GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 404
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 11:25:16 PM | message detail |
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Constant Kratos ends up with MM getting his ass kicked by everyone
under the sun eight ways 'till Sunday, so I'll assume you mean Kratos
adjusted through Sora 2k4. <_< Mega Man gets 33.47 going by that, just between Tifa and Dante. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/24/2006 11:25:23 PM | message detail |
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Man, it's nice to see MM underperforming. Snake > MM would just about make up for Luigi > Zero. --- 99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig |
| Janus5000 | Posted 10/24/2006 11:26:21 PM | message detail |
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It'd be funny if MM almost lost to Sora and still beat Snake. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4 |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 11:26:29 PM | message detail |
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For the hell of it, if Bowser is overrated to the extent that a
constant Leon implies and you adjust Ryu through that, Mega Man wins
against Sora with 50.13%. Mega Man gets 33.47 going by that, just between Tifa and Dante. This is why you don't hold Leon and Kratos constant. =p --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/24/2006 11:28:29 PM | message detail |
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Solid Snake 46.5% 55322 Mega Man 53.5% 63639 TOTAL VOTES 118961 Mega Man 57.19% 50116 Solid Snake 42.81% 37517 TOTAL VOTES 87633 Now I know we're aware of these results, but I think they should be directly posted whenever talk of Snake > Mega Man arises. These aren't exactly close matches we're looking to overturn. Axel is from KH2 and Ryu had a bad showing against Bowser. Just like KOS had a bad showing last year and rebounded, Ryu looks to be doing the same. Snake had an untested Soma Cruz and a match which has been shown in the past to be potentially affected by SFF. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. --- Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 11:29:11 PM | message detail |
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Though it'd be weird if Ryu and KOS-MOS 2k5 were both flukes...that
certainly makes Aeris and MM look a lot better, that's for certain. We
should all keep in mind that if MM was getting this percentage last
year, it'd probably be impressive to us. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 11:30:43 PM | message detail |
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MM is looking to equal Bowser's performance against Ryu. Snake got a
sprite picture vs. Bowser and still won the match and has reasons to
increase. yeah, I'd say there's a good reason for that bandwagon to exist - in fact, MM having won those two matches are about the only defence one has for thinking he'll pull off a third win. which is fine, but remember what happened in Crono/Mario. --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 11:31:08 PM | message detail |
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I don't give a damn by how much MM beat Snake in the past, because he's only projected to beat him with a little over 52% now.. We've seen bigger shifts than that...the only thing you accomplish by posting that is sounding defensive. =P --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| Lopen | Posted 10/24/2006 11:32:36 PM | message detail |
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Psh. Ryu was SFFed by Bowser! I stand by that crazy theory to the grave! (Though Ryu should've SFFed him, he's clearly the favorite in the Mario spinoffs!) --- Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 11:33:16 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 11:33:51 PM | message detail |
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*hums MGS theme* --- CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165 Now playing: Okami |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 11:35:24 PM | message detail |
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Aeris 2k3 actually doesn't look that great no matter what KOS-MOS you use. Aeris 2k3 v. KOS-MOS 2k3 -- 65.01% Aeris 2k3 v. KOS-MOS 2k4 -- 63.06% Aeris 2k3 v. KOS-MOS 2k5 -- 67.54% Now Aeris 2k2 on the other hand... Aeris 2k2 v. KOS-MOS 2k3 -- 62.50% Aeris 2k2 v. KOS-MOS 2k4 -- 60.41% Aeris 2k2 v. KOS-MOS 2k5 -- 65.21% --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 11:37:36 PM | message detail |
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KOS-MOS getting a lil' boost from her 2k4 value thanks to XS3 sets
things straight, though I admit that's a stretch (just like it's a
stretch for this NOT to be a bad match for MM so far). --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 11:38:57 PM | message detail |
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I'm not convinced a game that sold some 80,000 copies in one month is
going to do much of anything. But Aeris's best case scenario is that
she's equal to her old self in 2003. That's still, for the record, below Zelda 2k5 -- and Zelda 2k6 looks even stronger. --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 11:40:34 PM | message detail |
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man, we're gonna have a kickass week of matches at the end of this contest: Mega Man/Snake Crono/Sonic Samus/Zelda (not really kickass, though the percentage is interesting) MM/Snake/Crono/Sonic winners Samus/? and that's not counting the battle royale. --- xyzzy |
| Ed Bellis | Posted 10/24/2006 11:42:06 PM | message detail |
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I've always been the most excited about the end of this contest than
any other part of it - the Noble Nine get more interested matchups this
year than ever before, what with the cramped male bracket and all. Plus
the Battle Royale - not quite sure how that'll go. A character poll run
like the Poll of the Day? Shenanigans! --- This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy! |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 11:43:25 PM | message detail |
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I can't wait to see how people bracket vote! Crono is so taking the early lead in the battle royale --- xyzzy |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 11:44:38 PM | message detail |
