail |
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and remember, most of the characters we perceive to have "bombed" are
because the guys they went against were night vote champs. Snake was up
at around 62% on Squall but he brought that down. same with Crono. MM
looked so horrid because Ryu was ripping percentage off him and winning
15 minute updates like it was nothing during the nighttime, but he fell
as usual during the daytime. --- xyzzy |
| Mikey Lenetia | Posted 10/29/2006 6:40:29 PM | message detail |
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Well, at least reading these things have helped me with one thing. I
think I'm learning the more in-depth statistics about the characters.
^_^; --- Aerith: Who would you go for? Marth, Roy, or Link? If you had to choose. Peach: Link. I'd sooner slap the other two around. Literally. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 6:41:47 PM | message detail |
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It's not just Ryu that's the problem, it's Kratos. And the Dream
Division. Ryu may have recovered this year, but that involves a Kratos
I'm not quite willing to accept. I'd be willing to accept Mega Man being constant and underperforming thanks to the picture or something like that before accepting Ryu as being more beastly than ever... --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 6:44:13 PM | message detail |
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And if Kratos benefitted so much from his game getting healthy sales in
the off-season...then pray tell, what in heaven's name happened to
Dante against Yoshi? --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 6:45:47 PM | message detail |
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Nintendo happened! frankly, I don't know - it's not like Dante bombed
though. Dante is a far more known quantity than Kratos is. we expected
Dante to get 52-53% and he got 49.5. that's not really much of an
underperformance. --- xyzzy |
| MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/29/2006 6:47:21 PM | message detail |
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Right now, I wouldn't even worry about the stats. There's way too many
anomalies right now to accurately judge them until the main bracket's
through. At this rate, Snake/Mega Man and the final match are the only interesting matches left, though that may change if Snake actually wins by a decisive enough percentage to appear threatening to Crono. The xstats are a giant mess this year, and it's fantastic. --- Hispanics 1 | Whites 5 Asians 4 | Blacks 3 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2006 6:48:25 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, with Snake/Sora actually looking semi-legit (I mean, Alucard
looks around his 2005 value I think, but it's weird for Sora to take a
dip between 2004 and 2005, but it gives KH2 a bigger impact for him.),
it's hard to see Kratos jumping up that high only because GoW has been
out longer. Ryu's match with Rikku also says something, but I'm not
ready to accept Mega Man has dropped, especially to that level, yet. --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Auron vs. Sub-Zero- Bracket: Auron - Vote: Auron (54/62) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 6:49:40 PM | message detail |
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I think Dante/Yoshi was more Yoshi showing his true colours than Dante bombing or anything. I'd say Yoshi/Snake will tell us for sure, but I wouldn't put any trust in Solid **** stats TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 6:49:49 PM | message detail |
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a giant mess? they make as much sense as they ever have. I think people
examine them so closely for a year+ that they expect them to be
perfect. this is a ton
better than what happened last year thanks to the mess of 2004. the
whole last week is going to be interesting no matter what conclusions
people are drawing at this point. --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 6:51:20 PM | message detail |
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Nintendo happened! frankly, I don't know - it's not like Dante
bombed though. Dante is a far more known quantity than Kratos is. we
expected Dante to get 52-53% and he got 49.5. that's not really much of
an underperformance. It's not so much that Dante 'underperformed' as it is that he had every reason to overperform there. Anything comparable to the kind of boost that Kratos had almost demands it. To put it another way, if Mega Man stayed constant Kratos is at *checks* nearly 28 on BL, ahead of Leon 2k5 if I did everything right. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 6:51:44 PM | message detail |
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Alucard's looking to be at about 24% assuming a constant Auron -
something that doesn't make much sense to me at all. I'd put Alucard at
about 25-26%, Sub at 27-28 and Auron at 33-34. that's wayyyyy above
Alucard's 2k5 value. --- xyzzy |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 6:55:09 PM | message detail |
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To put it another way, if Mega Man stayed constant Kratos is at
*checks* nearly 28 on BL, ahead of Leon 2k5 if I did everything right. I'm willing to accept a MM decline, it's just that I don't think it's as catastrophic as some people make it sound. (not you, for the record.) MM's not going to be losing to Bowser, even indirectly. Kratos at 28 is a bit extreme, but 26 seems reasonable to me. that's really not as bad as people make it out to be. personally, I find Leon at 31-32 to be just as troublesome as Kratos at 28. --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 6:59:25 PM | message detail |
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Leon isn't at 31-32% based on the Crono match, I think it's more like
30% -- and whatever reason Kratos had to boost, Leon had more.
