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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 406

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/25/2006 10:28:23 PM | message detail
So Yoshi outperforming Squall on Snake by a good margin is now confirmed <_<

TuRtLe
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49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Redtooth | Posted 10/25/2006 10:28:30 PM | message detail
I think Ceej should abandon the sprite "round" and just use sprites when the matchup calls for it - Mega Man/Ryu, for instance, would make a great Hadouken/Charge Shot sprite pic.

This is something I could agree with. Rather then have "themed" rounds, just having pics that work from battle to battle sounds good. Although Cjay does a good job with his self-imposed restraint, I think he'd could improve by removing said limit.

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/25/2006 10:28:37 PM | message detail
now I don't think it'll actually hurt her since her name is friggin' Zelda, but the picture itself is pretty bad.

Heh, Zelda might actually do better with an unrecognizable picture, thanks to the name factor. In fact, in a pictureless match, I might be tempted to take Zelda over Samus.

And HM is right, LttP Zelda is awesome. Plus she follows you around a bunch at the beginning of the game, so pretty much everyone who's played LttP (85% of the site) should recognize her.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
Haste_2 | Posted 10/25/2006 10:29:24 PM | message detail
Personally, I like those Round 3 pictures. One thing about this sprite round is that the background faces of the characters really stick out; I don't think anyone will get hurt much by their picture...I could be wrong. Auron/Sub-Zero is the best Round 2 pic EVAR, too. =p

At this time, Sonic has 53.43%, while Ganondorf had 49.96%, +3.5% for Sonic. At the 30 minute mark, Sonic had 54.52% while Ganondorf had 50.20%, +4.3% for Sonic. Can Sonic keep doing worse in relationship to Ganondorf, and lose?! Psh.

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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/25/2006 10:29:32 PM | message detail
KH Aeris sprite? Score!

TG
MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/25/2006 10:29:36 PM | message detail
I wonder if Ceej will actually forgo Solid **** for a MGS character model instead for once.

But then I'd love to see Yoshi overperform on Solid ****, so I hope he doesn't.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/25/2006 10:29:48 PM | message detail
So Yoshi outperforming Squall on Snake by a good margin is now confirmed <_<

That was already true because of SFF, but the picture in the background should lessen the effects of the sprite round, judging by Snake vs. Ryu.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/25/2006 10:31:48 PM | message detail
I just wanna see Yoshi knocking on the Noble Nine's door when the x-stats are done <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/25/2006 10:33:03 PM | message detail
I like the idea of themed rounds. Make things fun.

~*ST*~
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/25/2006 10:36:41 PM | message detail
Snake won't be as screwed as he was the last two years. The neutral white background and his recognizable face right behind the sprite will make things more even than the sprite pictures in 2004 and 2005 (especially 2004, where Snake looked like a piece of turd sprawled across some grainyass ground).
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/25/2006 10:39:53 PM | message detail
Snake gets 60% on Yoshi. Mega Man gets 52% on Sora. Book aaaaat. =p

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TehMissingLink | Posted 10/25/2006 10:44:26 PM | message detail
Hmm. I just realized that Zelda has only lost to Noble Nine characters.

Watch out, Aeris!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/25/2006 10:46:38 PM | message detail
Right now I'll call Yoshi to make at least 44% on Snake while Sora will break 45% on Mega Man.

Although I can see Snake fodderificating Yoshi and making it look like an SFF beatdown <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/25/2006 10:46:40 PM | message detail
More importantly, she's only lost to non-Nintendo/Square characters.

Watch out, Samus and Crono!
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
Chinballz | Posted 10/25/2006 10:53:18 PM | message detail
Yuna blends into her background like Ocelot. Chun Li over Yuna a possibility? I sure hope so, because my bracket and Guru contest standing depends on it.
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/25/2006 10:58:54 PM | message detail
So Yoshi outperforming Squall on Snake by a good margin is now confirmed <_<

Which sucks considering Squall would kick his ass in a match.


KB
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I admit, Kyle Bowen's Social Bar and Lounge was the worst series of topics ever. Also, I hate Shadow Hearts.-10/21-10/28
Haste_2 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:05:35 PM | message detail
Mega Man's expected % on Kratos: 64.01%
Auron's % on Alucard: 64.40%

:D

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FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:12:44 PM | message detail
Wow, those are awesome pictures, I really like them.
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TehMissingLink | Posted 10/25/2006 11:16:20 PM | message detail
How awesome would it be if Sonic and Vincent split the day vote?

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:19:46 PM | message detail
Vincent hasn't even won a 15 minute update yet (though he did get close, with a loss by 1 vote) during his best time, so I really doubt he'll split the day vote with Sonic.
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TehMissingLink | Posted 10/25/2006 11:20:56 PM | message detail
That sounds like a 15 minute update to me! Under 1000! =p

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:21:30 PM | message detail
I think Vincent can possibly keep this lead at or around 1000 until the morning vote hits, which would be quite the achievement.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:22:47 PM | message detail
Or maybe he'll even bring it down some. XD
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/25/2006 11:23:22 PM | message detail
And while Sonic should definitely get favored with the day vote, I don't think it's going to be ugly or anything. Tifa's tendencies don't really fall in line with other FFVII characters. Vincent's best time is definitely now, but he should hold up really well against Sonic's day vote. I really don't think he's going to win or anything, but keeping it really close (percentage-wise) by the end should be within his capability.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/25/2006 11:24:09 PM | message detail
Vincent VS Solid Snake, who ya got?
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:24:42 PM | message detail
snake, damnit
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:32:37 PM | message detail
And, even after that impressive initial cut, Vincent managed to lose the 15 minute update by six votes.
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Mustache...and green...
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/25/2006 11:42:51 PM | message detail
Oh thank goodness, the sprite round. Looks like my theory about Master Chief forcing the delay in 2005 may have been right (or maybe Ceej just doesn't want to deal with the massive amounts of whining in Snake/Mega Man).

I love that Zelda/Aeris picture. No excuses for Aeris if she loses, she's got all the intangibles there.

Similarly, barring Snake getting his head blasted off again there's no excuse for him against Mega Man. The ball's in Snake's corner, Mega Man has basically painted a target on him that says "UPSET ME"...if he's stronger he'll win, plain and simple.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/25/2006 11:44:51 PM | message detail
And Vincent is doing quite nicely here. Sonic should take off with the day vote, but Vinnie's making an impressive performance here. I don't think this tells us much about Sonic/Crono...maybe a slight edge to Crono, but that's more out of considering him the favorite since the beginning.
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zwong1 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:45:05 PM | message detail
According to last year performance, squall's strength was definitely close to the likes of Bowser and Vincent. Squall even had a slight KH2 boost this year. On the other hand, Ryu who was a great contender in the past dropped tremendously in his match against Bowser. Most agrue that Bowser had overperformed in that match however Ryu only break 45% on Rikku in the 1st round and i mean Rikku is definitely a midcarder. Just ask yourself, did Ryu strength drop or did Rikku and Bowser overperform. Btw, Ryu lost to Bowser in a score of 59-41.

In short, Squall was definitely much stronger than Ryu. Squall had improved to that point that he can be considered as one of the strongest nn9 member.

If you guys can say Squall vs Snake contain SFF factor, why not Ryu vs Megaman too. Many user says that they see no connection between those two(Ryu and MM). Lets us compare the SFF factors here.

Squall VS Snake (SFF factor)
1. They are on the same system. PS,PS2,PC

Megaman VS Ryu (SFF factor)
1.They are from the same company and they are known as capcom icon.
2.Their games are often on the same system. PS,GBA,GB,NES,ARC,PS2,SNES,PSP and etc.
3.They are even in the same games.

In short, Megaman vs Ryu definitely contain heavier SFF than Snake vs Squall.

Conclusion, if Snake can score 47.6 on Squall and Megaman can only score 48% on the much weaker opponent and SFF in his favour, the result is quite clear, Snake has a great chance of beating MM.

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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
zwong1 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:48:25 PM | message detail
I mean Ryu broke 55% not 45% on Rikku.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
transience | Posted 10/25/2006 11:48:48 PM | message detail
the idea of SFF is that we call it when the winning character overperforms. there's really nothing we can say about SFF in that match unless you think that Ryu would have done even better - which is something that would hurt to even think about. I highly doubt that Ryu "rSFFed" Mega Man - MVC SFF or SNES SFF just doesn't make sense. and I think at that point you're overanalyzing the match anyway.

MM just sucked it up vs. Ryu. simple as that.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 10/25/2006 11:50:53 PM | message detail
plus, once you hit that near-elite level, there's going to be a shared fanbase no matter what. Sonic and Mario have overlap. Zelda and Final Fantasy have overlap. Mega Man and Resident Evil have overlap.

the difference is that there has to be significant overlap and that the voters have to overwhelmingly take one side to make it look obvious. with Ryu vs. MM, it's not obvious at all, so I'd rather not call for anything just because MM performed under my expectations.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 10/25/2006 11:51:22 PM | message detail
and that was one sexy update for Vincent.
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xyzzy
zwong1 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:51:34 PM | message detail
That is why i wanted to say Megaman was declining in power. Even with SFF, Megaman did not overperform in that match.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
YoboD | Posted 10/25/2006 11:52:14 PM | message detail
So round 3 is sprite round?
Watch out Snake, Yoshi's gunning for ya!
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zwong1 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:52:36 PM | message detail
transience, so there is no SFF between Snake and Squall too, right.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
transience | Posted 10/25/2006 11:55:17 PM | message detail
the only reason Snake and Squall is called SFF is because we have prior evidence of Snake overperforming on Sora. plus, Snake already beat Squall with 65% in 2002 - either he boosted through the freaking roof in 2003 or something funky happened in 2002 as well. MGS and Square have shown their shared fanbase in the past and so it was a lot easier to spot. if we didn't have that, there'd be a lot of people screaming about Snake winning the main bracket right about now.
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xyzzy
zwong1 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:56:01 PM | message detail
Yoshi will perform quite well against Snake but definitely not to the extend of defeating him. If Bowser can't defeat Snake in the sprite round last year, i doubt yoshi can.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
transience | Posted 10/25/2006 11:56:56 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: Snake beats Yoshi worse than he beat Squall.
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xyzzy
zwong1 | Posted 10/25/2006 11:57:49 PM | message detail
transience, maybe i was overanalyzing , by the way, share your views on Yoshi vs snake and Snake vs Megaman.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/26/2006 12:00:23 AM | message detail
I'm definitely not feeling a Yoshi overperformance here. Sure we'll need to actually see the picture to confirm it, but these are sprites with very recognizable face shots as the background. The last time Snake got that kind of picture, it was during Snake/Ryu and I have heard very few people calling for Ryu overperforming significantly there. And that face shot wasn't very recognizable at all, this one should be much clearer.

I expect Snake to put most of this crap to rest in his match against Yoshi.
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zwong1 | Posted 10/26/2006 12:02:04 AM | message detail
Yeah, i saw the picture and the background face picture is definitely much clearer than in the past.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 12:03:51 AM | message detail
I almost expect an overperformance just because it's Yoshi. I also expect a Crono overperformance in round 3 because it's Auron. some things will never change.
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xyzzy
zwong1 | Posted 10/26/2006 12:04:33 AM | message detail
Why is Sonic known as the king of day votes.
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After his match with Dante, Yoshi will do respectable against Snake
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 12:06:20 AM | message detail
Sonic hasn't increased his lead in an hour plus here.. if Vincent somehow withstands Sonic's day vote it could be interesting. I don't think this really breaches the 1000 mark until 8am.
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xyzzy
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/26/2006 12:07:57 AM | message detail
Sonic absolutely buried Tifa with the day vote. I don't think Vincent will get hit as hard but expect Sonic to really take off once morning hits.

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Kaxon | Posted 10/26/2006 12:09:09 AM | message detail
Why is Sonic known as the king of day votes.

Sonic just does best during the day, specifically during the morning.
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TehMissingLink | Posted 10/26/2006 12:10:08 AM | message detail
Tifa has near opposite tendencies of most FFVII characters from what I've noticed. She almost completely bombs in the day time no matter who she's up against. Vincent should be able hang with Sonic much better with the day vote.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
transience | Posted 10/26/2006 12:10:41 AM | message detail
the morning actually got pushed back to the afternoon once school started though.. I wouldn't be amazed if this sat in triple digits until school let out.
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xyzzy