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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 407

UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/26/2006 9:45:50 PM | message detail
This would entail some work in terms of changing stuff around, and I really would rather not spend the time.

It's just 5 minutes. It really doesn't matter in the long run.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 9:46:03 PM | message detail
Hmmm...Luigi is usually a vote drawing machine, but perhaps Kirby nerfs that. He did it against Bowser...
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/26/2006 9:46:25 PM | message detail
Right now it's a little slower than Zero/Luigi, but I expect these two to be big draws during the day. Especially if they can keep it close. 135k is the ceiling for me, 127k is the floor.

TuRtLe
~~~
49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2006 9:47:19 PM | message detail
Kirby's basically on damage control right now...that update wasn't the disaster the last one was, but he's not making any moves here.

He could do something with the day vote, but given that Luigi is no Bowser he has to keep it reasonably close.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 9:47:27 PM | message detail
...127,000 votes is a lot to expect as a floor.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/26/2006 9:48:06 PM | message detail
Well this is exciting and all, but I'd rather not lose sleep over it. Especially when I plan to nerdgasm and spend most of tomorrow playing DMC 5th anniversary bundle pack (yes that's seriously what my ebgames pre-order receipt calls it strangely enough) after I pick it up on my way home from class. Maybe I'll even be motivated to write a game log for once, although probably not. >_>
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Albums I'm currently listening to: A Twist in the Myth, The Winter Wake, Amputechture, Deus Ex Machinae, Let Mortal Heroes Sing your Fame, and others.
creativename | Posted 10/26/2006 9:48:56 PM | message detail
It's just 5 minutes. It really doesn't matter in the long run.

Indeed, which is why it would be better if people simply exercised some restraint, instead of me doing needless work.

I don't get why someone would want to uglify the first 5 minutes anyway. What's the use?
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 9:49:26 PM | message detail
Might just be somebody trolling.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 9:50:24 PM | message detail
I don't get why someone would want to uglify the first 5 minutes anyway. What's the use?

to be annoying. why do people troll in the first place? I have no idea where the appeal lies, but that's the reason.
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xyzzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 9:50:59 PM | message detail
Looks like Kirby just fell into night vote pace a little sooner than Luigi did. His votes per update have slowed down quite a bit now, too.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 9:51:08 PM | message detail
looks like the match has calmed down a bit. the last two updates have been relatively stable instead of each character making huge gains and cuts.
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xyzzy
Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/26/2006 9:51:09 PM | message detail
Hm... They're basically going 50/50 now. I'm going to bed. I have to write my college essay tomorrow.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2006 9:51:29 PM | message detail
And Kirby does nothing more than a little stall again. Well I'm off, here's hoping Kirby does respectably during the night and has a smashing day vote somehow!
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/26/2006 9:52:03 PM | message detail
Oh, I just realized. With Luigi winning, the casuals are likely going to pwn the board again with that prediction %.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
creativename | Posted 10/26/2006 9:52:03 PM | message detail
Very unpredictable match right now.

I'm happy with Luigi though, it could've been much worse. He's doing very well.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/26/2006 9:54:04 PM | message detail
So, unless this is some more freaky-deaky rSFF on Kirby's part, he is looking to be comfortably ahead of Zero.

Poor Zero ;___;

At this rate, he's going to be booted from the near-elite tier

TuRtLe
~~~
49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 9:54:11 PM | message detail
and I'm cheering for Luigi mostly so we can see Luigi-Sonic. the stats could potentially get a bit messed up thanks to him being a Mario proxy, but I'd laugh so hard if he managed to beat Sonic. that'd be a lot more interesting than Sonic-Kirby.
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xyzzy
DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2006 9:54:45 PM | message detail
Oh, I just realized. With Luigi winning, the casuals are likely going to pwn the board again with that prediction %.

I don't know whether to be offended for being called a casual, or agree and laugh because it's probably true.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/26/2006 9:55:12 PM | message detail
I just want Luigi to win so his Win/Lose rate will go above .500 for once. Also, Luigi is awesome.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 9:55:42 PM | message detail
Meh, I doubt Luigi can pull off enough to actually BEAT Sonic, but who knows?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2006 9:56:13 PM | message detail
Gain of 36 for Luigi.

I will kill somebody if Luigi beats Sonic.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 9:56:34 PM | message detail
I will laugh at all the dead bodies!
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xyzzy
DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2006 9:56:54 PM | message detail
No, there is no way Luigi beats Sonic.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/26/2006 9:56:57 PM | message detail
Time to use reverse-Smurf stats! Quick, someone base Luigi current % off of Kirby's 2005 value and then put him against the weakest Sonic in any contest!

