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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 399

SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 4:49:43 PM | message detail
Just got in from UT/'Bama...and go Big Orange!

Yes! That was awesome!

But I'd almost expect there to be some overlap between Snake and Dante. Too bad we won't find out this year.

(And it's not because Dante won't be there!!)
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 4:51:04 PM | message detail
Snake/Yoshi might have that SFF show up in a tiny amount as well. Yoshi being Nintendo should cancel out any boost that Snake gets from SSBB.

I'm going to take a rusty scalpel now and attempt to pry my memory of reading that out of my brain.

Oops, there goes my graduation memories. >_<
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2006 4:52:42 PM | message detail
Squall performs better than the winner of Yoshi/Dante

TuRtLe
~~~
43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 5:02:23 PM | message detail
Yeah, he beats Dante when they face off next round. No worries there.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/21/2006 5:31:05 PM | message detail
What the... I mentioned it not to praise a Console Contest, but to bury it!

Anyways, if it DOES happen, don't bet against the NES. Not only does/did 78% of the site own one,

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1514

but the nostalgia factor is going to be through the roof, with it being the system that so many gamers cut their teeth with. Also keep in mind that 78 is 4% higher than the number of GameFAQs users who ever owned a PSX.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2326

As for PSX/PS2/SNES, I don't see how anyone could bet against the SNES after seeing it recently put up numbers like this.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2215

Oh, check the Sega poll from the day afterwards as well.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2216

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thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator
thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives
Kaxon | Posted 10/21/2006 6:11:31 PM | message detail
The poll where the N64 beats the NES makes me want to cry.
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....TCELES B HSUP
Big Bob | Posted 10/21/2006 6:17:52 PM | message detail
I'm confident in Snake. He ain't losing to Squall.

In fact, I'm counting on Sonic to beat Crono's percent on Vincent, Crono to get Snake's percent on Bowser, and for Mega Man to do so poorly on Ryu that people will jump on the Sora > Mega Man bandwagon.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 6:22:07 PM | message detail
Squall beating Snake is more likely than all three of those scenarios, in my opinion. As much as I'd love to see Sonic beat Vincent worse than Crono, I just ain't seein' it.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/21/2006 6:23:12 PM | message detail
Sora > Mega Man!
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caps
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 6:23:16 PM | message detail
I'm quite confident in the old man too.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/21/2006 6:35:42 PM | message detail
Statistically, Squall has a real chance. However, I feel that Snake is going to pull out a major creaming out of his ass. I wouldn't be surprized at all if Snake got over 60%. >_<
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/21/2006 6:37:35 PM | message detail
Continuing my poor bury job... Here are the all-time "Have You Ever Owned..." rankings, based on the most recent polls available.

Have You Ever Owned...

1 PS2 81.71
2 GB 80.33
3 N64 79.11
4 NES 78.18
5 GC 77.42
6 GBA 74.72
7 PSX 73.58
8 Xbox 48.29
9 DS 46.48
10 DC 40.54
11 Atari 35.67
12 PSP 25.90
13 360 16.14
14 VB 13.25
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And as for that nostalgia factor I mentioned,

What company made the first video game system you ever owned?
Atari 18.4% 15892
Microsoft 0.87% 750
Nintendo 59.48% 51373
Sega 11.9% 10282
Sony 4.31% 3725
Other 5.04% 4354
TOTAL VOTES 86376

Too bad we can't tell between NES and SNES there... but you'd have to imagine the NES has the lion's share.

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thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator
thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/21/2006 6:39:27 PM | message detail
Couldn't find numbers on the SNES or Gen. If you find any, link 'em.

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thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator
thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 6:41:17 PM | message detail
I'll be honest. The overperformance has had me worried from the beginning. It's probably the main thing that kept me from taking this risk in my bracket. It's a very realistic possibility, but I believe that the two are close enough that it may not happen.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2006 6:42:05 PM | message detail
Something's wrong with the division.

Aeon Division
(1) Joanna Dark
(8) Cortana Yuna
Joanna Dark Yuna

(4) Chun Li
(5) Kasumi
(3) Lara Croft
(6) Alyx Vance Chun Li
Lara Croft
(2) Solid Snake
(7) Soma Cruz


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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/21/2006 6:43:02 PM | message detail
NEW AND EXCITING

>_>

sorry
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CB5 Points: 43/46, Current Oracle placement: 29/165
Now playing: Okami
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/21/2006 6:43:41 PM | message detail
Man, I don't see anyone in the oracle taking Squall...I thought this would be more debated. I guess it's Snake not having a sprite that's making everyone not worry.
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caps
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 6:44:53 PM | message detail