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Zelda 2k5 v. Aeris 2k3 -- 51.33% Zelda 2k6 (1% boost) v. Aeris 2k3 -- 52.73% Zelda 2k6 (2% boost) v. Aeris 2k3 -- 54.06% Zelda 2k5 v. Aeris 2k2 -- 54.58% Zelda 2k6 (1% boost) v. Aeris 2k2 -- 55.89% Zelda 2k6 (2% boost) v. Aeris 2k2 -- 57.12% Do you believe? =p --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| Redtooth | Posted 10/24/2006 11:45:13 PM | message detail |
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More like Crono is so taking the battle royale. --- Z1mZum>Redtooth Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7 |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/24/2006 11:45:20 PM | message detail |
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MM is looking to equal Bowser's performance against Ryu. Snake got a
sprite picture vs. Bowser and still won the match and has reasons to
increase. I've never put much stock into pictures, even for snake, though I'm more concessive there. He won comfortably, yeah, but reasons to increase? The number of people believing his e3 hype doesn't actually make it a valid reason for him to increase. Hype is still just hype, after all. yeah, I'd say there's a good reason for that bandwagon to exist - in fact, MM having won those two matches are about the only defence one has for thinking he'll pull off a third win. which is fine, but remember what happened in Crono/Mario. Yeah, and in matches that really aren't that close, especially the more recent one, that's a pretty solid defense, in my opinion. The two years Mario won before losing his third match to Crono were both 50.05 wins, which aren't exactly that solid. This isn't a Mario/Crono situation. I don't give a damn by how much MM beat Snake in the past, because he's only projected to beat him with a little over 52% now.. We've seen bigger shifts than that...the only thing you accomplish by posting that is sounding defensive. =P I don't think we've ever seen a situation where a character won with 57% of the vote and then lost to that same opponent in two years. I'd rather wait until next round's performances before I start getting worried, but then, even those aren't going to tell us much. Both characters are going to be facing characters the other faced last year, except last year they were both sff matches. Isn't that something? --- Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 11:47:41 PM | message detail |
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Higher votals are going to favor Snake a LOT more than they favor Mega Man. --- CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165 Now playing: Okami |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 11:55:22 PM | message detail |
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man, MM is going to be doing well to just get back to this percentage. 52% updates? --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 11:56:56 PM | message detail |
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I've never put much stock into pictures, even for snake, though I'm
more concessive there. He won comfortably, yeah, but reasons to
increase? The number of people believing his e3 hype doesn't actually
make it a valid reason for him to increase. Hype is still just hype,
after all. Try MGS3, MGA, and MGS3: Subsistence. This isn't a Mario/Crono situation. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1767 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2128 ...yeah, right. I don't think we've ever seen a situation where a character won with 57% of the vote and then lost to that same opponent in two years. That's because we (thankfully) don't get that many rematches between characters, particularly those in dominating wins. But we've seen plenty of equal shifts within the stats, and I doubt there's a single person that takes Gordon Freeman to lose to Tina Armstrong today. I still give MM the favorite position as I always have. The two wins he has demands it. But this is very simple for me. When I look at Snake's first two rounds, I see two impressive wins. I look at Mega Man and I see two disappointing wins. Trying to twist it any other way is just spin control. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| Redtooth | Posted 10/24/2006 11:57:59 PM | message detail |
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Wow, that was impressive on Ryu. I'm willing to bet he has at least one more of those 48ish updates in him. Go Ryu! --- Z1mZum>Redtooth Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7 |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 11:58:22 PM | message detail |
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Mega Man is looking really lousy here. --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| transience | Posted 10/25/2006 12:00:33 AM | message detail |
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the later this gets, the more likely it is that Ryu will win an update. ..you know, I'd laugh if Bowser really did overperform, we underestimated Axel and MM blows out Snake even harder than before. that'd kill me. ..but that would also mean that Kratos has some serious strength, strength he didn't have last year. I guess it would make everyone's Kratos > POP thoughts look right though! --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/25/2006 12:03:12 AM | message detail |
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..you know, I'd laugh if Bowser really did overperform, we underestimated Axel and MM blows out Snake even harder than before. that'd kill me. No, you're thinking of me. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| Redtooth | Posted 10/25/2006 12:03:15 AM | message detail |
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But what if Kirby blows out Luigi and pushes something insanely high against Sonic? PoP>Kratos again! --- Z1mZum>Redtooth Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7 |
| transience | Posted 10/25/2006 12:03:56 AM | message detail |
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nah, if I was thinking of you I'd have it happen, have Cloud > Link happen and Aeris would lose to Zelda. --- xyzzy |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/25/2006 12:06:24 AM | message detail |
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And Ryu just won an update. Wow. --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| Aprosenf | Posted 10/25/2006 12:07:17 AM | message detail |
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..you know, I'd laugh if Bowser really did overperform, we
underestimated Axel and MM blows out Snake even harder than before.
