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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 404

Haste_2 | Posted 10/24/2006 8:56:00 PM | message detail
RandInt (60,85) = 62% support for Sora. Low yet again.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/24/2006 8:58:39 PM | message detail
Round 2

Destiny Divisional Semifinal- Match 2

Ryu (6) vs Mega Man (2)


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2521
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2522

In round 1, Ryu beats a likely boosted Kratos while Mega Man disappoints against newcomer Axel.

Not much to say here either. Ryu was overrated by Bowser in last year's stats, so the number to look at is Bowser/Ryu:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2105

If Bowser got 59%, then Mega Man should have no trouble getting close to the doubling. Although he disappointed first round, I have a feeling that was more Axel's strength then any Mega Man weakness:

TuRtLe's Prediction: Mega Man with 64.22%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Mega Man
TuRtLe's Vote: Mega Man

TuRtLe
~~~
43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Gaddswell | Posted 10/24/2006 8:59:12 PM | message detail
Sora with 90%
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2006 9:00:18 PM | message detail
Ryu 28.57%

2
Mega Man 71.43%

5
TOTAL VOTES 7

Woo!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Ryu vs. Mega Man - Bracket: MM - Vote: MM (48/54)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2006 9:00:36 PM | message detail
73.01% for Sora..not bad.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Ryu vs. Mega Man - Bracket: MM - Vote: MM (48/54)
trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2006 9:00:38 PM | message detail
Mega Man gets a lot of board love, so I wouldn't be amazed if this looks worse than expected at first.
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"that'll do, pig."
Gaddswell | Posted 10/24/2006 9:01:00 PM | message detail
Ryu 34.81% 47
Mega Man 65.19% 88
TOTAL VOTES 135
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/24/2006 9:01:38 PM | message detail
OK, I'm bored with this match now.
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Hispanics 1 | Whites 5
Asians 4 | Blacks 3
rpgapzx | Posted 10/24/2006 9:01:57 PM | message detail
A -1 falls. I move up to 9th place on the leaderboard.

-B

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Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex.
SC2K6: 53/54 // Today: Megaman // Leaderboard: 9th
rpgapzx | Posted 10/24/2006 9:03:32 PM | message detail
Sonic is so screwed.
G_g

-B
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Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex.
SC2K6: 53/54 // Today: Megaman // Leaderboard: 9th
Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2006 9:03:47 PM | message detail
Nothing too surprising now. Ryu may be able to bring this around 40%, but MM should recover with the day vote.

Finally, I might have called a Round 2 match correct (percentage-wise)!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Ryu vs. Mega Man - Bracket: MM - Vote: MM (48/54)
trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2006 9:04:34 PM | message detail
I'd expect this to end about where it is right now - Ryu cutting at night and falling back during the day. I could see Ryu getting this down to 61% or so by morning.
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"that'll do, pig."
Gaddswell | Posted 10/24/2006 9:05:25 PM | message detail
At the freeze:

Ryu 36.25% 535
Mega Man 63.75% 941
TOTAL VOTES 1476
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/24/2006 9:05:38 PM | message detail
I'd rather put a bullet in my head than watch this crap.

Hell, I'd rather watch more fodder face off in the female bracket than this.

Just skip the rest of the bracket and get on to the Female Villain Contest already, C-bus.

Latez goz.
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Hispanics 1 | Whites 5
Asians 4 | Blacks 3
Big Bob | Posted 10/24/2006 9:09:56 PM | message detail
...Sonic/Vincent, Kirby/Luigi, and Crono/Bowser at least have the POTENTIAL to be good...
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/24/2006 9:10:34 PM | message detail
At least tomorrow we get a good read on Vincent. And Kirby/Zero is after that.

TuRtLe
~~~
43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Who Cares? | Posted 10/24/2006 9:11:37 PM | message detail
...Ryu ;_;
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd)
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2006 9:11:52 PM | message detail
looks like Axel really was that strong.. at least so far. this is playing out exactly like you'd expect when you factor in Dream being slightly overrated.

nexxxxxxxxxxxt
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"that'll do, pig."
cyko | Posted 10/24/2006 9:12:21 PM | message detail
*yawn*

like i said - a boring match. i'm going to bed. oh - and yes, this does actually mean something: OSFTSTDNGCMCTFIMVC SFF?!?!

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:12:49 PM | message detail
Woo, go Axel.
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CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165
Now playing: Okami
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 10/24/2006 9:13:20 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
51-----11-------90.9090909
50-----92-------97.8260870
49-----201------95.5223881
48-----449------92.6503341
47-----733------89.2223738
46-----1146-----87.6963351
45-----1575-----86.4126984
44-----2052-----83.5769981
43-----2428-----83.6079077
42-----2813-----82.9363669
41-----3162-----81.4674257
40-----3082-----78.9422453
39-----2980-----76.4093960
38-----2799-----73.8835298
37-----2502-----69.9840128
36-----2366-----67.2442942
35-----2226-----66.9811321
34-----1993-----66.4826894
33-----1822-----64.9835346
32-----1525-----62.6885246
31-----1303-----61.3967767
30-----1176-----59.6938776
29-----941------62.9117960
28-----783------58.4929757
27-----623------53.7720706
26-----446------52.2421525
25-----353------53.2577904
24-----239------52.7196653
23-----180------55.0000000
22-----124------46.7741935
21-----80-------41.2500000
20-----56-------39.2857143
19-----35-------22.8571429
18-----26-------30.7692308
17-----19-------26.3157895
16-----6--------33.3333333
15-----8--------25.0000000
14-----6--------33.3333333
13-----6--------0.0000000
12-----6--------16.6666667
11-----10-------10.0000000
10-----3--------0.0000000
9------9--------0.0000000
8------25-------4.0000000
7------37-------0.0000000
6------46-------0.0000000
5------56-------1.7857143

Everybody with a score of 4 or lower got the match wrong.
Overall prediction percentage: 73.01%

Great job by the top tiers. The -1s, -2s, -3s and -4s all manage to break 90. The -1s had the lowest predicetion percentage of the four, but only one -1 actually fell.

Two people fell off the Top 50 today. Edhelhin and gghoma did not have Sora winning over Gordon Freeman.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2006 9:15:14 PM | message detail
whoa, spoke too soon!
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"that'll do, pig."
Haste_2 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:16:21 PM | message detail
Wow, that was a terrible update for Mega Man. Get lower! Lower! I want you to lose to Snake...

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MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 9:16:44 PM | message detail
Ryu pulled in a ton that time -- 41% of the vote.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Who Cares? | Posted 10/24/2006 9:17:20 PM | message detail
It's freakin' amazing how dominating SF is at night, yet craps out at soon as the sun hits. Truly baffling! XD
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Yuna (November 2nd)
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 9:21:01 PM | message detail
I'm thinking this will definitely go under 60% before morning...

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2006 9:21:02 PM | message detail
man. Mega Man's board vote is legendary. can't wait to see it in action vs. Snake.
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"that'll do, pig."
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:23:53 PM | message detail
Whoa Ryu.
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CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165
Now playing: Okami
Haste_2 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:24:10 PM | message detail
Yeah...being mainstream seems to have to do little with the voting tendancies. You'll need more complex reasoning. Gordon Freeman, Street Fighter, Metal Gear, Dante, RE, Mega Man, Castlevania...they're all night-vote getters. Kratos, Master Chief, Lara Croft, Prince of Persia for the day... hrm, it seems like non-Nintendo/Square games do better in the NIGHT, generally. I never realized that.