I'm half hoping that Snake loses (well...maybe considerably less than half) just so we don't have to deal with the Noble Nine nonsense arguments that clutter this board every year. Sure, we'll have hordes of people trying to make an 'Elite Eight' in the aftermath, but Snake should put an end to that after SSBB and MGS4.

If anyone tries to shorten it to the Super Seven or fewer...they don't get to stay. -_-

I've been a proponent of calling them "The Nine" for a while now though...just the nine mainstays since 2002, nothing fancy about it.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 6:45:55 PM | message detail
Man, I don't see anyone in the oracle taking Squall...I thought this would be more debated. I guess it's Snake not having a sprite that's making everyone not worry.

Or maybe people usually make picks without letting personal bias get in the way (Peach is so getting 60%+ on Jill!).
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2006 6:49:32 PM | message detail
There was no such think of the noble 9 back in 2k2, it was called the Big 5 (which was Mario, Cloud, Solid Snake, Link and Sephiroth).
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/21/2006 6:50:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, because I really love Squall, and Snake has never choked against weak opponents.

What is the point of this? How dare I wonder why a match doesn't have as much debate as I thought! It's exactly the same as declaring who will win the match by 60%!

Is it just too boring to go through the stats topics without arrogantly accusing people and condeming their opinions?
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caps
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 6:51:38 PM | message detail
Man, I don't see anyone in the oracle taking Squall...I thought this would be more debated. I guess it's Snake not having a sprite that's making everyone not worry.

Actually, I would imagine that this is the reason:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=955

And the odd thing is, despite Squall's strength, most of the board seems not to be giving him much of a chance. Yet if you put any of the other big three near elites (Vincent, Ganondorf, and Bowser) in this spot, there are probably quite a few who take it. If you put Squall against Ganondorf, I bet it's overwhelmingly in favor of Ganon.

...Which would have made it all the sweeter.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 6:51:51 PM | message detail
Forgive me if I don't give you the benefit of the doubt when it comes to arguments and bias, partystar.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/21/2006 6:52:10 PM | message detail
I love the Noble Nine. They are a group that stands above the rest and, no matter the odds, will not lose to anyone outside of their group. They are, for all intents and purposes, this contest's gods. Sure, there are characters who can try to challenge them, but they will never succeed. To kill such a noble group would be... well, saddening.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2006 6:52:11 PM | message detail
Match XLI: (1) Solid Snake vs. (4) Squall Leonhart

Previous Matches

Solid Snake
Defeated Soma Cruz, 82.15% - 17.85%

Squall Leonhart
Defeated Tidus, 72.02% - 27.98%

Analysis:

Last round Snake showed that only Alucard has any strength from Castlevania and even then he’s dropping. Also not only did Squall beat Tidus he destroyed the main character of FFX, where Rikku, Yuna and most likely Auron made it to round 3. I never really expected that Final Fantasy characters could destroy each other like that.

Ever since the Noble 9 was created back in 2k3 there have been people wanting to see it fall and this year is no exception. Both Squall and Vincent have been hyped to be able to win their matches in what some may believe to be the last time in a while for the Noble 9 to be in danger, but does Squall have a chance?

This year all Solid Snake has going for him is hype from MGS4 and SSBB which are to be released in the next year. Like always I don’t think hype is that big of a factor since this is a site that gives information about released games, not unreleased. It won’t hurt Snake, but I don’t see him having new found strength from hype.

One thing this match could tell us is whether there is FF/MGS SFF. In the games contest it is agreed by many that FFVII overperformed on MGS and the same could be said about Sephiroth/Liquid Snake. The reason that these two totally different series could SFF each other was because they both came from the Playstation. They were both very popular games and many people probably owned both games, the same can be said about FFVIII. I think there is SFF between FFVII and MGS, but not with VIII. It sounds weird, but I don’t think MGS and FFVIII share as much of a fanbase as does VII and MGS so any SFF would probably be minimal.

Another thing that still is in question is the Devil Division. I know people (including me at the time) seem to think it is legit, but really we haven’t had a solid reading on it. Last round Terra and Kerrigan versed each other, Squall was in a SFF match, Dante may have been against an overrated Ryu H. (couldn’t have been all Luigi), Vincent has had releases since last year and in this round Terra was destroyed by Zelda. The Devil Division could still be overrated and we might not even know it. Squall was in KH2, but I don’t see him taking much of a huge boost.

I think this match may be like Snake/Zelda last year where Zelda was close, but Snake was really never in real danger of losing. The male half looks to be really entertaining compare to the female half with at least five matches being interesting.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Solid Snake over Squall Leonhart

charmander6000’s Prediction: Snake wins, 54.27% - 45.73%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/21/2006 6:54:00 PM | message detail
Forgive me if I don't give you the benefit of the doubt when it comes to arguments and bias, partystar.

