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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 406

Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 8:08:02 AM | message detail
Sonic is losing updates now? I'm starting to get worried that Luigi will beat Sonic.

Well considering what Shadow did to Mario, there could be something really fishy in that match.
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Supporter of Chun Li
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 8:12:34 AM | message detail
Through Mega Man/Ryu:

Samus Aran – 41.69%
Solid Snake – 41.45%
Mega Man – 38.79%
Squall Leonhart – 35.16%
Yoshi – 34.54%
Dante Sparda – 34.12%
Princess Zelda – 33.71%
Tifa Lockhart – 33.57%
Aeris Gainsborough – 32.81%
Ryu – 32.55%
Sora – 32.50%
Riku – 30.95%
Kratos – 27.92%
Rikku – 26.55%
Yuna – 26.10%
KOS-MOS – 25.17%
Chun-Li – 24.92%
Princess Peach – 23.75%
Jill Valentine – 23.74%
Gordon Freeman – 23.40%
Axel – 23.37%
Kairi – 22.15%
Lara Croft – 22.16%
Claire Redfield – 21.23%
Marle – 19.83%
Tidus – 19.68%
Phoenix Wright – 19.56%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 18.03%
Amy Rose – 17.40%
The Boss – 17.09%
Ada Wong – 16.86%
Ivy Valentine – 15.99%
Tingle – 15.85%
Kasumi – 15.58%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
Soma Cruz – 14.80%
Terra Branford – 13.85%
Celes Chere – 13.30%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 13.28%
Joanna Dark – 11.46%
Sarah Kerrigan – 11.45%
Roll – 10.81%
Alyx Vance – 9.94%
Carmen Sandiego – 9.38%
Cortana – 9.11%
Jade – 8.13%
Princess Daisy – 8.03%
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 8:14:13 AM | message detail
Ryu – 32.55%
Sora – 32.50%


I love that!
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Supporter of Chun Li
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/26/2006 8:14:23 AM | message detail
Tidus – 19.68%
Phoenix Wright – 19.56%

lol xstats
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Gooper Blooper | Posted 10/26/2006 8:15:33 AM | message detail
YOU GOT BOOST POWER
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face it cjay i have the high ground i have powend you - ertyu
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/26/2006 8:17:16 AM | message detail
If Luigi can do to Sonic what Shadow did to Mario, I will roffle my waffles

TuRtLe
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49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 8:18:16 AM | message detail
Comments on the pictures:

Sonic/Vincent - New Sonic the Hedgehog picture? Winner! Love it.

Kirby/Luigi - Kirby looks...fat. Luigi's picture is a little grainy, but not bad.

Crono/Bowser - Solid picture, but I don't think I've seen that one of Bowser before. Where's it from?

Auron/Sub-Zero - Sub-Zero overperforms because Auron's lacking his shades and the older community mistakes Sub-Zero for Shredder, bringing back memories of the days when the Ninja Turtles were awesome!

Samus/Rikku - Bleh, KHII Rikku? Samus looks pretty good though.

Tifa/Peach - Is that...Before Crisis (or is it Crisis Core) Tifa? Definitely doesn't look like her FFVII polygon. Not blocky enough. Figured we'd see SMB2 Peach.

Zelda/Aeris - All things considered, it's pretty average. This is basically everything you would expect from this picture.

Yuna/Chun-Li - Definitely an advantage to Chun-Li, but I'm glad that Ceej finally used FFX Yuna, even if it is just in the background.

Sonic's doing well so far. Vincent will do very respectably in the final percentages, but I doubt he's any serious threat to make a comeback. I was hoping the Blue Blur would get a higher percentage so I'd feel better about his match with Crono, but I suppose I can hold on to the hope that Vincent boosted noticeably from DoC.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 8:19:57 AM | message detail
Also, I'm not sure why people were thinking anything about Yoshi > Snake. Uhhh...Did you guys forget Bowser > Yoshi? And that Snake still beat Bowser in spite of his sprite?

Anyway, the very noticeable artwork in the background should help Snake out anyway. Sora/Mega Man should be a very awesome picture though, as should Sonic vs. Luigi/Kirby (we'll finally see one of those two in full sprited glory!).
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/26/2006 8:20:21 AM | message detail
Shadow's performance was legit. Anybody who calls it a "Sonic Proxy" is just trash talking.
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 8:21:21 AM | message detail
Oh, and I was thinking about this yesterday...Sunday is the day when we set the clocks back one hour, so Auron/Sub-Zero will actually be a 25 hour match. Not that it'll make a difference in the grand scheme of things, but woo boy, imagine if that had happened on the day of Jill/Peach.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 8:21:57 AM | message detail
Shadow's performance was legit. Anybody who calls it a "Sonic Proxy" is just trash talking.

So Mega Man destroys Mario, and Kirby beats him, too?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
Tediz247 | Posted 10/26/2006 8:23:27 AM | message detail
So Tidus mysteriously dropped between beating Shadow and getting creamed by Mega Man?
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
consolefreak | Posted 10/26/2006 8:28:01 AM | message detail
Sad to see Vincent losing it here. That's costing me 14 points =p Ah well at least he's keeping it respectable. For now.

And it's awesome that sprites are coupled with face pics. No Snake underperforming crap. Also, I gotta say that the face pics are awesome so far. Tifa and Rikku specifically, look great. Samus and Yuna are nice as well.

Tifa/Peach - Is that...Before Crisis (or is it Crisis Core) Tifa? Definitely doesn't look like her FFVII polygon. Not blocky enough. Figured we'd see SMB2 Peach.

Isn't it from the flashback scene where she is the guide?
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CB: 50/54. Today: Ryu vs. Mega Man. Tomorrow: Sonic vs. Vincent.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/26/2006 8:38:48 AM | message detail
I was just looking at Mega Man's prediction rate yesterday, and I have to wonder how incredibly low it will be when he beats Snake. Under 10%?

TuRtLe
~~~
49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 8:43:56 AM | message detail
Isn't it from the flashback scene where she is the guide?

Nah, it's too well refined and polished. If it was from FFVII, it would look much blockier. Plus, I don't recall any point in the game where Tifa as the guide uses a fighting pose.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 8:47:44 AM | message detail
Plus, looking up info on Before Crisis and Crisis Core, Tifa does indeed wear her guide uniform in both appearances. That's a nice find by Ceej if that's where it's from.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/26/2006 8:48:02 AM | message detail
If I had to guess, I'd say Tifa came from Ergheiz

TuRtLe
~~~
49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
voltch | Posted 10/26/2006 8:48:20 AM | message detail
who cares tifa still wins.
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 8:52:23 AM | message detail
I've played Ehrgeiz, and she doesn't have the guide outfit as an alternate outfit. Plus, the character models don't look like that.

Also, looking at Tifa's Wikipedia article:

Tifa has been featured in GameFAQs's character battles, being defeated by Sonic in 2005. In the ongoing 2006 character battle, she is a likely contender for the winner of the female bracket, her biggest competition being Samus Aran.

Interesting.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
Tediz247 | Posted 10/26/2006 8:53:16 AM | message detail
Did Vlado edit that?
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/26/2006 8:59:16 AM | message detail
lol likely contender
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CB5 Points: 53/56, Current Oracle placement: 22/165
Now playing: Okami
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/26/2006 9:01:21 AM | message detail
Vincent has about three hours to lower Sonic's percentage as much as possible before the Blue Blur kicks it into another gear. I hope he can creep back up to around 48%.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 9:04:39 AM | message detail
At the 12:00 mark, this match has 56786 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

MC/Sub-Zero - 59108
Sora/Gordon - 54995
Yoshi/Dante - 58464
Ryu/Mega Man - 54875

Probably 125,000 votes for this one. Kinda expected this one to outdo Yoshi/Dante, but then again, that was a close match.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/26/2006 9:06:02 AM | message detail
IIRC, Sonic is often involved in pretty low-drawing matches. I figured Vincent would be able to counteract that a bit, and it looks like he is.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 9:06:47 AM | message detail
Yeah, Sonic has a history of not being a great vote drawer, which absolutely astounds me. He's the second most recognizable video game character in history. He should do better.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/26/2006 9:07:31 AM | message detail
After a quick look, it seems that he's continuing that tradition. Sonic/CATS is the least popular poll on the male half so far. Even Gordon/Phoenix drew 2000 more votes.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 9:09:41 AM | message detail
As a matter of fact, Sonic/CATS has the 8th worst vote totals of the contest so far, behind Lara/Alyx, Ada/Jade, Terra/Kerrigan, Joanna/Cortana, KOS-MOS/Amy, Chun-Li/Kasumi, and Kairi/Claire.

In other words, it's got the worst totals for a male bracket match, and even Peach/Daisy outdrew it. Even so, it is only about 500 behind Snake/Soma.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/26/2006 9:11:56 AM | message detail
I'm surprised Snake didn't draw a bit more, but then again, he was up right after the least popular match of the contest.

Heh, it's funny how our least popular match, a contest between Lara Croft and a complete unknown, outdrew nearly the entire Games Contest with ease. Times have changed.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 9:20:16 AM | message detail
Hmmm...You know, I really wonder what Sonic's prediction percentage will be after this match. He had 96.38% getting past CATS, and he's in a four pack with Zelda and FFVII.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/26/2006 9:47:56 AM | message detail
Probably 125,000 votes for this one. Kinda expected this one to outdo Yoshi/Dante, but then again, Yoshi is going to beat Snake and win the male bracket, so it makes sense that he's had two of the highest scoring matches.