that'd kill me. That would make me very, very happy, since I have Mega Man > Sonic in my bracket. And did this text box in which I'm typing my message suddenly get a lot wider? --- If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. Then try to find someone whose life has given them vodka. |
| janembaman | Posted 10/25/2006 12:07:30 AM | message detail |
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WTH Megaman,how Ryu won an update... --- laff |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/25/2006 12:08:08 AM | message detail |
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I think Ryu won less than ten updates against Bowser. And the most he
won one by was around 8 votes, in the very last update of the match.
Every other one was by a single vote or two. I'm feeling Bowser had to overperform here...even if MM has lost a step, I can't see him being this bad. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| Redtooth | Posted 10/25/2006 12:08:48 AM | message detail |
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COMEBACK TI*gets shot* --- Z1mZum>Redtooth Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7 |
| Kaxon | Posted 10/25/2006 12:12:31 AM | message detail |
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http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/7016/untitleden4.jpg Make it happen, CJayC. Nah, what Ceej needs to make happen looks a little more like this... http://oraclechallenge.com/kaxon/cb559.jpg --- ....TCELES B HSUP |
| transience | Posted 10/25/2006 12:12:32 AM | message detail |
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I had Mega Man as my turd of the round in round 1 until the last day..
I just didn't feel comfortable calling him a dud against an unknown, no
matter how bad the performance looked. this, though? Ryu is one of the most reliable characters we have and MM is still sucking it up. I really don't buy a Bowser overperformance, it puts characters like Rikku and Kratos too high. this is all Mega Man. --- xyzzy |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/25/2006 12:14:16 AM | message detail |
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Mega Man is just really sucking it up
hard right now. Pulling mid-50s right now won't exactly bode well for
him for however many more hours he has left until the morning vote
arrives. And I have trouble buying a Bowser overperformance, but
regardless of what happened there, Mega Man is very disappointing here. --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/25/2006 12:15:08 AM | message detail |
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Try MGS3, MGA, and MGS3: Subsistence. I'll take my chances with them. MGS3 wasn't out as of the last Snake/Mega encounter? That's the only one I'd be really worried about if that were true. This isn't a Mario/Crono situation. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1767 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2128 ...yeah, right. Mario had already had two close matches by the time his third win rolled around. It was close match, close match, win for Crono, win for Mario. This would be win for Mega Man, big win for Mega Man, win for Snake. Those aren't the same. But we've seen plenty of equal shifts within the stats, and I doubt there's a single person that takes Gordon Freeman to lose to Tina Armstrong today. Yeah, but not from characters who've already fought, and that's an important distinction. Gordon/Tina is one example, but are you really going to take Knuckles over Snake next time they meet? Sometimes things change, and othertimes things don't. Yoshi/Luigi might be a better example for me to use. Luigi might get stronger than Yoshi, but do you really think the group of voters changes that much to skew a fairly decided result? I still give MM the favorite position as I always have. The two wins he has demands it. But this is very simple for me. When I look at Snake's first two rounds, I see two impressive wins. I look at Mega Man and I see two disappointing wins. Trying to twist it any other way is just spin control. Soma's untested. Playstation SFF. KH2 character, and don't even include bad match last year for Ryu, if you aren't willing. You can look at the wins at face value, but there's obviously more to the picture, which merits a bit more than being termed spin control. --- Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest. |
| transience | Posted 10/25/2006 12:16:43 AM | message detail |
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playstation SFF? :) --- xyzzy |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/25/2006 12:17:54 AM | message detail |
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They're not? Whichever is the screwy term for it, then. (and it was
still leagues better than the last time Squall/Snake occurred (which in
retrospect...doesn't help my case!)) --- Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest. |
| janembaman | Posted 10/25/2006 12:22:25 AM | message detail |
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What are you guys talking about...that SHOULD be Megaman/Snake match pic http://img97.imageshack.us/img97/9514/megasnakeyi6.png --- laff |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/25/2006 12:22:42 AM | message detail |
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MGS3 wasn't out as of the last Snake/Mega encounter? No, it wasn't. Mario had already had two close matches by the time his third win rolled around. It was close match, close match, win for Crono, win for Mario. This would be win for Mega Man, big win for Mega Man, win for Snake. Those aren't the same. Mario/Crono has happened every year since the contest was created. Snake/Mega Man has happened twice, and we haven't seen it in a year. Mario/Crono 2k4 to 2k5 had just as big a shift as what Snake needs, and neither had any notable releases -- just a voter shift. Yeah, but not from characters who've already fought, and that's an important distinction. Gordon/Tina is one example, but are you really going to take Knuckles over Snake next time they meet? Because comparing Snake/Knuckles to Snake/Mega Man makes so much sense. Sometimes things change, and othertimes things don't. Yoshi/Luigi might be a better example for me to use. Luigi might get stronger than Yoshi, but do you really think the group of voters changes that much to skew a fairly decided result? ...Yoshi and Luigi inherently entail SFF Exactly how overlapping do you think Snake and MM's fanbases are? Soma's untested. Spin. Playstation SFF. Spin. KH2 character, Spin. and don't even include bad match last year for Ryu, if you aren't willing. ...wha? You can look at the wins at face value, but there's obviously more to the picture, which merits a bit more than being termed spin control. There's only 'more' if you choose to see 'more'. I'm not going to argue this with you, spin doctor, I'd rather wait for the match. Mega Man's still the favorite in my eyes, but all you seem intent on doing is downplaying Snake's chances. That about says it all to me. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/25/2006 12:26:54 AM | message detail |
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When does the morning vote usually begin on a school day? I'm curious
as to how much longer Mega Man has to take a beating with these near
50/50 updates. --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| transience | Posted 10/25/2006 12:28:25 AM | message detail |
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about three more hours.. then we get to Ryu's hideous morning vote. --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/25/2006 12:30:25 AM | message detail |
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I always thought of the morning vote as being at 8:00 am EST, though I
never follow the trends too closely there. Ryu had better shine as best
he can here, though, because as tranny said it'll all be a faint memory
once we hit the morning. Good Lord, is SF ever awful in the morning... --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/25/2006 12:32:46 AM | message detail |
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Ryu has taken about 1% off of Mega Man's percentage since the first hour. If he did that for three more hours...ouch! --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| transience | Posted 10/25/2006 12:34:48 AM | message detail |
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well, part of the reason MM is bleeding so badly is because he's so
damn strong during the early vote. you can look it up, he's always done
the best during those hours - Link, Sonic, anyone. once the actual
night vote started, he was so high that he had nowhere to go but down.
it's kind of similar to what happened to Yoshi after that first hour
ended, only on a much bigger scale and with a character with a much
better night vote. --- xyzzy |
| SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/25/2006 12:36:02 AM | message detail |
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Hmm. If only Dante had won or I had picked Yoshi... my Snake > Mega upset would be sweeet. Although, I'm thinking right now that Snake might be the bracket favorite in that match... --- ~*Ex-Tha*~ I live for this. You live for this. The whole world lives for this! Watch the World Series, on FOX! |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/25/2006 12:36:51 AM | message detail |
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Hello there 50/50 update! --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| transience | Posted 10/25/2006 12:37:02 AM | message detail |
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he definitely will be.. MM has never been known for great prediction percentages and Snake is. --- xyzzy |
