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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 408

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 7:53:38 PM | message detail
If Crono gets 58%+, coupled with Luigi and Yoshi's performances so far, I'm giving him an outside shot at Bowser.

...these typos are starting to kill me!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 7:53:59 PM | message detail
I don't think he does as of this point of time.. I said if Crono hits 60%, which I don't expect to be happening. I give it to Crono with 57% or so.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 7:54:28 PM | message detail
Grah! You got some Bowser in my Crono!

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/27/2006 7:54:39 PM | message detail
1. Snake looks stronger than last year
2. Yoshi is weaker than Bowser
3. The sprite round will be "watered-down kryptonite" for Snake this round thanks to the background faces.

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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 7:55:57 PM | message detail
1. Snake looks stronger than last year

A beatdown of a unknown character who should be really weak, and a SFF match makes someone look stronger now? Oh man, get me in on this action.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 7:58:26 PM | message detail
I'm calling it right now. Snake gets 60% on Yoshi.

And STILL loses to Mega Man HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA TAKE THAT EC
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/27/2006 7:59:36 PM | message detail
Yoshi still has no shot at Snake.
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 8:00:05 PM | message detail
Uhm... I've been saying he's gonna lose to MM. >_>

Oh, and there's no way Snake comes close to 60% on Yoshi.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
trannyscience | Posted 10/27/2006 8:00:21 PM | message detail
you're right. he's getting 65%!
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zizzy
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 8:00:55 PM | message detail
I'd give Yoshi a much better chance of winning before Snake ever got anywhere close to a silly doubling!
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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 8:01:29 PM | message detail
But if he did get 60% on Yoshi, you'd be calling his ass over Samus. Which is what would make him still losing to Mega Man (addendum: by worse than ever before) so great!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 8:01:37 PM | message detail
Yoshi still has no shot at Snake.

Try and get this in your head. Ready? Ok.

I DON'T THINK YOSHI IS GOING TO BEAT SNAKE KTHX.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
trannyscience | Posted 10/27/2006 8:01:44 PM | message detail
Yoshi bombs against the top-tier characters! that's what happened in Mega Man!

believe.
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zizzy
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 8:02:15 PM | message detail
If Snake got 60% on Yoshi I'd be calling for a new king of SFF.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/27/2006 8:05:10 PM | message detail
THE KING OF SFF ISN'T EVEN IN THE MAIN BRACKET LIKE GAWD!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 8:15:24 PM | message detail
Snake is the rightful KING OF SFF because he SFFs characters that aren't part of his company or even his genre.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 8:15:57 PM | message detail
amen
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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/27/2006 8:16:28 PM | message detail
Snake is the rightful KING OF SFF because he SFFs characters that aren't part of his company or even his genre.

The real KING OF SFF has already done this!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
trannyscience | Posted 10/27/2006 8:16:31 PM | message detail
psh. Sephiroth!
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zizzy
Super Luigi | Posted 10/27/2006 8:17:49 PM | message detail
Actually, Snake has a far better chance hitting 60% on Yoshi than Yoshi does winning. kthxbye.
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Currently playing : Splinter Cell DA(Xbox 360), Dead Rising(Xbox 360), PGR3(Xbox 360).
XBL GT - SuPeR MiKe 86
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2006 8:24:23 PM | message detail
Time Division: Round 2 - Match 47 – (1)Crono vs. (4)Bowser

Moltar’s Analysis

Crono
Round 1 – 74.16% vs. Capt. Falcon (25.84%)

Crono does as expected on Falcon.

Bowser
Round 1 – 55.45% vs. Leon (44.55%)

Wow, Leon sure got stronger…or Bowser just been exposed.

Noble Nine Breaker #3, Bowser stepping up to duty! Well, he didn’t look like he was breaking anything last round, except a sweat against Leon. Now, I know he’s had RE4 for the PS2 since last year, but is he really over 30% on Base Link now? I mean, he came pretty close to Bowser, who is possibly the strongest non-Noble Nine character. However, Squall, Vincent, even Ganon looked better than this.

