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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 406

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2006 11:41:10 AM | message detail
Vincent's still hanging tough...a little *too* tough. The afterschool vote is coming and not a moment too soon for Sonic, if he can't get this above at least 53% I'll be very iffy on his chances against Crono.

It's just hard for me to imagine Vincent within a percent or so of Crono...though I guess it could happen.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
Kaxon | Posted 10/26/2006 11:41:53 AM | message detail
What's that I see? Is the afterschool vote going to Vincent? Probably not really, but that would be hilarious if it did...
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....TCELES B HSUP
red sox 777 | Posted 10/26/2006 11:42:06 AM | message detail
Vincent has won the last 3 updates. And it's past 2:30. Vincent Afterschool Vote? Not happening, but Vincent winning the afterschool vote to come back and win would be hilarious.
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"........!" ~Magus
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2006 11:43:27 AM | message detail
I'd wait until school actually lets out before making crazy claims with the afterschool vote. =P Jill was winning updates comfortably right up until that 3:00 mark, after all.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
BDawg | Posted 10/26/2006 12:17:13 PM | message detail
Heh whenever Vince gets around 48% it's like Sonic turns it on and says "I must break you."
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Should I start running now?
red sox 777 | Posted 10/26/2006 1:02:58 PM | message detail
Vincent is still holding up pretty well with the afterschool vote. He's won 2 updates and only lost 0.07% since 3 Eastern. Vincent actually ended with his highest percentage of the day against Ganon, so I suppose this makes sense. FFVII is just awful in the first hour and gets better as the day progresses.
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"........!" ~Magus
Master Moltar | Posted 10/26/2006 1:03:46 PM | message detail
Very respectable performance by Vincent today. He shouldn't get clobbered by the after-school vote, but Sonic may push 53%. Still, makes Ganondorf look great!

And the picture looks great, especially Sonic.

Kirby looks like he's trying to block Luigi out of the picture. Woo!

Crono/Bowser is badass. Both look really good.

Old men looking for a table for chess is right on with Auron/Sub.

Sprite round time, lucky Snake...

Eww @ KH2 Rikku, Samus looks alright

Even bigger eww @ Tifa. That's worse than her pic against Sonic. Peach doesn't look so hot herself though.

Finally, a good FF sprite. Aeris looks good, and heh @ Zelda.

Yuna looks great, and Chun looks like a man.

Good thing its the sprite round, so the good picture standard bar is lowered, and with the regular pics in the background, that should help whoever gets a bad sprite.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Ryu vs. Mega Man - Bracket: MM - Vote: MM (48/54)
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/26/2006 1:07:14 PM | message detail
100 vote update win. y halo thar day vote.
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic The Hedgehog Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO SONIC!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/26/2006 1:08:11 PM | message detail
I can't see Vincent falling much during the day here. FF7 characters are pretty good with the day vote, due to being recognizable, which is one of Sonic's biggest strengths during the day.

TuRtLe
~~~
49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/26/2006 1:09:27 PM | message detail
Vincent is "pretty good". Sonic is Devestating. There's a huge difference.
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic The Hedgehog Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO SONIC!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/26/2006 1:10:43 PM | message detail
Sonic barely improved against CATS in the day. I don't think his day vote is what it used to be
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/26/2006 1:11:20 PM | message detail
FF7 male characters are good with the day vote. Yeah, I know VIncent's a male, but let's not forget Tifa and Aeris are day vote chumps.

And Sonic isn't going to fly up to Crono numbers, but he should increase his percentage a bit from it to the high 52's-low 53's. Vincent may be good with it, but Sonic characters are kings of the day.

Hmm, Sonic day vote vs. KH day vote, WHO YA GOT?
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sonic vs. Vincent - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (50/56)
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/26/2006 1:13:47 PM | message detail
Sonic, easily.
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic The Hedgehog Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO SONIC!
Kaxon | Posted 10/26/2006 1:14:56 PM | message detail
Eh, no point debating what you think will happen, this is the day vote. Sonic's percentage in the last hour: 53.17%. He's not going to gain a ton... the best he can hope for is probably pushing 53% by the end.
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....TCELES B HSUP
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/26/2006 1:19:54 PM | message detail
Wow. Kirby takes up 2/3 of the match pic. That's what I call pic advantage.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/26/2006 1:23:18 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/26/2006 1:23:45 PM | message detail
Reminds me of Dante Vs. Yoshi. A match I thought that would be within 1%, but I picked the wrong one, and Yoshi was taking up most of the picture.

And this time I have Luigi.. >_<
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/26/2006 1:39:42 PM | message detail
From Master Moltar Posted 10/26/2006 4:11:20 PM
FF7 male characters are good with the day vote. Yeah, I know VIncent's a male, but let's not forget Tifa and Aeris are day vote chumps.

And Sonic isn't going to fly up to Crono numbers, but he should increase his percentage a bit from it to the high 52's-low 53's. Vincent may be good with it, but Sonic characters are kings of the day.

Hmm, Sonic day vote vs. KH day vote, WHO YA GOT?


Sonic vs KH I'd say would be a split.

Sonic has his recognizability, but KH has the kiddy appeal.

It also seems to me that well-known badasses will do better with the day vote. Characters like Knuckles, Vincent or Zero.

TuRtLe
~~~
49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
trannyscience | Posted 10/26/2006 1:46:38 PM | message detail
KH wins the day vote vs. Sonic.
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zizzy
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/26/2006 1:47:52 PM | message detail
Wow. This is an extremely nice showing from Vincent here. I knew he would been able to hold up well against Sonic's day vote. Very nice.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/26/2006 1:52:23 PM | message detail
And KH definitely takes the day vote against Sonic.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
BDawg | Posted 10/26/2006 1:55:42 PM | message detail
I like how people say Chun Li looks like a man. Doesn't Chun Li ALWAYS look like a man?!
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Should I start running now?
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/26/2006 2:00:48 PM | message detail
From BDawg Posted 10/26/2006 4:55:42 PM
I like how people say Chun Li looks like a man. Doesn't Chun Li ALWAYS look like a man?!

