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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 404

WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/24/2006 12:03:41 PM | message detail
Smurf, and you have Sora near Kennedy. I'd NEVER take Sora to put 45% on Bowser, would you?O_o
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 12:19:33 PM | message detail
...Why the hell is Ganondorf near Dante?

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
janembaman | Posted 10/24/2006 12:57:37 PM | message detail
Because Dante got 47 on Vincent >_>
No idea how

Anyway,Sora is finally taking advantage of the after school vote
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laff
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 12:57:52 PM | message detail
Assuming a constant Freeman, Sora's currently at about ~30% on BL (slightly above Ryu) and rising.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 1:00:27 PM | message detail
Because Dante got 47 on Vincent >_>
No idea how


I hope that's not a widespread thought.

Pre-Advent Children/Dirge of Cerberus
Dante 46% 45893
Vincent Valentine 54% 53882
TOTAL VOTES 99775

Post-Advent Children/Dirge of Cerberus
Ganondorf 47.41% 60685
Vincent Valentine 52.59% 67321
TOTAL VOTES 128006

Yeah.


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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/24/2006 1:15:55 PM | message detail
Oh Smurf, those tiers are so off...

Anyway, Sora's been sucking all day, but looks like he's finally getting his ass in gear now. Still, a doubling is a big stretch now. 64-65% is the best to hope for.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sora vs. Gordon - Bracket: Sora - Vote: Sora (46/52)
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2006 1:24:58 PM | message detail
Is it just me, or is GF actually resisting the after-school vote?

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Osfan | Posted 10/24/2006 2:01:00 PM | message detail
If by resisting you mean going from 10,000 off of doubling to 8000 in 2.5 hours then yeah he is resisting
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2006 2:16:54 PM | message detail
Well, yes. The KH afterschool vote has done worse, and GF isn't exactly a monster with the day vote.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 2:30:07 PM | message detail
I hope that's not a widespread thought.

Pre-Advent Children/Dirge of Cerberus
Dante 46% 45893
Vincent Valentine 54% 53882
TOTAL VOTES 99775

Post-Advent Children/Dirge of Cerberus
Ganondorf 47.41% 60685
Vincent Valentine 52.59% 67321
TOTAL VOTES 128006

Yeah.


I like how AC and DoC are suddenly massive factors for Vincent AFTER his match with Ganondorf.

And...would people here really take Riku over Sora? Are you guys nuts???
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2006 2:30:53 PM | message detail
Sora certainly hasn't done anything to boost my confidence in him. He'll need a good showing against MM to do that.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 2:35:10 PM | message detail
Please. It's Riku. I love the guy by leaps and bounds compared to Sora, but Sora would kick his ass. It wouldn't even be close.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/24/2006 2:37:13 PM | message detail
What advantages does Sora have over Riku, besides playability? Is there any reason Sora is more likely to beat Riku than Tidus is to beat (pre-KH2) Auron? Sora doesn't even have as many hardcore fans as Tidus does.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 2:41:30 PM | message detail
Sora is no Tidus, and Riku is definitely no Auron. KH2 especially solidifies this, when Sora comes into his own as a truly likeable character while Riku is an afterthought, more or less.

This isn't like Tidus/Auron, where Auron was specifically built and bred to be more likable, and Tidus came off as an annoyance to basically everyone. Not to mention we had a LOT of indications that Auron was more popular than Tidus, from that multi-character poll to him just being more impressive outside of Tidus' flukes. The sole indication that we have here with Riku is his match with Yoshi, and we have no clear idea on where Yoshi stands. Other than that we have his loss to Frog, and losing to people who struggle with Master Chief ain't impressive to me in the slightest.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
Osfan | Posted 10/24/2006 2:46:58 PM | message detail
For the most part we wont find out anything until next round. At least as far as these arguments stand. For the remainder of this round we get to see the final straw in the overrated Devil Division and get to see just how far behind Mario Bowser really is. Otherwise aint much else to look forward to.
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
Draco1214 | Posted 10/24/2006 2:49:45 PM | message detail
Wait, people are really starting to think Sora is weaker than Riku? Come on now.
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Currently Playing: Okami, King of Fighters 2002/2003, Gradius V
therealmnm | Posted 10/24/2006 2:50:27 PM | message detail
Why is everyone suddenly getting credit for MY ideas?

