GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 400
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 1:42:54 PM | message detail |
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I hope it's the sprite round in Solid/Mega Man, and Mega Man wins by one vote..... --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/22/2006 1:44:27 PM | message detail |
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****ing **** ****. I just realised I lowered my oracle pick yesterday to 53.5% ish. What I had before that? 56.78%. Urgh. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz AC2K6 Score: 46/48 Today: Snake |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 1:47:35 PM | message detail |
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Looking at Squall/Kirby, Squall had 55% at the end of the first hour,
increased to 57% overnight, and dropped to around 54.7% during the day
before increasing to 55% with the second night vote. Snake, in contrast, had 55% at the end of the first hour, increased it to nearly 56% overnight, but had his percentage slashed to 50.39% with the morning/afterschool vote before barely recovering to 50.50% or so. Then take into account that Kirby outright won the day vote against Bowser, and... --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| transience | Posted 10/22/2006 1:57:36 PM | message detail |
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Squall is indeed better at night than in the day (which makes me think
KH isn't as big for him as people think), but just about anything is
better than Snake was. 1% isn't all that convincing. --- xyzzy |
| King Bowser | Posted 10/22/2006 1:59:58 PM | message detail |
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Didn't Sora only bring him down by about
2% from 6:00 AM until the end of the poll? I'm not too sure this says
much, but it certainly doesn't make Snake look bad. --- "Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!" |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 2:00:28 PM | message detail |
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Assuming Snake/Squall SFF and assuming a constant Mega Man and Alucard
through 2k2 and 2k3, Cloud and Squall's boost from KH is nice, but
expected. The oddball is Sephiroth...no matter how you slice it, his
boost was out of this world. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 2:04:23 PM | message detail |
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Snake had 70% after an hour against Sora,
dipped to around 67-68% overnight, dipped to 66% with the morning vote,
came back up to 67-68% and more or less maintained that until the
afterschool vote, where Sora ripped him for the rest of the match all
the way to 65%. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/22/2006 2:04:30 PM | message detail |
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Even in Ganondorf is underrated, I'm still saying that Sonic boosted
again this year. The percentage he put up on CATS was no joke and even
though it likely doesn't matter, his performance in the Series contest
was impressive. Sonic (2005c) VS CATS (2003c) Sonic has a strength of 38.50. CATS has a strength of 13.52. Sonic wins with 82.44% of the vote! A win of 57,024 with 87,887 total votes cast. I really don't think Sonic vs. CATS can be used to say that Sonic's stronger than he was before. --- 99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 2:06:18 PM | message detail |
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Then again though, Kirby did NOTHING with his day-vote against PoP. PoP
may just be a monster with the day-vote, but you also gotta wonder what
all trends got screwed by the new poll time. We've seen that some are
still around (hello, MC and FF3/6 characters), but not necessarily all
of them (looking at you, Sora). Now, this evening crowd tends to be pretty strong on both younger visitors and Nintendo fans, both of which may think more highly of Snake since E3 (maybe this year's E3 should just be called S3...heh) and MGS3:S was released since last year as well (though it sold worse than DMC3:SE, I hear), so it probably is a reason for this as well. Right now though, with the new poll-time, I'm just a little more cautious about trends we've relied on in years past. --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2006 2:07:07 PM | message detail |
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35% of this board before today >_> <_< Uh, no. 35% of this board thought Squall would win today? Oh, and the vote pattern tells me nothing about this being a different Snake, Squall isn't exactly good with the day vote, and Soma is from CV, I don't care if he was on GBA/DS, it's not like they sold so well that they can be considered mainstream Nintendo system titles. Plus it's the weekend, and we all know the trends have been a lot different on the weekends than the week. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| King Bowser | Posted 10/22/2006 2:08:44 PM | message detail |
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Snake had 70% after an hour against Sora, dipped to around 67-68%
overnight, dipped to 66% with the morning vote, came back up to 67-68%
and more or less maintained that until the afterschool vote, where Sora
ripped him for the rest of the match all the way to 65%. Eh, I suppose if you take it from the first hour, but I usually look at where they were at 6:00 AM in the morning until the very end of the poll. Last year's times were a bit different, and Sora never does well at night, so Snake having that much isn't exactly unexpected. It's about a 1.4% decrease from 6:00 AM until the end of the poll for this match and Sora brought it down about 2% from 6:00 AM until now. But considering Squall is hardly great with the day vote and most of it came at the morning, where Squall did his best, I don't think this is telling me a whole lot about Snake's strength. He's certainly stronger, but it's certainly not remotely convincing that he's going to take out Mega Man. --- "Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!" |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 2:09:33 PM | message detail |
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Plus it's the weekend, and we all know the trends have been a lot different on the weekends than the week. The day vote is just spread out instead of coming in a huge block. We still see a noticable day/night trend in the weekend matches, whether they be Ganondorf/Vincent or Luigi/Zero. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 2:11:18 PM | message detail |
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Though Luigi/Zero is technically Columbus Day, but eh, no school is no school. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2006 2:12:59 PM | message detail |
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Now, this evening crowd tends to be pretty strong on both younger
visitors and Nintendo fans, both of which may think more highly of
Snake since E3 (maybe this year's E3 should just be called S3...heh)
and MGS3:S was released since last year as well (though it sold worse
than DMC3:SE, I hear), so it probably is a reason for this as well.
