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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 408

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transience | Posted 10/26/2006 9:38:04 PM | message detail
Luigi up 5 votes, THIS MATCH IS OVER

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games (down for now, so here's a new link):
http://transience.paragonsigma.com/top100.txt

post away
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2006 9:39:10 PM | message detail
IF LUIGI WINS I'LL FEED MYSELF TO AN MGS DISC
---
*kills self
Commit it to memory.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/26/2006 9:39:45 PM | message detail
IF KIRBY WINS I'LL HAVE 2 MORE POINTS THAN I DO TODAY
---
CB5 Points: 53/56, Current Oracle placement: 20/165
Now playing: Okami
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/26/2006 9:39:58 PM | message detail
Why did you take the auto-updater out? It'll eventually have a need again.. maybe.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/26/2006 9:41:01 PM | message detail
THIS MATCH IS OVER

Indeed.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 9:41:58 PM | message detail
to prevent abuse. you can put it back in next topic if you want, but if trolls are gonna click it on 100 times in the first five minutes it's more harm than help.

feel free to put it back in next topic if you like. if cn can somehow disable it for the first five minutes, then that's even better.
---
xyzzy
Redtooth | Posted 10/26/2006 9:43:21 PM | message detail
Yea, I guess I hadn't made myself clear before. That's what I was asking about a couple topics ago when you were putting it in. And I'm sure there are enough people who know it by now to keep it running smoothly.

---
Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/26/2006 9:43:40 PM | message detail
From transience Posted 10/27/2006 12:41:58 AM #006
to prevent abuse. you can put it back in next topic if you want, but if trolls are gonna click it on 100 times in the first five minutes it's more harm than help.

feel free to put it back in next topic if you like. if cn can somehow disable it for the first five minutes, then that's even better.


I don't really see the harm in abuse (and don't look at me, I haven't been doing it) for 5 minutes, personally. It's not like it creates an overall Jill/Ryu H effect where the table gets so big that it'll crash any browser that opens the page. And honestly, who cares about the first 5 minutes? Everyone knows the early trend because they madly refresh the poll anyway.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
KingBartz | Posted 10/26/2006 9:44:47 PM | message detail
Who(besides red13n and I) actually has Luigi escaping his 4-pack?
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 50/56 Today's pick: Sonic the Hedgehog
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 9:47:40 PM | message detail
the updates there are just meaningless and annoying to look at, personally. there's what, 50 updates in the first five minutes there? that's like four hours of a regular match. no need to flood the updater with crap like that.

whoever's doing it is probably laughing their ass off, too. :)

---
xyzzy
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 9:47:52 PM | message detail
and I have Zero. goodbye, leaderboard!
---
xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 12:45:35 AM | message detail
Kirby is who we thought he was!
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 12:47:07 AM | message detail
I never even got to see the leaderboard!

Oh, well...this was never my make-or-break point. Now, next round...whoo boy I don't believe in the picture factor making a huge difference, but Zelda/Aeris would be a great time to start for me!
---
*kills self
Commit it to memory.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/27/2006 12:49:35 AM | message detail
Who(besides red13n and I) actually has Luigi escaping his 4-pack?

I have Luigi winning, of course.
---
Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 12:50:08 AM | message detail
My leaderboard glory came way back in 2005, 4 accounts on the leaderboard after the first match, and #1 overall for 5 matches with my favorites bracket (Squall as winner). Losing it on Ganon/Yuna was worth it, I say!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
transience | Posted 10/27/2006 12:51:33 AM | message detail
I had #1 until FE/SH in the series contest. I think that was.. five matches? six?
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 12:52:43 AM | message detail
I know I've been on the leaderboard a few times (the first probably came after Cloud > Link in 2003), but the only one I can remember was in 2005...and I lost it on my Kratos > Alucard pick.

But y'know, it wouldn't be a contest without me never taking Alucard or his game to win a match...EVER. In fact, the only Castlevania character I ever took to win a match was Simon Belmont (aka Crono fodder)...and I took him to the Sweet Sixteen, too.
---
*kills self
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/27/2006 12:53:56 AM | message detail
you took Kratos? ballsy, I didn't see a single person on the board take that pick. and it turned out closer than we expected!
---
xyzzy
Haste_2 | Posted 10/27/2006 12:55:13 AM | message detail
tranny: what would you expect Luigi to get on Tidus? just 1% higher than Kirby got?

Don't forget that Tidus isn't all that bad. He got 49% on Ganondorf at one point, and even if he's not quite as good now, he's still not that bad...you can't just randomly assume he's almost fodder now or something.

As for Luigi = Bowser this year...I'm almost tempted to say that could be the case. I could definitely see Zero and Leon Kennedy being comparable, and it looks like Luigi won't do much worse than Bowser did on Kirby. Luigi could have left Bowser in the dust over the past couple of years in terms of boosting. I won't comment on Yoshi.

---
Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
Super Luigi | Posted 10/27/2006 12:56:45 AM | message detail
So this match is pretty much over right?
---
Currently playing : Splinter Cell DA(Xbox 360), Dead Rising(Xbox 360), PGR3(Xbox 360).
XBL GT - SuPeR MiKe 86
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 12:57:43 AM | message detail
Kirby is totally making a wicked comeback with the day vote!

*watches Luigi pass 52%*

yeah yeah it's over
---
*kills self
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/27/2006 12:59:08 AM | message detail
I don't think that, Haste.. I'm just saying that I don't think Kirby is worth 48% on Bowser and it's better to gauge him off of Tidus. we don't have a good read on him, but I'd expect Luigi to beat him worse than Kirby.
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xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 1:00:51 AM | message detail
I won't call this one over just yet. I'll wait for the morning vote before I decide that. I expect it to go to Luigi, but stranger things have happened.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
Haste_2 | Posted 10/27/2006 1:01:20 AM | message detail
Well, if you think Luigi is being rSFFed by Kirby, that would make sense, yes. More evidence that Luigi = Bowser!

