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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 410

HoorayProxies | Posted 10/29/2006 8:00:20 AM | message detail
Okay... assuming a constant MC, Sub-Zero ends up around 31.5 on BL, and Auron ends up around 38.8% on BL. A 8% increase from last year, putting him 50/50 with Crono.

The numbers are pretty close to the exact figures, but they might be off slightly.

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SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/29/2006 8:03:47 AM | message detail
Too bad MC enjoys to screw the x-stats rules time and time again.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2006 8:04:28 AM | message detail
If I were to extrapolate through Master Chief I would just use the 25% value.

He got around there in 2K3 according to Aeris, he went 50-50 with Frog, who is apparently around that general area according to Samus, and he beat Donkey Kong, who also generally lands in that area from year to year. Would put Sub-Zero at about 25.5 and Auron at just over 32. And poor Alucard at 23.

The plan is working


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Who Cares? | Posted 10/29/2006 8:15:22 AM | message detail
Looks like Auron's finishing this thing in the 59-61% range since FFX characters tend to have very stable matches. Good show Shred-Zero!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd)
*Go play Tales of the Abyss NOW!!*
Who Cares? | Posted 10/29/2006 8:41:08 AM | message detail
...and I dunno if anyone's noticed, but this match's votals is currently ahead of Snake/Squall by about 5000 at this mark! Mortal Kombat bringing in the votes?! o_0
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd)
*Go play Tales of the Abyss NOW!!*
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2006 8:42:25 AM | message detail
Well, the match got about 6000 extra votes in that extra hour.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Redtooth | Posted 10/29/2006 8:42:34 AM | message detail
More like daylights savings time screwing with the totals.

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
Who Cares? | Posted 10/29/2006 8:44:15 AM | message detail
Duh! ...Yeah, forgot 'bout that! >_>
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd)
*Go play Tales of the Abyss NOW!!*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:29:07 AM | message detail
MyworldisSmurf
Posted 10/29/2006 8:44:15 AM
#432 MM is a series that has done nothing even remotely of note for 10 years. It's crazy that he's even in the noble 9.

Although, the same applies for Crono.


lol sonic

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:30:26 AM | message detail
And if you change that 10 to a nine:

lol cloud
lol sephiroth
lol link
lol mario

So basically Snake and Smaus are the only NNers who've actually had a decent game since the 90's.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/29/2006 9:30:46 AM | message detail
Wow. Before this contest, I would have expected Sub-Zero to get 30% at most. >_>

How lame.
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caps
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/29/2006 9:31:38 AM | message detail
So basically Snake and Smaus are the only NNers who've actually had a decent game since the 90's.

Nah Super Mario Sunshine, Wind Waker and Kingdom Hearts were awesome games. then again so was Sonic Adventure, but I think that game got released in 1999
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Supporter of Chun Li
BDawg | Posted 10/29/2006 9:33:39 AM | message detail
Haha Subzero is taking the church vote!
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Should I start running now?
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2006 9:34:04 AM | message detail
Good Chrstian spine removers
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/29/2006 9:34:56 AM | message detail
darn you christians

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The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:34:59 AM | message detail
Auron went to hell. Why would any Christian vote for him?
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/29/2006 9:37:26 AM | message detail
Greek Underworld =/= Hell

Yeah, >_>
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The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 10/29/2006 9:38:24 AM | message detail
Yeah, well if they are crazy enough to believe in God, they are crazy enough to not be able to tell the difference.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 10/29/2006 10:27:47 AM | message detail
Good show by Sero here (I refuse to refer to him as subby >_>). Looks like he'll finish around 40.5% if this keeps up, unless Auron has some sort of vote swing still to come for him (which is doubtful given that this is a weekend).

Speaking of pallette swaps... was sub zero in MK1? If not, he's probably the first clonish character that's stronger then who they've cloned.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2006 10:32:06 AM | message detail
Yes, he was in Mortal Kombat one. I don't really think the two have a Ryu/Ken relationship because they're both pretty equally prominent. I'd probably give the nod to Sub-Zero as being more important to the story though. And Scorpion's character is based on revenge for Sub-Zero's actions, so if it wasn't for Sub-Zero, Scorpion wouldn't really exist.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
wavedash101 | Posted 10/29/2006 10:34:07 AM | message detail
Wow Subby very well may bring Auron under 60%. Thats some show of strength!
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Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2006 10:37:34 AM | message detail
I got a question now: would anybody take any Street Fighter character not named Ryu over Sub-Zero right now? I remember talk of SF characters being able to SFF MK characters, and I'm curious to see how people feel about Sub-Zero facing Ken or Akuma or somebody else from the SF series now.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 10/29/2006 10:43:39 AM | message detail
...And Auron has consistently lost exactly 0.01% per update for the last 5 updates. Strange.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2006 10:45:38 AM | message detail
Now that trend's broken, for the better.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/29/2006 10:47:31 AM | message detail
Sub-Zero would whoop Akuma and Ken's butts respectively, if ya ask me.
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Yesmar | Posted 10/29/2006 10:56:37 AM | message detail
Here's my theory on Master Chief and anti-votes, or really any other character who gets anti-votes, and it helps explain why he's so variable.

