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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 406

NewLib | Posted 10/26/2006 12:10:51 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/26/2006 12:12:36 AM | message detail
I think anything in the upper-high 50's would be very good for Snake. I don't expect him to match his traditional performances on Knuckles, but would be overjoyed if he came close.

Speaking of which, despite what the stats and previous results say, do you guys think Knuckles can actually beat Yoshi? I can't even see Yoshi struggling at all.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 12:13:44 AM | message detail
Yoshi wins that without too much trouble... even though Knuckles and Dante were equals last year. I'd take Luigi to beat him too.
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xyzzy
NewLib | Posted 10/26/2006 12:15:51 AM | message detail
Really it be close statwise. Yoshi beat Dante by a percent who lost to Vincent by 54-46. Vincent beat Squall Post-AC 50.59-40.41 and Squall beat Knuckles.54-46.

Really depends on how much AC affected Vincent.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 12:18:46 AM | message detail
Vincent/Squall was pre-AC.
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xyzzy
NewLib | Posted 10/26/2006 12:20:54 AM | message detail
Really? I thought it happenend right before Vincent/Squall.

Well if thats the case, it really shouldnt be close.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 12:28:31 AM | message detail
Sonic is doing better here than what he did against Tifa.

Excellent.
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Supporter of Ryu.
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/26/2006 12:29:32 AM | message detail
Tifa took the lead IIRC. Then Sonic blew her away.
This does indeed look like another boost for Sonic.
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic The Hedgehog Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO SONIC!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 12:30:20 AM | message detail
I wouldn't call it a boost. But even if Crono had bettter % than Sonic, his lead is about the same :D
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Supporter of Ryu.
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/26/2006 12:31:57 AM | message detail
Crono was playing him before the AC/DoC boost. Sonic's boost appears to be cancelling that out.
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Smurf. The Cream of Sonic The Hedgehog Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO SONIC!
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 12:32:55 AM | message detail
uhh.....
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xyzzy
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/26/2006 12:35:47 AM | message detail
I'm not even going to bother with these two. >>

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 12:40:13 AM | message detail
We are Sonic fanboys after all ^_^

But if you compare Sonic's lead to Crono's lead, and if Vincent has boosted since 2005, Sonic is doing great right now.

Of course he has to take the day vote to look impressive.
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Supporter of Chun Li
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/26/2006 12:41:55 AM | message detail
Yoshi being in the match against Snake is enough of an accomplishment for me to be happy about.

Yoshi beating Zelda against Snake is what will really be cause for celebration.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
zwong1 | Posted 10/26/2006 12:42:24 AM | message detail
Sonic and Snake might actually had a chance to beat Noble Nine this year.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/26/2006 12:42:39 AM | message detail
Yoshi beating Zelda against Snake is what will really be cause for celebration.

Pfft! No such thing is happening here, sir!!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/26/2006 12:44:37 AM | message detail
It's going to be weird comparing Mega Man and Solid Snake next round since they each have the other one's Sweet Sixteen opponent last year and they both over-performed in their matches last year, not to mention their opponents both have reason to boost since last year too...

...oh, and sprites too, though at least there'll be a real picture in the background.
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TehMissingLink | Posted 10/26/2006 12:46:14 AM | message detail
Speaking of which, I'm glad that there is artwork in the backgrounds of the pictures. That sort of lessens the "problem" with some of the sprites.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
zwong1 | Posted 10/26/2006 12:46:59 AM | message detail
I think Snake will get 60% on yoshi.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
NewLib | Posted 10/26/2006 1:12:14 AM | message detail
Tifa came no where near taking the lead anytime againist Sonic.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/26/2006 1:19:48 AM | message detail
Sonic has a lead of about 1000 and hes struggling to hold on to it right now. Hell probably lose some of it within the next few hours but explode with the morning vote and go even till afterschool vote.

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transience | Posted 10/26/2006 1:25:15 AM | message detail
opinions on this match:

assuming a constant Sonic and this ending at.. 52%, Vincent is at 36.96%, dead even with a constant Snake. this puts Ganondorf at 35.04%, 1% lower than his VC value. (and almost dead even with his 2k3 number!) both seem relatively reasonable - if Sonic gains another percent or so, it "fits" even better. I see no reason to assume a Sonic boost, as it puts Vincent on a level I'm not ready to give him yet. I feel better about Crono > Sonic, though not certain by any means since we haven't seen Crono face Bowser.CATS seems to just be weaker this year. I still don't think predicting off of him is a good idea, so that doesn't bother me at all. basically, this seems to be a match that the x-stats predicted to near-perfection. it looks like Vincent got a 1.5% boost after all, even despite any DD overratedness.

again, this is all a constant Sonic. use a constant Vincent and Sonic's looking pretty bad. if you assume both of them boosted, well, good luck there.
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xyzzy
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/26/2006 1:30:22 AM | message detail
It's going to be weird comparing Mega Man and Solid Snake next round since they each have the other one's Sweet Sixteen opponent last year and they both over-performed in their matches last year, not to mention their opponents both have reason to boost since last year too...

...oh, and sprites too, though at least there'll be a real picture in the background.


Yeah, isn't that spiffy? I think I also added in yesterday's topic at 3 am that they were both sffish matches, too.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/26/2006 1:37:21 AM | message detail
ARGH. Rikku gets the best background picture ever, but still gets STUPID KH2 SPRITE. WHY DOES YUNA GET GUNS WHILE RIKKU GETS A KH2 SPRIIIIIIIIITE!?
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caps
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 1:38:02 AM | message detail
Sonic is still doing better here then what he did against Tifa. Sonic has boosted </fanboyism>
Supporter of Chun Li
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/26/2006 1:38:17 AM | message detail
And Vincent finally hits 48%. Seeing as how it took him over 2.5 hours to muscle his way from 47 to 48, I think he'll need a small miracle to see 49% before the morning vote hits.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 2:38:14 AM | message detail
Just some updating.

