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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 409

transience | Posted 10/27/2006 11:43:22 PM | message detail
Crono's got a great chance at Samus and did prior to this match. I wanted to take Crono so bad, but picked Samus because of (lol) Metroid Prime 3.
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/27/2006 11:44:14 PM | message detail
Samus is projected to get 62.44% on Luigi 2k5, if she isn't underadjusted !!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
Sir Crono | Posted 10/27/2006 11:44:25 PM | message detail
I picked Samus because I've never had the winner of the contest in my bracket and hope to continue that trend.
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As you wish.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 11:51:11 PM | message detail
I'm still confounded by people who were counting on MP3 to be released on time. It was a big, highly anticipated Nintendo game. WHEN DO THOSE NOT GET DELAYED?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Sir Crono | Posted 10/27/2006 11:53:32 PM | message detail
Crono's percentage in the last hour: 64.50%

To quote Sir Crono Smith himself: "..."
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As you wish.
transience | Posted 10/27/2006 11:55:21 PM | message detail
well, I wasn't counting on it, but Samus/Crono was a tossup to me. if it comes out, it's not a tossup anymore. simple as that.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2006 12:02:24 AM | message detail
So you think!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/28/2006 12:27:15 AM | message detail
Wow, so Bowser is a fraud on Magus's and Tidus's level?
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Sir Crono | Posted 10/28/2006 12:27:46 AM | message detail
Nah, more on Shadow's level.
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As you wish.
janembaman | Posted 10/28/2006 12:28:57 AM | message detail
Only 60% will get this match right,book it
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laff
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/28/2006 12:34:10 AM | message detail
Nobody ever proved that Shadow didn't deserve his 45% on Mario.
The proof that Bowser overperformed on Snake is right here.

I'd even consider Frog > Bowser, after this. ^_^
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2006 12:35:24 AM | message detail
Shadow didn't deserve his 49% on Tidus.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Sir Crono | Posted 10/28/2006 12:37:09 AM | message detail
Nobody ever proved that Shadow didn't deserve his 45% on Mario.

In your own mind. Odd that you would list Bowser on a list of frauds with Tidus and conveniently neglect that such a fraud beat Shadow.

Actually, it's not odd. If you didn't do such a thing, I'd be shocked.
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As you wish.
Kaxon | Posted 10/28/2006 1:06:10 AM | message detail
I'm loving this. I'm leaning more toward the "Bowser dropped/was overrated" theory than the "Crono boosted" theory, but I love seeing Crono do well. Keep it over 60%!
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....TCELES B HSUP
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/28/2006 1:08:25 AM | message detail
Who wins this 4 pack?

Bowser
Frog

Sora
Zero
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/28/2006 1:09:34 AM | message detail
Crono never really boosts, so this is all Bowser's spoofing. I guess Leon didn't gain at all either.

Shocking how Yoshi and Luigi can continue to boost while Bowser somehow doesn't.
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
janembaman | Posted 10/28/2006 1:09:48 AM | message detail
How fun
From now on,until Megaman/Snake,all matches are easy to predict
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laff
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/28/2006 1:12:53 AM | message detail
MegaMan Snake is very easy to predict.