Just from the waist down <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/26/2006 2:40:04 PM | message detail
I'm almost half-hoping Aeris beat Zelda so she unexpectedly loses to Yuna and we get the biggest upset ever! I could see it happening. Underrated Yuna, overrated Aeris, rSFF, whoo!
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caps
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/26/2006 2:52:19 PM | message detail
Yuna is definitely underrated, but if Aeris > Zelda, there's no chance Aeris is overrated. Either way, Sonic is doing a little better than I thought he would be doing, though Vincent may still push to 48% by the time this ends. Either way, Crono > Male Bracket still. The only person that I think has any sort of a chance of beating Crono is Snake, and yet I still think MM > Snake. Funny dat.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
trannyscience | Posted 10/26/2006 3:13:41 PM | message detail
I won't write Sonic off completely since the match is projected to be close either way, but I am indeed more scared of Snake beating Crono than Sonic just because of the unknown and how good he's looked.
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zizzy
rpgapzx | Posted 10/26/2006 3:25:42 PM | message detail
Vincent, Tifa, and Aeris:

Vincent:
Best %: 48.20%
Worst % after 1st hr: 46.19%
Worst % after 3 hrs: 47.58%
Finishing %: 47-48%

Tifa:
Best%: 47.68%
Worst % after 1st hour: 42.57%
Worst % after 3 hrs: 42.57%
Finishing %: 43.60%

Aeris:
DISCLAIMER: SC2k3.
Finishing %: 46.98%

Summary: Vincent and Tifa fought to similar percentages, but Vincent withstood Sonic's impressive dayvote, whereas Tifa was decimated by it.. Aeris' figure is unreliable -_-.

Begs, the age old question.

Vincent>Aeris>Tifa or Vincent>Tifa>Aeris?

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Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex.
SC2K6: 55/56 // Today: Sonic // Leaderboard: 9th
trannyscience | Posted 10/26/2006 3:35:17 PM | message detail
does anyone have Cloud/Sonic updates?
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zizzy
HaRRicH | Posted 10/26/2006 3:36:02 PM | message detail
Vincent > Tifa > Aeris. Not worried about that one -- Aeris was just lucky enough to face Sonic-2k3.
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red sox 777 | Posted 10/26/2006 3:37:05 PM | message detail
I believe Cloud won the day vote against Sonic, but I don't know any specifics. Aeris, however, actually cut Sonic's lead at night, and came to around 100 votes of taking the lead before the sun rose and Sonic took off.
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"........!" ~Magus
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/26/2006 3:38:18 PM | message detail
Hey, FF7 vs. Sonic is like FFX vs. Ganondorf....or FFX vs. Sonic related things.
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caps
Super Luigi | Posted 10/26/2006 3:40:55 PM | message detail
So where are the people who thought Snake would not make it a close match with Sonic, Or even beat him?
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Currently playing : Splinter Cell DA(Xbox 360), Dead Rising(Xbox 360), PGR3(Xbox 360).
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MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/26/2006 3:49:37 PM | message detail
Okay. Here's what I've come up with on the whole Sonic/Vincent deal...

According to 2005, Sonic was projected to win this match with 53.79% of the vote. As it stands now, he has 52.37% and is rising ever slightly. By messing around with a constant Sonic, Vincent ends up around 33.5% on 2k5 Link, which is about a percent increase from last year -- and does indeed make him the strongest non-Noble Nine character.

