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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 406

therealmnm | Posted 10/25/2006 9:06:02 PM | message detail
That match pic is awesome. Go Sonic!
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
creativename | Posted 10/25/2006 9:06:33 PM | message detail
People, please DO NOT manually update during insta-updates :)
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MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/25/2006 9:06:45 PM | message detail
Fun Fact: The topic number has "31337" at the beginning.

Has anyone found "31337357" yet? Should've been made a few minutes ago.
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Hispanics 1 | Whites 5
Asians 4 | Blacks 3
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/25/2006 9:06:49 PM | message detail
Sonic the Hedgehog 56.19% 822
Vincent Valentine 43.81% 641
TOTAL VOTES 1463

Interesting stuff.

Ganondorf 54.43% 804
Vincent Valentine 45.57% 673
TOTAL VOTES 1477

Sonic lead -- 181
Ganondorf lead -- 131


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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
rpgapzx | Posted 10/25/2006 9:06:55 PM | message detail
Ganondorf 54.43% 804
Vincent Valentine 45.57% 673
TOTAL VOTES 1477
-131

Sonic the Hedgehog 56.19% 822
Vincent Valentine 43.81% 641
TOTAL VOTES 1463
-181

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Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex.
SC2K6: 55/56 // Today: Sonic // Leaderboard: 9th
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:07:04 PM | message detail
Ganondorf had a lead of 131 at the five minute mark.
Sonic has a lead of 181 at the five minute mark.

Vincent cut into Ganondorf's lead at the ten minute update. I think that's when we'll see if Vincent actually has a chance or not.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/25/2006 9:07:06 PM | message detail
From Big Bob Posted 10/26/2006 12:05:09 AM #047
Quick Question: What's the closest match percentage-wise where the loser didn't win an update?

I want to say Crono/Snake from 2002, but i'm honestly not sure.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:07:11 PM | message detail
At the 5 minute mark:

Ganon: 54.43%
Sonic: 56.19%

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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
rpgapzx | Posted 10/25/2006 9:07:55 PM | message detail
HM makes me look dumb and slow =(
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Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex.
SC2K6: 55/56 // Today: Sonic // Leaderboard: 9th
Janus5000 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:07:57 PM | message detail
Hay guyz Ganondorf was leading by 131 right now
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:08:02 PM | message detail
Wow, beaten not once but twice.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
charmander6000 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:08:02 PM | message detail
Nice start by Sonic and lol at Mega Man's prediction percent.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Kaxon | Posted 10/25/2006 9:08:12 PM | message detail
Who went crazy with pollupdate.php in the first five minutes? That's kind of annoying. creative, maybe you should disable that during the first five minutes so only the regular updates show up.
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....TCELES B HSUP
trannyscience | Posted 10/25/2006 9:08:24 PM | message detail
Ganon held a lead for a full hour though.. or at least, Vincent didn't start beating him until the early vote ended. I don't know if we can say much about this match until an hour passes.

god knows Sonic is better in the daytime than Ganon though... or at least, I would think he is.
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zizzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/25/2006 9:08:43 PM | message detail
If these percentages hold, I think it's safe to say that hyping Sonic to possibly lose this match was 100% ridiculous.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
HaRRicH | Posted 10/25/2006 9:08:53 PM | message detail
Sonic's better in the after-school vote than Ganon though, and probably the day-vote too (not for sure on that one).
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:09:02 PM | message detail
Wow. I look older than Auron and Sub-Zero.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
trannyscience | Posted 10/25/2006 9:09:24 PM | message detail
I was hesitant to post that link during Dante/Yoshi cause I was afraid people would abuse it.
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zizzy
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/25/2006 9:10:18 PM | message detail
QUIZ!

If Squall and Vince switched positions... would their match out comes have been much different?


KB
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I admit, Kyle Bowen's Social Bar and Lounge was the worst series of topics ever. Also, I hate Shadow Hearts.-10/21-10/28
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/25/2006 9:10:43 PM | message detail
Vincent did win by, like, 7000 against Ganon though. He wouldn't necessarily need all that to beat Sonic, though I really doubt anything comes of this.