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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2006 9:25:08 PM | message detail
I remember MM having a decent day vote.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/24/2006 9:26:44 PM | message detail
Man... We're going to watch two 40%+ streaks die in a row at this rate :(.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:29:25 PM | message detail
I believe, Ryu! Push it into the 40's before sunrise! I believe!
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/24/2006 9:33:06 PM | message detail
It seems Ryu tends to lose about 3% with the day to people of averagish day vote. Not sure where if Megaman is considered average.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:36:12 PM | message detail
Push!
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CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165
Now playing: Okami
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:36:38 PM | message detail
He lost five full percentage points against Kratos, but that's a character with a massive night/day discrepancy, and Ryu was also leading comfortably (meaning it was easier for Kratos to gain percentage). I'd be very impressed if Mega Man manages to gain half of what Kratos did during the final 16 hours.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:38:05 PM | message detail
Holy moly! Mega Man is bleeding percentage, and we're still in the vaunted first hour of the match. There's no question that Ryu will be comfortably in the 40's by the time the sun rises. I just hope he'll be able to stay there.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/24/2006 9:38:24 PM | message detail
Axel made Megaman look like a chump in the day, but Kingdom Hearts characters will do that to you I suppose.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:39:35 PM | message detail
Mega Man is a chump! Go Ryu!

(Needs to get more people on the Snake > Mega Man bandwagon)
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CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165
Now playing: Okami
HaRRicH | Posted 10/24/2006 9:40:53 PM | message detail
All I know is that Mega Man will be looking to be in awful shape if he doesn't beat Bowser's percentage on Ryu. When Solid kills Soma and Squall says he should be taking the male half of the bracket, you cannot fail to match the percentage of an opponent that Solid beat last year, especially after allowing Axel to break 30%. I'll save my hands though from going further -- Smurf will graciasly take this argument way too far.
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Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1)
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/24/2006 9:42:33 PM | message detail
Yeah. My Oracle pick was under 60. I was under the impression that Ryu wasn't what he used to be, but I was also banking on Zero's loss, Megaman's stupid looking picture and Megaman's performance on Axel to be signs of "things to come"

Well, we'll see I guess. At this point though, I have a feeling Megaman will at least manage around 60%. Just not much more than that
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Redtooth | Posted 10/24/2006 9:43:06 PM | message detail
So, if Ryu lost his 40% streak, what characters would be left in it?

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
charmander6000 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:43:10 PM | message detail
Wow Mega Man is dropping like a rock.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Haste_2 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:43:17 PM | message detail
Let's just string Ryu/Leon/Bowser/Mega Man all together...

Bowser - +2.5% on Ryu in day.
Bowser - none on Leon in the day.
Mega Man - +1.5% on Leon in day.

Judging by those, It looks like Mega Man might gain 4% on Ryu in the day...o_O (and I figure most of it would be by the after-school vote)

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transience | Posted 10/24/2006 9:46:42 PM | message detail
Axel rocked MM throughout the entire match for the most part. MM just has an early vote that is far superior to everything else.

MM will probably gain 2% on Ryu in the day.. MM is just decent there, which is all you need to beat Ryu. the question is where does MM stop bleeding percentage - if it's considerably under 60%, uhhh crap

darn you mega man
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xyzzy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/24/2006 9:48:03 PM | message detail
This technically shouldn't even be Ryu's best time. We have to wait another hour for that.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:48:27 PM | message detail
oh yeah mega man is gonna lose to sora yeah
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CB5 Points: 51/54, Current Oracle placement: 21/165
Now playing: Okami
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:48:42 PM | message detail
Let's just string Ryu/Leon/Bowser/Mega Man all together...

Bowser - +2.5% on Ryu in day.
Bowser - none on Leon in the day.
Mega Man - +1.5% on Leon in day.

Judging by those, It looks like Mega Man might gain 4% on Ryu in the day...o_O (and I figure most of it would be by the after-school vote)


Eh, you could look at it that way, but my common sense buzzer goes off when I think of Mega Man being noticeably stronger in the day than Bowser. Of course, there's probably more evidence to support it, so I'm just acting a fool.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Haste_2 | Posted 10/24/2006 9:50:27 PM | message detail
If I had to make a serious guess, I'd say Mega Man drops to 59% in the night, then ends up at 61-62%. I don't think Mega Man could be 1% short of Kratos with the day (afterschol) vote, especially looking at how he was thrashed by Axel with it.

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transience | Posted 10/24/2006 9:53:18 PM | message detail
I think it's more like 58 and 60.5.. we'll see.
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xyzzy
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/24/2006 9:58:16 PM | message detail
Quick question: how strong is CATS through MC 2k3?
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