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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 399

Master Moltar | Posted 10/21/2006 7:31:06 PM | message detail
Now we just have to wait until TP comes out, and then he'll really be a galaxy away from everyone else!!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Chun-Li vs. Lara - Bracket: Chun-Li - Vote: Chun-Li (42/46)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 7:32:17 PM | message detail
The only character who deserves to be a galaxy away from everyone else is the one whose game carries that same moniker.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 7:40:26 PM | message detail
...Squall's game doesn't have the word "Galaxy" in it.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 7:41:39 PM | message detail
Now we just have to wait until TP comes out, and then he'll really be a galaxy away from everyone else!!

Only 28 more days!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2006 7:43:28 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX
Posted 10/21/2006 10:28:11 PM
message detail
#099 Had Mega won that, a LOT of people would have gotten ****ing burned by him in 2003.


Not only him, but I'm willing to bet Cloud would've had less brackets behind him too.

TuRtLe
~~~
43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 7:44:17 PM | message detail
Not that it really matters. He barely had 6% as it was.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/21/2006 7:56:22 PM | message detail
That's about the percentage he'll be scoring on Link onve TP is released. ;)
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/21/2006 7:56:36 PM | message detail
Once, even!
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2006 7:57:18 PM | message detail
From SquallidSnake Posted 10/21/2006 10:44:17 PM
Not that it really matters. He barely had 6% as it was.

Jesus, didn't think it was that low <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/21/2006 8:01:58 PM | message detail
It wasn't. That was the percentage Cloud got on Sephiroth. Cloud over Link was ~13%, IIRC.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2006 8:06:08 PM | message detail
Cloud had 13.37% any stat person should know that.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 8:07:13 PM | message detail
Cloud had 13.37% percent, and us who got that match right will never let the rest of you chumps forget.

And once again, I might remind you all that I have NEVER called a Cloud/Link match incorrectly! Cloud's not losing!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 8:09:43 PM | message detail
And keep in mind that I have NEVER called Cloud/Link correctly.

And I have Link!
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/21/2006 8:11:10 PM | message detail
And once again, I might remind you all that I have NEVER called a Cloud/Link match incorrectly! Cloud's not losing!

You know what this means...Cloud's not getting to the final match with Link! 2006 will be the first year since 2k2 that we don't see Link vs. Cloud!
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/21/2006 8:11:22 PM | message detail
Snake is getting his ass kicked in around 50 minutes. <(^_^)>
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 8:12:04 PM | message detail
Yes!
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2006 8:12:10 PM | message detail
So since we're getting close to crunch time, Snake starts off with a dominating lead only to see Squall slice the percentage with the day vote?

TuRtLe
~~~
43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/21/2006 8:12:54 PM | message detail
You know what this means...Cloud's not getting to the final match with Link! 2006 will be the first year since 2k2 that we don't see Link vs. Cloud!

Link > Mario for the finals!

Joking aside, I think Cloud stands a very good chance in not being in the final two. >_>
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 8:13:13 PM | message detail
If Snake isn't comfortably ahead by the end of the first hour, watch out!
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 8:14:12 PM | message detail
If Snake isn't completely dominating from the start, he's not winning. Squall's day vote isn't anything too impressive, but I'd imagine he'd hold his own against Bowser with it.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 8:15:30 PM | message detail
I admit, Sephiroth > Cloud has a very good chance of happening...about as much as Cloud > Link, I'd say.

I decided to go with the more satisfying upset.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/21/2006 8:16:23 PM | message detail
Then you clearly went with the upset that doesn't have Link losing!
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 8:16:59 PM | message detail
No, Link losing to anyone is pretty damn satisfying, I'd say. Even Ganondorf, and we all know my stance on him.
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/21/2006 8:18:15 PM | message detail
On another topic (yeah, I know, bad time to raise this, but still...), why is it that the third round of the contest always seems to be the worst round? In the first couple rounds, we get midcarder vs. midcarder and near-elite vs. near-elite, and in the last couple rounds we get intra noble nine matches, but the third round is always noble niners crushing the rest. Oddly, even noble-nine challenging matches don't even happen in the third round. We should find a way to make the third round interesting again, impossible as it may seem.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 8:19:48 PM | message detail
Crono/Auron could be interesting. That's looking to be it at this point, since Yuna is looking very good against Chun-Li and Zelda is looking very good against Aeris.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2006 8:21:30 PM | message detail
From Karma Hunter Posted 10/21/2006 11:14:12 PM
If Snake isn't completely dominating from the start, he's not winning. Squall's day vote isn't anything too impressive, but I'd imagine he'd hold his own against Bowser with it.

I hate to look at past voting trends, since they often vary widely from match to match depending on the opponent, but I can see Squall having a good day vote. Comeback inducing? Doubt it, but he can probably cut the percentage down. KH2 has been a beast with the day vote, and tomorrow will be the ultimate test for the KH2F. (unless you think Sora has a shot against Mega Man..... lol)

TuRtLe
~~~
43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2006 8:22:57 PM | message detail
Luigi/Sonic should be interesting, if only because we'll get a good read on Luigi to find out what the hell happened in Round 1.

TuRtLe
~~~
43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 8:23:02 PM | message detail
Squall hasn't done that well with it (relative to his night vote, that is) against...well, anybody. Can't be worse than Snake though.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 8:26:06 PM | message detail
And once again, I might remind you all that I have NEVER called a Cloud/Link match incorrectly! Cloud's not losing!

And keep in mind that I have NEVER called Cloud/Link correctly.


There's a first time for everything, chums!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 8:27:26 PM | message detail
And a first is happening in about 30 minutes!
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2006 8:30:38 PM | message detail
Hmmm, seems as though MMXcalibur's site exceeded it's bandwidth limit.

TuRtLe
~~~
43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Aprosenf | Posted 10/21/2006 8:33:13 PM | message detail
Why the hell is Mega Man green in his match pic?
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If life gives you lemons, make lemonade. Then try to find someone whose life has given them vodka.
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 8:33:45 PM | message detail
...Wasn't he green in Captain N?
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 8:40:08 PM | message detail
I will say if Squall performs respectably here (or wins), my confidence in Kirby will balloon immensely. Yeah, KH2 is the difference maker, but Kirby getting that much on Squall in 2004 before the big N Boost looks really good.

Of course, it would seem the Devil Division has validated itself, so why would I be doubting Kirby in the first place? Well, I still don't like Squall's performance on Knuckles...it seems like a warning flag.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/21/2006 8:42:14 PM | message detail
Something doesn't sit right with me regarding Kirby. If Squall has really been this strong all this time, then why would Kirby go from losing to Alucard to stomping him in the span of one year with no notable releases or anything?
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Character Battle V Score - 43/48 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart
MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/21/2006 8:43:23 PM | message detail
Did anyone here actually pick Squall > Snake?

Because I did.
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Hispanics 1 | Whites 5
Asians 4 | Blacks 3
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 8:45:43 PM | message detail
Kirby has been steadily increasing every year for little or no reason. He shouldn't be a cause of doubt here. You saw what he did against Bowser, someone who nearly beat Snake. Call it overperformance all you want, but it wouldn't be to a great extent. Yeah, what happened against Alucard was weird, but Alucard was actually still rather strong then.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/21/2006 8:45:49 PM | message detail
Cloud not making the final two makes no sense to me. People always hype Sephy beating Cloud, and it's never happened.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/21/2006 8:46:38 PM | message detail
Link will make sure that Sephiroth gets by Cloud, Ulti-bay-bee!
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/21/2006 8:46:54 PM | message detail
The only upset I can really see happening in the BR is Crono > Mario.
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Character Battle V Score - 43/48 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 8:47:08 PM | message detail
Hero SFF is about the dumbest thing...

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 8:47:23 PM | message detail
Cloud not making the final two makes no sense to me. People always hype Sephy beating Cloud, and it's never happened.

It's not Sephiroth beating Cloud, it's weird 'Hero SFF' between Link and Cloud to give Sephy the edge against the latter in a three-way poll. Of course Cloud would wallop Sephy in a one-on-one match.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2006 8:47:43 PM | message detail
Round 2

Patriot Divisional Semifinals- Match 1

Solid Snake (1) vs Squall Leonhart (4)


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2515
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2516

In the first round, both characters perform decently, with Snake blowing out newcomer Soma while Squall lays down one of the ugliest SSF beatdowns in contest history against Meg Ryan.

Back to the male half for round 2, and things look to start off interestingly enough. The casual bracket-favourite will get a chance to prove his mettle against one of the strongest non-Noble Niners, Squall. Looking back at 2k2, Snake beat Squall 65-35, but this is a VERY different Squall. Of the Square characters that were affected by Kingdom Hearts in 2003, Squall was arguably the one who boosted the most, thanks to his prominent cameo role.

Using last year's stats:

Snake 52.45% 49,369
Squall 47.55% 44,761
TOTAL VOTES 94,130


All evidence so far has indicated that these values are fairly reliable, with Vincent and Dante proving that the Devil Division wasn't overrated (at least significantly) last year through Vincent/Crono. This spells good news for Squall, as random fluctuation could turn the tides his way.

But after Snake's E3 2006 showing, alot of people are taking him to win the whole shebang. Snake's upcoming game, Metal Gear Solid 4 wowed fans while his surprise (understatement) appearance in the trailer for the next-gen Smash Bros. game is likely the main source of his support. Snake's performance may give us some idea of whether or not hype actually translates to contest strength.

But don't count Squall out yet. He's also had reason to significantly boost since last year, and that reason is the sequel to Kingdom Hearts, which has given us overperformances from Auron, Kairi, Axel and Riku already. Once again, Squall had a prominent role and if he manages to pull the upset, he will be the first character to break the Noble Nine tradition, something that only Bowser and Frog have come close to doing.

We all know how Snake likes to perform all over the place depending on his pictures, and that is obvious from looking at some of his sprite round matches. Were this round a sprite round, I'd have given Squall the edge to win this matchup. Instead, Snake got an "Old Snake" pic from the MGS4 trailer. I can't see the picture being a factor in this match.

Some people have brought up the apparant fanbase overlap between FF7 and MGS that was evident in the game contest, but I'm not a big fan of that theory, especially when translating to the character battle.

Expect a good match where Snake should jump to an early lead and be challenged during the day.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Snake with 51.25%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Snake
TuRtLe's Vote: Snake

TuRtLe
~~~
43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 8:48:05 PM | message detail
This "Hero SFF" stuff doesn't make any sense to me.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/21/2006 8:49:05 PM | message detail
From TheCruelAngel Posted 10/21/2006 11:46:38 PM #139
Link will make sure that Sephiroth gets by Cloud, Ulti-bay-bee!

Stop bringing our bedroom habits in public, ass :(

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
Draco1214 | Posted 10/21/2006 8:49:56 PM | message detail
Kirby has been steadily increasing every year for little or no reason.

The increase he had between 2002 and 2003 was about 1%. Why would he all of a sudden balloon in strength in one year despite having no notable releases or anything that would indicate a large jump in strength.
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Character Battle V Score - 43/48 points
Current Prediction - Solid Snake vs. Squall Leonhart
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/21/2006 8:50:26 PM | message detail
We haven't had anything like the Battle Royale before, if you exclude those series favorite characters polls. Don't count out on weird things not happening. =P
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2006 8:50:34 PM | message detail
From SquallidSnake Posted 10/21/2006 11:48:05 PM
This "Hero SFF" stuff doesn't make any sense to me.

I wouldn't be surprised if that's what happens. Not to mention Sephy seems to have a bigger core fanbase that would vote him over everything.

TuRtLe
~~~
43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 8:51:12 PM | message detail
We haven't had anything like the Battle Royale before, if you exclude those series favorite characters polls. Don't count out on weird things not happening

I'll laugh when it goes almost exactly like expected.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/21/2006 8:51:26 PM | message detail
Stop bringing our bedroom habits in public, ass :(

I CANT HELP IT SEXY OK
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.