Yeah. Vincent cut the percentage and not the lead.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
rpgapzx | Posted 10/25/2006 9:11:00 PM | message detail
Ganondorf 54.43% 804
Vincent Valentine 45.57% 673
TOTAL VOTES 1477
Ganon lead: 131

Ganondorf: 1298 51.22%
Vincent Valentine: 1236 48.78%
TOTAL VOTES: 2534
Ganon lead: 62

Sonic the Hedgehog 56.19% 822
Vincent Valentine 43.81% 641
TOTAL VOTES 1463
Sonic lead: 181

Sonic the Hedgehog 54.99% 1378
Vincent Valentine 45.01% 1128
TOTAL VOTES 2506
Sonic lead: 250


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Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex.
SC2K6: 55/56 // Today: Sonic // Leaderboard: 9th
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 10/25/2006 9:11:14 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
53-----10-------100.0000000
52-----90-------94.4444444
51-----193------93.2642487
50-----418------87.5598086
49-----663------89.4419306
48-----1038-----83.4296724
47-----1440-----83.6111111
46-----1856-----80.3340517
45-----2244-----78.2085561
44-----2670-----73.9325843
43-----2974-----71.2508406
42-----2913-----68.7607278
41-----2863-----61.2294796
40-----2717-----59.4037541
39-----2454-----54.8899756
38-----2322-----54.3927649
37-----2242-----48.3496878
36-----2100-----45.2380952
35-----1919-----45.2840021
34-----1624-----43.9039409
33-----1438-----42.0723227
32-----1271-----39.4177813
31-----1095-----37.2602740
30-----932------37.4463519
29-----684------37.4269006
28-----558------32.4372760
27-----476------37.8151261
26-----339------32.7433628
25-----264------26.8939394
24-----171------33.9181287
23-----114------29.8245614
22-----88-------31.8181818
21-----55-------36.3636364
20-----42-------35.7142857
19-----32-------34.3750000
18-----20-------35.0000000
17-----16-------18.7500000
16-----6--------0.0000000
15-----6--------0.0000000
14-----5--------0.0000000
13-----7--------0.0000000
12-----5--------20.0000000
11-----9--------0.0000000
10-----4--------0.0000000
9------9--------0.0000000
8------24-------4.1666667

Everybody with a score of 7 or lower got the match wrong.
Overall prediction percentage: 58.81%

Mega Man may be Noble Nine, but that didn't help the prediction percentage for this match very much. The -1s manage to go perfect and is the first group to do so in a while. The -2s and -3s manage to stay above 90, but things just go down from there.

Four people fell off the Top 50 today. plasmachannel, Tanman_103, moochamole and Afore_Notation did not have Mega Man advancing this round.
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Janus5000 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:11:31 PM | message detail
Sonic increases his lead by 69.

For comparison's sake (I'm definitely beaten to this one, though), Ganondorf's lead went down 69.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/25/2006 9:11:55 PM | message detail
Laffmo it's over.

Damn my suitemate for going to the bathroom to shave right before I was going to take my midnight shower.
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Hispanics 1 | Whites 5
Asians 4 | Blacks 3
Gaddswell | Posted 10/25/2006 9:11:59 PM | message detail
If Squall and Vince switched positions... would their match out comes have been much different?

I would say yes as FF7 > MGS > FF8 in the funky FF-MGS SFF chain.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/25/2006 9:12:05 PM | message detail
Vincent should definitely win tons of updates later tonight, which will ultimately make this match really close percentage-wise, but Sonic looks like he's going to win (SURPRISE, SURPRISE!)

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
andaca | Posted 10/25/2006 9:12:09 PM | message detail
Vincent will likely end up 47+ (Wow, does the board vote ever hate him), but these percentages aren't looking so hot for him to pull an actual win out here.
NClark128 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:13:05 PM | message detail
*sigh*

What, exactly, was it that made people think that Vincent would actually win?
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MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/25/2006 9:13:50 PM | message detail
What, exactly, was it that made people think that Vincent would actually win?

Since Ganondorf would obviously have beaten Sonic, it only makes sense that the guy who beat Ganondorf could, too.
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Hispanics 1 | Whites 5
Asians 4 | Blacks 3
Yesmar | Posted 10/25/2006 9:15:23 PM | message detail
From Big Bob Posted 10/26/2006 12:05:09 AM #047
Quick Question: What's the closest match percentage-wise where the loser didn't win an update?

I want to say Crono/Snake from 2002, but i'm honestly not sure.


If you mean that the winning entrant was in the lead throughout the match, then Donkey Kong Vs. Duck Hunt.

If you mean, just winning an update period, if it only just changed the percentage, I would guess Magus Vs. Ganondorf, Ganondorf Vs. Tidus or Tidus Vs. Shadow, although I have no actual idea.
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cyko | Posted 10/25/2006 9:15:43 PM | message detail

What, exactly, was it that made people think that Vincent would actually win?


my reason was that Vincent wasn't far behind Sonic in the stats and i figured that Dirge of Cerberus and Advent Children could give Vincent the boost he needed to pull off a narrow win. *sigh*

go Vincent!! keep it respectable, at least!


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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
rpgapzx | Posted 10/25/2006 9:15:48 PM | message detail
Last one I do:

Ganondorf 54.43% 804
Vincent Valentine 45.57% 673
TOTAL VOTES 1477
Ganon lead: 131

Ganondorf: 1298 51.22%
Vincent Valentine: 1236 48.78%
TOTAL VOTES: 2534
Ganon lead: 62

Ganondorf: 1768 50.17%
Vincent Valentine: 1756 49.83%
TOTAL VOTES: 3524
Ganon lead: 12

=============================

Sonic the Hedgehog 56.19% 822
Vincent Valentine 43.81% 641
TOTAL VOTES 1463
Sonic lead: 181

Sonic the Hedgehog 54.99% 1378
Vincent Valentine 45.01% 1128
TOTAL VOTES 2506
Sonic lead: 250

Sonic the Hedgehog 54.4% 1921
Vincent Valentine 45.6% 1610
TOTAL VOTES 3531
Sonic lead: 311

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Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex.
SC2K6: 55/56 // Today: Sonic // Leaderboard: 9th
trannyscience | Posted 10/25/2006 9:16:09 PM | message detail
don't start that crap - Vincent is doing great here. he looks like he'll win updates throughout the night and potentially be at 48-49% before the day vote knocks him down a percentage point or two. not bad, Vincent, I underestimated you two years in a row.

it's still early though. this could go anywhere once the board vote wears off.
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zizzy
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/25/2006 9:17:25 PM | message detail
Vincent should win many updates throughout the night and could possibly take the lead if it's as domineering as it was against Ganondorf. Of course, he definitely doesn't look great at winning here, but no one needs to be bringing up the idea of Vincent winning as ridiculous.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:17:50 PM | message detail
I think it's safe to say Vincent is the strongest non-noble nine character.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/25/2006 9:19:00 PM | message detail
unless DOC is just massive, I think it's safe to say that Snake/Squall had something Weird happen in it.
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zizzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/25/2006 9:19:16 PM | message detail
From TehMissingLink Posted 10/26/2006 12:17:25 AM #084
Vincent should win many updates throughout the night and could possibly take the lead if it's as domineering as it was against Ganondorf. Of course, he definitely doesn't look great at winning here, but no one needs to be bringing up the idea of Vincent winning as ridiculous.

Eh, it'll not be ridiculous if Vincent actually does something here. I could be wrong (hell, I hope I am), but I doubt it.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/25/2006 9:20:41 PM | message detail
And.... Sonic goes up. GG Vincent.
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Janus5000 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:20:52 PM | message detail
PERCENTAGE INCREASE WTF.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/25/2006 9:20:53 PM | message detail
Up 100. Good night, peeps.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
rpgapzx | Posted 10/25/2006 9:20:54 PM | message detail
Doesn't even cut percentage there.

-B

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Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex.
SC2K6: 55/56 // Today: Sonic // Leaderboard: 9th
cyko | Posted 10/25/2006 9:21:25 PM | message detail
; _ ;

poor Vincent...

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/25/2006 9:21:52 PM | message detail
This match is over once Sonics up 2000 and the day vote starts rolling in for him. I wont stop being nervous before then. >_>

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NClark128 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:22:13 PM | message detail
Just for the record, I agree that Vincent can keep it close and make it look respectable, but he won't win.

Especially if that last update is any indicator.
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ExThaNemesis | Posted 10/25/2006 9:22:53 PM | message detail
I stay alive in the guru contest, and I remain -5 for a day before I hit that awful -7.


*shakes fist at Zero*
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TehMissingLink | Posted 10/25/2006 9:23:29 PM | message detail
Vincent certainly isn't going to win, but this might end up being around 51% - 52% by the end of the match, depending on what Vincent does later tonight. It's just a matter of making it much closer than this -- and it certainly should given how the rest of the night is so different from the first hour.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/25/2006 9:26:55 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
HaRRicH | Posted 10/25/2006 9:27:22 PM | message detail
I see Vincent landing just above 47%, though he could get as high as 48% Any higher, and I'll grow curious of what the hell happened to Sonic's day-vote.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:29:42 PM | message detail
I think Sonic has a great chance at breaking 55% by the end of the match.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:30:02 PM | message detail
What, exactly, was it that made people think that Vincent would actually win?

Assuming the Ryu/MM result was legit and that the Ryu of 2006 = the Ryu of 2005, then MM would only be at 34.81% this year. This is the same MM who beat Sonic in that Contest, a Contest where Vince earned himself a value of 35.58%. And who has had the American release of AC, a stronger year overall year for Square, and DoC all potentially increasing his 2005 strength.

Looking at it that way, the upset certainly didn't seem all that unreasonable.

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