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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 411

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/30/2006 12:26:39 PM | message detail
Heh, she'll hit 70% with room to spare if she keeps having updates like those.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/30/2006 12:59:34 PM | message detail
Woo Samus! I was kind of worried when she dipped to 67% this morning, but now 69-70% looks pretty good. Great job, Samus.

So let's see, Rikku doesn't actually look too bad here. Samus may have boosted, but this is around what both were projected to get in 2005, meaning Rikku's value is more or less legit. Still, that's really strange seeing as how it looks like she overperformed on Ryu.

So yeah, another strike against Mega Man and Ryu. Man I can't wait until MM faces Sora...
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 1:02:07 PM | message detail
Meh, just an underestimation of Rikku, yo.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/30/2006 1:02:59 PM | message detail
I'm going to be disappointed in Samus if she can't beat Crono.

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Can't think of a good sig.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 1:10:39 PM | message detail
I'm going to be thrilled, personally.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/30/2006 1:13:43 PM | message detail
If Samus loses to crono, I think I'll go cry in a corner since that would mean she's gone from the strongest noble niner that isn't part of clinkeroth to in the bottom half of the noble nine within a two year period.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 1:15:26 PM | message detail
She wouldn't have beaten Mario in 2004 either. Whether she's stronger indirectly in 2005 is anybody's guess.

Still, she might've made it close in 2004 though. Mario wasn't impressive at all that year.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/30/2006 1:16:16 PM | message detail
And yes, I just said I'd go cry in a corner. Got a problem with that emophobes?!?!?!?!?!!?

Note: I'm not actually emo. >_>
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/30/2006 1:17:49 PM | message detail
She wouldn't have beaten Mario in 2004 either. Whether she's stronger indirectly in 2005 is anybody's guess.

Still, she might've made it close in 2004 though. Mario wasn't impressive at all that year.


I said in a two year period. I'm talking more about our perception of her, since most people did consider her the strongest noble niner outside of clinkeroth after 2k4.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/30/2006 1:21:26 PM | message detail
Well Samus has been stalling for the past 50 minutes...
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: SMAUS with 68.11%
Master Moltar | Posted 10/30/2006 1:22:07 PM | message detail
Meh, just an underestimation of Rikku, yo.

Are you saying she was underestimated before the match with Ryu or her 2005 value is?

If the former, that still explains nothing about MM/Ryu, unless MM has dropped hard, because I wouldn't put Rikku much higher than that match suggested.

If the latter, then Samus must have boosted alot if she was underestmiated in 2005.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 1:22:47 PM | message detail
A lot of people still view her that way. She's essentially considered dead even with Mario, with him having the edge head-to-head, of course.

If she loses to Crono, then she's out of luck, obviously, but that's her own fault.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 1:24:02 PM | message detail
I'm saying that people are underestimating Rikku's strength by saying she obviously couldn't have performed that well on her own merit. *shrugs* I don't see why not. FFX is obviously a popular game and has produced some good characters for the contests.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/30/2006 1:26:22 PM | message detail
Just one random fun match.

Vaan (The main character of FFXII, his name is Vaan right?)
VS
Magus.

Who would you guys pick?
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Supporter of Chun Li
__hiei__ | Posted 10/30/2006 1:28:36 PM | message detail
duh

Magus
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/30/2006 1:29:55 PM | message detail
Magus...

He would have to be near Tidus level or maybe even a little higher to beat him. And I don't think FFXII will be as successful as FFX
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Miss_Rydia | Posted 10/30/2006 1:30:17 PM | message detail
Right now? Magus
2007? Vaan

<3 Miss R
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I love Detroit sports!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/30/2006 1:38:49 PM | message detail
Though, I suppose Tidus was better in 2002 the year after his game was released than he is now. So Vaan Vs. Magus would be a good match if it was held right after the game was out.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 1:50:05 PM | message detail
From what I'm reading about the cast, FFXII might suffer from the FFVI Syndrome (though probably to not as great of an extent): There really is no distinct main character. You're not even required to have Vaan in your party the entire time.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
Master Moltar | Posted 10/30/2006 1:51:55 PM | message detail
Just what we need, another FF game full of weaklings!!

Though I'm sure there will be some fan-favorite that would perform decently.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Rikku - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (56/64)
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/30/2006 2:28:39 PM | message detail
Unless Magus is also massively overrated last year somehow, I can't see anyone from FFXII challenging him.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
RadiantRikku | Posted 10/30/2006 2:43:05 PM | message detail
Boooooo. Terrible match. Stupid kiddies.

Looks like Riku really is stronger than Rikku. Indirectly, at least...
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Rikku > Samus!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/30/2006 3:10:00 PM | message detail
I really don't see Vaan as the strongest character from FFXII. He just looks horrible, and at least one person (me) is going to kick his ass out of the party as soon as possible to make way for the cooler characters. I could see Ashe and Balthier as stronger.

Though maybe I should actually wait until I've played the game. 5 more hours !!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
eclipsedv1 | Posted 10/30/2006 3:11:28 PM | message detail
Who cares how characters look? Tidus looks like a complete idiot but he was very likable and easy to identify with unless you like characters such as Squall or Cloud.
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Currently Playing: Tales of the Abyss, Disgaea 2
trannyscience | Posted 10/30/2006 3:11:51 PM | message detail
yeah, and Tidus is second on the FFX scale at best. he might even be fourth.
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zizzy
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/30/2006 3:12:10 PM | message detail
Why is it that every single male lead since FF7 was been girly/effeminate? When are they going to do something different for a change?

