GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 404
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:00:27 PM | message detail |
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I can see Ryu bringing it down all the way to 58% and then with the day vote Mega Man gets over 61%. In other news I would love to see Ryu outdo Sora on Mega Man. --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/24/2006 10:10:53 PM | message detail |
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Yeah...being mainstream seems to have to do little with the voting
tendancies. You'll need more complex reasoning. Gordon Freeman, Street
Fighter, Metal Gear, Dante, RE, Mega Man, Castlevania...they're all
night-vote getters. Kratos, Master Chief, Lara Croft, Prince of Persia
for the day... hrm, it seems like non-Nintendo/Square games do better
in the NIGHT, generally. I never realized that. Look at it this way, what's popular in the GameFAQs mainstream will have a stronger day vote. Games like Final Fantasy or Nintendo. The night vote will go to older series, or series that would be enjoyed more by an older crowd, which is why Final Fantasy still has a pretty good night vote along with Street Fighter and Castlevania. Mainstream characters get the day vote due to recognizability more than anything, which is why Master Chief would relatively bomb the day vote to someone like Mario or Sonic. Vote swings are relative to overall popularity, so to say Mega Man lost the day vote to Axel points to him doing bad with it today is nonsense, especially since Street Fighter has always had a terrible day vote. When looking at past voting trends, I tend to not really use matches between unrelated characters to the current match. Basically, I wouldn't use Cloud/Link to predict a match like Snake/Squall, despite Cloud and Squall both being male leads of PS1 FFs. Unless of course one character has a proven trend that holds steady in almost every match, like Street Fighter's terrible day vote and MC's pure domination. Today, I expect things to swing noticeably as the more recognizable (to the younger crowd) Mega Man gains during the day. Street Fighter sucks with the day vote because a majority of the day voters are young, and weren't around for Street Fighter's heyday. TuRtLe ~~~ 43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:14:30 PM | message detail |
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...And these young day voters were around for Mega Man 2 and 3 in the late 80s? Not that Mega Man isn't going to win the day vote, but that's some downright terrible logic. The latest you can peg MM's best days are the introduction of the X series on the SNES, which happened around the same time as SFII. --- Mustache...and green... http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:16:02 PM | message detail |
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Worst update ever. --- The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD Coming October 3, 2006 |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 10:20:30 PM | message detail |
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to be fair, people like more than just MM2 and 3. when I worked with
kids a few years ago, people would play the BN games all the time. but anyway, here's a look at MM's day votes from 2k5: - went even with Conker - gained 1.5% on Leon Kennedy (pre-PS2 release) - gained maybe half a percent on Yoshi, though that's a SFF match - lost a fraction of a percent to Sonic, though he lost a full percent in four hours with the afterschool vote - gained maybe half a percent vs. Crono Ryu, on the other hand, went perfectly even with Rikku during the day. --- xyzzy |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/24/2006 10:22:58 PM | message detail |
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I'm off to make the next topic and put that new link in. ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 10:23:07 PM | message detail |
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*looks at poll* Uh crap another bad prediction. >_< Also uh MM better hope for the sprite round I think. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:36:30 PM | message detail |
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Also uh MM better hope for the sprite round I think. http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/7016/untitleden4.jpg Make it happen, CJayC. --- The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD Coming October 3, 2006 |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:39:05 PM | message detail |
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Ryu just told Mega Man to go **** himself. --- CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165 Now playing: Okami |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:41:33 PM | message detail |
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Oh, no... I posted a message about Mega Man getting the night vote
(looks like the last update shot that down), and it was supposed to be
in this topic, but it's not there, which means it's probably in some
crazy topic on another board. x_x Well, that's what posting history is
for! --- Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:42:38 PM | message detail |
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60% barrier about to shatter. Keep your ears open. --- CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165 Now playing: Okami |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:42:43 PM | message detail |
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Ryu is tantalizingly close to the magic 4-0. --- The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD Coming October 3, 2006 |
| Who Cares? | Posted 10/24/2006 10:44:07 PM | message detail |
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Heh, Ryu's now pulling in updates in the mid-40s. Can't wait to see where his % peaks when I wake up. --- Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd) *Currently playing Tales of the Abyss* |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/24/2006 10:46:59 PM | message detail |
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Ryu is really impressing me here. Shame I didn't go with my gut feeling
that MM would massively underperform today and against Sora in my
Oracle pick. Oh well *shrugs* TuRtLe ~~~ 49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:47:46 PM | message detail |
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darn you mega man --- CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165 Now playing: Okami |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 10:48:00 PM | message detail |