Right now though, with the new poll-time, I'm just a little more
cautious about trends we've relied on in years past. Totally agree. The day vote swing is going to be lessened dramatically by the new poll time. What was once midnight on the west coast is now 9PM, still plenty early for the "kiddy" vote. And instead of 3AM on the East Coast, 12AM now. I almost never stayed around until 3AM unless it was a highly, highly, anticipated match for me, or if I was home and awake at 3AM, aka, rarely. If I had school I wouldn't really come on in the morning and vote, and then had to wait until afterschool. Now, with the poll time, I'm pretty much here for the beginning of every match, as long as I'm home, it's why polls have been more front loaded than in previous years, and why the day vote isn't the same as it used to be. You'll still see similar trends, just signiciantly lessened. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 2:14:13 PM | message detail |
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People said this during the Series Contest too, and guess what? Metal
Gear still bled percentage like crazy against EVERY DAMN THING it was
up against. I ain't buying it. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2006 2:18:54 PM | message detail |
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Characters obviously = Series. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 2:21:11 PM | message detail |
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Against SC, MG didn't have much of an excuse to bleed percentage...but
FE made sure SH never stood a chance with its day-vote, and its other
two opponents were KH and LoZ. It's not as unreasonable as you make it
sound, though MG probably shouldn't have let SC take it. --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/22/2006 2:46:48 PM | message detail |
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Over 100k votes? 6 hours left? We're going to break a record here aren't we? --- CB5 Points: 45/48, Current Oracle placement: 27/165 Now playing: Okami |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/22/2006 2:48:43 PM | message detail |
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A Square character won the morning? That doesn't usually happen... I was just thinking about this after looking at the updater, and didn't KH2 get a European release a couple of weeks ago? The morning tends to be labelled the European vote, and I can see that being a decent line of reasoning. At any rate, good to see Squall managed to get back some of his dignity. Now we can look forward to Yoshi/Dante going 50/50 and Sora breaking 70% on Gordon >_> lol trends TuRtLe ~~~ 43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| AmazingKirby | Posted 10/22/2006 2:49:47 PM | message detail |
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If Sora gets 70% on Gordon Freeman, Mega Man better hope Axel is super strong! --- caps |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/22/2006 2:51:31 PM | message detail |
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It was a joke btw. I can't see Sora doing much more than 60% It's just that every round 2 match has been a massive overperformance, followed by a massive underperformance. TuRtLe ~~~ 43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 2:53:09 PM | message detail |
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I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Sora break 70% on Gordon. And Axel would own GF, hardcore. Not that I buy him being pre-KH2 Riku strong, so something's got to give. I need to see MM and Yoshi in action again. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/22/2006 2:54:51 PM | message detail |
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You guys are forgetting one thing. Gordon's winning the male bracket. --- CB5 Points: 45/48, Current Oracle placement: 27/165 Now playing: Okami |
| LotteryTicket | Posted 10/22/2006 3:12:15 PM | message detail |
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The Gordon Sickness is strong in this one. *Looks at Axel* ~~Stingers135~~ --- Xenosaga is the worst series ever created, and Wilhelm is the most useless villain in history. [4 more days. I hate you Dante. This sig is a lie! Don't listen to it!] |
| MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/22/2006 3:13:09 PM | message detail |
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Gordon will get over 40% because he's Gordon Freeman. --- Demyx > Axel Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills! |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/22/2006 3:16:07 PM | message detail |