I'll take that as a "Whoops, I didn't realize partystar could actually say something serious, because I just assume everything he says is a joke. Silly me."
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caps
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 6:54:04 PM | message detail
I love the Noble Nine. They are a group that stands above the rest and, no matter the odds, will not lose to anyone outside of their group. They are, for all intents and purposes, this contest's gods. Sure, there are characters who can try to challenge them, but they will never succeed. To kill such a noble group would be... well, saddening.

This idea is why I'm hoping the idea will be dismantled. From a contest standpoint, "Noble Nine always wins," is horribly predictable.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Yesmar | Posted 10/21/2006 6:54:35 PM | message detail
Random Question:

Are the Noble Nine, Ryu and Dante the only characters to have been in every contest and win at least win match?
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Yesmar | Posted 10/21/2006 6:55:18 PM | message detail
*win at least one match.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/21/2006 6:55:29 PM | message detail

This idea is why I'm hoping the idea will be dismantled. From a contest standpoint, "Noble Nine always wins," is horribly predictable.


But the characters need someone to look up to. :(
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 6:55:41 PM | message detail
...This is probably one of the few times I'm going to do more than just scan analyses. I'm getting tense just waiting for this one.

And as much as I hate this topic's mentality of calling matches by the freeze, I just have a feeling that this will be one of those matches we have an idea if it's worth watching within 15 minutes.

If Squall's within 55/45, stay glued to your screen. You may be seeing history in the making!

If Snake's got 60%+, he's in no danger. Anything in between, and he probably wins, but not decisively.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 6:56:21 PM | message detail
Are the Noble Nine, Ryu and Dante the only characters to have been in every contest and win at least win match?

Since Knuckles missed out this year, yes.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/21/2006 6:56:52 PM | message detail
Snake with 82.34%
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CB5 Points: 43/46, Current Oracle placement: 29/165
Now playing: Okami
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 6:57:14 PM | message detail
So of the characters that have won a contest match every year...Ryu is the weakest?

And the funnier thing is that he's beaten the other non-Noble who's won a contest match every year.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 6:58:15 PM | message detail
And Ryu's also in that elite group of having no loss worse than 60% as well. Odd that his worst loss came in his only loss to somebody outside the Noble Nine.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
charmander6000 | Posted 10/21/2006 6:58:28 PM | message detail
Are the Noble Nine, Ryu and Dante the only characters to have been in every contest and win at least win match?

Yes, CATS, Freeman, Squall, Tidus, Alucard and Kirby have lost in the first round, but have been in every contest.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 6:59:11 PM | message detail
Although technically, Cloud didn't win a match last year.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 7:00:40 PM | message detail
Well, Cloud's out!

Though hopefully we can kick Link out this year as well!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 7:02:28 PM | message detail
Though hopefully we can kick Link out this year as well!

HAW HAW!

It's practically a LAW that Link Always Wins!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 7:03:05 PM | message detail
...So winning anything in the Battle Royale doesn't count?
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 7:04:02 PM | message detail
No, it's just that Cloud will dominate the Battle Royale from pillar to post !! Book it, bank it, eat it on a stick and shake it at 'im!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
wavedash101 | Posted 10/21/2006 7:04:18 PM | message detail
In the battle royale...unless Link gets out first, he beats someone...aint gonna happen KH
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 7:05:09 PM | message detail
Battle Royale wins aren't shared, people! Damn communists.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 7:08:09 PM | message detail
Link is actually going to win every single match in the Battle Royale!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 7:08:42 PM | message detail
Actually, Squall is!
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/21/2006 7:09:45 PM | message detail
The only match in the BR that I might see someone else win is the last. Link should take the rest easily.
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CB5 Points: 43/46, Current Oracle placement: 29/165
Now playing: Okami
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 7:13:42 PM | message detail
Squall's losing to Snake!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/21/2006 7:23:47 PM | message detail
There was no such think of the noble 9 back in 2k2, it was called the Big 5 (which was Mario, Cloud, Solid Snake, Link and Sephiroth).

No love for Mega Man/Sonic? Looking back at 2k2, it seems as though Mega Man was probably the most impressive until his match with Sephiroth, which by today's standards is un-freaking-believable.

TuRtLe
~~~
43/48 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/21/2006 7:28:11 PM | message detail
Had Mega won that, a LOT of people would have gotten ****ing burned by him in 2003.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 7:29:19 PM | message detail
Not to mention 2k2's X-Stats would have looked insane. Link would have appeared to be a galaxy away from everyone else after Link/Mega SFF.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.