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haha 60% barrier (not for long) --- xyzzy |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:49:14 PM | message detail |
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I figured Mega Man would make Ryu look worse than Sora. Can't see Sora
breaking 40% next round, and Ryu has a small, but realistic chance. --- The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD Coming October 3, 2006 |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:50:59 PM | message detail |
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Err.. that should read "better." --- The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD Coming October 3, 2006 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 10:51:08 PM | message detail |
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If Sora can't break 40% next round, I'll be completely and utterly
stunned...especially since Kratos goes through his old value in the
first place. What kind of a relative boost would that be for Kratos
compared to Sora, especially when Sora's had KH2? --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:51:46 PM | message detail |
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bam, there it is. --- CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165 Now playing: Okami |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 10:52:34 PM | message detail |
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Sora should get right around 40%, whether it's slightly above or
slightly under. He definitely isn't going to be getting that crazy
mid-40s that some people were talking about before. --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:52:39 PM | message detail |
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I just have a gut feeling that Sora is the type of character to tank
against a Mega Man. Call it a Mega Man/Tidus vibe, if you will. --- The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD Coming October 3, 2006 |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 10:54:13 PM | message detail |
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I had that feeling too until I saw what he did against Axel... I think
that was just Tidus's natural strength, not a MM overperformance. we
just thought he was stronger thanks to Magus. --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 10:55:33 PM | message detail |
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Assuming that Ryu and Sora are both equal (meaning that Sora doesn't
outdo him here), Sora beats Kratos with 57.11% (duh). This is compared
to last year, where he beats him with 60.3% -- and Snake/Sora doesn't
play a bit in that. Kratos significantly increasing relative to Sora
seems bonkers to me, especially when Sora has had the biggest game on
this site right now as opposed to...GoW selling well. -_- --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/24/2006 10:56:00 PM | message detail |
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I just have a gut feeling that Sora is the type of character to tank
against a Mega Man. Call it a Mega Man/Tidus vibe, if you will. Yeah, but we already had that fun last year with Snake/Sora. It's Sora's turn to finally have a good match against a noble nine character. If Riku can get 30, Sora has a good shot at pushing it under 40, which would be good enough for me. --- Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/24/2006 10:57:05 PM | message detail |
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So.... Bowser looking pretty legit last year, which means Kirby is the one who screwed up that division <_< Which also means that Chun-Li was probably legit and Lara is looking half-decent. This also means that Leon is now a contest powerhouse >_< Hopefully Mega completely and utterly dominates during the day to make this seem less screwy TuRtLe ~~~ 49/54 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 10:57:48 PM | message detail |
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And remember, we've already seen MM have a good match against a Noble
Nine character -- Samus. Now of course, Samus can't SFF crap (although
she seemingly overperformed on Fisher and Lara for no good reason), but
that's good enough for me to peg Sora doing better on MM. Even though he is THE KING OF SFF !! --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 10:59:29 PM | message detail |
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you mean Sora? --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 11:00:58 PM | message detail |
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...yes, I mean Sora. MM can't have his good match against Samus until later. <_< --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 11:03:16 PM | message detail |
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Let's see here... Going with a rough estimate, Sora is going to end up around 29% -- assuming a constant Freeman -- on 2k5 Link, or just under 32% on BL. That puts Sora getting around 40.79% on a constant Mega Man, which seems right around my expectation of Sora getting somewhere in the area of 40%. That doesn't make him too strong, I don't think, and doesn't make him too weak either. If you adjust Sora 2k5 up to Sora 2k4, that ends up being a boost of around ~2.5% boost from KH2. If you don't adjust Sora, it's roughly a 5.5% boost. Either way, it seems right to me. --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2006 11:04:24 PM | message detail |
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He did? Samus nearly hit 66% against Sora. Even if Sora has increased
in strength, I think it's very possible for Mega Man's percentage to
fall somewhere between 60 and 66. It's a huge window. --- The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD Coming October 3, 2006 |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 11:06:15 PM | message detail |
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just curious - what do you get for Sora/MM using a constant Freeman and Ryu? I NEED TO STOP HITTING POST MESSAGE JESUS CHRIST --- xyzzy |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 11:06:48 PM | message detail |
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k Mega Man, you can stop this now. --- CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165 Now playing: Okami |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 11:07:20 PM | message detail |
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The thing is, Mega Man is significantly weaker than Samus (indirectly!)