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ora (2005c) VS Gordon Freeman (2005c) Sora has a strength of 25.69. Gordon Freeman has a strength of 22.78. Sora wins with 55.66% of the vote! A win of 9,650 with 85,196 total votes cast. KH2 + Sora underratedness pushes this to at least 60, and at most 65%. If Sora falls outside of that range, he will hav etiher under or overperformed IMO. Though the way things are going now, I half expect him to reach what MM is projected to get on GF last year while Mega Man does worse on Ryu than Bowser for no apparant reason <_< TuRtLe ~~~ 43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 3:19:53 PM | message detail |
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You keep assuming Gordon is actually at 23% on BL. He isn't, and his
Phoenix Wright performance proves it (unless you want to believe PW is
strong fodder for whatever reason). Now whether he simply fluked his
Leon match or whether he's naturally nonlinear remains to be seen...but
this is the strongest character that he's ever seen, and I don't think
he's going to hold. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 3:21:36 PM | message detail |
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Also note that Sora 2k4 gets 61% on this Gordon. 65% is by no means his max given a healthy KH2 boost. --- *kills self Commit it to memory. |
| KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/22/2006 3:22:46 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, but what about all the Zelda fanboys anti-voting Sora because Tingle lost? Eh? EH?! --- CB5 Points: 45/48, Current Oracle placement: 27/165 Now playing: Okami |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/22/2006 4:41:28 PM | message detail |
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I highly doubt Sora's breaking 70 on Gordon, he only got 75% on Tingle.
75% was impressive for Sora, because he isnt' really the blowout type.
If he gets midsixties or above, I'd say it's a good day for him. --- Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest. |
| TrueHeroComplex | Posted 10/22/2006 4:44:51 PM | message detail |
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Gordon is going to beat Sora. --- A hero is a man who is afraid to run away. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/22/2006 4:51:42 PM | message detail |
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Match XLII: (6) Yoshi vs. (2) Dante Sparda Previous Matches Yoshi Defeated Riku, 55.20% - 44.80% Dante Sparda Defeated Ryu Hayabusa, 65.20% - 34.80% Analysis: Kingdom Hearts 2 must have helped Riku a lot because he got almost 45% on the dinosaur and many people thought Yoshi may have gained from last year. On the other hand Dante beat Hayabusa worse than Zero did to him, but with Zero’s lost to Luigi it doesn’t look as impressive as when it happened at the time. This is the match of the round, it’s not going to be Peach/Jill, but still it will be interesting. The sad thing about this match is it started being a 50/50 match, but now Dante has widespread support from people and it’s sounding that he will have no problem winning this match. I don’t blame them Dante should be the huge favorite, but if anybody says Yoshi has no chance then they are kidding themselves. First of all let’s take a look at the Devil Division. So far both Terra and today Squall have underperformed against their opponents and the other person, Vincent has reasons for him to increase in strength. This still leaves Dante’s over performance on Hayabusa last round. Well if you take a look at what Luigi did to Zero it looks like Zero may have had an overrated 4-pack last year which would affect Hayabusa. If this was all Zero’s dropping (very unlikely, but possible) then Dante would be really close to my adjusted Dante number. I’m really sure that this match will prove once and for all if this division was overrated. Another thing that could help Dante was the release of DMC3: SE since last year. The SE version of DMC3 was more well taken than DMC3 itself. This is where I can see Luigi raising in strength pulling Zero and Hayabusa up and making Dante look stronger. I see no reason why Dante wouldn’t get stronger from the game even if it is by a little bit. If we were to make Dante as weak as possible by adjusting the Devil Division down and saying DMC3: SE did nothing for him, Yoshi still wouldn’t be strong enough to beat him. The reason why so many people took Yoshi to win this match was because they were expecting Yoshi to increase in strength. Last year Yoshi’s ranking was based on a constant Laharl, yes by someone who is fodder. If the female bracket has told us anything is that the FFF (Fodder Fluctuation Factor) is true. For all we know Yoshi could have over or underperformed against Laharl so we don’t really have a true number for Yoshi. I think Yoshi is stronger than what the stats says because out of all of the Nintendo (especially Mario) characters Yoshi didn’t really change that much. I’m not the type of person that thinks that Yoshi has to be above Luigi (see Yoshi/Riku for why). Also there has been multiple Mario releases since last year and the DS has been gaining popularity on GameFAQs so I’d be surprised if Yoshi hasn’t gained from last year. The reason I picked Yoshi to win is that I knew this was going to be a close match and that I like Yoshi better than Dante. Dante deserves to be the huge favorite, but I do expect Yoshi to at least keep the match close and if Yoshi does manage to win the match this would make me feel better about my Kirby > Luigi pick. charmander6000’s Bracket: Yoshi over Dante Sparda charmander6000’s Prediction: Yoshi wins, 50.67% - 49.33% --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/22/2006 4:53:55 PM | message detail |
