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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 410

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 12:51:54 AM | message detail
(1) Sora

Duh.

(4) Master Chief

No way Scorpion beats the Chief, Subby had a hard enough time as it was. We'll need to see MK get a resurgence of popularity before Scorpion has a chance here.

(6) Magus

Um...crap. I guess Magus is the 'safe' pick here, but I hardly feel comfortable doing it.

(2) Sub-Zero

HAW HAW AITCH EMM

(1) Sora

...yeah.

(6) Magus

Whoever comes out of Leon/Magus basically has a bye here.

(1) Sora

I think Sora can edge this out, but I'd really like to see him impress on MM before being certain.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 12:53:25 AM | message detail
...which reminds me. Scorpion vs. Ken, who ya got?

Sub-Zero looks like he's going to be able to give Ryu a bit of a fight as it is, and Scorpion should be closer to Sub-Zero than Ken is to Ryu...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/29/2006 12:54:01 AM | message detail
I'm not predicting that because of having to choose Sub-Zero. That's terrible.


And Scorpion v. Ken? Give me Masters for now.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 12:55:20 AM | message detail
Ryu > Sub > Scorp > Ken

I have a hard time imagining many people going Sub > MC > Scorp, so I could see Scorpion winning that match. of course I could see MC winning it too, but I really don't think the difference is all that great.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 12:55:22 AM | message detail
I'd have to go with Cait Sith sadly for the joke division, and Magus in the other one.

I doubt he's fallen THAT much.


(1) CATS
(8) Jay Solano

(4) Nidoran F
(5) Master Hand

(3) Cait Sith
(6) Laughing Dog

(2) Tingle
(7) Midgar Zolom

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 12:56:03 AM | message detail
though I could see some SF > MK SFF if it came down to that, too... I dunno, I think Scorpion is stronger but I could see Ken winning in a direct match.
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xyzzy
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/29/2006 12:57:19 AM | message detail
I doubt he's fallen THAT much.

Err, there's really nothing wrong with losing to Leon Kennedy. It's not about him falling so much at it is about Leon being a proven character.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 12:57:25 AM | message detail
(1) Sora
(8) Master Hand

(4) Master Chief
(5) Scorpion

(3) Leon Kennedy
(6) Magus

(2) Sub-Zero
(7) Ken Masters

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Xuxon | Posted 10/29/2006 12:57:55 AM | message detail
...is it just me, or is Auron winning the night vote?
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Take off every sig.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 12:58:03 AM | message detail
The thing about Scorpion is that unlike Sub-Zero, he generates a bit of anti-votes thanks to his overexposure. Come on, I couldn't have been the only one annoyed back in the day with people yelling, "GET OVER HERE" and "TOASTY" ad nauseum.

Scorpion doesn't get embarrassed, but I don't see him winning.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 12:58:28 AM | message detail
Leon is a proven character, but Magus did go toe to toe with Ganondorf while Leon only got about 44% on Bowser. That's too much ground to make up IMO

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/29/2006 12:58:48 AM | message detail
(1) Sora
(5) Scorpion

(3) Leon Kennedy
(2) Sub-Zero


I've always been big on Leon Kennedy and after his match with Bowser, it looks like he hit my projections pre-contest. It's close, but I think Leon can squeak out a victory here.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 12:59:13 AM | message detail
From Xuxon
...is it just me, or is Auron winning the night vote?

We won't know until we see the day vote

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 12:59:20 AM | message detail
Magus went toe-to-toe with a Ganondorf that nearly lost to Tidus. Don't bring that crap up with me.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 1:00:16 AM | message detail
Think of it this way, would you take Leon over Knuckles? Because I sure wouldn't.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/29/2006 1:00:36 AM | message detail
Leon is a proven character, but Magus did go toe to toe with Ganondorf while Leon only got about 44% on Bowser. That's too much ground to make up IMO

...Leon going 55/45 now is much more impressive than going 50/50 with Ganon back in 2003. I'm a huge Ganon supporter, but it's Ganon who has since proven himself to be something and gotten back to his old (overrated) value. Magus has no such luck. And, uh, remember Tidus being equal with these two as well? ...Yeah. Things have changed.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/29/2006 1:01:45 AM | message detail
Think of it this way, would you take Leon over Knuckles? Because I sure wouldn't.

