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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 408

Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/27/2006 4:00:36 PM | message detail
Eh, Luigi is always a huge vote drawer too. Stupid dum pink ball.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/27/2006 4:03:45 PM | message detail
Luigi's percentage by the hour!

19:00 | 49.90%
18:00 | 52.26%
17:00 | 50.81%
16:00 | 52.09%
15:00 | 51.82%
14:00 | 54.04%
13:00 | 55.21%
12:00 | 54.21%
11:00 | 54.65%
10:00 | 53.84%
09:00 | 55.69%
08:00 | 52.69%
07:00 | 53.70%
06:00 | 53.36%
05:00 | 52.45%
04:00 | 53.89%
03:00 | 53.16%
02:00 | 51.94%
01:00 | 51.09%

Strange, Kirby finally won an hour. By a grand total of eleven votes, but still.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 4:10:09 PM | message detail
Oh, and assuming this match finishes with 52.5% of the vote for Luigi, and Sonic beats Luigi with 58%, where does PoP end up on BL?

PoP ends up at 23.53 on BL, dead even with unadjusted Sora. In other words, he'd beat Frog but lose to Vivi.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/27/2006 4:17:59 PM | message detail
Kirby just needs to bring this below 52.5% and I'm a happy man!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
DpObliVion | Posted 10/27/2006 4:36:34 PM | message detail
Predict where I am on the leaderboard after this match! I'll predict #12, as my previous record is #13.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
Terran | Posted 10/27/2006 5:31:44 PM | message detail
I'm in no way suggesting that this is evidence that Luigi could beat Sonic. But just as an interesting side note for the coming match:

When Sonic beat Zero in 2003 he got 52.34% of the vote, Luigi got 53.71% this year.

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 5:37:02 PM | message detail
There's not a lot of things that can be said to redeem Sonic 2k3, even if Zero didn't drop. You can't even really argue that he's underrated that much, unlike Snake 2k4.

Speaking of which, there's usually a Noble Niner that has looks downright horrible each year.

2002 - Cloud
2003 - Sonic
2004 - Snake
2005 - Samus

Who will it be this year, do you think...?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/27/2006 5:38:05 PM | message detail
Last year, Samus looked fantastic against Frog, and same with Ganondorf if you assume there wasn't SFF there.

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Draco1214 | Posted 10/27/2006 5:38:14 PM | message detail
Heh, all signs are pointing to it being Mega Man, but that'd require some pretty serious bombing against Snake.
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Currently Playing: Okami, King of Fighters 2002/2003, Gradius V
Haste_2 | Posted 10/27/2006 5:39:01 PM | message detail
But, okay, Samus was the weak link in 2K5, yeah, if you had to pick one, since she didn't boost like Mario did.

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nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/27/2006 5:39:15 PM | message detail
DP - #19

And Mega Man. Definitely Mega Man.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 5:39:27 PM | message detail
Last year, Samus looked fantastic against Frog, and same with Ganondorf if you assume there wasn't SFF there.

And Cloud looked absolutely amazing against Fox, Pikachu, and Alucard in 2002. I'm talking about in the stats.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/27/2006 5:40:17 PM | message detail
Who will it be this year, do you think...?

Mega Man.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2006 5:59:12 PM | message detail
Terrible votals, bleh >_>
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
trannyscience | Posted 10/27/2006 6:00:44 PM | message detail
heh, Bowser and Luigi are practically tied in percentage here.
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zizzy
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/27/2006 6:01:29 PM | message detail
But Luigi is still ahead!
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
trannyscience | Posted 10/27/2006 6:01:59 PM | message detail
too bad Luigi has no second night vote!
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zizzy
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/27/2006 6:02:23 PM | message detail
Luigi just needs to drop by .01% more so that I can snatch my awesome Crew point !!

And Luigi's goal here is probably to stay above Bowser's percentage of 52.12%! =p

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/27/2006 6:02:26 PM | message detail
Too bad Kirby doesn't either! Or at least, I didn't think he did...
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
trannyscience | Posted 10/27/2006 6:03:59 PM | message detail
hmm, you're right. Bowser is so screwed
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zizzy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2006 6:04:48 PM | message detail
Luigi's percent against Zero in the last 2 or 3 hours of that match were unbelievably low compared to the rest. I think Luigi just sucks at the end.

Kirby only really has enough time to bring him down to about 53.3 or so though.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2006 6:05:50 PM | message detail
er, 52.3

Geez, 53.3. That would be the crappiest % reduction ever.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 6:12:04 PM | message detail
Kirby could get it down to 52% actually... if he maintains his pace.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2006 6:13:01 PM | message detail
This pace? You mean letting Luigi get another 50 votes in 10 minutes?
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
dethfdddddh | Posted 10/27/2006 6:15:39 PM | message detail
This fourpack might end up being the most embarrassing case of B8 being completely owned by casual bracketmakers in contest history, heh.
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 6:19:07 PM | message detail
This pace? You mean letting Luigi get another 50 votes in 10 minutes?

How about the last hour smart guy.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 6:20:56 PM | message detail
This fourpack might end up being the most embarrassing case of B8 being completely owned by casual bracketmakers in contest history, heh.

Try Mario/Samus.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/27/2006 6:21:48 PM | message detail
Dammit, Kirby, stop sucking it up and get this to 52.5% already.