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Yoshi to at least keep the match close and if Yoshi does manage to
win the match this would make me feel better about my Kirby > Luigi
pick. Why would this make you feel better about Kirby > Luigi? If anything, a Yoshi victory would make Luigi look that much better. --- 99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 4:57:20 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, if Yoshi wins, ESPECIALLY convincingly, I think I would be ready
to give Luigi the nod over Kirby. Hell though, as-is, Kirby/Luigi is
feeling 50/50 to me. --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2006 4:59:18 PM | message detail |
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I've come to the realization that if you predict someone to win with
less than 51% of the vote, you can't even convince yourself that
they're going to win, and you're more or less reaching. This isn't to
say Yoshi has no shot, he does, but if you don't think the person can
break at least that, chances are they're not going to win. --- Portugal. The Man Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/22/2006 4:59:23 PM | message detail |
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I don't see why Luigi isn't the favorite already. ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX, FFL2 |
| transience | Posted 10/22/2006 5:01:12 PM | message detail |
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that analysis looked like it was digging for reasons to support Yoshi.
it even went as far as to say "well I admit that Dante looks better,
but I like Yoshi and I picked him." --- xyzzy |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/22/2006 5:04:25 PM | message detail |
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I've come to the realization that if you predict someone to win with
less than 51% of the vote, you can't even convince yourself that
they're going to win, and you're more or less reaching Would you say the same thing if he'd predicted Dante to win with under 51%? It's not as though matches are never close or anything. --- 99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/22/2006 5:04:29 PM | message detail |
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Luigi beat Zero worse than an overrated Kirby was projected to last year. I consider Luigi the favourite there. On the other hand, Kirby seemed to randomly overperform on Bowser for some reason. TuRtLe ~~~ 43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1 |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 5:13:38 PM | message detail |
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Luigi beat Zero worse than an overrated Kirby was projected to last year. I consider Luigi the favourite there. Luigi didn't finish that high, though I'm pretty sure Kirby gets no more than 51% if Zero was constant. You also have to consider that maybe Zero dropped because of some of the things we've seen this contest and Zero not impressing last contest. Throw in that Kirby may be able to do something fishy to Luigi if he did something fishy to Bowser, and Luigi is NOT the favorite... ...it's just that Kirby's not the favorite either. It's just too close to decisively say one has the fairly-obvious advantage over the other. --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| cloudstrife815 | Posted 10/22/2006 5:14:49 PM | message detail |
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I= losing! --- Wii savings: $110.00 Yeah... i stole the sig idea from someone else. so? sue me. |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/22/2006 5:16:00 PM | message detail |
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Would you say the same thing if he'd predicted Dante to win with
under 51%? It's not as though matches are never close or anything. Yes, I would still think Dante is going to win, but in my experience, when you're taking someone to win with less than 51% it's usually just a really big stretch. Even when you think a match is going to be close and can go either way, you favor one over the other with 51%+. It's not always going to work out, but from what I've seen, it's certainly the case. --- I'm so hardcore. |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/22/2006 5:18:02 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and even if you think Kirby is horribly overrated thanks to rSFF on
Bowser, he should still be able to rSFF Luigi, so it's not exactly on