The updater is one update behind, and Sonic gained around 50 votes in the last update :D
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Supporter of Chun Li
janembaman | Posted 10/26/2006 2:54:56 AM | message detail
48.09... Vincent is crazy
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laff
AHNpg11 | Posted 10/26/2006 3:04:39 AM | message detail
...lead down 80 in the last four updates. including some really awful percentages on the updates from Sonic.
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voltch | Posted 10/26/2006 3:10:18 AM | message detail
have all noble niners boosted except crono recently?

now we need crono in KHIII and the noble nine is set for another ywo years.
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 3:11:31 AM | message detail
yeah, Sonic's "dreaded morning vote" is delayed thanks to school being in session. still, Sonic is getting wrecked here as the morning approaches - Vincent wins the day vote? oh man would that be something
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xyzzy
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 3:22:30 AM | message detail
After sucking for 30 minutes, Sonic gains 100 votes in just 10 minutes!
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Supporter of Chun Li
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 3:26:11 AM | message detail
sweet, I have the ability to jinx Vincent.

Vincent's winning this match! he kicks ass!
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xyzzy
Gooper Blooper | Posted 10/26/2006 4:15:41 AM | message detail
I want the Noble Nine broken, just for the upset of it... but not Vincent over Sonic. No sir.

TRUST ME AND WE WILL ESCAPE FROM THE SI-TAY
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face it cjay i have the high ground i have powend you - ertyu
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/26/2006 4:35:57 AM | message detail
How'd Vinny Mac do in the beginning portion of the match yo
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HoorayProxies | Posted 10/26/2006 5:47:45 AM | message detail
God... I really hate the sprite round, some characters just look absolutely awful with it. I hate how he doesn't just use it in matches where it's warranted. Oh well... and I actually like Auron/Subby, it's probably not a good representation of the two, but the pic is nice.

As for the asses who are acting like this match was so insanely obvious and how anyone thought Vincent had a shot of winning, lol u. Seriously, it's 52-48, most people who thought Vincent would win thought he barely would, no one was calling him the favorite.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 6:24:02 AM | message detail
This match was obvious, because even if Vincent got the lead in the first hours, the voters that vote right now would kill him.

In 15 minutes, Sonic has almost gained 150 votes. He can still match Crono!
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Supporter of Chun Li
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/26/2006 6:28:12 AM | message detail
He's matching Crono by breaking 52% on a character that has likely boosted since last year. He's besting him if he sails over 53%.
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 6:46:58 AM | message detail
Ah the european vote, the time where Sonic increases his lead with Supersonic speed :D
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Supporter of Chun Li
Gooper Blooper | Posted 10/26/2006 6:51:18 AM | message detail
SONIC BOOST
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face it cjay i have the high ground i have powend you - ertyu
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/26/2006 7:41:14 AM | message detail
Hmm...this isn't exactly what I would have wanted from Sonic...but if he can hit 54% (unlikely? *shrug*), then I'm still liking my Sonic > Male bracket pick. I consider Sonic/Crono to be the male bracket finals. Even if MM survives Snake (lolololol), Sonic/Crono will CRUSH him. Hard.

Snake/Sonic/Crono is at least more debatable, though Sonic/Crono = winnar for me.
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MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/26/2006 7:48:31 AM | message detail
Next year I'd like to see Mega Man v Vincent.
I don't think we'll see the nobles being killed until then. -_-
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/26/2006 7:51:46 AM | message detail
So if Sonic matches or beats Crono's performance, what excuse are we going with?

SONIC BOOST!?

Vincent/Crono rSFF?

AC having been out and pretty much forgotten at this point?

TuRtLe
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49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/26/2006 7:53:37 AM | message detail
Would Squall being doing this well on Sonic?

KB
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I admit, Kyle Bowen's Social Bar and Lounge was the worst series of topics ever. Also, I hate Shadow Hearts.-10/21-10/28
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/26/2006 7:54:24 AM | message detail
No, Vincent is stronger than Squall
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 7:55:17 AM | message detail
So if Sonic matches or beats Crono's performance, what excuse are we going with?

That's very unlikely right now, but if then it just shows that Sonic is a god of the dayvote. Personally I think Vincent increasing is the best way to explain this match.
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Supporter of Chun Li
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/26/2006 7:56:08 AM | message detail
No, Vincent is stronger than Squall

Maybe I should be specific.

I too believe Vince > Squall.

Would Squall get 45% on Sonic?


KB
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I admit, Kyle Bowen's Social Bar and Lounge was the worst series of topics ever. Also, I hate Shadow Hearts.-10/21-10/28
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/26/2006 7:56:37 AM | message detail
Knuckles scored 46% on Squall, who is equal to Vincent 2005.

If that isn't proof that Vincent boosted like crazy this year, I don't know what is.
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/26/2006 8:00:28 AM | message detail
I dunno Smurf, Vincent VS Ganondorf went alomst exaclty as the X-Stats said. Ganondorf could be a little underrated in the 2005 stats, but....
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Supporter of Chun Li
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/26/2006 8:04:05 AM | message detail
Well look at how Zelda has boosted this year. Ganon likely recieved a similar boost.
I know it's odd to suggest that there is a string of boosts going on here as opposed to everybody remaining exactly the same, but it's possible.

Ganon = Tp/Wii hype. BOOST
Vincent = Doc/ AC . BOOST
Sonic = If the above are true, then... SONIC BOOST.

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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.