Yes. I take Leon over Ryu and possibly Dante as well. There's no need to underestimate Leon here. It's not a foregone conclusion, but Leon is perfectly capable of winning that match and that division.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 1:04:15 AM | message detail
I'd like to think Tidus was a tad bit stronger back then compared to now. Granted 2k3 values should be taken with a grain of salt, but I think that that gap is a little too much for Leon to overcome, unless he gets another big game or something.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 1:04:59 AM | message detail
I was talking about this earlier... I think I still take Ryu, and it has nothing to do with his performance on Mega Man. I was thinking that after round 1, Ryu just will not go down so easily. Leon is no joke though, he's definitely capable of doing some damage.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 1:05:23 AM | message detail
Leon winning that division is possible, but not likely. I just can't see him beating Magus, overrated or not.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Draco1214 | Posted 10/29/2006 1:06:00 AM | message detail
Sora > Master Hand
Master Chief > Scorpion
Leon Kennedy > Magus
Sub-Zero > Ken Masters

Sora > Master Chief
Leon Kennedy > Sub-Zero

Sora > Leon Kennedy
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Currently Playing: Okami, King of Fighters 2002/2003, Gradius V
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 1:06:19 AM | message detail
Based on a constant Crono, Leon gets 47.5% on Magus 2k5. If Magus is overrated there at all -- and he could very well be just to being such a massive favorite when he went down -- that makes that match that much closer. I take Magus now, but Leon winning is a very real possibility, and I'd be very uneasy if that match came up.

When does Umbrella Chronicles or RE5 come out? That would definitely tip my favor to Leon if he got either before the match.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 1:07:23 AM | message detail
With Bowser's performance on Crono, wasn't it extrapolated that Leon only went up 1 or 2%?

Looking at the (lol) x-stats, he's still pretty far off Knuckles, overrated or not.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 1:07:36 AM | message detail
...is it just me, or is Auron winning the night vote?

dunno why this would be a surprise - Auron was a night vote kinda guy before KH and there's no reason for that to change. plus his first round opponent for Alucard, so it's not like winning the day vote is a big thing there. Auron is probably better in the day now than he used to be, but I'd expect Auron to still be better at night by a little bit.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 1:09:27 AM | message detail
If Leon gets a release like RE5 or the compilation, I will definitely take him to win the division. Otherwise, I have him losing closely, but comfortably against Magus

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 1:10:29 AM | message detail
You trust Knuckles if you like -- while I like the Devil Division being more or less spot on, Knuckles doesn't get off the hook that easily. Being projected to go 50/50 with Snake 2k4 doesn't square with me.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/29/2006 1:10:49 AM | message detail
When does Umbrella Chronicles or RE5 come out? That would definitely tip my favor to Leon if he got either before the match.

Sometime in 2007, but I'm not sure when.

I would like to see something like RE4 with slightly increased graphics, a bunch of extras, and then Wii Remote controls on the Wii though! <<

With Bowser's performance on Crono, wasn't it extrapolated that Leon only went up 1 or 2%?

~2.6%, yes. Knuckles is favored by the stats by a bit, certainly, but that doesn't mean he's a guaranteed win. In any case, Magus, as stated earlier, would be a "safe pick" but it's hardly something that isn't debatable.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 1:12:27 AM | message detail
I never said it wasn't debatable. I'd take Magus, but I would only be about 70% comfortable.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 1:13:45 AM | message detail
I just have a feeling that Magus is suffering from being exposed, in the sense that alot of people will underrate him in his next appearance for fear of getting burned.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Xuxon | Posted 10/29/2006 1:16:23 AM | message detail
(1) Sora
(4) Master Chief
(6) Magus
(2) Sub-Zero

Sora > Magus

I'm sort of surprised Sora isn't the favorite here. The only hard match in my mind is Leon vs Magus, though the winner does have a shot at Sora, I suppose...
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Take off every sig.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 1:17:04 AM | message detail
Magus being overrated to that extent isn't the problem, it's Knuckles.

Snake (2004c) VS Knuckles (2005c)

Snake has a strength of 33.05.
Knuckles has a strength of 32.49.

Snake wins with 50.85% of the vote!
A win of 1,522 with 89,807 total votes cast.