knock on him in his match with Luigi. I
think Kirby is overrated last year because of Bowser/Snake however, so
that drops Kirby down a bit, but I'll still take him over Luigi, who I
had beating Zero in the first place, so there's no reason for me to
jump ship now. I always felt Zero was a much bigger threat to Kirby
than Luigi was anyway, if Luigi beat Zero I felt comfortable Kirby
would win as well. --- I'm so hardcore. |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/22/2006 5:21:24 PM | message detail |
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Luigi beat Zero worse than an overrated Kirby was projected to last year. Oh hey look, it's BT not having any idea what he's talking about. WHAT A SHOCKER, CALL THE MEDICS. Zero has been steadily declining, if you keep the decline constant, and drop him another 2%, then Luigi only needs to be 1% above his 2K5 value to have the match go as it did, and that's assuming x-stats have to work out absolutely perfectly. That leaves Kirby 3% above him in the stats last year, and unless you think Kirby is overrated by more than 3%, and there's no reason you should, you can't call Luigi the favorite. Either Kirby is the favorite, or there is no favorite in my mind. --- I'm so hardcore. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 5:24:56 PM | message detail |
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Since I believe Kirby got a percent or so of rSFF on Bowser due to
being massively favored in the SSB series, I see Kirby barely being
able to rSFF Luigi if at all -- Luigi was in both games and is better
in both games than Bowser by miles. So, in that sense, I don't think
Kirby gets that same kind of advantage against Luigi he got against
Bowser, at least to that same kind of degree (which was never a large
thing like people make it out to be...just enough to call out)... ...then again, if Kirby/Bowser happened because people are simply weird and DON'T vote the same way all the time (ha, never!!!!!11!), then yeah, if Kirby could rSFF Bowser then he should be able to rSFF the weaker Luigi, and probably worse at that. --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/22/2006 5:24:57 PM | message detail |
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You also have to consider that maybe Zero dropped because of some of
the things we've seen this contest and Zero not impressing last contest. Meh, I still think that Luigi won't end up as strong as his beating of Zero suggests. That makes Zero look even weaker I know, but there's absolutely no reason for Zero to actually drop in popularity after the release of MMXC, MMZ4, Maverick Hunter X, and Mega Man ZX over the past year. I'm not even going to try to explain it. I just see it happening though. Maybe mainstreamers like Mario and Luigi take away Zero's casual appeal... I just hope Zero doesn't pull a Knuckles and disappear from the contest next year. --- Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/22/2006 5:26:32 PM | message detail |
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I could see Zero dropping out if we had another 32 male character
field, but with 64? No way. He may get totally jobbed in seeding, but
he's not going bye bye. --- I'm so hardcore. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 5:28:27 PM | message detail |
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I can agree with ya there mnm -- I sparked up the comparison of
Mario/Luigi/Zero to Cloud/Tifa/Vyse on a smaller scale, and that very
well may show next year if Zero returns (I figure he will if CJay
doesn't have another silly gimmick). Nothing's promised, and we'll have
to see how the rest of the contest goes before we can really discuss it
more, but I wouldn't be opposed to Zero coming back next year with 2k5
strength if the new-generation gamers are kind to him... ...which could be a big question, but time will tell. --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 5:35:47 PM | message detail |
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I just hope Zero doesn't pull a Knuckles and disappear from the contest next year. Technically, it'd be pulling a Magus...'cuz, you know, Knuckles won. =P --- http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/ Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Adam Sandler (#1) |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/22/2006 5:36:11 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, I know it sounds biased. But I really don't see why Zero would
actually drop in popularity last year when pretty much every "old
school" character (Sonic crew, Mega Man, Nintendo Crew, Pac-Man) looked
stronger or at least constant. The only oddities were Zero, Yoshi, and
Ryu... and they all went up against other
mainstream old school characters when they underperformed. I'm kinda
skeptical of saying those 3 characters actually decreased in popularity. --- Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX |