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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 405

janembaman | Posted 10/25/2006 8:08:06 AM | message detail
I hate when I agree with Smurf because it always makes me feel extreme, ignorant, and annoying...no matter how smart and reasonable I try to be, just the fact he is the way he is makes it hard to argue anymore.

Snake>Megaman is fine,but Smurf thinks even Sora can take down Megaman >_> (pre KHII Sora can't beat 2005 Ryu,stats wise.)
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laff
charmander6000 | Posted 10/25/2006 8:10:56 AM | message detail
Great match or GREATEST match?

More like THE greatest match ever. Snake will jump with a 3000 vote lead then Sonic will come out of nowhere with the morning/day vote and take the lead then Snake will use the last two hours trying to catch up to Sonic making this a Peach/Jill except with characters we care about 100x more.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Starion | Posted 10/25/2006 8:18:40 AM | message detail
Um, I don't care about Sonic. And both of them will most likely lose to Samus anyway.
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Now playing: New SMB | Queue: Okami | Waiting for: SMT:Devil Summoner, FF12, Castlevania:POR
Who Cares? | Posted 10/25/2006 8:19:13 AM | message detail
This is like...the best I've ever seen Street Fighter in the morning hours. Only dropping as low as .16% below his peak since the 6:35 mark. What does that say about Mega Man's morning vote?! >_>
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd)
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
Big Bob | Posted 10/25/2006 8:24:43 AM | message detail
Mega Man isn't outdoing Bowser's percentage?
Mega Man is so screwed.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2006 8:27:20 AM | message detail
I'll be honest, at this point in time, I'm not even 100% confident in Crono > Snake. If Snake continues to show off, I could start getting really worried.
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CB5 Points: 45/48, Current Oracle placement: 27/165
Now playing: Okami
Big Bob | Posted 10/25/2006 8:28:39 AM | message detail
I picked Sonic > Mega Man for the male bracket simply because I thought it would be so cool if they had a rematch and Sonic won.

Eh, what does it matter now? My bracket's dead anyway.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
Who Cares? | Posted 10/25/2006 8:30:56 AM | message detail
WHAT THE...Ryu just won an update! o_0
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd)
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/25/2006 8:31:02 AM | message detail
Bold Prediction: Sora outperforms Ryu on Mega Man while Snake makes Yoshi look terrible, but MM manages to beat Snake in their closest match yet.