That is NOT a believable boost for Knuckles, and I'm not buying his 'true strength' being hidden all the time thanks to Snake either (or else that should have affected all the characters that have been behind him, i.e. Yuna and Kefka). Especially when he coincidentally has such a great match right after his shocking upset of Magus, when the board decided to bandwagon him like crazy in a direct response to that. I can easily see Knux overperforming there, and that would overrate Magus as well.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 1:17:09 AM | message detail
I'll wait until his match with Mega Man before passing final judgement on Sora, but I doubt he's that high.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 1:18:17 AM | message detail
you can put me in the "uh sorry knuckles but no" camp too - give me Ryu vs. Knuckles and I take Ryu. I probably take Leon too. Knuckles could win that match, but I'd pick against what the stats say there.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 1:18:22 AM | message detail
People are just bummed on Sora because of Gordon Freeman (y'know, the same thing that happened to Mega Man last year). I don't see him losing to Ryu, so unless Ryu fluked that percentage on MM he should do very well there.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
zwong1 | Posted 10/29/2006 1:23:08 AM | message detail
Did Gordon have any boost this year because i don't think 64% against Gordon is a very sign of Kh2 boost. If Kh2 boost was really big, Sora should at least broke 66% on Gordon Freeman.

I think Sora will most probably only break 43% on Megaman considering Megaman is the King of Sprite round.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 1:25:36 AM | message detail
King of Sprite Round, eh? Lemme see...

2002 - nearly beats Sephiroth
2003 - crushes Tommy Vercetti far worse than most anyone expected
2004 - lol Zero
2005 - crushes Yoshi into oblivion

I'm feeling an additional title for the KING OF SFF !!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/29/2006 1:26:53 AM | message detail
Yeah, King of Jobbing to Snake.
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CB5 Points: 57/62, Current Oracle placement: 26/165
Now playing: Okami
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/29/2006 1:28:43 AM | message detail
2002 just doesn't count. <<

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
zwong1 | Posted 10/29/2006 1:29:01 AM | message detail
Mind if i ask a question, why does no one believe that Cloud and Sephiroth have the strength to defeat Link after Kh2 boost. Of course, i am a Link supporter but i just find it strange that almost 85% of the user here think that link will definitely without a doubt win the battle royal.


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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/29/2006 1:29:13 AM | message detail
Well Yuna has been overperforming since her performance aganist Knuckles, and Kefka should have lost easily to Tommy and instead went 50-50. <__<
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic The Hedgehog Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO SONIC!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 1:30:41 AM | message detail
And I'm sure FFX-2 and Vercetti dropping like a rock had nothing to do with that whatsoever.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Xuxon | Posted 10/29/2006 1:37:27 AM | message detail
About Auron winning the night vote. It just shows how polarized Chief and Alucard are, seeing as Master Chief got a nice swing against Sub, and Auron did too against Alucard. Makes me think they would practically double one another during their respective best times.
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Take off every sig.
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/29/2006 1:38:34 AM | message detail
Of course, i am a Link supporter but i just find it strange that almost 85% of the user here think that link will definitely without a doubt win the battle royal.

It probably has something to do with the fact that Link has exactly one loss in his entire contest history -- and that was back in 2003. For as "competitive" as it seems, Link has been completely and utterly dominate year in and year out. What occurred in 2003 was a voter shift toward Square. It was more of a unique situation than something that is standard.

Kingdom Hearts II did come out, but I wouldn't imagine very many people are figuring that will be enough to topple Link. It's pretty clear that there is no such voter shift occurring again and characters who appeared in KH and now in KH2 don't really seem to be doing much. Even new FF characters aren't exactly monsters after it.

On top of all this, Link is already clearly ahead of Cloud and has Twilight Princess right on the horizon. It's not "one year from being out" hype; rather, it's "Holy crap tomorrow I can get Twilight Princess and I already like Link more" hype. Hell, if there is so much as a one day "break" in between the main bracket and Battle Royale, or some other odd occurrence, then Link/Cloud falls on TP release day.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
zwong1 | Posted 10/29/2006 1:40:04 AM | message detail
TehMissingLink, thanks for your information.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
transience | Posted 10/29/2006 1:40:21 AM | message detail
well, MC would lose the night vote to Speck of Dust. how long did it take him to break 60% on CATS?
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xyzzy
greatone10 | Posted 10/29/2006 1:42:12 AM | message detail
2005 - crushes Yoshi into oblivion

Try next round.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
zwong1 | Posted 10/29/2006 1:43:47 AM | message detail
greatone10, why do you mean by try next round.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/29/2006 1:44:06 AM | message detail
Bah, I just glanced at MM/Yoshi's picture and completely forgot that wasn't 'technically' the sprite round. MM ended up getting two sprites in 2005 then, one where he crushed Yoshi and the other where he edged out Sonic. Same deal, really!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
greatone10 | Posted 10/29/2006 1:44:49 AM | message detail
Round 3 was not the sprite round that year. It didn't happen until Round 4.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/29/2006 1:45:26 AM | message detail
Mega Man is the anti-Snake! He overperforms in the sprite round instead of underperforms!

Sonic > Crono confirmed !!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."