and you'd expect KH2 to be bigger than that for him...not to mention
that we may not be able to assume a constant Mega Man here if Ryu keeps
this up. <<; Of course, there's not that much reason to panic yet...Bowser destroyed Ryu during the day, and that's the same character that got embarrassed by Leon Kennedy (who in turn lost a percent and a half against TKoSFF). MM should whip Ryu pretty bad during the day, he's just looking like crap now. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| Starion | Posted 10/24/2006 11:08:58 PM | message detail |
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Sora's a noble-niner now? Anyway, the only Noble-9 characters Mega
hasn't faced yet are (I hope I got this right) Mario, Cloud, and Samus.
He's faced Snake twice and won. The weird thing about that was he won
by a bigger margin %-wise the second time around. Hope that was a fluke
because I want a Snake upset this time. --- Now playing: New SMB | Queue: Okami | Waiting for: SMT:Devil Summoner, FF12, Castlevania:POR |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 11:09:34 PM | message detail |
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Assuming a constant Freeman and a constant Ryu, Mega Man (as of his
current percentage) ends up around 34% on 2k5 Link, which is just
slightly above 2k5 Snake. That would make a Mega Man/Sora match end up
being a 57 - 43 affair. --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 11:10:12 PM | message detail |
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Based on Mega Man's and Snake's preformances thus far, Snake > Mega Man is a very real possibility. --- CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165 Now playing: Okami |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 11:13:59 PM | message detail |
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I'm firmly behind the idea of MM 2k4 being the strongest MM we've seen
- well, excepting 2k2, but lol 2k2. if MM drops from 2k4 to 2k5,
another drop for 2k6 makes a bit of sense. --- xyzzy |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 11:13:59 PM | message detail |
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...Now this is interesting... Assuming that previous scenario, Mega Man drops by about 1.5%. If you drop Zero by that same amount and increase Luigi by about 1%, we end up with nearly the same result as Luigi/Zero !! --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 11:16:17 PM | message detail |
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don't forget that Ryu is probably overrated as well thanks to Bowser,
even if only by a percent or so. it's really too bad MM doesn't have a
quality opponent in his division because the NN upset bandwagon would
really start rolling. instead he gets Sora, who will be nothing more
than a test. --- xyzzy |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 11:17:13 PM | message detail |
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just curious - what do you get for Sora/MM using a constant Freeman and Ryu? Assuming Mega Man ends it at 60%. Sora = 31.57 on BL Mega Man = 37.48 on BL Mega Man gets 57.8% For the hell of it, if Bowser is overrated to the extent that a constant Leon implies and you adjust Ryu through that, Mega Man wins against Sora with 50.13%. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 11:18:59 PM | message detail |
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Ganon would have so beat Mega Man !! But this should definitely strengthen the Solid Snake over Mega Man bandwagon that seems to keep growing and growing. --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 11:19:27 PM | message detail |
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what about... a constant Kratos? constant Kratos makes more sense to me than a constant Leon, that's for sure. --- xyzzy |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 11:20:05 PM | message detail |
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It's growing because more people are beginning to see the light! --- CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165 Now playing: Okami |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 11:20:12 PM | message detail |
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Neither Kratos nor Leon should ever be kept constant, even in scenarios like these. It's just way too out there. --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| Janus5000 | Posted 10/24/2006 11:20:23 PM | message detail |
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You mean the Kratos that got !ed? --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4 |
| transience | Posted 10/24/2006 11:22:17 PM | message detail |
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you don't need to go through Sora/Snake to use a constant Kratos! not that I believe Kratos is as weak as he was last year, but it sure makes more sense than a constant Leon. --- xyzzy |
| Ed Bellis | Posted 10/24/2006 11:23:29 PM | message detail |
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Haven't seen one of these in a while... At the 2:20 am EST mark, this match has 18450 votes. To compare to similar matches at this time... Kratos/Ryu: 17875 Mega Man/Axel: 17977 Chun Li/Lara: 18202 Sonic/CATS: 16512 --- This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy! |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 11:24:02 PM | message detail |
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Kratos -- God of War price drop to $20, sells an additional 600,000 copies in America (1.2 million total) Leon -- Resident Evil 4 released on the PS2, sells 600,000 copies in America. That's good stuff !! --- The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 11:24:20 PM | message detail |
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Mega Man better kick some serious Ryu tail during the day. --- CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165 Now playing: Okami |