Ganon, on the other hand, ends up at about 31.75% on 2k5 Link (34%+ on BL) and that raises him up by nearly a percent from last year. And for the clueless, Ganon has indeed reached his 2003 levels. Congrats to Ganon for not being overrated!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
trannyscience | Posted 10/26/2006 3:51:21 PM | message detail
well, Ganon was overrated in 2003. he's just increased enough since then to match his 2003 value. he's still below his VC number though - still overrated!
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zizzy
Kaxon | Posted 10/26/2006 3:51:41 PM | message detail
Sonic's afternoon vote here has been extremely unimpressive. Even four hours into it he's gained less than half a percent, and still hasn't returned to his morning peak.
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....TCELES B HSUP
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/26/2006 3:53:36 PM | message detail
No, no. I'm talking about being overrated now. I think we all know the crazy "GANON IS OVERRATED" or "GANON COULD STILL BE OVERRATED IN 2005" nonsense that was abundant. It's nice to at least get a concrete value on him. Hopefully Sonic goes on to win the male bracket so that Ganon can look better !!

And, uh, a rematch between Magus and Ganon is expected to go the King of Evil with 54%!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/26/2006 3:55:40 PM | message detail
Also, a match between Sonic/Ganon is expected to go 55/45. Nothing that TP can't handle, am I right? =p

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 4:10:43 PM | message detail
Here my biased opinion on Sonic's performance:

He's finally started to gain , and while he might not break 53%, there's alot that can explain why he won't. Vincent has more reason than any other character in the bracket to have a boost, and Crono could have SFF'D him in 20055 (Very unlikely). So while I hoped Sonic would do better, Vincent just need to have had a 1% boost to make 2006 Sonic = 2005 Sonic. However it's still possible that Vincent boosted more (or nothing at all) so Sonic is doing an ok match.
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Supporter of Chun Li
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 4:12:37 PM | message detail
I'd take Sonic > Ganon on the basis of "It's friggin' Sonic" because I just can't fathom somebody like Ganondorf beating such a legend.

Nice to see that Sonic's after school vote is treating him well and he managed to keep Vincent from hitting 48%. I don't know if he can get to 53% by the end, but either way, I think I'm content with what he has done. At the very least, Sonic seems to be constant from 2005. Random variation would be enough to get him over Mega Man (plus, the Blue Bomber's underwhelming performances could lend him to a drop. Even a very slight one could drop him below Sonic anyway), but he'd need a little more than random variation to beat Crono, I think.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
trannyscience | Posted 10/26/2006 4:14:49 PM | message detail
Sonic's day vote is overstated. the two matches I can think of where Sonic characters dominated the day vote were against Kefka and Magus. Sonic didn't do much against vs. Mega Man last year either - it's good, but it's not the monster that people make it out to be.

looks like Diablo beat Sonic with his day vote last year, though not by much at all. that sounds about right.
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zizzy
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/26/2006 4:17:27 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 4:20:26 PM | message detail
Sonic pushed a 50/50 match with Ryu to 55/45, and Knuckles did the same against Yuna. Knuckles has ripped major percentage off of Solid Snake in all three meetings (more than most people. He pushed their 2004 meeting from a doubling to under 60%), and he did the same against Squall. Sonic used it to distance himself from Aeris and Tifa, and he did take it from Diablo.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
HaRRicH | Posted 10/26/2006 4:20:52 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, Diablo got linkage at about the half-way mark in Diablo/Sonic, so that may have played a part in that.
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Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1)
BDawg | Posted 10/26/2006 4:21:24 PM | message detail
I don't know I think you could at least wait and see what Crono puts on Bowser. Beating down Captain Falcon isn't any evidence of what he's capable of this year.
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Should I start running now?
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/26/2006 4:21:36 PM | message detail
What really annoys me is seeing Vincent this strong to begin with. Link or no Link, I'm tired of seeing everything FF7 dominate this site.

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Can't think of a good sig.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/26/2006 4:27:37 PM | message detail
So where are the people who thought Snake would not make it a close match with Sonic, Or even beat him?

What? There were plenty people who wanted to see a Snake/Sonic match this year.

What really annoys me is seeing Vincent this strong to begin with. Link or no Link, I'm tired of seeing everything FF7 dominate this site.

It's more depressing to see Sonic this strong. He was a pretty good character in the cartoons, but after going through Sonic Mega Collection, he just doesn't seem that great anymore.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 4:33:41 PM | message detail
Silence!

For some reason, I get excited about Sonic's contest run every year to the point where I almost want to vote him over characters I normally would not. Maybe that's because my bracket depends on him...

Either way, he's still an awesome character to me, and I'm actually looking forward to the new games.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
trannyscience | Posted 10/26/2006 4:34:25 PM | message detail
those are all rather old matches - the Sonic of 2005 and 2006 hasn't shown me that he's a day vote beast. not like KH or Master Chief has, anyway. again, he's good, just not legendary.
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zizzy
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 4:36:00 PM | message detail
In reality, Knuckles is better with it than he is. Tails isn't THAT great with it himself, though he's better than average. Amy did pretty well against KOS-MOS with it, and she won it from Aeris.

Robotnik, on the other hand, sucks hard with it. He lost it all three times and lost it badly.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
trannyscience | Posted 10/26/2006 4:36:46 PM | message detail
I was thinking the same thing. I also think Riku has a better day vote than Sora for whatever reason.
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zizzy