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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 400

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/22/2006 12:16:48 AM | message detail
Wow. I didn't expect to see Squall get this under 60% before the day time. If Snake ends up as bad as he usually is with the day vote, Squall could make this look a lot better.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 12:17:24 AM | message detail
Don't worry. If there's any character that can look like crap even in a dominating victory that exceeds all expectations, it's Solid Snake!
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 12:18:52 AM | message detail
These updates are really odd though. It's like 55%, 56%, 55%, BAM 60%, 55%, repeat.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/22/2006 12:20:06 AM | message detail
Really weird, just like every other match.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 12:21:34 AM | message detail
So maybe I scrutinize this match a little more than usual. Wanna fight about it?! @_@
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/22/2006 12:24:11 AM | message detail
wow, Squall is really doing good here. it's like what happened with Lara, only on a smaller scale.

I'm convinced the first hour or so of the poll is a completely different demographic at this point. there have been several matches that, for the first hour or two of the match, have trends that don't hold up with the rest of the overnight vote. Chun Li had a 3664 vote lead after two hours and took another 11 hours to double it. that's not normal.
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/22/2006 12:31:54 AM | message detail
Man, Snake is dropping like a rock. I'm really interested in seeing if Squall can win some updates during the day.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/22/2006 12:32:50 AM | message detail
Lara is a day vote beast, Chun Li is a night vote beast. When you have two extremes colliding, that kind of thing can happen.

I don't see Squall bringing this to 45%. Remember last year when we all expected Sora to murder Snake with the day vote? It never really came.
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 12:33:18 AM | message detail
Yeah, Squall is definitely taking his fair share of updates throughout the day. Good for my Oracle/Crew pick, bad for my preference!
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
Redtooth | Posted 10/22/2006 12:35:04 AM | message detail
I can see Squall with 43% by the end, pretty easily. If he can improve this in the day, he'll be around 45%. Yay for my oracle >_>

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 12:35:59 AM | message detail
Sora brought it down over 2.5% with the afterschool vote. That's a pretty darn big shift for that period of time...I don't necessarily expect the same shift here, but Snake was doing a lot better against Sora at night.

Then again, it is the weekend and the voting patterns have become less pronounced in this contest. Then AGAIN, we said that during the series contest and Metal Gear still found a way to defy expectations and bomb even harder with the day.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/22/2006 12:38:08 AM | message detail
heh, and all of a sudden, Snake isn't SFFing Squall anymore!!!!!!!!
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xyzzy
Redtooth | Posted 10/22/2006 12:38:37 AM | message detail
omg! rSFF!

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/22/2006 12:39:18 AM | message detail
Snake SFFs somebody every year. He needs to fulfill his yearly quota. <_<

2002 - Squall
2003 - Raiden
2004 - Tanner
2005 - Sora
2006 - Squall

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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/22/2006 12:40:08 AM | message detail
Smurf sure posts here a lot given that this is an elitist haven he despises.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX, FFL2
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 12:40:45 AM | message detail
Yeah, I'd really wish he wouldn't drop off like this, because barring a Snake boost people are just going to treat this like a Squall drop/being overrated if it isn't overwhelmingly in Snake's favor. 60-40 is obvious SFF, 55-45 can be rationalized by people...

Stop voting for Squall, Squall fans! The better he does the worse he looks! Or something!
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/22/2006 12:41:11 AM | message detail
I'd like to see the quote that says I despise this place.
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Redtooth | Posted 10/22/2006 12:41:24 AM | message detail
Wait...I see a patern....YES! Raiden will return next year!! woo!


oh wait...he'll only be back to die against Snake again...;_;

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/22/2006 12:42:19 AM | message detail
From MyworldisSmurf Posted 10/22/2006 3:36:21 AM #031
It's still getting deleted. If Ulti doesn't like you, he'll throw a tantrum until he gets his own topic.

If you don't like that, my advice is to stop posting in that elitists haven.