Crono is looking just fine. Many expected he’d get around the tripling on Falcon, so it seems he hasn’t lost a step since last year. This is really Bowser’s true test. Was his 50% on Snake legit? Is Leon really as strong as Bowser suggests he is? Will Goku make it back in time to defeat the evil Androids? Find out next time, on DRAGONBALL ZEEEEEEEE!

o wate

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Crono will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Crono: 56% - Bowser: 44%



Ulti’s Analysis

Bowser was such wasted potential this year. Imagine him in Yoshi's spot. As it stands now, he may be lucky to even break 45% on Crono.

Prediction: Crono with 58.34%



HM’s Analysis

Crono

Previous Matches:

Crono – 74.16% -- 84,090

Captain Falcon – 25.84% -- 20,306

Bowser

Previous Matches:

Bowser – 55.45% -- 66,925

Leon Kennedy – 44.55% -- 53,772

After Bowser’s disappointing last around, I can’t really stay on board the Bowser > Crono upset bandwagon that I was determined to see happen! The Koopa King is heading into this match with everyone wondering if he’s overrated and looking for answer’s regarding Yoshi’s and Luigi’s awesome performances here in the second round. That’s what makes the match pretty good – we get to see some percentages and some answers on Bowser and that Dream Division.

In defense of Bowser, if he was overrated last year, I think NSMB releasing should have helped him at least get close to his older level. Leon Kennedy had plenty of reason to boost himself, and I was a big supporter of Leon getting a boost this year pre-contest thanks to it releasing on the PS2. His performance wasn’t as disappointing as it may seem.

Crono wasn’t able to even triple Captain Falcon, but his match seemed to go about to expectations. He doesn’t look any stronger or weaker from last year, which is certainly a good thing for him considering the increased competition this year. This is one of the last opportunities for the Noble Nine to be broken this year, but it seems rather unlikely that it will happen.

All I hope for here is that Bowser puts up a very respectable performance. BOWSER FOR LIFE !!

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Crono

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Crono – 53.5% ; Bowser – 46.5%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Bowser!



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Oh Bowser. Bowser, Bowser, Bowser. I was arguing for you for the longest time, claiming that "Bowser over Crono is as good an upset pick as Ganondorf/Vincent over Sonic." Well, you sure have your work cut out for you after that first round stink-job. Think you can top Vincent's 48%? I really doubt it. I'm not even sure if you'll even break 45% at this point, but I'll give it to you as a matter of principle.

My prediction: Crono def. Bowser (55-45)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2006 8:24:45 PM | message detail
Lopen’s Analysis

Bowser failing to do so well against MISTAHHH… KENNNNEDY! last round (okay, I'll stop… after this… KENNEDY!) doesn't exactly fill me with hope that he'll upset Crono. Okay, I never really had any hope, and I just wanted to say MIS… *mumph*

Seriously, though. Crono gives Mario a run for his money every year (okay, last year not so much). But even with last year's decisive loss to Mario, he'd really have to be faltering a bit to be in danger of losing to Bowser. There's no reason expect such a spill, so instead, let's use this opportunity of Crono being in a match to its fullest!

*ahem*

"Bowser, even if given a chance, would not kidnap Marle."

Monster burn, I know.

Lopen's Prediction: Crono with 57.32%



KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

CRONO

"What ARE you two doing? I thought you said something about a nice little slide show?"

Summer 2002 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 7th Place [37.43%]

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 6th Place [38.14%]

Summer 2004 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 5th Place [37.18%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 6th Place [36.54%]

Crono certainly didn't show any weakness against Captain Falcon last round, and looks as solid as ever. And if Captain Falcon actually > Ness (like he bloody well should!), you could make the argument that he's the favorite to take the main bracket at this point. WOO CRONO

BOWSER

"Like the moon over
the day, my genius and brawn
are lost on these fools. ~ Haiku"


Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 17th Place [29.97%]

Summer 2004 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 18th Place [28.88%]

Spring 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 3rd Place [40.45%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 10th Place [33.49%]

Bowser on the other hand...struggles greatly with Leon Kennedy, and more or less puts any upset prospects he might have had against Crono to rest. The only deserving Mario character in the bracket is the only one that doesn't make the third round. *sigh* WOO BOWSER

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Crono: N/A
Bowser: New Super Mario Brothers (DS)

Upcoming Releases

Crono: N/A
Bowser: N/A

...yeah, Crono's got this one. The only thing to look for is the percentages, and whether people will interpret them as a Crono boost/drop, Bowser being overrated/legit, a combination of both, and so forth...

...I for one am expecting Crono to impress here. Maybe it's just me, but it was only two years ago that Mario got his ass kicked so hard that people thought he'd never win another match against Crono. Of course then he came back and did the same thing to Crono. Um, 53-54% isn't exactly an insurmountable margin people, but whatever.

Oh, yeah. Um, uh, Crono wins.

Karma Hunter's Vote: Bowser. Come on miracle!

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Crono with 57.45%.

Ryu is the only thing that gives me faith in Bowser doing well here, and I'm starting to believe either Bowser fluked that or this is all Mega Man's fault. I'm not ready to concede Leon as a near-elite and I'm hoping for a stronger Crono this year anyway...hence, this.

Upset Potential: 1%

Just because there's always a chance when these two are (presumably) so close.

Upset Prediction: Bowser with 50.15%
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 8:24:47 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2006 8:25:29 PM | message detail
Guest’s Analysis - Cavalier Lowen

The Noble Nine faces its next, and toughest (imo) test. Lets kick it up with some (lol) x-stats before I actually do some real analyzing.

Bowser 45.82

Crono 54.18

That’s 2005. Some say Bowser is overrated due to his match with Snake. Possibly, although Ryu (SF) certainly doesn’t look overrated to me after his match with Mega Man. Match is on a weekend, don’t know how much of an effect that’ll have, if it even has any at all, but it’s certainly another uncertainty factor with the higher votals.

Enough with the trips into the past already, let’s look at what’s going to happen right here, right now (if now=tomorrow)! Crono has beaten Mario in the past, and his game is one of the most popular games on this site. Why is there even a debate? After all, Bowser horribly underperformed against Leon Kennedy. Luigi is beating Kirby, Ryu almost lost to Kratos, it all falls into place, Bowser is overrated, the Dream Division Crono with over 56% right?

NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! This is clearly a different Leon than the one we saw in 2k5. His game more than doubled in sales and it was ported to a more widely owned console. As far as I’m concerned, Jill and Claire also overperformed on their competition, though their competition was all untested, so that doesn’t exactly corroborate Leon’s boost. However, if Kratos can boost as much as he has, why can’t Leon Kennedy? As for Luigi beating Kirby, look at who is doing it. Luigi, a Mario character. If he’s gotten enough of a boost to outperform Bowser on Kirby, what’s to say Bowser can’t have boosted, even past his “overrated” 2k5 value. Yoshi’s also done very well for himself, beating Dante and doing well on a KH2 steroid induced Riku. Basically, if Luigi and Yoshi are outperforming most people’s expectations by far, why wouldn’t Bowser? They have the same things boosting them this year, NSMB, DS popularity increase, and MKDS. SMB does not even come close to Final Fantasy if a BSE is held last year, I guarantee it. Maybe it’s not a site wide Nintendo boost like last year, but I do think there’s a Mario character boost this year.

As for Crono, well, by all logic he has to drop soon. I never even heard of him before these contests, and I like to think I’m fairly game savvy myself. Was the total reversal Mario pulled on him entirely based on a Mario increase, or did Crono drop, if only a little. Magus and Frog have been exposed quite well, despite looking like world-beaters after Magus/Link and Snake/Frog. Would anyone expect Frog to come anywhere close to Snake in this year or in 2k5 as he did in 2k4, Solid **** or not? That’s what I thought. Would this Crono drop continue into this year, who knows?

I really, REALLY want to pull the trigger on this upset, but I just can’t. I wouldn’t be shocked to see it happen though, I’d give it a 35% shot. 35% ain’t enough to put my blessing behind it though.

Crono with 50.5%



Crew Consensus: Crono wins, questions are answered, everybody is happy.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2006 8:32:02 PM | message detail
Match XLVII: (1) Crono vs. (4) Bowser

Previous Matches

Crono
Defeated Captain Falcon, 74.16% - 25.84%

Bowser
Defeated Leon Kennedy, 55.45% - 44.55%

Analysis:

Last round Crono performed just about what most of the board expected against Captain Falcon. Bowser on the other hand performed poorly against Leon. Even if you were to adjust Bowser down because of the Dream Division he should have still broken 60%, has Resident Evil 4 for PS2 boosted Leon by that much?

Before Bowser’s round one match there was some talk about him upsetting Crono, now most people didn’t think it would happen because Mario himself didn’t exactly beat him that hard, but now Bowser pretty much has no chance at winning this match, unless you believe that Leon is now near-elite. All this match will show is whether or not Crono has what it takes to be able to take the male bracket and maybe the contest itself.

There has been some talk on a Crono decrease since his last game was way back at the SNES. The only problem is Crono has already stood through the test of time, had the Character Battles started in 1996 then we would’ve watched as Crono went from an undisputed champion to what we saw him in 2002. Crono has already lost the fans that would abandon him before SC2k2 even started. The only way I can see Crono drop in strength is after a couple of years after a new Chrono Trigger release.

As long as Crono breaks 55% on Bowser tomorrow he should still be considered the favorite against any opponent on the male side of the bracket. Like I said before Bowser is overrated by the Dream Division and with the exception of the board vote should not give Crono any hard times.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Crono over Bowser

charmander6000’s Prediction: Crono wins, 56.72% - 43.28%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 8:33:21 PM | message detail
Man, it's odd to see how far people's expectations of Bowser have fallen. I was thinking 45% was his bare minimum, but outside of Ryu against Mega Man, Bowser hasn't looked to be as strong as 2005 implied.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
__hiei__ | Posted 10/27/2006 8:33:47 PM | message detail
As for Crono, well, by all logic he has to drop soon

uh...actually,by logic,crono shouldn't drop at all

CT was already dead and buried very deep when the very first contest started.CT can't possibly fall more when it's already at the bottom of the hole.so if crono was strong that year,he should at least keep that strenght on future contests (like he's been doing)
Big Bob | Posted 10/27/2006 8:41:48 PM | message detail
Big Bob's completely biased and nonsensical analysis

Alright, alright, Bowser didn't look so hot against Leon last round. But just take a look at the other Resident Evil characters! Claire nearly beat Kairi, who in turn put up excellent numbers against Rikku! Jill Valentine nearly doubled the most popular Tales of Symphonia girl, and Princess Peach barely beat her when a lot figured she would be fodder. Even today Luigi is impressing everyone by beating Kirby, who held Bowser under 54%. If Luigi can boost that much from New Super Mario Bros, why couldn't Bowser? NSMB has been a blessing for this contest, and Bowser's going to prove it tomorrow by beating Crono.

Speaking of Crono, what exactly has he done? He tripled Captain Falcon, but nobody would even know who Falcon is if he wasn't in Smash Bros. And that internet fad, which really shouldn't count for anyone's strength. Crono's getting old, and it's time for Bowser to prove it.

Bob's Prediction: Bowser with 60%
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
trannyscience | Posted 10/27/2006 8:46:18 PM | message detail
yeah, I'm feeling overperformance here. Crono is projected to get 56.12% on Ganondorf and that's what I'm expecting here - maybe a little bit more. but I wouldn't be amazed if Crono goes crazy and convinces us he's winning the male bracket thanks to Bowser dropping.

Luigi with... 39% of the brackets. man, if Zero was here we could have seen leaderboard destruction.
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zizzy
MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/27/2006 8:46:43 PM | message detail
Bowser wins because Peach, Yoshi, and Luigi made Round 3, so he needs to do so as well or the Mario cast will laugh at him and not let him in any reindeer games.

Four Mario characters pulling off tough and shocking victories to make Round 3 would be fantastic. I'm hoping Bowser can work a miracle, even the odds are greatly against him.
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Hispanics 1 | Whites 5
Asians 4 | Blacks 3
trannyscience | Posted 10/27/2006 8:47:42 PM | message detail
shocking? none of the victories could be called "shocking" - not many people on the board had Luigi, but he was always thought of as a possible round 3 participant here.

now Bowser, that would be shocking.
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zizzy
Haste_2 | Posted 10/27/2006 8:48:29 PM | message detail
RandInt (25,60) = 48% Luigi support.

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Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 8:50:03 PM | message detail
Luigi is usually a big fave of the casuals, so I'll say...51%.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
triviaman | Posted 10/27/2006 8:50:15 PM | message detail
Crono won't drop in popularity until Japanese Anime (specifically Dragonball Z) stops being popular in America!!!

side thought - does anyone else think that Blue Dragon might actually boost Crono's strength if it's a hit; seeing how the main character does look a lot like Crono? i think it's quite possible!

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This is cyko posting from a friend's house!!!
>_>
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/27/2006 8:50:50 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure the victories could be called shocking, at least all three of them together. Peach came back from a 1400 vote deficit, Yoshi won a match that people only took because it felt right, and Luigi beat the crap out of someone who was ranked much higher in the stats than him.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
triviaman | Posted 10/27/2006 8:50:51 PM | message detail
Luigi with 42% of the brackets!

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This is cyko posting from a friend's house!!!
>_>
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2006 8:52:23 PM | message detail
Unless the main character is called Crono or Chrono or Crhono I don't think it would give him any more of a boost than what the CT ROMS are giving him.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
BDawg | Posted 10/27/2006 8:53:07 PM | message detail
I think one thing is certain the way things have gone this year Bowser will never look better than he does in the first hour.
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Should I start running now?
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2006 8:54:46 PM | message detail
The updater script is updating twice! Double the pleasure double the fun.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/27/2006 8:56:23 PM | message detail
I think one thing is certain the way things have gone this year Bowser will never look better than he does in the first hour.

Which is why I think Bowser would go 50/50 with Crono like he did with Sephiroth.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 8:58:05 PM | message detail
Crono's night vote is awesome though, and he'll definitely have the brackets in his favor. It'll be interesting to see what the Nintendo first hour vote does in a practically guaranteed loss.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/27/2006 8:58:36 PM | message detail
Crono's night vote is awesome though, and he'll definitely have the brackets in his favor. It'll be interesting to see what the Nintendo first hour vote does in a practically guaranteed loss.

See for reference: Final Fantasy/Super Mario Bros.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
gonf | Posted 10/27/2006 8:59:11 PM | message detail
Is it me or the vote totals seem low?
Only 106000 votes.
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Most wanted game: LoZ: TP
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 8:59:23 PM | message detail
Eh...I don't see Bowser doing quite THAT well...
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/27/2006 9:00:18 PM | message detail
Crono 60%

3
Bowser 40%

2
TOTAL VOTES 5

Woah, best evar!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Crono vs. Bowser- Bracket: Crono - Vote: Bowser (52/60)
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/27/2006 9:00:25 PM | message detail
Crono 33.33%

3
Bowser 66.67%

6
TOTAL VOTES 9


The Noble Nine has been broken
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Luigi with 53.63%
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/27/2006 9:00:25 PM | message detail
Bowser should rock that first hour as that timeframe isn't really similar to the night vote at all.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
ShadowOwns | Posted 10/27/2006 9:00:27 PM | message detail
Crono 27.27% 3
Bowser 72.73% 8
TOTAL VOTES 11

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Great game. Lovin Oil Country.
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/27/2006 9:00:33 PM | message detail
Crono 42.86%

42
Bowser 57.14%

56
TOTAL VOTES 98

Huzzah!
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Currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Black Wings of Destiny, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/27/2006 9:00:38 PM | message detail
Crono 28.57% 6
Bowser 71.43% 15
TOTAL VOTES 21

Go Bowser!
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn