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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 407

transience | Posted 10/26/2006 10:17:00 PM | message detail
(but this match isn't over yet either!)
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xyzzy
creativename | Posted 10/26/2006 10:17:21 PM | message detail
Thanks for the offer Kaxon, but it's not necessary :)

I'll see if the problem continues the next couple matches and if so, I guess I'll have to mess with things.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 10:20:43 PM | message detail
Now Kirby stays constant and Luigi drops off.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
KingBartz | Posted 10/26/2006 10:22:02 PM | message detail
Ouch.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 52/58 Today's pick: Luigi
MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/26/2006 10:23:00 PM | message detail
Just as I return, Luigi's lead drops.

So if I go away, Luigi may start coming back.

I know my mission. Off to play Contact, later.
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Hispanics 1 | Whites 5
Asians 4 | Blacks 3
DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2006 10:25:44 PM | message detail
Luigi's back on track.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/26/2006 10:25:53 PM | message detail
I would agree that Luigi has a better chance on Sonic than Yoshi does on Snake.

Oh yeah? Well, you're wrong! How bout that? hah.

But seriously, by dint of beating Luigi, and very arguably still being stronger than him, and by Snake < Sonic (probably), I'd say Yoshi as as much chance as Luigi does.

Then again, since there is that (not going to happen but we can still mention it) chance he gets the Mario proxy thing, I suppose we can say Luigi has a better chance, even though Yoshi will, once again, rank higher than Luigi in the stats!
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 10:26:30 PM | message detail
...Kirby, stop doing that!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2006 10:26:40 PM | message detail
Hmm.....good job, MegaR!

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 10:27:26 PM | message detail
Yoshi's popularity still baffles me. At least being more popular than Luigi anyway.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/26/2006 10:27:55 PM | message detail
This will probably be mostly back and forth during the night, slightly favouring Luigi, by virtue of both characters sucking (in Kirby's case literally lol) with the night vote. Then Luigi will whip Kirby with the morning. After school is anybody's guess, but Luigi will hopefully build up a big enough lead such that it doesn't matter.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 10:33:07 PM | message detail
I'm in wait and see mode with that last Kirby update win. If he can win two in a row, I'll start thinking he can come back to take the lead before morning.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 10:35:45 PM | message detail
*sighs, shakes head, and goes back to watching Pirates of the Caribbean*
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 10:35:58 PM | message detail
back and forth, it seems, with Luigi getting the bigger update wins. and if trends hold up, it's Luigi's match to lose.

but this sure isn't over yet.
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xyzzy
Kaxon | Posted 10/26/2006 10:36:12 PM | message detail
This match is so frustrating to watch... Kirby keeps looking like he's going to fight back, and then he collapses the next update.
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....TCELES B HSUP
DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2006 10:37:46 PM | message detail
Beautiful update for Luigi. I'm expecting the match to go somewhat the same the rest of the way, so I can feel somewhat confident in declaring Luigi the winner, and I can't wait to see what the leaderboard looks like after this match. Especially since I'll still be on it.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/26/2006 10:38:37 PM | message detail
15 Minute Updates!

01:30 | Kirby | 6025 | +729 | 50.28% | Luigi | 6332 | +721 | 49.72% | 12357 | Lead of 307 | (Down 8)
01:15 | Kirby | 5296 | +752 | 46.59% | Luigi | 5611 | +862 | 53.41% | 10907 | Lead of 315 | (Up 110)
01:00 | Kirby | 4544 | +902 | 48.97% | Luigi | 4749 | +940 | 51.03% | 9293 | Lead of 205 | (Up 38)
00:45 | Kirby | 3642 | +911 | 46.67% | Luigi | 3809 | +1041 | 53.33% | 7451 | Lead of 167 | (Up 130)
00:30 | Kirby | 2731 | +1192 | 50.85% | Luigi | 2768 | +1152 | 49.15% | 5499 | Lead of 37 | (Down 40)
00:15 | Kirby | 1539 | +1460 | 48.81% | Luigi | 1616 | +1531 | 51.19% | 3155 | Lead of 77 | (Up 71)
00:00 | Kirby | 79 | +79 | 48.17% | Luigi | 85 | +85 | 51.83% | 164 | Lead of 6 | (Up 6)

The Nintendo Hour(ish - more like 1.5-2 hours, really) definitely favoured Luigi, which is a very good sign.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Haste_2 | Posted 10/26/2006 10:57:10 PM | message detail
Bowser made it as high as 54.69% on Kirby before falling all the way down to 52.12% at the end. I'm not saying Luigi will be the same way, but... possibly.