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/26/2006 9:57:12 PM | message detail
Luigi beating Sonic would surpass Mario beating Cloud as the single best contest poll ever held.
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Mustache...and green...
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/26/2006 9:57:15 PM | message detail
If Luigi beats Snoic, I will eat my hat. Literally, eat my hat, with pics and everything.

TuRtLe
~~~
49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Haste_2 | Posted 10/26/2006 9:58:12 PM | message detail
2K5 Kirby beats 2K4 Sonic already. :p

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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/26/2006 9:58:35 PM | message detail
Well then Luigi should win with absolute ease!

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 10:00:34 PM | message detail
Comeback reinitiated.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
Gaddswell | Posted 10/26/2006 10:00:57 PM | message detail
That was all Luigi dropping off.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Haste_2 | Posted 10/26/2006 10:01:32 PM | message detail
Whoops...2K3 Sonic, not 2K4.

Kirby had better hope Luigi has the advantage in the night.

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creativename | Posted 10/26/2006 10:01:43 PM | message detail
Luigi can't beat Sonic. 45% would be the moral victory target for him there. And he could well do that.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. This match is still pretty much a toss-up.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 10:02:36 PM | message detail
I'm thinking Luigi takes the morning vote. After the board vote, he decreased against Zero until the morning vote, where he kicked him around for a little while before the day vote brought him back down.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 10:02:47 PM | message detail
actually, I wouldn't be amazed if Sonic overperformed on Luigi either. I just have zero idea how that match would go.

still, it's more fun than Kirby! and yeah, this match isn't anything close to over.
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xyzzy
Janus5000 | Posted 10/26/2006 10:03:11 PM | message detail
Using 2k3 Sonic and 2k5 Kirby, Luigi is expected to win with 51.2% or so.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Kaxon | Posted 10/26/2006 10:03:40 PM | message detail
This would entail some work in terms of changing stuff around, and I really would rather not spend the time.

Well, I don't mind doing it if you're willing to give me the login info.
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....TCELES B HSUP
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/26/2006 10:05:48 PM | message detail
And with that good note, I'm off to bed.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 10:06:12 PM | message detail
I wish Kirby would stop dropping off the update after he wins one.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
KingBartz | Posted 10/26/2006 10:10:43 PM | message detail
WHOA LUIGI WINS!!!!

Sweet.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 52/58 Today's pick: Luigi
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/26/2006 10:10:55 PM | message detail
Meh, I doubt Luigi can pull off enough to actually BEAT Sonic, but who knows?

Hey, now it's my turn to say that Yoshi has a better chance at beating Snake than Luigi does at beating Sonic.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/26/2006 10:11:32 PM | message detail
Wow.

Luigi just dominated that update with 56% of the vote and a lead of 311. Very nice show, Luigi!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 10:11:40 PM | message detail
whoa, that was one hell of an update.

..hello, night vote?
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xyzzy
DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2006 10:11:52 PM | message detail
HOLY **** YES!!

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
Gaddswell | Posted 10/26/2006 10:13:19 PM | message detail
And again, that was mostly Kirby dropping even more. He only got 236 votes that time while Luigi got 308.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 10:13:58 PM | message detail
keep it up so my insane 55% pick comes to fruition and Leon has to eat some headwear!
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xyzzy
MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/26/2006 10:14:32 PM | message detail
I finish my homework and come back to Luigi delightfully expanding his lead.

Hooray!
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Asians 4 | Blacks 3
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 10:15:41 PM | message detail
Hey, now it's my turn to say that Yoshi has a better chance at beating Snake than Luigi does at beating Sonic.

Actually, no. I'd give Luigi a better chance on the odds that he can actually fluke out a win on the basis of being a Mario proxy. He has a .000000001% chance of victory.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 10:16:46 PM | message detail
I would agree that Luigi has a better chance on Sonic than Yoshi does on Snake.
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xyzzy
DpObliVion | Posted 10/26/2006 10:16:54 PM | message detail
55% insane? I said 57%!

I think it's been well established that I'm a terrible percentage predictor, though. Except for Chun-Li/Lara Croft.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
KingBartz | Posted 10/26/2006 10:16:58 PM | message detail
You call it Kirby dropping off, but it's not really. Luigi is gaining. It's hard to see, but following past trends, the votals usually drop off by now. Luigi staying constant is actually Luigi gaining.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 52/58 Today's pick: Luigi