If Bowser was overrated, that makes Megaman's showing on Ryu even less impressive again. XD
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 10/28/2006 1:20:28 AM | message detail
Sonic is now the only character going without a win on another noble niner. =o
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
The_Lady_Ashe | Posted 10/28/2006 1:21:03 AM | message detail
Only noble nine character, I mean. >_>
~~~
The one. The only. Lady Ashe.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/28/2006 1:29:50 AM | message detail
So much for Bowser > Ganondorf. Now Luigi VS Sonic will be really interesting.
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Supporter of Chun Li
transience | Posted 10/28/2006 1:32:29 AM | message detail
if anything, this makes Sonic > Luigi more likely, though I don't think Bowser was this weak last year. this is just a bad year for him for whatever reason.

though if both Kirby and Zero were overrated, that does explain Luigi a little bit better. this puts Bowser at 32% last I checked (he's probably lower now), about the area Luigi was at last year.
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xyzzy
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/28/2006 1:37:47 AM | message detail
If characters like Frog and Bowser can overperform as hell on Solid Snake thanks to the sprite round, then I wonder what someone who can beat Mario in a favourite character poll and beat Dante in a regular poll do to him.

Yoshi FTW!
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Supporter of Chun Li
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2006 1:40:03 AM | message detail
This is a watered-down sprite round anyway, and even with his vaunted 'fan-favoritism' Bowser pounded Yoshi in a situation where you'd expect Yoshi to overperform.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/28/2006 1:42:27 AM | message detail
yeah, I was thinking before this match "I have a funny Snake-Sora feeling here", and it's possible I guess. I trust no logical person would take Dante over Bowser after seeing this, right? Bowser isn't as weak as he looks here.
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xyzzy
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/28/2006 1:45:32 AM | message detail
Crono just gained 6 votes in this update. LOL Bowser comeback.
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Supporter of Chun Li
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2006 1:56:24 AM | message detail
Well I just lost my big long post somehow so I'll shorten it.

-um this doesn't look good for Mega Man/Ryu
-if Bowser and Frog overperformed in the sprite round, you'd expect Ryu to in 2003
-drop Ryu by as much as Ken fell in 2k3 and he's at 27.84, a little above Alucard 2k3
-adjusting Bowser by this puts him at 33.93, a little ahead of Zelda 2k5, which suggests it's too high
-adjusting Dante by this puts him at 25.60, this is a smidge above his 2k2 value (which means he didn't boost much or at all from DMC2), but it's a few points below his Viewtiful Dante 2k4 value
-Dante's probably more reliable than Bowser, but even adjusting through his 2k4 value makes Ryu 2k3 look worse
-Ryu looked good in 2004, which is MM's saving grace. However, MM still underperforms even when using that value.
-Ryu and KOS-MOS both took very severe apparent drops in 2005, which is a big warning sign
-Ryu got 55% on Rikku, who has failed to impress

Ryu doesn't seem very consistent at all, looking at this! I'm tempted to call the whole thing a wash, but adjusting Ryu by the Bowser that's going to come out of this is going to look very, VERY bad for MM. The one saving grace is that it's Snake's fault that this is happening in the first place, and there's a .01% chance that we'll be seeing MM/Yoshi II based on that.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/28/2006 2:06:13 AM | message detail
I think it's a bad idea to see a bad performance and then try to find an "answer" by making the numbers fit the bad performance, personally. I remember thinking the same thing when Zero bombed - was Zero 2k3 overrated, and therefore Scorpion? is Sub-Zero gonna get killed by Master Chief?

he ended up doing just fine, I dare say. this is something that happened this year. I don't think Chun Li is below Bison and barely breaking the fodder line. I don't think Bowser loses to Yoshi now.

though if you want to play along with the idea, you could say that Pac-Man losing to Ocelot makes a lot more sense... eh, whatever.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2006 2:09:38 AM | message detail
I daresay Ocelot did better than expected if you're going to put it that way, since even the slightest overrating of Bowser from the VC puts him below Kefka. But then again, Pac-Man might have lost strength as well...Ocelot just seems unreliable in general, but then again so does anyone else we use.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2006 2:18:34 AM | message detail
But here's something to think about...assuming no big boost for Crono or no big drop for Mega Man, we have a very real possibility of seeing Ryu > Bowser this year.

...yeah.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/28/2006 2:19:42 AM | message detail
Bowser isn't as weak as he looks here.

Why not? He choked aganist Crono and Leon. There's little room for debate about his strength now.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/28/2006 2:24:40 AM | message detail
In fact, assuming a constant Crono and Mega Man, Ryu is projected to beat Bowser right now with around 52.9% of the vote. Now, Bowser will make that closer during the day, but the fact that it's so close at all -- let alone favoring Ryu -- is cause for alarm.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/28/2006 2:38:19 AM | message detail
conclusion:

*hugs new stats*

I love contest season. it's stuff like this that kicks ass, where we get to the one match that will help clear things up and it just messes them up more.

CAN I GET A HELL YEAH
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xyzzy
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/28/2006 2:55:08 AM | message detail
If only Knuckles was put aganist Bowser this year. He could have exposed another fraud. -_-
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/28/2006 2:57:41 AM | message detail
If only Knuckles gets snubbed again next year. Then we have no more frauds!
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caps
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/28/2006 3:14:45 AM | message detail
Just you wait til the kiddies wakes up Crono >_>
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Supporter of Chun Li
transience | Posted 10/28/2006 3:44:40 AM | message detail
this must be the dreaded Nintendo morning vote. Bowser almost won that update.
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xyzzy
Gooper Blooper | Posted 10/28/2006 3:45:57 AM | message detail
This match irks me.

Dammit, Bowser, what the hell happened? Did Luigi steal all your power?
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face it cjay i have the high ground i have powend you - ertyu
transience | Posted 10/28/2006 3:46:37 AM | message detail
Heroic Mario got behind him, that's what happened!
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xyzzy
triviaman | Posted 10/28/2006 3:55:50 AM | message detail
well, hey, at least Bowser finally decided to enter the match. he's trying to make this semi-respectable now. he came very close to even winning a couple of updates. he should be able to finish over 40% and may even break 42% - but i don't see him going any higher than that. overall, Bowser won't quite disappoint as badly as we first thought.

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This is cyko posting from a friend's house!!!
>_>
zwong1 | Posted 10/28/2006 4:06:48 AM | message detail
I can only hope that Bowser can at least make it to 42%.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/28/2006 4:07:37 AM | message detail
Mario > Yoshi > Luigi > Bowser

LOL
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic The Hedgehog Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO SONIC!
meche313 | Posted 10/28/2006 4:08:32 AM | message detail
There it is.

Bowser just won an update.
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You're in a clique with Vlado and Inviso. That's the nerdy group in the school cafeteria that sits away from everybody else gossiping about the cool kids in whispers, except instead of whispers, it's AIM, and instead of the school cafeteria, it's the board 8 community. -- Shake
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/28/2006 4:08:46 AM | message detail
I think Captain Falcon gained 4% during the match on Crono. Granted it will be harder for Bowser to gain that much, but if he keeps winning some updates then I think he can.
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Supporter of Chun Li
zwong1 | Posted 10/28/2006 4:11:20 AM | message detail
At least Bowser won a update against Crono. Guys like Squall had never won a update against Snake.

Believe me, day votes is going to help Bowser.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
voltch | Posted 10/28/2006 4:13:05 AM | message detail
crono is impressve this year,maybe he might knock out mario out of the battle royale.
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
Not_1 | Posted 10/28/2006 4:13:46 AM | message detail
Bowser will definitely gain some percentages, much like Lara did against Chunny.
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And I need all the love I can get
And I need all the love that I can't get to(o)
zwong1 | Posted 10/28/2006 4:15:20 AM | message detail
What do you guys think Sonic and Snake will put on Crono?
Sonic-47%
Snake-48.5%
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/28/2006 4:19:54 AM | message detail
Sonic: 50.4%
Snake: Not going to happen, because Megaman will beat him.

However I'm not confident in this picks >_>
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Supporter of Chun Li
zwong1 | Posted 10/28/2006 4:21:15 AM | message detail
At this rate, Bowser may be reaching 40% by the next two hours.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake