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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 398

PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/21/2006 8:49:37 AM | message detail
It's not happening... but it depends what you consider a comeback. Does % after 5 minutes count? 1 minute?

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/21/2006 8:50:40 AM | message detail
What was the biggest percentages comeback ever?

I was just wondering that actually. <_<

I suppose, excluding the first 30 minutes which are always crazy. The biggest I can think of was Master Chief v CATS. Which swung about 10%.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/21/2006 8:51:05 AM | message detail
How about percent after 3+ hours?

Master Chief made a good Crono wrecking by bringing him down almost 8%
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/21/2006 8:52:27 AM | message detail
Oh, and he did equally as well against CATS. But I don't know if actually being ahead and just increasing your % more counts as a comeback...
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/21/2006 8:52:27 AM | message detail
How about percent after 3+ hours?

Master Chief made a good Crono wrecking by bringing him down almost 8%


Oh... you mean like that? I thought he was talking about how much % has someone ever been down and still won the match.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/21/2006 8:53:01 AM | message detail
Knuckles swung about 7% too after things settled down.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
Yesmar | Posted 10/21/2006 8:53:07 AM | message detail
Percentage wise, the largest comeback is like 6%-7%.

Master Chief went from 33% to 39% against Crono

Duck Hunt went from 43% to almost 50% against Donkey Kong

Super Mario RPG went from 49% to 56% against SFII (LOL)
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
consolefreak | Posted 10/21/2006 8:53:54 AM | message detail
Frog - Riku was a pretty big swing as well.
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CB: 44/46. Today: Chun Li vs. Lara. Tomorrow: Snake vs. Squall.
Not_1 | Posted 10/21/2006 8:55:30 AM | message detail
GOD, XIII YOU'RE SUCH A NOOB FANBOY, THE PERSON WHO YOU PICKED TO WIN IN A CLOSE UPSET IS LOSING BY LIKE 5%, AND WINNING UPDATES, OH MAN WOW WHAT A LOSER.

In fact, I don't think XIII has Lara winning. He's just a big fan.
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And I need all the love I can get
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/21/2006 8:56:02 AM | message detail
It's awesome to see Lara winning multiple updates all over the place... and I don't even like her!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/21/2006 8:56:44 AM | message detail
In fact, I don't think XIII has Lara winning. He's just a big fan.

That would make it even worse, though I do think he picked her. Either way, I was mocking Ulti if you couldn't tell. >_>

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/21/2006 8:57:25 AM | message detail
Legend has done a lot for Lara. She seems to have actual strength this year, as opposed to being an anti-voted wreak in previous years.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
therealmnm | Posted 10/21/2006 8:59:32 AM | message detail
Snake/Squall is awesome. Snake's old pic may hurt some though, but I doubt it'll make the difference here.

Any negative reaction for Snake due to the "Old Snake" pic would be offset by MGS4 PS3 positive hype, as well as SSBB. It won't make much of a difference in his match against Squall. I expect Snake to be even stronger this year with Subsistence and the next gen stuff he has. "Old Snake" isn't nearly as bad as people want to make it seem. The MGS fanbase has already accepted it for the most part and don't seem to have a problem with it as a whole. It's nothing like the backlash that "Celda" got. Plus it's not like this is Solid **** redux...
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/21/2006 8:59:33 AM | message detail
I don't know. The only year that Lara really disappointed was that match against Samus, which I never really thought was an indicator of her actual strength.

I think she's performing about as well as she did in 2002, 2003. Though she probably owes it to Legends that she can perform at her old level
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Yesmar | Posted 10/21/2006 9:00:35 AM | message detail
Wow. I was looking at old matches, and Zero actually won his last update against Mario. That's pretty damn impressive.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/21/2006 9:00:56 AM | message detail
She's halted her decline and turned it right around to becoming a character in the ascent.

Not many characters are capable of doing that.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/21/2006 9:02:03 AM | message detail
Well there's really no solid evidence that she was ever in decline other than the fact that she didn't make the 2005 contest.

If you're going to take her 2004 value for real, then be prepared to do the same this year for Terra, Joanna, etc.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
consolefreak | Posted 10/21/2006 9:02:35 AM | message detail
Any negative reaction for Snake due to the "Old Snake" pic would be offset by MGS4 PS3 positive hype, as well as SSBB. It won't make much of a difference in his match against Squall. I expect Snake to be even stronger this year with Subsistence and the next gen stuff he has. "Old Snake" isn't nearly as bad as people want to make it seem. The MGS fanbase has already accepted it for the most part and don't seem to have a problem with it as a whole. It's nothing like the backlash that "Celda" got. Plus it's not like this is Solid **** redux...

