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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 400

therealmnm | Posted 10/22/2006 9:07:28 AM | message detail
And then add KH2 to that... bleh.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/22/2006 9:08:22 AM | message detail
Maybe this is a combination of DD overratedness+SFF. MM>Snake is guaranteed!
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 9:10:04 AM | message detail
Relying on an opponent's weakness rather than your own strength is never a good sign.
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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/22/2006 9:12:39 AM | message detail
Although, I'll be honest. If Yoshi doesn't perform at 46+ against Dante, and MM doesn't at least 63/37 Ryu, I'll start losing a little bit of confidence in MM>Snake.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 9:21:01 AM | message detail
Adjusting Ryu through Kratos through Sora 2k4, Mega Man should double him or so. That assumes no Kratos boosting at all and it potentially underrates him in 2k5, so that's a good ceiling to look out for...around there or any higher and he'll be looking very good.

I'd get worried for his chances if he didn't do much better than Bowser.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 9:44:27 AM | message detail
Yeah, he HAS to outdo Bowser or else that'll break the faith of practically everyone.
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Super Luigi | Posted 10/22/2006 9:51:06 AM | message detail
Snake will beat Megaman. I mean, Megaman couldn't even stay at 70% against AXEL. lol Megaman.
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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/22/2006 9:55:30 AM | message detail
Snake will beat Megaman. I mean, Megaman couldn't even stay at 70% against AXEL. lol Megaman.

Yeah, cause Axel being slightly above Kefka is so unbelievable.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Super Luigi | Posted 10/22/2006 10:01:57 AM | message detail
Actually, It is.
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Currently playing : Splinter Cell DA(Xbox 360), NBA 2K7(Xbox 360), NHL 07(Xbox 360).
XBL GT - SuPeR MiKe 86
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/22/2006 10:05:22 AM | message detail
Okay. Sure a universally loved character from one of the most popular games on this site can't be better than a joke like Kefka, from a game whose characters have little to no success on these contests. Look, I'd easily take Axel over Kefka and Tommy V, and Gordon Freeman, who's also around that area. I'd probably take him over Diablo too, who would get around 31.22 on MM according to last years Xstats.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
The Real Truth | Posted 10/22/2006 10:06:06 AM | message detail
I'm starting to think now that Snake is ahead by this much because of bracket support. I mean he's clearly the favorite of many casuals and with Squall's 4 seed, these results make sense.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 10:11:22 AM | message detail
Bracket support shouldn't ever do this kind of damage though, or even half of it.
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PlatinumSmurf | Posted 10/22/2006 10:12:22 AM | message detail
Yeah, cause Axel being slightly above Kefka is so unbelievable.

If Axel beat Tommy Vercetti, I'd cut my right arm off.
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/22/2006 10:13:11 AM | message detail
Is it really that hard to believe that Snake could actually (gasp!) gotten a fair bit stronger than last year? Why does it always need to be some other factor?
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CB5 Points: 45/48, Current Oracle placement: 27/165
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 10:15:45 AM | message detail
I wouldn't take Axel to beat Vercetti or even Kefka, but I would think he would keep it close with either of them...so I'm not big on this whole MEGGAR MAN IS TEH DROPZ OF THE NOBLE idea that's out and about. I think unless Mega Man really impresses agaist Ryu, Solid Snake has to be the favorite.
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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/22/2006 10:16:03 AM | message detail
If Axel beat Tommy Vercetti, I'd cut my right arm off.

Hopefully Ceej reads this and makes it a R1 match in 2k7. >_>
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
voltch | Posted 10/22/2006 10:16:33 AM | message detail
snake being stronger seems strange considering his results against frog and bowser.
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/22/2006 10:18:06 AM | message detail
Yeah but that was last year. Before MGS4 hype. And SSBB hype. And MGO. I don't care what you guys think, but saying that the hype doesn't help just a little is crazy.
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CB5 Points: 45/48, Current Oracle placement: 27/165
Now playing: Okami
HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 10:23:21 AM | message detail
I think if ype has ever helped before, it's helped Solid Snake. He stole E3 this year -- and not in the way Link did with the LoZ trailer, either. MGS4 is likely the most anticipated PS3 game right now, and SSBB would be the same for the Wii if LoZ:TP wasn't going to release on both Wii and Gamecube. Considering that Nintendo and Sony have the most beloved systems here and MGS having hit every system this generation with some success, it's hard to find somebody who would come to GameFAQs who's not only familiar but happy about Solid Snake's upcoming future.
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BeTheMan | Posted 10/22/2006 10:23:25 AM | message detail
Alright, so the last time Snake tangled with Knuckles, Knuckles wound up with 40.44% of the vote. Since that was before MGS3 and the hype over MGS4 & SSBB, it shouldn't be too much of a stretch to think that Knuckles would drop into the 38% range on Snake if they had a rematch today.

If Squall ends up around 43% on Snake, then Squall projects out to somewhere around 55%-56% on Knuckles this year (based on the numbers above), which seems pretty reasonable.

What does this mean? *shrug* Beats me. Maybe we're seeing a rare, legitimate result from a Snake match?
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO Z1mZum FOR ROCKING THE GURU WORLD
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/22/2006 10:25:41 AM | message detail
Legitimate Snake result in the stats topic! I think not! Snake obviously got more of a KH2 boost than Squall!
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CB5 Points: 45/48, Current Oracle placement: 27/165
Now playing: Okami
Nyah | Posted 10/22/2006 10:42:58 AM | message detail
If Yoshi happens to pull a win tomorrow, what do you guys think his prediction percentage will be? I'm thinking somewhere around 20-25%.
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Big Bob | Posted 10/22/2006 10:44:23 AM | message detail
If this isn't SFF...

Vincent is so royally screwed.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/22/2006 11:23:23 AM | message detail
Why wouldn't it be? Snake/Sora proved that there is a degree of Playstation SFF out there, especially with the widely played games on it.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/22/2006 11:28:17 AM | message detail
If this isn't SFF...

Vincent is so royally screwed.


Funny how the opposite is true if Squall/Tidus wasn't SFF.

Anyway, with regards to Vincent, I don't think there's much we can say about his strength when looking at characters who were in the Devil Division last year. Most of them have reason to change, including Vincent himself, and if Vincent did overperform due to JP AC leak, it's entirely possible that the actual English release made up for it, so Vincent's far stronger than the rest of the Devil Division (ignoring their other new games). Not to mention the potential for a Sonic drop (unlikely, I know, but 2k5 is an oddity for having such a strong Sonic, and we have no idea about the strength of Hybrid-CATS). It's not like Vincent doesn't have a chance to win this match, and he'll certainly perform much better than Tifa did last year, barring a huge boost from Sonic.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2006 11:28:49 AM | message detail
...Dante > Snake?

Glad to see you finally joining the more intelligent users in the stats topic KH! "Yoshi > Snake has more of a chance of happening than Dante > Yoshi." Well then, I guess Dante will just be kicking Snake's ass after Dante smacks down Yoshi !!

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Portugal. The Man
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/22/2006 11:32:03 AM | message detail
Why wouldn't it be? Snake/Sora proved that there is a degree of Playstation SFF out there, especially with the widely played games on it.

No, it didn't. Sora went down from 28.93 to 25.69. 3% is a very small amount of "SFF", especially considering what Aeris did to Sora in 2k3. That amount could as easily be made up by picture factor as by SFF.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 11:38:26 AM | message detail
Sora looked even stronger in 2k5 than he did in 2k4 right up until he got his face kicked in. 55%+ on Alucard is no joke, considering Ganondorf did only 2% better. Sure that was Ganondorf 2k4, but looking at Link 2k4 I'd say he gained nicely that year.

And does anyone have percentage by the hour for this match? Snake is really impressing me here.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 11:40:19 AM | message detail
Vincent has a chance if you go by the stats, but Sonic has been clearly more impressive than Ganondorf lately. He's counting on another Zelda boost to make that win happen for him, and despite what HM (and Zelda's performances) would have you believe, I'm not feeling it.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/22/2006 11:42:12 AM | message detail
Snake's percentage by the hour:

14:00 | 56.07%
13:00 | 56.70%
12:00 | 57.19%
11:00 | 57.37%
10:00 | 57.41%
09:00 | 55.54%
08:00 | 55.27%
07:00 | 55.04%
06:00 | 57.13%
05:00 | 59.35%
04:00 | 55.74%
03:00 | 58.33%
02:00 | 60.24%
01:00 | 60.53%

A Square character won the morning? That doesn't usually happen...
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/22/2006 11:45:13 AM | message detail
Well, KH, you've said before that you thought Ganon 2k5 was stronger than Vincent 2k5, and Sonic's only expected to get 53.79% on Vincent 2k5. In that case, year over year/random variation could be enough to hand the victory to Vincent, since he only did a percent worse than that on Ganon.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2006 11:54:10 AM | message detail
Vincent has a chance if you go by the stats, but Sonic has been clearly more impressive than Ganondorf lately. He's counting on another Zelda boost to make that win happen for him

Not true. He needs Ganon to be underrated last year (and he was!). I, like HM have Sonic with 51%, but Vincent winning wouldn't be a shocker, and it would be completely awesome. The only person who I would be happier about ruining the Noble 9 is Crono, but that's not happening, plus Smurf would probably kill himself.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/22/2006 11:55:49 AM | message detail
Like we'd ever get that lucky.