Meanwhile, assuming Alucard was at an optimistic 27 on BL in 2k5,
Kratos is at 24 on BL. That's a 4 point jump to this year assuming a
constant MM. Of course MM hasn't fallen that far, but just going by pure statistics he had one of the biggest disappointments of the round. And if we're going to use something other than statistics, we might as well leave a whole bunch of people out of it -- no one expected Squall to win that match. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2006 7:00:04 PM | message detail |
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Hmm, I forgot he was THAT low (21%) in 2005 (I must have been looking at the BL column). So yeah, Snake probably did overperform there. I think Auron has boosted since then. Even if you throw in a couple of percent to Sora's fourpack because of a Snake overperformance, Kratos's boost is a bit crazy for the aforementioned reasons. You know, I think it is best to just wait until MM/Sora, because it should answer some questions on this and also on how much KH2 has helped Sora. --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Auron vs. Sub-Zero- Bracket: Auron - Vote: Auron (54/62) |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 7:03:05 PM | message detail |
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was MM more disappointing than Squall? yeah, of course. was he more disappointing than Aeris? hell no. *does Leon calculations* 30.23%, good call. I'm willing to accept that, but I'm also willing to accept Kratos at 28% if that's where he ends up. RE4 beat GOW soundly in the GOTY poll, but the #1 PS2 game of the year is nothing to laugh at. even if it was a down year. --- xyzzy |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/29/2006 7:07:55 PM | message detail |
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I would think Kratos would benefit more from increased sales of his first
game than Dante benefiting from his third.... Kratos being a brand new
character and all. Kratos 2k5 may have been incomplete in strength due
to his game still circulating. --- Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 7:08:17 PM | message detail |
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Well, yeah, Aeris definitely disappointed me last round, definitely
more than MM going by just statistics (dagger to the heart, right
there!), but like I've said unlike Mega Man we haven't seen her in
years. A whole lot could have happened to her. Mega Man has been one of
the pillars of consistency, and to see him falter there was...more shocking, I suppose. Kratos at 28% on BL would befuddle me, especially since he really has no reason to just shoot up like that. It would sort of explain that insane bracket support (more brackets over Ryu than Alucard? huh?), but you're talking about taking him over a LOT of people that I would have a hard time seeing him competiting with -- not that I wouldn't enjoy it, I love Kratos. And if that 28 is legit, what happens after GoW 2? Kratos won't only be one of the strongest new blood out there, he'll be an absolute monster. Kratos a near-elite...? --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| creativename | Posted 10/29/2006 7:08:23 PM | message detail |
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We don't really know what's up with Mega Man yet. The most obvious
explanation is that Ryu simply sucked last year, and has rebounded this
year. I think most of us can agree though that even if Snake beats Mega
Man, it won't be by very much. Mega Man is obviously not as weak as Ryu
last year makes him look. I think Snake might be the favorite against Mega Man now in terms of board expectations, but I can definitely see him disappointing against Mega Man. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 7:09:59 PM | message detail |
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yeah, exactly - Dante has less room to boost and it's not his first
game. the more games you have, the harder it is for you to boost. I
never took DMC3 director's cut or whatever it is into consideration
when taking Dante to beat Yoshi. I didn't think it'd have much of an
effect at all since the people that would get it would most likely
already be DMC fans. GOW, on the other hand? I really don't have a problem with Kratos beating Alucard this year. --- xyzzy |
| MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/29/2006 7:11:09 PM | message detail |
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God of War has exploded since last year though. Ever since it turned
Greatest Hits it's sold amazing and has broken 1 million. I can see
Kratos boosting big this year. --- Demyx > Axel Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills! |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2006 7:13:08 PM | message detail |
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Oh, Snake is going to do his best yet against Mega Man, I foresee that.