I'm expecting Snake to be stronger than last year as well (he wins my male bracket), and I don't expect it to make a difference tomorrow either (like I said). I'm just saying Squall may overperform a bit.

And I, personally, don't have a problem with old Snake at all. He looks awesome.
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CB: 44/46. Today: Chun Li vs. Lara. Tomorrow: Snake vs. Squall.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/21/2006 9:03:24 AM | message detail
Eh... I don't think it did that much for her. She's underrated in 2K4 thanks to a Samus overperformance.

Sorry, but Chun-Li 2K5 isn't going to get 70% on Lara 2K4, and only 54% on Lara 2K3. Still, I think Lara would have dropped some from 2K3 (not as drastic as 2K4 makes it appear obviously), 8% dropoff in one year? No thanks. Plus Chun-Li being slightly overrated, and you have me thinking Chunners gets 52.5% in this match. She'll probably do better than that, but it's not much different. Either way, I don't think Legends gave her any sort of massive boost.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/21/2006 9:03:57 AM | message detail
Check her seeding. (Changing the 2 to a 4 for consistency)

1 - 7 - 15 - N/A - 4

If the performances don't do it for you, the seeding swing must.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/21/2006 9:05:05 AM | message detail
thanks to a Samus overperformance.

Since when did Samus overperform? <__<
There's just as much evidence to say that she underperformed, given the way Sonic boosted like crazy the following year.
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President Of Board 8. (10/14/2006 onwards)
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/21/2006 9:06:37 AM | message detail
I'm sure she dropped, but it's not to the extent of 8% in one year, and then making that 8% back up from Legends. To think that is as insane as thinking Shadow is really worth 45% on Mario. Legends at best boosted her back up to her 2K3 value, though I'm skeptical if she doesn't manage better than 54%. If the match ended 55-45, I'd give Lara 21% on BL.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/21/2006 9:07:28 AM | message detail
Since when did Samus overperform? <__<

On Lara.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/21/2006 9:11:11 AM | message detail
In the first 5.5 hours, Chun-Li increased her lead by 6,000. In the 6.5 hours since then, Chun-Li has increased her lead by 1,000. That dropoff is so much more staggering to me when put that way instead of just simple %.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
therealmnm | Posted 10/21/2006 9:12:23 AM | message detail
If you're going to take her 2004 value for real, then be prepared to do the same this year for Terra, Joanna, etc.

I think this just contest is just showing that everything in this contest isn't linear like this topic would have you believe. While linearity generally holds up for these contests, there are certain instances where it doesn't. For some characters, it looks like there's a "threshold" point where a great deal of their support collapses in a nonlinear fashion.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Devil May Cry, Mega Man ZX
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/21/2006 9:14:30 AM | message detail
And this comes into play far more often in fodderific characters, which is where the whole "Fodder Fluctuation Factor" came into play. It's not really a completely new thing we're seeing just from this contest, it's just that it's being beat into our heads day after day thanks to seeing the most fodderific half of bracket ever.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Who Cares? | Posted 10/21/2006 9:22:05 AM | message detail
...And for the first time in like 8 hours, Chun increases her %. Finally decided to put a band-aid on that morning vote eh? >_>
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Currently giving Croft a Kikoken to the face!
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/21/2006 9:22:47 AM | message detail
Now it's time for a .06% dropoff!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Who Cares? | Posted 10/21/2006 9:23:50 AM | message detail
Heh, indeed!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: Currently giving Croft a Kikoken to the face!
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/21/2006 9:24:35 AM | message detail
Well, maybe Chun-Li just sucks with the morning vote and isn't so bad after that. So... maybe it won't drop anymore!
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/21/2006 9:26:38 AM | message detail
And since the topics pretty quiet right now... about that whole discussion of prizes and brackets in relation to the contest. Winning prizes would just be beneficial, I get into these contests because I want to create the best bracket, get every match right. Not for the prizes, but for the pride. Self-pride mind you, I don't need people telling me how great I am (because I already know!), it'd just feel awesome to be the first person to get a perfect bracket in one of these (No, BSE doesn't count). The prizes would just be an added bonus from having the best bracket out there.


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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 10/21/2006 9:49:18 AM | message detail
Updaters times are screwed up again. I smell shenanigans.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
Big Bob | Posted 10/21/2006 10:01:31 AM | message detail
This division is so wasted. It's not just the crap division, it's the almost division: filled with matches that are just out of reach of being debatable.

Joanna/Cortana looks tough, but think about it for 2 seconds and you see Joanna will win it easily. And she did. Same with today's match.

And Yuna was the clear winner of the division, and it's really hard for someone to argue Chun Li instead.
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/21/2006 10:01:33 AM | message detail
GOD, XIII YOU'RE SUCH A NOOB FANBOY, THE PERSON WHO YOU PICKED TO WIN IN A CLOSE UPSET IS LOSING BY LIKE 5%, AND WINNING UPDATES, OH MAN WOW WHAT A LOSER.

XD, I laughed. Even though I actually have Chun winning.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
AC2K6 Score: 42/44 Today: Chun (euw)
KingBartz | Posted 10/21/2006 10:04:12 AM | message detail
lol smurf and his shenanigans
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 42/46 Today's pick: Chun-Li
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 10/21/2006 10:05:49 AM | message detail
What possible reason would I have to screw anything up in this match? >_<

Geez..
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
HaRRicH | Posted 10/21/2006 10:10:37 AM | message detail
Lara's iconic, even today. And she's certainly no more over the hill than the likes of Mario. She deserves better than being a lower midcarder.

Don't start Smurf.


Check her seeding. (Changing the 2 to a 4 for consistency)

1 - 7 - 15 - N/A - 4

If the performances don't do it for you, the seeding swing must.


Dammit, you already did.





Anyway, Lara's kicked a lot of ass since last night, and it shouldn't be over yet...but Lara will NOT come back to win, as I think everyone already knows. Good show Lara.
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KingBartz | Posted 10/21/2006 10:12:18 AM | message detail
There's no way Lara could come back.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 42/46 Today's pick: Chun-Li
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 10:40:10 AM | message detail
Wow...Chun-Li dropped off a LOT...Did Ryu lose this much?
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 10/21/2006 10:41:47 AM | message detail
She won't win the match, but she won back her pride on GameFAQs. Which is Step 1 on her way back to the top.
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/21/2006 10:42:39 AM | message detail
This is awesome. I really appreciate that most of the stats topic are impressed by Lara's performance...despite the hate for TR and her on this board. Woo. =D

And if Lara can break 45, I'd consider that a moral victory.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
AC2K6 Score: 44/46 Today: Chun (euw)
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 10:48:32 AM | message detail
Based on Lara's current percentage (44.44%):

Samus Aran – 41.69%
Princess Zelda – 33.71%
Tifa Lockhart – 33.57%
Aeris Gainsborough – 32.81%
Rikku – 26.55%
Yuna – 26.10%
KOS-MOS – 25.17%
Chun-Li – 24.92%
Princess Peach – 23.75%
Jill Valentine – 23.74%
Kairi – 22.15%
Lara Croft – 22.15%
Claire Redfield – 21.23%
Lara Croft – 19.94%
Marle – 19.83%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 18.03%
Amy Rose – 17.40%
The Boss – 17.09%
Ada Wong – 16.86%
Amy Rose – 16.70%
Ivy Valentine – 15.99%
Kasumi – 15.58%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
Terra Branford – 13.85%
Celes Chere – 13.30%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 13.28%
Joanna Dark – 11.46%
Sarah Kerrigan – 11.45%
Roll – 10.81%
Alyx Vance – 9.94%
Carmen Sandiego – 9.38%
Cortana – 9.11%
Jade – 8.13%
Princess Daisy – 8.03%

Wow, Alyx Vance may actually break 10% on BL at this rate.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
PlatinumSmurf | Posted 10/21/2006 10:49:23 AM | message detail

Lara Croft – 22.15%
Claire Redfield – 21.23%
Lara Croft – 19.94%


Lara > Lara FTW!
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Smurf
The Cream of Sonic Fanboyism
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 10:50:55 AM | message detail
Oh right, forgot to delete the initial projection from last night. Oh well.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/21/2006 10:52:50 AM | message detail

KOS-MOS – 25.17%
Chun-Li – 24.92%


That is awesome
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/21/2006 11:30:24 AM | message detail
I refuse to believe Alyx Vance is over 10% on BL. Even though it kills my other upset (DAMN IT).
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Mikey Lenetia | Posted 10/21/2006 11:56:06 AM | message detail
Amy Rose – 17.40%
The Boss – 17.09%
Ada Wong – 16.86%
Amy Rose – 16.70%


Amy > The Boss > Ada > ... Amy...?
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SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 11:59:28 AM | message detail
Okay, I get it. I keep forgetting to delete initial projections.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/21/2006 12:10:46 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm almost inclined to call Yuna > Chun-Li a lock at this point.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/21/2006 12:13:51 PM | message detail
Haha! I was so right !!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.