TuRtLe
~~~
49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
janembaman | Posted 10/25/2006 8:40:30 AM | message detail
Stupid question-Why the hell I keep seeing "Vincent of Sonic????" topics?
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laff
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2006 8:41:10 AM | message detail
Because the Sonic/Vincent match is tomorrow.
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CB5 Points: 45/48, Current Oracle placement: 27/165
Now playing: Okami
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/25/2006 8:42:16 AM | message detail
I don't think this match tells us anything. 3 other characters of the noble nine have faced Ryu and Bowser did better than all of them. Snake's match against Squall tells us nothng either. But anyone who considered Snake > Megaman a lock, needs to be reminded that Megaman has already won over him, twice.

Anything can happen. So lets focus about the great news that Ryu is back in the near elite tier. :D
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Supporter of Ryu.
janembaman | Posted 10/25/2006 8:42:21 AM | message detail
I know
But Sonic over Vincent is a clear lock
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laff
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/25/2006 8:45:32 AM | message detail
And looks like the trend holds up again. This means that Sonic is going to destroy Vincent tomorrow while Kirby either loses, or goes 50/50 with Luigi <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2006 8:46:59 AM | message detail
Mega Man beat Snake twice two years ago. When there were far less votes. I said it before earlier, but the fact that these matches garner almost twice as many votes as those matches years ago works in the favor of Snake far more than it does Mega Man. Snake winning isn't a lock anymore, but I'd go as far to say that at this point in time, Snake is the favorite.
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CB5 Points: 45/48, Current Oracle placement: 27/165
Now playing: Okami
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/25/2006 8:48:27 AM | message detail
Megaman isn't doing bad in the morning hours, when you consider that he went from losing .10% every 10 minutes to, well, not losing any >_>

It's easier for someone to go up with the morning vote when the % has already stablized. But that % was far from stabilizing.

Still, I could definitely have gone for more...
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
janembaman | Posted 10/25/2006 8:49:17 AM | message detail
btw,I feel the next round is going to be boring
Samus>Rikku
Tifa>Peach
Zelda>Aeris
Yuna>Chun Li
Snake>Yoshi
Megaman>Sora
Sonic>Kirby/Luigi
Crono>Auron

Zelda-Aeris is the only match that isn't a lock
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laff
Starion | Posted 10/25/2006 8:52:54 AM | message detail
Megaman isn't doing bad in the morning hours, when you consider that he went from losing .10% every 10 minutes to, well, not losing any >_>

It kinda is when he should be getting consistent 60+% in the morning and facing an SF related opponent. Unless people actually expected him to be weaker pre-contest?

As for Zelda-Aeris, why isn't it a lock? Zelda should win that match with ease.
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Now playing: New SMB | Queue: Okami | Waiting for: SMT:Devil Summoner, FF12, Castlevania:POR
voltch | Posted 10/25/2006 8:53:43 AM | message detail
how did snake come from the bottom of the noble nine to a beast?

none of his major new games are out yet.
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/25/2006 8:53:47 AM | message detail
My goodness, Ryu is holding up like a stud here. He could be comfortably over 43% by the time the after school vote gets here, and judging by the extremely stable morning vote, I'm not very confident in Mega Man's ability to make strides with it.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/25/2006 8:56:26 AM | message detail
Hoping for 60%+ updates in the morning when he was barely getting 50% updates in the night is a little overambitious. I mean, a shift of 10% with voting patterns would have to be some kind of record. Ryu sucks, but I wouldn't expect that unless he was actually going up against someone with a good morning vote. I think Megaman is generally pegged as average
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Jawsepito | Posted 10/25/2006 9:08:58 AM | message detail
Until Snake triples Yoshi, I'm not saying he's a lock over Mega Man. I forgot who said this but you just don't base a prediction of a character's performance on his opponent's weakness. Not that Snake didn't impress against Soma and Squall. Still, I think Mega Man will beat Snake but it will be close.
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still waiting, still wailing
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/25/2006 9:10:58 AM | message detail
This is funny as all hell. Is there anyone that doesn't want to see Snake clown Mega Man in two rounds?

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/25/2006 9:11:30 AM | message detail
Solid will also look more like gold when Sora does much better against Mega Man than he did against Solid last year, over-performance or not (and it'll be interesting to see how Solid does against Yoshi, too).

Heh, I didn't notice that Snake and Mega Man will face the other's Sweet Sixteen opponent from last year. Good find.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/25/2006 9:14:09 AM | message detail
And I'm not convinced Mega Man will make large strides with the after school vote. He looked just as bad or worse as Ryu did with it against Axel. Besides, Ryu's faulty point is the morning point, and...he just won an update 45 minutes ago.

...Wow. As I mentioned before, I'm not sure whether I should be more impressed with Ryu or more disappointed in Mega Man.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/25/2006 9:17:08 AM | message detail
Probably both, though Ryu getting 42-43% against non-Squintendo NN members is his MO.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/25/2006 9:21:18 AM | message detail
So..

Ryu/Zero
Leon Kennedy/Aeris

...Who you got?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/25/2006 9:22:14 AM | message detail
Oh wow, um.... Zero and Aeris, I guess.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/25/2006 9:26:08 AM | message detail
Ryu did considerably worse against Kratos after school than he did in the morning. Ryu was getting about 64% in the night(though there was one hour in the night where he only got about 60%. And it happened in between his 64% hours. I have no idea what the hell happened there), then he was only getting about 57-58% in the morning, and finally, he only got about 52-53% after school let out.

Interestingly, where most people see a short morning vote and then start reverting back to night-time matches, Kratos continues the 57-58% "morning vote" change all the way until school let out.

It seems like that may happen here for Megaman against Ryu as well since Ryu hasn't started to make anymore progress and it's already past noon. I guess it's just something to do with Ryu. And he's lucky too, since going up to about 57% of the vote isn't that impressive to begin with. If he fell off again it would be bad news >_>
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/25/2006 9:27:30 AM | message detail
Well, Kratos is expected to be more of an after school monster anyway. In general, the morning vote is where SF struggles.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/25/2006 9:33:23 AM | message detail