Whether it be losing in a very close one or outright winning. And I'm not doubting Kratos boosted, but to 28% seems pretty high. Looking at Leon, it could be around there though. How much had RE4 sold before his match against Mega Man? --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Auron vs. Sub-Zero- Bracket: Auron - Vote: Auron (54/62) |
| creativename | Posted 10/29/2006 7:13:20 PM | message detail |
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And let's not forget that Mega Man did outdo Snake's 2K3 performance on
Ryu. That should be a weaker Snake, but still. Also, Ryu got 44% on
Sonic in 2K4. Again, most likely a weaker Sonic, but it's not like it
would be shocking to see Ryu do so well. The surprising thing is the rebound; I think usually characters tend not to change directions like that, but it's still wouldn't be that surprising. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/29/2006 7:13:24 PM | message detail |
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And seriously, if Dante can bust on the scene in 2k2 and be an instant
midcarder, I see no reason why Kratos can't do the same... --- Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 7:13:37 PM | message detail |
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If Kratos doesn't beat Alucard this year,
Auron > Mega Man. Yeah, the Kratos boost is obvious, it's just the
apparent extent that seems so weird. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| creativename | Posted 10/29/2006 7:16:30 PM | message detail |
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And seriously, if Dante can bust on the scene in 2k2 and be an
instant midcarder, I see no reason why Kratos can't do the same... Good point. DMC did come out on 10/16/2001, according to gamerankings. And Dante did pretty well less than a year later. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 7:16:31 PM | message detail |
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call me nuts if you want, but doubling sales of your original game is
worth just as much, if not more, than a new release. sequels are never
going to be as impactful on strength as the original. a hefty boost is
very, very possible. ..though if you wanted to dig for reasons, you can say there's some action game SFF in Kratos/Alucard or something. not that I buy it, but I suppose it's possible. --- xyzzy |
| outback | Posted 10/29/2006 7:16:54 PM | message detail |
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Based on the last page, I'd have to call KH the new HM. --- I did well in SpC2k6, but not well enough to beat Z1mZum! øütßá©k *Truly Gone Fishing* |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 7:16:56 PM | message detail |
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And let's not forget that Mega Man did outdo Snake's 2K3 performance on Ryu. That should be a weaker Snake, but still. Not just a weaker Snake, sprite Snake. For as obvious as the 'overperformances' of Frog and Bowser have been touted against Solid **** (and the calls for a Yoshi overperformance next round as well), you'd think people would be calling for Ryu to overestimated there as well. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| creativename | Posted 10/29/2006 7:18:48 PM | message detail |
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I didn't realize about the sprite thing. But the Sonic thing still
holds. And I found the picture, and Snake did have a background
picture, like this year. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 7:19:12 PM | message detail |
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You guys are acting like I'm relying on a Mega Man drop here. =P Rely
on a character's strength, not an opponent's weakness. I still consider
MM the favorite against Snake, but Ryu, Kratos, and Axel all beg questions from Mega Man that are *very* similar. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| creativename | Posted 10/29/2006 7:20:42 PM | message detail |
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Rely on a character's strength, not an opponent's weakness. Rely on both. This sounds like a bad sports cliche ;) --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 7:21:51 PM | message detail |
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nah, MM isn't likely to drop below Snake's 2k5 level. Snake is going to
have to win that match, MM's not going to outright lose it. you'd have
to use some Smurf logic to think otherwise. --- xyzzy |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 7:23:25 PM | message detail |
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From transience call me nuts if you want, but doubling sales of your original game is worth just as much, if not more, than a new release. sequels are never going to be as impactful on strength as the original. a hefty boost is very, very possible. ..though if you wanted to dig for reasons, you can say there's some action game SFF in Kratos/Alucard or something. not that I buy it, but I suppose it's possible. I know what you mean here. With more sales on an original game, every sale is a person getting exposed to the character. With a sequel, alot of the sales are people who have played the original, and more likely to have voted the character anyways. TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| creativename | Posted 10/29/2006 7:30:00 PM | message detail |
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Snake is going to have to win that match, MM's not going to outright lose it. This is asymmetric logic. It doesn't hold up. One wins, one loses. Mega Man could drop below Snake 2K5, though that seems highly unlikely. But these aren't real people. Drop, gain, doesn't matter so long as the character wins. We've seen plenty of characters drop (Tidus being the biggest example), where the drop alone would be enough to lose plenty of matches. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| transience | Posted 10/29/2006 7:35:28 PM | message detail |
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Tidus is goofy.. I don't know what happened with him. I'm willing to
call 2k3 a fluke and just assume his performance on MM was legit
(though he's slightly underrated thanks to MM being underrated) when did this poll start, 23:30 ago? are we sure the new poll starts at midnight? --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 7:41:58 PM | message detail |
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Tell me, what seems more likely -- Snake gaining enough from his new
releases and MGS4/SSBB hype to take on Mega Man, or MM randomly
dropping off enough for Snake to be able to beat him? Both are possible, but you'd be bonkers if you think I was betting on the latter when I filled out my bracket.. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2006 7:44:32 PM | message detail |
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Spazer Division: Round 3 - Match 49 – (1)Samus vs. (3)Rikku Moltar’s Analysis Samus Round 1 – 81.85% vs. Nidoran F (18.15%) Round 2 – 79.78% vs. Ada (20.22%) Ouch, Samus makes Ada look almost as bad as Nidoran F. Rikku Round 1 – 75.00% vs. Lenneth (25.00%) Round 2 – 58.28% vs. Kairi (41.72%) Well…Kairi did a lot better than I expected…Hmmph. Samus’s third opponent on her “Path to Victory” in the female bracket is her toughest yet… What? I’m not lying! Sure, Rikku is nowhere near Samus’s league. I mean, she did get 45% on Ryu, but this was obviously the weaker Ryu that appeared in 2005. Hmm…let’s see how this match would have gone in 2005, and work from there. *5 hours later* Alright, after slaving over those x-stats, I’ve finally come to the conclusion that Samus would win with 68.16%! Now, what have they had since then…Rikku had a small role in KH2, but Samus has her amazing female bracket winner support. Then again, I wouldn’t put Rikku below Frog, so this could be another match where the result is pretty close to the X-Stats prediction. Oh, and let me make one more quick calculation… *5 more hours later* Ooh, seems like Kairi would end up nearly getting tripled by Samus. Now THAT’S something I want to see! …wait, there’s a calculator that does all these calculations for you? Curse you, technology! Moltar’s Bracket Says: Samus will win. Moltar’s Prediction is: Samus: 69% - Rikku: 31% Ulti’s Analysis I really see no reason for this match not to follow last year's stats. BOOOOOOOOOO to the return of the female bracket. Prediction: Samus with 68.16% HM’s Analysis Samus Aran Previous Matches: Samus Aran – 81.85% -- 95,533 Nidoran F – 18.15% -- 21,180 Samus Aran – 79.78% -- 98,352 Ada Wong – 20.22% -- 24,923 Rikku Previous Matches: Rikku – 75% -- 83,124 Lenneth Valkyrie – 25% -- 27,704 Rikku – 58.28% -- 75,494 Kairi – 41.72% -- 54,043 Samus came out very strong last round by demolishing Ada Wong. Most of us had expected that the match wouldn’t be close, but Samus beating Ada nearly as bad as Nidoran F surely reassured a lot of people who chose Samus to win it all. Rikku put up a rather disappointing performance against Kairi by not even managing to break 60%. Of course, it’s tough to say just how weak of a performance it looked given that Kairi was untested. This match should tell us something about other matches…but I’m not entirely sure what. Samus is expected to get about 68% in this match and if she somehow manages to fail to meet that – or worse, a doubling – the upset alarms may be sounding for her match against Zelda (WOO), but I’m not banking on it. But, after the disappointing showing from the Dream Division so far, or at least in everyone’s case except Mega Man, this match help to continue shedding more light on what happened there. Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Samus Aran Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Samus Aran – 70.5% ; Rikku – 29.5% Aitch Emm’s Vote: Samus Aran Yoblazer’s Analysis I watched Samus hit 80% on Ada Wong. Then I watched Rikku barely hit 58% against Kairi. Now I'm wondering how in the heck Rikku is going to avoid coming out of this in an ambulance. The sad truth (for her and her fans) is this: she won't. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2006 7:44:55 PM | message detail |
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Statistically, Rikku would need to beat Ada Wong with 66.2% of the vote to even hit 30%
against Samus. Doesn't seem like such an attainable goal to me,
especially when you take her very poor performance against Kairi into
account. Historically, Samus has been very unlucky as of late. Her last
three matches prior to the 80% clinic on Ada were against a big name Nintendo villain, a Nintendo icon, and a Nintendo
joke entry. We all know Samus does her worst when up against other
Nintendo characters, and I believe many of us have been unfairly
underestimating her because of these recent matches without considering
who she was against and why she didn't perform up to snuff. Well, Rikku
sure isn't Nintendo, and it's about time Samus once again reminded all
of us just who the hell she was. I completely expect Samus to finish around the 70% mark in this match. In fact, if Rikku performs well enough to escape the doubling, I'll burn my copy of The Little Mermaid. My prediction: Samus Aran def. Rikku (71-29) Lopen’s Analysis Well, when the contest came out, I thought Samus lost a step. Nidoran F? Not 90%? Nonsense! But then in round 2, she clobbers Ada Wong and makes me think she hasn't lost a step at all. So hey, what does that mean? That means Rikku doesn't have a chance, that means Samus is gonna have it nice and easy? How easy? Rikku: Hey, Samie, let's dance! Samus: … Rikku: C'mon, pleeeeaaassseee? *puppy dog look* *Samus blows Rikku's head off with a Super Missile* Cold hearted bounty hunting at its finest. Oh, don't worry. Tidus will cast Life 2 on Rikku! We don't do casualties in this contest, that would be uncivilized! Lopen's prediction: Samus with 66.65% KH’s Analysis lol x-stats history Samus Aran Summer 2002 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 4th Place [41.07%] Summer 2003 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 7th Place [36.72%] Summer 2004 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 4th Place [39.50%] Summer 2005 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 5th Place [38.21%] Back to the female half. You can tell how excited I am for this, seeing as how the thing that makes me happiest is no particular match, but that the sprite round isn't going to be in Round 4 this year. Oh, um, Samus wins. Rikku Summer 2005 Contest Extrapolated Strength --- 30th Place [24.33%] Rikku struggles against Kairi. Not exactly good when your next round opponent is...Samus? Oh, dear... Notable Releases Since Last Appearance Samus Aran: Metroid Prime: Hunters (DS), Metroid Prime Pinball (DS), Super Smash Brothers Brawl Trailer (lol internet) Rikku: Kingdom Hearts II (PS2) Upcoming Releases Samus Aran: Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (WII), Super Smash Brothers Brawl (WII) Rikku: N/A Another match where the percentage is all that matters. In any case, Samus has looked incredibly dominating and the Dream Division has faltered at almost every chance it's had. The only saving grace for Rikku is that she was behind Ryu, who impressed like crazy against Mega Man. But I'm starting to think that was Mega Man's fault, hence, Rikku gets destroyed. Betcha didn't see that one coming! Karma Hunter's Vote: Rikku. blah blah personality > Samus blah blah Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Samus Aran with 71.46% . Frog > Rikku? Yeah, ouch. Upset Potential: 0% Rikku isn't affiliated with Nintendo in the slightest! She has no chance here! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 7:45:04 PM | message detail |
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Ngamer's site seems to be down TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2006 7:45:43 PM | message detail |
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Guest’s Analysis - ShatteredElysium Samus Aran Previous Matches 1st Round: (8) Nidoran F - 81.85% (95533) 2nd Round: (4) Ada Wong - 79.78% (98352) Rikku Previous Matches 1st Round: (6) Lenneth Valkyrie - 75% (83124) 2nd Round: (2) Kairi – 58.28% (75494) Similar Past Opponents Ryu (Street Fighter) Samus 2002 - 57.85% (39293) Rikku 2005 – 44.28% (47054) Lol X-Stats Samus 68.16% (65,749) Rikku 31.82% (30,717) So in the first match of round three, we have statistically the strongest female character to ever grace these contests squaring off against one of the many Final Fantasy characters that gain entry into this contest. I don’t think that Rikku was given a fair chance to prove herself in the contest last year, coming up against Ryu in round one. I personally felt that she was one of a few Final Fantasy characters that had the potential to upset a few brackets. This year she has proven to be a mid-carder with wins over Lenneth and Kairi. Whilst neither are exactly monsters, she has struggled with neither. This is her first real test and it couldn’t get much sterner than this. We have to look at facts here. Rikku has beaten two contest debutants whilst Samus is a noble nine members and as such has never lost to a character outside of the noble nine. In fact, only three character outside the noble nine have managed to break 40% on Samus and they are Ryu (2002), Squall (2003) and Ganondorf (2005). There is no question over who is going to win this match because Samus is clearly going to run away with it. The question is by how much. The only opponent they have shared is Ryu but I really don’t like using 2002 statistics. X-stats say that Samus is going to win with 68.16% if both characters have remained constant. I personally think they’ve both received small boosts but neither has come up against opposition where it could be accurately measured. Ganondorf only just managed to scrape in with a post 40% score last year and Rikku is nowhere near Ganon’s strength so she isn’t getting near that 40 barrier. I think 68% is slightly too high though and we’re looking more around the 65% mark. I’m going for a victory that would be Samus’s most resounding third round victory but not by much. Samus 66.2% Rikku 33.8% Crew Consensus: Samus wins easily, but the range can be debated. Looks to be anywhere froma doubling to over 70%. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 7:48:15 PM | message detail |
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Sorry about that Moltar. BTW, when do you want my Zelda/Aeris writeup? TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 7:58:27 PM | message detail |
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Round 3 Spazer Division Finals Samus Aran (1) vs Rikku (3) http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2531 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2532 Last round, Samus regained her footing after failing to impress on Nidoran F while Rikku seems to have underperformed against Kairi. The x-stats from last year call for a doubling on Samus' part, but we've already seen what the Dream Division has done to these stats, not to mention Yuna (who was behind Samus/Mario last year) impressing in Round 2. Samus 68.16% 65,749 Rikku 31.84% 30,717 TOTAL VOTES 96,466 All signs seem to point to Rikku being overrated through Bowser, although the monkey wrench to that theory is her performance against Ryu, and Ryu's subsequent performance against Mega Man last round. This match might give us some idea as to what the hell is going on with Ryu, but for the moment, I can't see Rikku doing better on Samus then Frog did. Going with the trend of the female 1 seeds massively overperforming: TuRtLe's Prediction: Samus with 74.2% TuRtLe's Bracket: Samus TuRtLe's Vote: Samus TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 8:00:03 PM | message detail |
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And darn you kh for having a scarily similar analysis >_< TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/29/2006 8:00:52 PM | message detail |
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The sooner the better, but at the absolute latest, a few hours before the match starts. --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Auron vs. Sub-Zero- Bracket: Auron - Vote: Auron (54/62) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 8:03:22 PM | message detail |
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The match is Wednesday, so I'll probably do it up Tuesday morning. TuRtLe ~~~ 55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