The less popular the character MC faces, the better they are able to do with anti-votes. The more popular the character gets, the less votes they receive from anti-votes because there is a better and better chance that the voters would have voted against Chief anyway

This means that while Chief performs better against stronger characters, it's not because of some voting bloc that stretches to fit his needs, but because his anti-votes are more diluted.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 10/29/2006 11:00:12 AM | message detail
I thought we already agreed that anti-votes alongside a devoted fanbase made MC overperform on stronger characters and underperform on weaker characters a while ago. >_>

Good to see other people agreeing though.
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/29/2006 11:00:37 AM | message detail
I agree with that... I think the higest x-stat value MC can actually beat is 25-26% on BL, though it obviously wouldn't be like that in all situations. If you're stronger than that, you're taking him down, and the stronger you are, the better MC is gonna look against you.

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 11:07:26 AM | message detail
I have a hard time imagining many people going Sub > MC > Scorp, so I could see Scorpion winning that match

You wouldn't think there'd be a noticeable amount of people who have Ryu > Samus > Ken or Ryu > Sonic > Ken, but there is. It would be the same here. I love Sub-Zero, but I am not an overly big Scorpion fan.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 11:08:25 AM | message detail
I'd like to see Chief go up against Link just to see him break 35% or something

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/29/2006 11:08:32 AM | message detail
Nah, I'm with tranny on this one. The fanbases are too distinct I think. After seeing Subby take out MC, if I had the chance to pick Scorp/MC for a match the next day I would have taken Scorp no doubt.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/29/2006 11:08:55 AM | message detail
The only problem I had with Sub-Zero winning his match is that would mean he could also beat Donkey Kong. I didn't think MK was that popular.

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HoorayProxies | Posted 10/29/2006 11:10:03 AM | message detail
I'd totally take DK > Sub-Zero. >_>

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2006 11:10:05 AM | message detail
I'd have taken MC the day after MC/Sub-Zero -- I'm sure Sub-Zero's more than 1% stronger than Scorpion.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/29/2006 11:10:19 AM | message detail
I maintain that at least a good chunk of Subby's strength is from his recent (big) releases. Hold this match last year and I can't see him doing much better than 2% better than Scorps did.

TuRtLe
~~~
55/62 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/29/2006 11:11:03 AM | message detail
I think you're bound by the x-stats way too much. Subby probably is stronger than Scorp, but against MC I really don't see him turning that around.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/29/2006 11:13:49 AM | message detail
Accounting for possible bracket voting(Master Chief having more than 25,000 more brackets than Sub-Zero and still losing like that. If it was 50-50 I could see Sub-Zero maybe even approaching 52%) I think it would be a good match. I'd still take Chief though
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/29/2006 11:14:04 AM | message detail
There's no "probably" to it though, only definitely -- again, Scorpion got 35.15% against Auron pre-KH2 while Sub-Zero currently has an even 40% against a post-KH2 Auron. We've seen Sub-Zero dominate the MK-fave poll with Scorpion, too, so I don't see why there's not a big enough gap between Sub-Zero and Scorpion for MC to fall between, especially since he barely lost to Sub-Zero.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 11:18:15 AM | message detail
The only problem I had with Sub-Zero winning his match is that would mean he could also beat Donkey Kong. I didn't think MK was that popular.

...Since when did DK become a pillar of strength? Heck, when Scorpion was still in the contests, matches between them would have been very close each year.

Nah, I'm with tranny on this one. The fanbases are too distinct I think.

Well, you're already seeing a fair amount who have Sub-Zero > Auron > Scorpion (Hey, I'm one of 'em!), unless you think Scorpion could be pushing 40% now, too. The idea never worked for Ryu and Ken. I have no idea why people think it holds true for these two.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
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HoorayProxies | Posted 10/29/2006 11:18:22 AM | message detail
Add to it that KH2 did nothing for Auron (Oh snap!), and MK has just had big releases, and that's plenty of reason for him to be doing better here. That and 2K3 is just different from 2K6, it's 3 years later, stuff changes. As for the favorites poll, they're notoriously wrong.

I'm not disputing whether or not Sub is strong than Scorp, I think he is, obviously not to the level you guys do, but regardless, that's not what I'm arguing, I'm arguing that Scorp would still beat MC regardless of x-stat placement.

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swirIdude | Posted 10/29/2006 11:19:26 AM | message detail
TOSS-UP Sub-Zero or DK?
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Janus5000 | Posted 10/29/2006 11:19:50 AM | message detail
Subby.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 11:20:20 AM | message detail
As for the favorites poll, they're notoriously wrong.

Well, the only other instance we have where one character has dominated it so handily was Auron in the FFX poll. I think it's safe to say he's the most popular from that one.

And Sub-Zero's got it below 60% now! Huzzah!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
FFDragon | Posted 10/29/2006 11:20:23 AM | message detail
Subby over 40% again = Sex
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/29/2006 11:21:46 AM | message detail
Sub-Zero = Best new entry in this contest
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 11:22:10 AM | message detail
Naturally. Sub-Zero > Prince of Persia
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/29/2006 11:22:28 AM | message detail
When Luigi beats Sonic you won't be saying that!

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FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/29/2006 11:23:07 AM | message detail
Yoshi > Snake!
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/29/2006 11:23:14 AM | message detail
Rikku > Samus!
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caps
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/29/2006 11:23:15 AM | message detail
When Sonic breaks 60% on Luigi, I will!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: W, 35-15 vs. Darkwing Duck