---
Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 1:01:32 AM | message detail
Although heh, if Luigi actually has an edge during the day he could very realistically match or surpass Bowser's percentage on Kirby.

Though I'll take it as the same thing as Bowser doing better on Ryu than Mega Man...meaningless. 'CAUSE LUIGI'S NOT BEATING BOWSER
---
*kills self
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/27/2006 1:02:06 AM | message detail
oh, and I'm taking this match as proof that Bowser is a leech!

what now Ganon haters
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xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 1:02:21 AM | message detail
'CAUSE LUIGI'S NOT BEATING BOWSER

We'll see if you change your tune after those final stats speak differently!
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 1:02:32 AM | message detail
Kirby > Ganondorf is such a sexy upset pick.
---
*kills self
Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 1:02:55 AM | message detail
You know what's even sexier? Luigi > Ganondorf!
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
zwong1 | Posted 10/27/2006 1:03:06 AM | message detail
I am hoping that Bowser can at least break 45% on crono.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 1:03:37 AM | message detail
I'll be highly disappointed in Bowser if he doesn't break 45% against Crono.
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 1:04:58 AM | message detail
I'm not really feeling a great Bowser performance against Crono after what I saw out of him against Leon...though it really has little to do with Snake. I think he might've just dropped.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 1:05:33 AM | message detail
Oh, and Crono might have boosted as well. It makes Crono > Samus and Falcon > Ness easier to rationalize!
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 1:05:47 AM | message detail
Looks like you didn't finish your sentence. You have a feeling he dropped below Luigi, am I right?
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
zwong1 | Posted 10/27/2006 1:07:37 AM | message detail
Crono boosted. It will be a long time before i believe he can boost. Just as long as he did not decline, Crono fans will be happy.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 1:07:42 AM | message detail
I'm calling it right now Sonic gets 65% on Luigi and loses to Crono with 45%- LUIGI IS SO NOT BEATING BOWSER DAMMIT
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/27/2006 1:08:15 AM | message detail
Bowser dropping is possible, but it just seems so weird... why would he drop when all the other Mario characters have looked so good? it does help to minimize Leon's boost, but.. eh, whatever.

I can't wait to see Ganon vs. Bowser with legit values this year. this whole contest will be a little too neat when the stats come out, actually.
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xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 1:08:15 AM | message detail
45%?! Vincent 2005 > Vincent 2006?! Blasphemy!
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 1:09:01 AM | message detail
this whole contest will be a little too neat when the stats come out, actually.

Yes, but the mystery of where Princess Daisy actually stands in the stats will have me riveted to my seat until SC2K7!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
transience | Posted 10/27/2006 1:09:35 AM | message detail
....shut up!

HI I'M LEON
HI I'M LEON
HI I'M LEON
HI I'M LEON
HI I'M LEON

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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 1:09:55 AM | message detail
can't wait to see Ganon vs. Bowser with legit values this year. this whole contest will be a little too neat when the stats come out, actually.

Except we'll have a hell of a time just figuring out what to base them on...not to mention the upper half of the Noble Nine will be a total question mark.

45%?! Vincent 2005 > Vincent 2006?! Blasphemy!

Ha, everyone knows DoC = massive drop!
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/27/2006 1:11:12 AM | message detail
it won't matter what we base them on if they're from the same year.. and since things are so clear-cut there's almost no need to base them on previous years except for missing characters like Knuckles. either way, I like Sonic as a base from what we've seen so far, though Crono again is still a possibility.
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xyzzy
zwong1 | Posted 10/27/2006 1:11:16 AM | message detail
DoC = massive drop!. LOL to the highest point.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/27/2006 1:11:22 AM | message detail
IT'S OVER!
IT'S OVER!
IT'S OVER!
IT'S OVER!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
almightyblue | Posted 10/27/2006 1:15:47 AM | message detail
It's really not that hard to believe that Leon boosted so much considering his popularity comes from one game (because with only RE2, he's worse off than Claire), and that game more than doubled its sales since the last contest.

I wouldn't be surprised if Leon was on Dante's level.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/27/2006 1:16:20 AM | message detail
Kirby > Ganondorf is such a sexy upset pick.
You know what's even sexier? Luigi > Ganondorf!


Both of you pain me.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 1:17:33 AM | message detail
Aeris > Zelda is the sexiest pick, of course.

In more ways than one! aw yeah sprite Zelda get captured for me baby
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/27/2006 1:17:37 AM | message detail
Kirby did outperform Ganon on Tidus by a good 6%!

and Luigi.. well, Tifa = Vincent and Vincent 2k6 > Vincent 2k5!
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xyzzy
zwong1 | Posted 10/27/2006 1:19:53 AM | message detail
According to last year x stats, Bowser was supposed to break 45.8% on Crono. If tomorrow, Bowser does managed to break 47% on Crono, i think Sonic has what it takes to beat Crono.

Of course, x-stats are unreliable sometimes.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/27/2006 1:20:52 AM | message detail
Cons of Kirby > Ganon:
Heavy statistical underdog
Zelda > Kirby on Nintendo pecking order
Twilight Princess out by next contest

Pros:

lol GANON IS A LEECH
lol GANON IS A LEECH
lol GANON IS A LEECH
lol GANON IS A LEECH
lol GANON IS A LEECH
lol GANON IS A LEECH
lol GANON IS A LEECH
lol GANON IS A LEECH

---
*kills self
Commit it to memory.