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Can't think of a good sig.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/30/2006 3:12:12 PM | message detail
I think Fran could be a midcarder, all the other characters either looks horrible or has boring profiles. Then again I've only read the profiles on Square_enix's website, but a sky pirate who only steals from those who deserves it? So now Robin Hood was a landpirate?
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Supporter of Chun Li
therealmnm | Posted 10/30/2006 3:13:12 PM | message detail
FFXII? Meh. I'm going to probably hold off on that game. I just don't have as much fun with RPGs as I used to. I'll get it eventually, but there are other things in the next month worth my $50. The only character that looks interesting to me is Fran. <_<
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 3:13:33 PM | message detail
He's like a mix between Robin Hood and Aladdin. Silly street rat.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/30/2006 3:13:38 PM | message detail
I believe in the theory that Ryu underpeformed on Bowser just enough to offset the Bowser overperformance of Snake, making Rikku the ONLY character properly placed in the 2k5 X-stats.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 3:15:29 PM | message detail
...If Rikku is properly placed, doesn't it imply that Ryu is properly placed as well?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/30/2006 3:18:08 PM | message detail
>_>

>_>

>_>

Maybe.....
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
trannyscience | Posted 10/30/2006 3:22:21 PM | message detail
not that I really put too much into this match, but this seems to validate Mega Man's strength a bit. Rikku's looking to be stronger than previously thought, or at least that she wasn't overrated by the Dream Division. maybe Bowser did indeed overperform on Ryu, who knows.

this also puts Kairi at around the fodder line. that's higher than I would have thought Kairi would be before the contest started, and if she got SFF'd she's looking even better. if Kairi = Axel, MM suddenly doesn't look so bad.

*shrugs*
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zizzy
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/30/2006 3:24:10 PM | message detail
Hmm, what if you think Axel would own Kairi, cause personally that's what I'd predict to happen in that match.

By own I mean 55/45 or greater differential in Axel's favor.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/30/2006 3:26:15 PM | message detail
So, what are people expecting from tomorrow's match? The stats have Tifa getting 67% on Jill 2k4 and 64.6% on Hayabusa 2k5. Of course, Tifa's had KH2 and AC since then, so she'll likely do better. I can certainly see her hitting the higher end of that scale, with a stronger Tifa and a Peach who looks somewhat stronger than Jill 2k4.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/30/2006 3:26:52 PM | message detail
Tifa with 70%
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Supporter of Chun Li
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/30/2006 3:29:16 PM | message detail
If Rikku ends at 31%, using a constant Samus that still projects Ryu to be at 29.19, which is still a lil' below his 2k5 value. That validates MM's strength a bit, but not much. Of course if we're dealing with a stronger Samus here, it makes things line up a bit more.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/30/2006 3:29:42 PM | message detail
Tifa with 65% or under. I smell a Peach overperformance here.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Kaxon | Posted 10/30/2006 3:30:33 PM | message detail
Well, I was away yesterday, but it seems like tons of people were bashing Mega Man for his performance against Ryu. I have to say, I don't think it was as disastrous as most people seem to. The outcome can easily be explained by the concept of regression to the mean.

In this topic, people usually assume that if someone performs badly (Ryu last year, for example), that just flat out means he's less popular than before. That's true to some extent, but there's also some random variation in these matches, so when Ryu's coming off his worst loss ever (against Bowser), you should expect him to bounce back closer to his previous strength. The matches against Samus, Snake, and Sonic don't mean nothing just because he performed badly last year - his real current strength is probably somewhere in between his score from last year and his earlier scores.
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....TCELES B HSUP
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 3:30:37 PM | message detail
I smell a Tifa beatdown worse than what Samus is doing today.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
HaRRicH | Posted 10/30/2006 3:30:41 PM | message detail
I'll **** a brick if Tifa finishes with 70+%.
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http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1)
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/30/2006 3:31:19 PM | message detail
Oh man, I can't wait to see Vlado's Analysis for this one.
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CB5 Points: 59/64, Current Oracle placement: 26/165
Now playing: Okami
Lopen | Posted 10/30/2006 3:32:36 PM | message detail
Vlado won't be the highest Tifa predictor! Count on it!
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/30/2006 3:35:50 PM | message detail
Samus finally up to 69%. Too bad she probably wont keep it. : (

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Can't think of a good sig.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/30/2006 3:37:24 PM | message detail
Vlado's Analysis

OMG TIFA!!!!!!!! ^_^_^_^_^ <3333 with 156.13%
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CB5 Points: 59/64, Current Oracle placement: 26/165
Now playing: Okami
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 3:37:52 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: HaRRicH endures great pain tomorrow! Count on it!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/30/2006 3:39:24 PM | message detail
I've never seen a topic so close to 500 finish so slowly

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
therealmnm | Posted 10/30/2006 3:39:42 PM | message detail
Knuckles > this bracket?
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/30/2006 3:39:53 PM | message detail
I've never seen a WHY IS THE RUM GONE?!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 6: Han Solo (5-0)
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/30/2006 3:39:55 PM | message detail
Well let's speed it up!
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CB5 Points: 59/64, Current Oracle placement: 26/165
Now playing: Okami