Fixed! : D
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 9:49:44 AM | message detail
Yoshi beating Snake is more of a fanboyish delusion than Squall beating Snake.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/26/2006 9:51:11 AM | message detail
Absolutely.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
KingBartz | Posted 10/26/2006 10:00:00 AM | message detail
Right.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 50/56 Today's pick: Sonic the Hedgehog
Haste_2 | Posted 10/26/2006 10:22:19 AM | message detail
Sonic's prediction percentage won't be very good... Samus' support went down to...50% (86% the previous round) going through Ganondorf, and Samus actually had a HIGHER prediction percentage going through Sonic in 2K4. Ganondorf might not be quite as overestimated this year, though.

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Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 10:23:35 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'd imagine coming fresh off of the Villains Contest had a lot to do with Ganondorf getting hefty bracket support (same goes for Bowser), but still...Sonic should experience a big drop in prediction percentage here.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/26/2006 10:46:08 AM | message detail
It would be the godliest thing ever if Luigi beats Kirby, rSFFs Sonic to victory due to the Mario factor, has an insanely close match with Crono AND Snake while winning, and then rSFFs Samus to win the entire bracket while killing four Noble Nine members in the row.

But at the moment, one step at a time. First he's gotta rSFF Kirby.
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Hispanics 1 | Whites 5
Asians 4 | Blacks 3
jonthomson | Posted 10/26/2006 10:57:18 AM | message detail
This is supposed to be Sonic's best time, right? Surely he should have done better in the last hour than go more or less exactly 50/50. Hmm.
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Jon Thomson - Z1mZum pwned me good and proper.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/26/2006 11:03:17 AM | message detail
Roughly 12-3 on school days seems to act like sort of a second night vote, which is hardly Sonic's best time.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/26/2006 11:03:55 AM | message detail
Anyone else feel like Snake beating MM isn't right? What are we basing Snake off of in those stats, Leon? And how does he come that close to Samus?
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/26/2006 11:05:24 AM | message detail
I'm assuming he's basing those stats off of Squall.
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
jonthomson | Posted 10/26/2006 11:05:29 AM | message detail
Yeah, thought as much. Never know what constitutes the day vote now, and IIRC Sonic is good at that
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Jon Thomson - Z1mZum pwned me good and proper.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/26/2006 11:07:11 AM | message detail
But basing them off of Squall is ridiculous, everyone knows he was SFF'd.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/26/2006 11:11:42 AM | message detail
But basing them off of Squall is ridiculous, everyone knows he was SFF'd.

*agrees*

We shouldn't base anything on Squall this year... both his preformances are all over the map.

KB


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I admit, Kyle Bowen's Social Bar and Lounge was the worst series of topics ever. Also, I hate Shadow Hearts.-10/21-10/28
therealmnm | Posted 10/26/2006 11:18:17 AM | message detail
I don't really pay Leon's stats any mind since it's a mix of last year's stats and this year's performances with him choosing what to base things off of. I'm just doing this contest stats by 4-pack and seeing how they end up as we go along.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 11:18:45 AM | message detail
...Not all aspects of my preliminary stats are to be taken seriously. Some of it is obvious bias just because I can.

Speaking of that, they predict a 50.57% win for Kirby tomorrow. Hopefully the match will be that exciting.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 11:22:19 AM | message detail
And they're more "unadjusted" stats than anything. I use them more for picking up suspicious performances and the like, based off of what a character looks like in the stats if such a performance were "legitimate." Seeing Snake shoot up in the stats is such an example of pointing out an obvious overperformance.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
therealmnm | Posted 10/26/2006 11:23:25 AM | message detail
...Not all aspects of my preliminary stats are to be taken seriously. Some of it is obvious bias just because I can.

Exactly. Which is why I pay them no mind!
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 11:26:53 AM | message detail
Finally Sonic spiked. Is this a sign of the "Sonicdayvote" that seems like it will never come or just a random boost.

I think it's the later >_>
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Supporter of Chun Li
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/26/2006 11:28:31 AM | message detail
Whoa, that was a nice spike by Sonic. It was more Vincent falling than him rising though. However, the Blue Blur has steadily gone up in votes with his last three updates.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/26/2006 11:38:12 AM | message detail
I hope Sonic's match with CATS isn't an indication of his day day vote this year. 79.5% with the night vote, 81.5% of the morning, 82% with the after-school.

You wouldn't even know it was a weekday!

...just to make sure, there were no holidays that day were there? >_>
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.