~*ST*~
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 12:02:22 PM | message detail
Well, KH, you've said before that you thought Ganon 2k5 was stronger than Vincent 2k5, and Sonic's only expected to get 53.79% on Vincent 2k5. In that case, year over year/random variation could be enough to hand the victory to Vincent, since he only did a percent worse than that on Ganon.

I said I thought Ganondorf 2k5 was stronger than Vincent 2k5, yes, but in that same breath I said that I believed the Devil Division was slightly overrated. Ganondorf 2k5 is in my mind a lil' bit lower than Vincent 2k5's value. Kirby, I believe I pegged it.

Even then Vincent would have a chance going by the stats, of course...but again, I'm not feeling it. Sonic's been more impressive than Ganondorf everywhere it counts lately, and by a good margin as well. Vincent's win was very impressive, but I couldn't see Sonic that close to the -dorf.
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/22/2006 12:40:25 PM | message detail
Since I'm not really sure which Part 400 topic is the correct one...I'll just go with this one since it has more posts.

*Copies and pastes*

I'm glad Snake shut up all the disbelievers. I'm telling you, Sonic is the only likely member to fall out of the Noble Nine this year.
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MrPotatamoto | Posted 10/22/2006 12:41:30 PM | message detail
Mine is the correct one, this is the one everyone went to anyway. ;_;
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Pacmaaaaaaaaantis
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 12:41:35 PM | message detail
just like Zero was a lock over Luigi mirite
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2006 12:43:05 PM | message detail
Who was a Snake disbeliever? People have him losing to MM... that's not exactly not believing in Snake, it's called what's expected and logical using past years stats. Sure Snake can beat MM, but he is deservingly the underdog. There's one person calling for him to lose before then, and it's me to Dante. And I don't even believe myself.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/22/2006 12:44:02 PM | message detail
ya i no that ec guy doesnt no what hes talking lol what a dumdum
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CB5 Points: 45/48, Current Oracle placement: 27/165
Now playing: Okami
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/22/2006 12:56:33 PM | message detail
Even in Ganondorf is underrated, I'm still saying that Sonic boosted again this year. The percentage he put up on CATS was no joke and even though it likely doesn't matter, his performance in the Series contest was impressive.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2006 12:59:04 PM | message detail
Zelda is obviously winning the bracket. LETS MEASURE PEOPLE BASED OFF OF FODDER IT'S THIS REALLY COOL NEW IDEA I HEAR IT WORKS.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/22/2006 1:04:04 PM | message detail
EC just got mighty pissed off <_<

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX, FFL2
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/22/2006 1:05:23 PM | message detail
......you don't ****ing make 62 yard field goals, you just ****ing don't. That was the biggest horse**** I've ever ****ing seen.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 1:06:40 PM | message detail
I don't know if Sonic boosted again or not, but as somebody who took Mega Man > Sonic last year, I've felt like ever since their match last year that Sonic would win the rematch this year...I think he'll be a bit stronger, and CATS may support that, I just don't know if it'll be enough to help him match or beat Mega Man's performance against Crono or even pull the upset. It's hard to say.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/22/2006 1:13:06 PM | message detail
This match is on pace for 134k votes.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 1:25:36 PM | message detail
I was about to say that, holy ****, that's really high for a SFF match... <_____________<
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*kills self
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transience | Posted 10/22/2006 1:37:37 PM | message detail
Snake's not dropping with the day vote, huh? and didn't drop vs. Soma either?

yeah, that convinces me this is a different Snake more than anything else.
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 1:39:08 PM | message detail
Mega Man better be hoping for some sprite action! And it might not even be enough!
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*kills self
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HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/22/2006 1:41:37 PM | message detail
Who was a Snake disbeliever?

35% of this board before today >_> <_<
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/22/2006 1:42:09 PM | message detail
For what it's worth, Solid/Squall/maybe Soma are mainly night-strong and the poll-change may have somehow evened them through-out the day a bit. That said though, yeah, this is probably the strongest Solid we've seen yet, SFF or not.
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