Just got in from work, but uhhhhh... I've been saying that the PC fanbase on this site is strong but niche for the longest. That's probably the case for Gordon Freeman and Half-Life. I mean it IS a popular game and all, but PC popularity just doesn't measure up to typical mainstream consoles.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/24/2006 2:51:53 PM | message detail
I love how Sora is so disappointing because everyone likes to make crazy claims of Sora with 35% on BL just because the other characters in the series do well, so Sora should do 6000% better. This puts Sora at his highest value ever, yet we're all acting like he dropped to Kairi level.
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caps
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/24/2006 2:53:01 PM | message detail
Heh, I don't think that Sora's actually weaker than Riku, but it would seem evident that they're fairly close...closer than Riku 2k5 looked to Sora 2k4. Why? Who knows. Perhaps Samus was underrated in 2k4, or Frog underperformed against Samus randomly, or Sora was overrated in 2k4, or Sora actually did drop between 2k4 and 2k5. Or maybe Sora just didn't boost as much from KH2 because it's hard to boost when you're already strong. Any could be true.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/24/2006 2:53:40 PM | message detail
Wait! partystar's right! Kairi > Sora FTW!
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/24/2006 2:55:52 PM | message detail
Yup, just like Rikku > Tidus!
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caps
therealmnm | Posted 10/24/2006 2:59:15 PM | message detail
Still catching up, but here's another comment:

Knuckles 2k2 managed it, and he's the same strength as Alucard 2k3. A quadding isn't exactly difficult to accomplish, especially considering that Sora beat Alucard, and has had KH2 since then.

Not just ANYONE can go and get a quadding, even if their x-stat strength suggests they would do so. Knuckles is someone who is known by EVERYONE. Everybody has played a Sonic game, and the majority probably like at least one game out of the series. Same with any old school, mainstream character. Kingdom Hearts may be very popular amongst its fans, but that doesn't mean EVERYBODY likes it. It's still only a recent PS2 RPG series. There are still people that don't care for the series much, which is probably why it couldn't blow out Harvest Moon. Not saying it gets anti-votes, but it definitely doesn't have the mainstream appeal of, say, Super Mario Bros. or Sonic the Hedgehog. It's probably the same for Sora. Likely really popular among his fans, but not EVERYBODY cares for him.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/24/2006 2:59:35 PM | message detail
Otherwise aint much else to look forward to.

We still have Luigi/Kirby, which could go either way.

It's kinda funny that if Freeman had rematches with all the characters he's lost to in the past, he'd beat all of them besides Leon, who he faced after his HL2 boost anyway.
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Hispanics 1 | Whites 5
Asians 4 | Blacks 3
BDawg | Posted 10/24/2006 3:01:05 PM | message detail
Talking about Sora is a drag, especially considering how massively predicatable this division has/will be. It's only purpose is to set up Snake/Megaman act III.
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Should I start running now?
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/24/2006 3:01:35 PM | message detail
Sora (2005c) VS Gordon Freeman (2005c)

Sora has a strength of 25.69.
Gordon Freeman has a strength of 22.78.

Sora wins with 55.66% of the vote!
A win of 9,650 with 85,196 total votes cast.

Oh no, Sora's only doing 8% better! Burn him at the stake!
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caps
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 3:03:42 PM | message detail
I'm not convinced Gordon beats Fisher in a rematch. Payne and Tina sure, but Sam has had Double Agent recently and Gordon certainly didn't impress against Phoenix Wright. Unless Sora completely bombs Phoenix is going to end up above people like The Boss and Terra in the stats, and he'd never have a chance there.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
janembaman | Posted 10/24/2006 3:05:02 PM | message detail
All this Riku/Sora talking remind me of Zero/Megaman
I still can't understand how Zero lost...who the hell likes Megaman more than Zero @_@

The same will be if there will be an SFF match between Riku and Sora
Sora will win somehow
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laff
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/24/2006 3:05:47 PM | message detail
More like

Sora has a strength of 28.93 against Base Link.
Gordon Freeman has a strength of 22.78 against Base Link.

Sora 60.63% 51,981
Gordon Freeman 39.37% 33,755
TOTAL VOTES 85,737

Sora wins with 60.63% of the vote!

No one ever uses 2005 Sora, partystar.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/24/2006 3:06:15 PM | message detail
If Gordon ends up almost exactly where he was last year, I'll believe his value is legit. If not, then yeah, his match vs. Leon was a fluke.
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Currently Playing: Okami, King of Fighters 2002/2003, Gradius V
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 3:08:41 PM | message detail
I like how AC and DoC are suddenly massive factors for Vincent AFTER his match with Ganondorf.

I don't think Vincent would have won without AC/DoC. My underestimating them beforehand does mean I should still hold them after the match. You can continue to believe that they did absolutely nothing, as there is little evidence either way, but the fact that Ganon still better after these things came out whereas Dante faced him before doesn't exactly put Dante on the same level of Ganon. Vincent could gain 2% from both of those and Ganon's quite ahead, as he normally would be.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Janus5000 | Posted 10/24/2006 3:10:12 PM | message detail
If Gordon ends up almost exactly where he was last year, I'll believe his value is legit. If not, then yeah, his match vs. Leon was a fluke.

Or maybe he fluked twice - sorta like the people behind Magus in 2k3!
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
therealmnm | Posted 10/24/2006 3:11:05 PM | message detail
I still can't understand how Zero lost...who the hell likes Megaman more than Zero @_@

Fans of classic Mega Man and the rest of the non-MMX/MMZ games, and people who haven't played MMX/MMZ and vote for Mega Man based on familiarity. Otherwise, there's no excuse not to vote for Zero in that match. <_<;
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/24/2006 3:11:16 PM | message detail
So I used 2k5 for more exaggeration, big deal! He's still doing better.
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caps
janembaman | Posted 10/24/2006 3:12:04 PM | message detail
Hm...I doubt there is such a thing as "AC boost"
It's the new game that boosted Vincent,not his 20 seconds of screen time
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laff
therealmnm | Posted 10/24/2006 3:13:40 PM | message detail
Oh, and if this was Vincent's first year in the contest, I would have taken him over Ganon with no questions asked.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 3:14:13 PM | message detail
But...why is it customary for Ganondorf to be 'normally' ahead in the first place? 2k3? 2k4? VC? His beating of Auron is the one thing that suggests that, and we've never really had a good read on Auron.

I don't expect the Devil Division to be overrated to any significant degree, and I expect Yoshi to confirm that in his match with Snake. Yoshi > Snake has always been a very sexy upset pick for me, and I expect the dino to impress by the end of this, enough to make Dante look comparable to his 2k5 level.

(of course, people will blame the sprite if he gets one, but we'll live with it)

Conversely, I don't expect Vincent to do that well on Sonic. Break 45% certainly, but I don't get these calls for 49%+ (unless you really expect him to have a shot at winning, in which case WTF were you doing closing your account prematurely).
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 3:14:29 PM | message detail
And, once again, assuming a constant Freeman, Sora's right around 31% on BL, which is around Auron 2k5 (underrated!) and Luigi 2k5. That doesn't sound too off to me. Mega Man would be projected to put up 60% on him there too.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
trannyscience | Posted 10/24/2006 3:14:30 PM | message detail
the point here is that people are expecting insane things out of Kingdom Hearts and Sora isn't a noble nine breaker like people were expecting. I have no idea why the expectations were that high, this is a good performance from Sora. hell, he struggled to get 70% on Agent friggin' 47.
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love
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 3:15:19 PM | message detail
Oh, and if this was Vincent's first year in the contest, I would have taken him over Ganon with no questions asked.

You would have taken him over Snake no questions asked in 2k5. You like overestimating Vincent. <_<;
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
therealmnm | Posted 10/24/2006 3:15:56 PM | message detail
Hm...I doubt there is such a thing as "AC boost"
It's the new game that boosted Vincent,not his 20 seconds of screen time


Oh, because nobody came on GameFAQs boards to talk about Advent Children after the leak, right? The ONLY thing that brings people to GameFAQs are actual games! Not trailers, E3, movie leaks, or anything like that. Nobody talks about that stuff on GameFAQs!
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/24/2006 3:16:21 PM | message detail
I certainly wouldn't even consider the absolutely absurd possibility of Sora being able to beat Yoshi or Dante

Yeah, it's absolutely unthinkable to believe Sora could outdo Riku by 5%.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 3:18:48 PM | message detail
But...why is it customary for Ganondorf to be 'normally' ahead in the first place? 2k3? 2k4? VC? His beating of Auron is the one thing that suggests that, and we've never really had a good read on Auron.

Weren't you the person who said that you thought Ganon was above Vincent in 2005? Uh, that would sort of imply that there was a boost from something. I think that Ganon would have slightly pulled one out last year. Vincent got his boost this year and went over him.

Conversely, I don't expect Vincent to do that well on Sonic. Break 45% certainly, but I don't get these calls for 49%+ (unless you really expect him to have a shot at winning, in which case WTF were you doing closing your account prematurely).

I don't think that Vincent is going to beat Sonic, but I do think he's going to get extremely close, which is why I bring 49%. It's hardly something that's unlikely, too, given that it requires a -- GASP -- mere 2% boost from DoC and AC. I also like how there were talks about DoC boosting Vincent beforehand even though it was bad and now you're bringing up him not boosting, or at least appearing not to boost.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
janembaman | Posted 10/24/2006 3:18:52 PM | message detail
Oh, because nobody came on GameFAQs boards to talk about Advent Children after the leak, right? The ONLY thing that brings people to GameFAQs are actual games! Not trailers, E3, movie leaks, or anything like that. Nobody talks about that stuff on GameFAQs!

By this logic,shouldn't Lara be a noble nine?
AC is a crap if you are not FFVII fan,and I still refuse to believe that movie gave him any strength at all
What next? maybe that cell-phone game will give Cloud a boost that will let him beat Link?
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laff
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/24/2006 3:22:28 PM | message detail
Weren't you the person who said that you thought Ganon was above Vincent in 2005? Uh, that would sort of imply that there was a boost from something. I think that Ganon would have slightly pulled one out last year. Vincent got his boost this year and went over him.

Yes, that was my theory. One that also takes into account that Ganon was slightly underrated and Vincent was slightly overrated by the Devil Division. I think DoC/AC pushed him over the edge, yes, but due to Vincent being underrated I don't think he'll end up that strong.

This is why I believe Dante will end up comparable to his 2k5 level, though perhaps not that strong. I still suspect the DD being overrated, though I hold to what you held to earlier -- if it is, it's like a half percent to a percent or so.

I also like how there were talks about DoC boosting Vincent beforehand even though it was bad and now you're bringing up him not boosting, or at least appearing not to boost.

Oh, I certainly give him boosting, which is the sole reason why I took him over Ganondorf in the first place...just not that much.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/24/2006 3:23:37 PM | message detail
What advantages does Sora have over Riku, besides playability? Is there any reason Sora is more likely to beat Riku than Tidus is to beat (pre-KH2) Auron? Sora doesn't even have as many hardcore fans as Tidus does.

Yeah, sure, believe Sora could have lost to Frog last year. You kinda have a direct match with Samus that disagreed with you. He's not weaker than Riku.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
therealmnm | Posted 10/24/2006 3:23:44 PM | message detail
You would have taken him over Snake no questions asked in 2k5. You like overestimating Vincent. <_<;

It's not like I like Vincent or anything... But still, if friggin' Sephiroth can be the 3rd most popular character on this site, why couldn't FF7 favorite Vincent Valentine potentially be as strong as Snake? I don't know if I would have actually TAKEN him over Snake since I don't like him... but I certainly feared that Vincent could have been as popular as Sonic and Snake all along. Him "only" beating Dante 54-46 certainly brought that to a halt, thankfully.

But yeah, after seeing Sonic beat Tifa last year with over 56%, I really doubt Vincent even with Dirge of Cerberus has that large of a gap over Tifa to actually take out Sonic. I'd give him 48% max.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
therealmnm | Posted 10/24/2006 3:26:41 PM | message detail
By this logic,shouldn't Lara be a noble nine?
AC is a crap if you are not FFVII fan,and I still refuse to believe that movie gave him any strength at all
What next? maybe that cell-phone game will give Cloud a boost that will let him beat Link?


Uhhhh, you're totally missing the point. People actually cared about Advent Children. You can't possibly compare it to a FFVII cell-phone game. Did you see the Advent Children board and the FFVII board after the leak? It DID bring people to this site... enough to make Vincent a bit stronger at least.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 3:27:20 PM | message detail
Yes, that was my theory. One that also takes into account that Ganon was slightly underrated and Vincent was slightly overrated by the Devil Division. I think DoC/AC pushed him over the edge, yes, but due to Vincent being underrated I don't think he'll end up that strong.

...Why would Vincent have been overrated? He certainly would have overrated the division, but he himself had no reason to. If you're thinking the AC boost going away, there's the fact that it came out again in America in April and then you add in his game right before the contest started. There's no doubt in my mind that he's going to end up stronger than he was in 2005, which is really the entire point of the comparison.

Oh, I certainly give him boosting, which is the sole reason why I took him over Ganondorf in the first place...just not that much.

2%? That's...not much at all.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/24/2006 3:28:29 PM | message detail
About time Sora started taking off, too. Poor Gordon. Scratch another off of the 40% club.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 5: Darkwing Duck (4-0)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/24/2006 3:30:17 PM | message detail
If you adjust Sora 2k5 to equal himself in 2k4, Sora's KH2 boost would appear be to be about 2%. Quite interesting...

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.