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 11:02:03 PM | message detail
After two hours, Luigi has 51.42% of the vote and a 425 vote lead.

After two hours, Bowser had 53.69% of the vote and a 365 vote lead.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
Haste_2 | Posted 10/26/2006 11:21:36 PM | message detail
I can't wait until tomorrow's match. We'll finally probably have a good idea on how over-rated Bowser and friends was last year.

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DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2006 11:21:43 PM | message detail
500 BARRIER and all that special stuff y'all say.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/26/2006 11:28:56 PM | message detail
Bowser wasn't overrated at all! Luigi > Sonic and all that!

Really, though I'm hoping Bowser does well because it'll make Luigi and Leon look very good. And why does Crono always have to go against my favourites? I like the guy, but after matches with Mario, Bowser, Mega Man, Kefka, Magus, etc, I feel like I never actually vote for him.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
HaRRicH | Posted 10/26/2006 11:30:01 PM | message detail
While Haste's and Leon's number-comparisons make me feel like Kirby's still got an excellent shot, that poll-change will still put a damper in how strong Kirby is for the rest of the day (not to mention PoP tore ass with it against Kirby)...so, I don't know yet.

Both are still more than capable of winning, but Luigi's got the edge right now.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 11:31:05 PM | message detail
Kirby's doing a better job of stalling right now, but I can't help but feeling Luigi's gonna own him come sunrise.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
janembaman | Posted 10/26/2006 11:31:44 PM | message detail
go luigi beat that pink dum ball
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laff
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/26/2006 11:35:10 PM | message detail
Luigi should have a lead of 800-1200 by the time the morning hits...and he should be able to double it during that, his absolute best, time. The character that takes the night generally wins the sort of "during school" vote, too, so Luigi is looking at ten and a half straight hours to increase his lead before Kirby even has a shot to retaliate. Given the Nintendo hour favoured Luigi it's not impossible for him to take the after school vote, either, though I'd guess Kirby gets based on the usual "he who wins the night loses the day" mantra. Still, by that time it might not even matter.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/26/2006 11:39:01 PM | message detail
And Luigi is actually doing better now, percentage wise, then he was earlier, though vote totals have dropped off so he's not actually gaining as much. Interestingly, his last three 15 minute updates have been wins of 55, 57, and 55, so at least he's consistent.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/26/2006 11:41:40 PM | message detail
Whoa. I hadn't checked the poll in a while, but it seems like Luigi is doing a really good job right now (lead of 558). Kirby has tried to slow him down, but he hasn't lost an update in some time. He just needs to keep that up!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 11:42:21 PM | message detail
I've just got one question: Where has this Luigi been for the last four years?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
janembaman | Posted 10/26/2006 11:43:21 PM | message detail
I has Zero winning so I really don't care who wins today
But I want to see Luigi/Sonic
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laff
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/26/2006 11:44:36 PM | message detail
Hiding, so as to surprise us by becoming the Noble Nine breaker !!
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/26/2006 11:45:36 PM | message detail
Indeed. It seems that Nintendo Boost in 2005 did a lot of good for him.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Incompetence | Posted 10/26/2006 11:46:53 PM | message detail
Wow, if this match is an indication of anything, it's that Bowser will be lucky to break 45% on Crono.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/26/2006 11:47:46 PM | message detail
Heh, another 15 minute update with a win of exactly 55 votes. That's three of the last four, all while incoming votals steadily decrease.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
janembaman | Posted 10/26/2006 11:48:06 PM | message detail
Luigi=Bowser lololololol
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laff
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 11:48:25 PM | message detail
And he seems to have boosted yet again.

So what's the consensus if Luigi holds on to win? Kirby overperformed in 2005? Kirby dropped? Luigi = Bowser = Yoshi indirectly (which personally makes very little sense in my eyes, all things considered)?

Seriously, as much as I love seeing Luigi win and FINALLY make the Sweet Sixteen, this match causes more questions than answers if he does win.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/26/2006 11:50:05 PM | message detail
I'm not sure we can draw too much from this match. I think we'll have a better idea after tomorrow and then be crystal clear when Sonic goes up against Luigi. As it is now, I'm not going to try to make much of this.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/26/2006 11:51:00 PM | message detail
Ya know, I hear people saying how much the Nintendo boost did for Luigi, and it did do quite a bit, but he was also underrated in the two years previous to it. It's not all the boost, it's also in part due to the fact that we never had a good read on him from the start.
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janembaman | Posted 10/26/2006 11:52:49 PM | message detail
66% on KOS MOS is the only impressive thing he done...
And 47% on Tifa,if it's impressive...
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laff
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 11:53:26 PM | message detail
I've got no idea what to make of pre-2k5 Luigi. just pretend it never happened, I guess. no way does Squall still beat him with 60%.

I'd say that Luigi = Yoshi and that he's at Dante's level.. and that probably projects a 55-45 match with Sonic, which seems reasonable.
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xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 11:53:29 PM | message detail
The match against Zero last round was certainly impressive, and beating Kirby will also be impressive.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/26/2006 11:54:28 PM | message detail
I can hardly speak for a "consensus" on Luigi, but there's been a definite trend since 2004 towards the Mario series above all else. I think that's just that trend continuing, and Luigi, being as low as he was on the totem pole, had the biggest opportunity for advancement. I wouldn't hesitate to pick him over Yoshi even after Yoshi's impressive victory over Dante, and it doesn't look like he's all too far from Bowser either.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 11:54:42 PM | message detail
If Luigi is at Dante's level based on Hayabusa, Sonic wins with 55.69%.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
Gaddswell | Posted 10/26/2006 11:55:09 PM | message detail
So Luigi = Star of Round 2?
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2006 11:55:15 PM | message detail
And...back. ;_; Kirby.

I really don't see Luigi winning the afterschool vote. He lost it to Tifa, KOS-MOS, Zero...I don't see Kirby doing the same against said characters. Sure you can point to Kirby's match against PoP, but he was going up against a character I'd expect to be a Kratos during the day.

Still, I don't see Kirby winning at this rate. I suppose my flaw was not realizing that Yoshi and Luigi were probably equal indirectly this year, and recognizing that Dante and Kirby must always be projected to have a very close match...hence, Luigi winning with about as much as Yoshi beat Dante should have been expected. =(

Incidentally, if Luigi is constant from 2k5 and finishes with 51%, Kirby maintaining his proportion with Bowser means that the Koopa King was overrated by about 3.8% or so, putting him at Dante 2k5's level. That's before any Kirby rSFF on Bowser or Luigi boosting from his 2k5 level, etc.

Going by that, we should expect about 59% for Crono tomorrow.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
janembaman | Posted 10/26/2006 11:55:26 PM | message detail
The match against Zero last round was certainly impressive, and beating Kirby will also be impressive.
I talked about last years...
This year he IS impressive...
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laff
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 11:56:20 PM | message detail
Luigi, win it twice in a row? I dunno, Yoshi's performance in beating Dante is up there, as is Zelda's against Terra. Don't count out what Snake did to Squall either.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/26/2006 11:59:57 PM | message detail
So Luigi = Star of Round 2?

Yoshi beating Dante and Zelda decimating Terra are both up there, I think. Tough to say.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/27/2006 12:00:14 AM | message detail
I suppose my flaw was not realizing that Yoshi and Luigi were probably equal indirectly this year, and recognizing that Dante and Kirby must always be projected to have a very close match...

So how's that Dante vs Kirby match supposed to go this year?
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
YoboD | Posted 10/27/2006 12:01:14 AM | message detail
... So would Kirby beat Yoshi after this?
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