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/27/2006 6:22:01 PM | message detail
And I got both, cause I'm hooked on the brothers!

*does the Mario*
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/27/2006 6:25:40 PM | message detail
Try Mario/Samus.

I dont know about this...

I know Red had Mario, I had Mario... and I am sure there were many others. I dont think there was as much conviction for that match as this four-pack.

KB
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I admit, Kyle Bowen's Social Bar and Lounge was the worst series of topics ever. Also, I hate Shadow Hearts.-10/21-10/28
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/27/2006 6:27:31 PM | message detail
I was one of the few Mario pickers as well !!


And huzzah for Kirby finally doing it!

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"Let's face it: the princess Zelda has always been a symbol of sexual desire."
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 6:40:16 PM | message detail
Also, I'll wait just a little longer before passing judgement on Mega Man...I mean, he's been so solid for four years running now, and him just dropping off randomly makes so little sense to me. It's akin to the people who are always calling for Crono to lose a step and he never does...seeing MM drop just feels wrong.

How much would Sora need to get on Mega Man for people to call for his head? (and I don't just mean against Snake, I mean against prospective Noble Nine breakers)
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 6:41:42 PM | message detail
There's no set limit really... I could see Sora getting as high as 46% after seeing Riku in action, not expecting it, but I'd much rather attribute it to Sora boosting than MM dropping.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 6:44:12 PM | message detail
That's not what I asked.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2006 6:45:25 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2006 6:45:54 PM | message detail
How about the last hour smart guy.

Oh, you mean a stagnating lead at about 4850? Heh, I know, that's what my 52.3% value is based off of. At the current pace of ending with about 107,000 votes and a 4850 vote lead, the final value will be just over 52.26%. I just rounded to 52.3
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 6:46:14 PM | message detail
Okay fine... 46%+

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 6:47:05 PM | message detail
Actually I was talking about the % he was cutting per update.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2006 6:47:21 PM | message detail
Of course, if Kirby does better later, it could be better. But that would hardly be considered "at this pace" now would it?
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2006 6:48:40 PM | message detail
Oh. Well, you know that you can't mathematically calculate final % correctly just by taking the change in each update, because it's not going to decrease at the same rate the closer it gets to 50% right? Just checking.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 6:50:40 PM | message detail
Well if you consider that Luigi has only shown to dropoff in the last part of the matches worse and worse, despite the lowering votals, if you compensate for that it works itself out.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/27/2006 6:52:44 PM | message detail
Well, just saying. To end at 52% Kirby would have to cut the lead down to nearly 4300. I definitely don't see that happening
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 6:56:21 PM | message detail
Fair enough.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
BeTheMan | Posted 10/27/2006 7:07:55 PM | message detail
How much would Sora need to get on Mega Man for people to call for his head? (and I don't just mean against Snake, I mean against prospective Noble Nine breakers)

If Mega Man can hit 59% on Sora, Gordon will project out to just under 30% on MM (which is where he was last year) and Tingle will project out to exactly 20% on MM. So I'll say he's in a world of trouble against Snake if Sora holds him to 57% or less, and he's in danger against non-NN types if Sora holds him to 55.5% or less.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO Z1mZum FOR ROCKING THE GURU WORLD
trannyscience | Posted 10/27/2006 7:15:25 PM | message detail
I think of Yoshi and Sora as being about equal... maybe a slight edge to Yoshi. if Snake gets a higher percentage next round, I'll jump on the Snake bandwagon.
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zizzy
trannyscience | Posted 10/27/2006 7:45:51 PM | message detail
as for tonight's match, I think this is gonna clear up a lot of confusion - where Crono's at or where Bowser's at, what's up with Leon, Dream Division, sprites, etc etc. I can't think of a single thing that's made Bowser look good this year, but between his performance against Leon and Luigi outperforming him on Kirby you have to be worried about him bombing here. you can reason that Leon got a boost and that Kirby just fluked a good percentage, but when Luigi and Yoshi look so good you've got to think Bowser would get at least some of that as well. anyway, I'm really interested to see how the percentages come out, especially since we'll finally have a good read on Ganondorf vs. Bowser, not to mention Vincent.

if Bowser gets over 45%, I'll be pretty impressed.. I could see Crono pushing 60% and it wouldn't surprise me all that much.
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zizzy
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 7:49:28 PM | message detail
Amen... as much as this match is a lock, it's gonna be awesome in determining so much stuff, like if Kirby overrated Dream, or if Bowser overrated it, how badly he's overrated, and if Yoshi has any sort of a shot at Snake.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 7:50:58 PM | message detail
and if Yoshi has any sort of a shot at Snake.

Bowser getting 57%+ tomorrow has a better shot at happening !!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/27/2006 7:52:16 PM | message detail
I doubt it!

If Crono gets 58%+, coupled with Luigi and Yoshi's performances so far, I'm giving him an outside shot at Bowser. If Crono hits 60%... oh lawd watch out.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
trannyscience | Posted 10/27/2006 7:53:03 PM | message detail
Yoshi has zero shot at Snake unless you think he's indirectly stronger than Bowser (lol direct match where Yoshi has "favourite" status), and that's assuming we're dealing with the same Snake as last year. if anything, I expect Snake to beat his ass down hard.
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zizzy