Mega Man is looking about as good to beat Snake right now as Crono was to beat Mario after round 3 in 2k5. MM can certainly win, yes, but he's not the favorite anymore.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/25/2006 9:41:46 AM | message detail
Assume Snake and Mega Man get relatively the same percentage on Yoshi and Sora, respectively (within a percent of each other). Who do you favor, and by how much?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
consolefreak | Posted 10/25/2006 9:48:32 AM | message detail
I forgot who said this but you just don't base a prediction of a character's performance on his opponent's weakness.

You do, actually. 'Weakness' is only a relative term. Resident Evil may look weak when it is up against Final Fantasy, but when it is up against Shadow Hearts it will look strong. An opponent's strength, or weakness, is just as important as your own in deciding the outcome of any battle.

Assume Snake and Mega Man get relatively the same percentage on Yoshi and Sora, respectively (within a percent of each other). Who do you favor, and by how much?

Since I wouldn't expect anything fishy in either of those matches (unless it's sprite round), you're basically asking what Sora would get on Yoshi, no? MM wins 53%ish.

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CB: 50/54. Today: Ryu vs. Mega Man. Tomorrow: Sonic vs. Vincent.
BDawg | Posted 10/25/2006 9:51:20 AM | message detail
Good grief I'm sure this has been beaten into the ground (I'll go back and read some) but I log on click on results and am like HOLY CRAP. Yeah I went to bed early but it was still 61/39 then and although I figured Ryu would bring it down what happened to the horrible SF morning vote? And also I am GLAD Ryu has returned to form, that Bowser match was very disappointing last year. Bowser really made for some crazy results last year, I still don't know what this means for Kirby.
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Should I start running now?
consolefreak | Posted 10/25/2006 9:51:40 AM | message detail
And Snake's looking good for the male bracket here. Or at least > MM. Now only Vincent needs to win tomorrow, and my bracket will be back in contention >_>
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CB: 50/54. Today: Ryu vs. Mega Man. Tomorrow: Sonic vs. Vincent.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:53:07 AM | message detail
Looks to me like Bowser was fairly overrated last year. Where that puts Kirby, though, I'm not sure.
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CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165
Now playing: Okami
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/25/2006 9:54:10 AM | message detail
Assume Snake and Mega Man get relatively the same percentage on Yoshi and Sora, respectively (within a percent of each other). Who do you favor, and by how much?

Snake. I'd take Yoshi with ~52% over Sora.

Also, people assuming this match automatically means Ryu has "returned to form" are irritating. He's had reason to be overrated for the last four years. I doubt he'd suddenly become a beast in 2k6 for no reason at all.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/25/2006 9:55:12 AM | message detail
And Snake's looking good for the male bracket here."


Too bad Mega Man being weak doesn't make Crono go away, eh?

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Can't think of a good sig.
consolefreak | Posted 10/25/2006 9:55:58 AM | message detail
Too bad Mega Man being weak doesn't make Crono go away, eh?

Snake's been looking mighty strong as well though :-)
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CB: 50/54. Today: Ryu vs. Mega Man. Tomorrow: Sonic vs. Vincent.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2006 9:56:38 AM | message detail
Depending on how Crono preforms against Bowser, I may really start worrying about Snake winning the male bracket.
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CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165
Now playing: Okami
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/25/2006 10:33:23 AM | message detail
Hmm...last year, MM knocked .15% off of Crono with the after school vote, and had most of it taken back later in the day. I'm starting to think that Ryu might be able to stay above 43%, or at least 42%.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
HaRRicH | Posted 10/25/2006 10:36:25 AM | message detail
Mega Man's gonna go all Master Hand on Ryu in about an hour, just you wait...well...nah, ****, he ain't.


This is funny as all hell. Is there anyone that doesn't want to see Snake clown Mega Man in two rounds?

Both are two of my favorites, and Solid deserves it...but my vote'll probably go to Mega Man again unless I can find a copy of MGS:TTS before the match (STILL can't find it anywhere).
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http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/25/2006 10:39:47 AM | message detail
...Congrats, Mega Man, you have reached a new level of disappointment by being able to increase like mad during Ryu's worst time.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
BDawg | Posted 10/25/2006 10:45:08 AM | message detail
Well you can say Ryu is overrated all you want. But the fact is no one has ever put up 60% on him and he hasn't faced the crap competition that let Gordon stay in that category for so long. Sure Mega isn't looking good but to say this doesn't mean anything good for Ryu is ridiculous. And heck I guess it breathes at least a little life into Yuna/Chun Li where I assumed Chun was all but dead.
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Should I start running now?
voltch | Posted 10/25/2006 10:47:50 AM | message detail
chun-li is sill dead.
square is a different ballgame compared to capcom.
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/25/2006 10:49:56 AM | message detail
And heck I guess it breathes at least a little life into Yuna/Chun Li where I assumed Chun was all but dead.

...You must've forgot Yuna's two dominative performances and Chun-Li's, uh, 55/45 with Lara Croft. That doesn't breathe any sort of life into that match, not that I know why people thought that match ever had a shot at being something interesting.

And while Ryu does look good here, I'm almost convinced this is far more of Mega Man disappointing than anything else. Not being able to get 70% on Axel and now only managing to lead by some 8000 votes against Ryu is far from impressive. This is definitely not the Mega Man I remember from previous years at the very least.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
rpgapzx | Posted 10/25/2006 10:51:46 AM | message detail
All of this bandwagonning only reminds me of FF>LoZ.

So fickle, Board 8.
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Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex.
SC2K6: 53/54 // Today: Megaman // Leaderboard: 9th
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/25/2006 10:52:37 AM | message detail
Hey, I had Snake > Mega Man before it was cool.
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CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165
Now playing: Okami
rpgapzx | Posted 10/25/2006 10:56:33 AM | message detail
I speak and MM knocks a 61% update. Justice is served.

-B

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Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex.
SC2K6: 53/54 // Today: Megaman // Leaderboard: 9th
BDawg | Posted 10/25/2006 11:03:57 AM | message detail
I didn't say Chun Li was favorite but beating "Roll over and die" and "Joanna Fodder" does not give you a free pass. And well people were saying something about a Lara game, I mean it's just something to think about.
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Should I start running now?