~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX, FFL2
MrPotatamoto | Posted 10/22/2006 12:42:20 AM | message detail
I'n still bad at you, Mr. Steals My Topics and Is A Jerk Guy.
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Pacmaaaaaaaaantis
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/22/2006 12:43:29 AM | message detail
55/45 could very easily be explained. Depending on where Snake is at later, you could either say Snake boosted all the way, Snake boosted a bit and Squall gained a bit from KH2, or Snake stayed constant and SFFed him slightly. No matter what, it's a lot better than 60/40...except when it comes to preference!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 12:45:08 AM | message detail
Hopefully it'll be a somewhat debatable Round 1 match (Raiden/Kefka, anyone?) before he gets a Snake beatdown in Round 2. If Raiden could dispatch of Kefka easily, he'd get a lot more support for more contests.

Sub-Zero will benefit from his big upset this year, Falcon probably won't...PoP is on the fence, if Kirby beats Luigi and does respectably on Sonic he'll probably get the board's support, if Kirby gets his face kicked in he'll probably get dropped.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
MrPotatamoto | Posted 10/22/2006 12:46:32 AM | message detail
From MyworldisSmurf Posted 10/22/2006 3:36:21 AM #031
It's still getting deleted. If Ulti doesn't like you, he'll throw a tantrum until he gets his own topic.

If you don't like that, my advice is to stop posting in that elitists haven.


This may stem from my not being nearly as intelligent as you, but in no part of that post does he mention his own dislike for the topic, he just calls it an "elitists haven".

Maybe he likes such things.
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Pacmaaaaaaaaantis
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/22/2006 12:46:36 AM | message detail
Raiden and Mewtwo are the overdue characters for this thing.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX, FFL2
MrPotatamoto | Posted 10/22/2006 12:47:52 AM | message detail
*err rather I don't see where it mentions dislike for the topic. Maybe it does, you seemed to see it.
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Pacmaaaaaaaaantis
transience | Posted 10/22/2006 12:47:59 AM | message detail
Snake's percentage by hour:

00:00 - 60.79%
01:00 - 60.39%
02:00 - 57.96%
03:00 (so far) - 56.11%

55/45 by the time this match ends? probably not, but I could see 56% being in reach. I'm curious to see Snake's new day vote power if he really is a Nintendo kinda guy.
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xyzzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/22/2006 12:49:05 AM | message detail
One of these days I'll figure out why idiots stalk every well-known GF user.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX, FFL2
The Real Truth | Posted 10/22/2006 12:49:28 AM | message detail
The night vote is killing Snake.
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Nominate Barret Wallace for SC2k7, you know you want to
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/22/2006 12:49:53 AM | message detail
I really doubt Snake has any significant change in his day vote right now. That would definitely come after SSBB, but before? I don't see it. I expect him to be the same old sucky day vote Snake, unfortunately.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/22/2006 12:50:04 AM | message detail
From The Real Truth Posted 10/22/2006 3:49:28 AM #078
The night vote is killing Snake.

Which is silly, because he's usually a beast here.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX, FFL2
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 12:50:26 AM | message detail
I'm not feeling it. I know we haven't seen the day yet, but this is probably just going to get worse and worse for Snake as it goes on. Soma...just really ****ing sucked.

I'm going to stop looking at the updater now before I get upset and forget that this is actually an overperformance.
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/22/2006 12:52:07 AM | message detail
*err rather I don't see where it mentions dislike for the topic. Maybe it does, you seemed to see it.

Ulti getting pwnt be a newbie. THE HUMANITY! ^_~
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
MrPotatamoto | Posted 10/22/2006 12:52:12 AM | message detail
One of these days I'll figure out why idiots stalk every well-known GF user.

Will you figure out how to not exaggerate things?

Being a little annoyed when someone steals your topic and complaining about it for an hour or two is pretty low quality stalking.
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Pacmaaaaaaaaantis
transience | Posted 10/22/2006 12:52:22 AM | message detail
I'm not either, but if you're going to argue that Snake is going to take the main bracket or beat Mega Man, he's got to at least draw some of his strength from the N crowd. otherwise this is just the same old Snake, the one who's lost twice already to MM.
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xyzzy
MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/22/2006 12:53:27 AM | message detail
Dark Cloud for Female Villain Contest Champion!
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Hispanics 1 | Whites 5
Asians 4 | Blacks 3
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/22/2006 12:53:32 AM | message detail
The night vote is killing Snake.

...Night...Vote...Killing...Snake...? Now there's a set of words I never thought I'd see spoken in the same sentence. If squall keeps this up during the day 43% and possibly even higher would be well within reach for him.

And don't underestimate how absolute horrid snakes day vote is. This is the same guy who went from doubling knuckles to finishing well under 60% against him.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/22/2006 12:54:05 AM | message detail
Snake will Nintendo SFF Megaman. >_<

How crazy does that sound?
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Smurf The cream of Sonic Fanboyism.
FOREVER INFERIOR TO HARMONICA.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 12:55:05 AM | message detail
Hey, now...Snake *can* get more popular without the help of SSBB...just Subsistence, MGS4 hype, or yearly variation could help him out a lil'. Whatever may have happened in previous years, MM is only expected to beat him with 52% or so today. And if MM falters at all we could have an interesting match on our hands.

This is all presuming everything falls into place neatly and there's nothing to screw over Snake of course *cough*, so yeah...just sayin'! =/
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/22/2006 12:56:40 AM | message detail
I wouldn't discount snakes chances against megaman either. It's not like they were ever leagues apart in the first place.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
LegendarySnake | Posted 10/22/2006 12:57:11 AM | message detail
Oh, the irony of such a post.

Leonhart, welcome to the "your character bombs after having high expectations" club. <_<;

It wasn't entirely unexpected. I always allotted for the possibility of an overperformance by Snake, and it was primary reason I didn't actually take the upset in my bracket.

Either way, Squall has a much better night vote than I expected. He's already at 40.45% and we haven't hit the day yet. His day vote isn't that great though, so I doubt we'll see a huge swing with it. 43% or so by the end sounds about right.
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Deluded boy. Nobility is forever.
The Snake has triumped over the Squallid.
CyberMachine08 | Posted 10/22/2006 12:59:06 AM | message detail
Snake will go down to 54%.

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I thought lolicon would mean LOL ICON as in Lol internet - XIII is cool
*is raytan7585* in the Purg'D Prison (39 days left)
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/22/2006 12:59:32 AM | message detail
Peach has the same vote patterns as donkey kong lawls!

>_>
<_<

I'll shut up now. >_>
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
LegendarySnake | Posted 10/22/2006 1:00:23 AM | message detail
Squall would just have to start winning updates left and right for that to happen, or at least come close. Sure, he'll take off some percentage, but I don't see him consistently getting 48%+ updates.
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Deluded boy. Nobility is forever.
The Snake has triumped over the Squallid.
transience | Posted 10/22/2006 1:00:31 AM | message detail
Snake's got a good old chance against MM.. it's just that he's already beaten him twice, the second time worse than the first. sure he can turn it around, but if it's just based on MGS4 hype there's not much of a case to be made for a sizable boost. (though that wouldn't make any sense, MGS4 hype boosting him and not SSBB?) could he boost? sure, Crono has before. it just doesn't seem very likely for him to win unless MM drops. (and he might, we don't know yet.)

hopefully he gets a sprite pic vs. Mega Man! that way Mega Man can blast sprite Snake in the face!

Karma Hunter commits suicide - more at 11
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xyzzy
CyberMachine08 | Posted 10/22/2006 1:00:46 AM | message detail
Do you think Squall will get the day votes? >_>

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I thought lolicon would mean LOL ICON as in Lol internet - XIII is cool
*is raytan7585* in the Purg'D Prison (39 days left)
MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/22/2006 1:00:46 AM | message detail
Mega Man's gonna SFF Snake.

Plus if Sprite Round is next, gg Snake.
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Hispanics 1 | Whites 5
Asians 4 | Blacks 3
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/22/2006 1:02:21 AM | message detail
If Snake was say, doubling Squall right now, would you guys still take him (Squall) to beat Zelda?
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/22/2006 1:02:24 AM | message detail
Plus if Sprite Round is next, gg Snake

...Dante > Snake?
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*kills self
Commit it to memory.
LegendarySnake | Posted 10/22/2006 1:02:42 AM | message detail
...Wow, just as soon as I posted that, Squall got a 48.19% update.
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Deluded boy. Nobility is forever.
The Snake has triumped over the Squallid.
LegendarySnake | Posted 10/22/2006 1:03:21 AM | message detail
If Snake was say, doubling Squall right now, would you guys still take him (Squall) to beat Zelda?

The extent of the overperformance is irrelevant.
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Deluded boy. Nobility is forever.
The Snake has triumped over the Squallid.