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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 398

KamikazePotato | Posted 10/20/2006 7:14:30 PM | message detail
Gordon Freeman looks the best out of everyone, including Squall. First match pic we've seen of him where he doesn't look look stupid or completely depressed.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
KingBartz | Posted 10/20/2006 7:24:50 PM | message detail
Todays topic has just been dead. Of course, with a match like this, you can't wonder why...
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 40/44 Today's pick: Yuna
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/20/2006 7:49:50 PM | message detail
Squall needs to get out in the sun a bit more!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
KingBartz | Posted 10/20/2006 7:50:36 PM | message detail
What Squall needs to do is to stop cutting himself. Maybe a bit of red would return to his cheeks.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 40/44 Today's pick: Yuna
creativename | Posted 10/20/2006 8:25:41 PM | message detail
I'm getting concerned about tomorrow's match...Chun-Li just looks awful. And considering this site's demographics, I wouldn't be surprised if voters were more superficial in their votes for female character pics than with males.

Also I had totally forgotten that Chun-Li was overrated through Bower until someone just brought it up. That means if Lara has recovered her strength, and/or Samus/Lara was a huge fluke, Lara could actually win.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2006 8:29:11 PM | message detail
Aeon Division: Round 2 - Match 40 – (3)Chun-Li vs. (2)Lara Croft

Moltar’s Analysis

Chun-Li
Round 1 – 68.74% vs. Kasumi (31.26%)

Ouch, destruction.

Lara
Round 1 – 77.55% vs. Alyx (22.45%)

Ouch, destruction x2.

With both females looking good in Round 1, we might have a match on our hands here. Right? RIGHT?!? OH YEAH, IT’S GOING TO BE INTENSE!

Bleh, who am I kidding, I can’t get excited for this. I mean, look at the next two matches. Snake/Squall and Yoshi/Dante. Now THOSE I can get excited over. For now though, we just get this.

This match is only projected to be close if Lara has climbed back to her 2003 value…yeah, I don’t think so. A new game with good sales and reviews will help her up from her pitiful 2004 performance, but not to Chun-Li’s level, or even her 2003 level. If Lara can pull 40% on Chunners, it’s a moral victory.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Chun-Li will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Chun-Li: 61% - Lara: 39%



Ulti’s Analysis

*looks at Samus/Ada*

Yeah, blowing away joke fodder doesn't mean that you won't suck ass later on. I don't get how people are hyping Lara. No one gave a crap about Legends.

Prediction: Chun-Li with 65.45%



HM’s Analysis

Chun-Li

Previous Matches:

Chun-Li – 68.74% -- 71,106

Kasumi – 31.26% -- 32,611

Lara Croft

Previous Matches:

Lara Croft – 77.55% -- 75,464

Alyx Vance – 22.45% -- 21,850

This match is pretty much a foregone conclusion. Some people like to entertain the idea of Lara Croft winning here, but after Chun-Li’s dominate performance on Kasumi, it’s safe to say that any talk of that should have been ceased then. Lara does have a chance to make it respectable, but Chun-Li isn’t going to lose this match.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Chun-Li

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Chun-Li – 55% ; Lara Croft – 45%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Chun-Li



Yoblazer’s Analysis

The round's last female match is kinda good, but not really. After Lara's phenomenal performance against Alyx Vance, some people are wondering if today's match will have a disputed winner. Personally, I'm not sold. Alyx is the weakest of the weak, so of course a stronger, infinitely more recognizable character like Lara will run all over her. To the GameFAQs visitors, I believe that Chun-Li is nearly as recognizable as Lara, but the Street Fighter pioneer is much more liked. To me, that's really all there is to it. Chun-Li wins it with ease.

My prediction: Chun-Li def. Lara Croft (57-43)



Lopen’s Analysis

Lara Croft got about 80% on her opponent last round. That was pretty hilarious. Not that it really meant anything. Well, it made me laugh, that means something.

This match will be where we get the answer to the question that's on all of our minds: "Did Lara's new release of Tomb Raider: Some Game really help her?" Me? I don't think so. I expect Lara to slightly outdo Kasumi here, and that's about it.

Oh, oh… that's not about it. What else can we get from this? We should watch out for what Chun Li gets on Lara Croft. Basically, will she do better or worse than Yuna did against Joanna Dark? I'm thinking if she does around equal or better, you've got to see Chun Li as the favorite next round. As washed up as Lara Croft is, I'd have take her to beat Joanna Dark without thinking too hard about it. Now, if Chun Li does worse, or a lot worse… Yuna's looking good. But even then, you've always got to consider Tomb Raider: Some Game. That's an X-Factor on Lara, no doubt!

Lopen's prediction: Chun Li with 71.12%
creativename | Posted 10/20/2006 8:29:21 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2006 8:30:23 PM | message detail
KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

Chun-Li

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 34th Place [22.84%]

Chun-Li looks on par with 2002 Cloud last round with that beating of Kasumi. Yay 2k2 Stats!

Lara Croft

Summer 2002 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 27th Place [21.80%]

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 37th Place [ 22.11% ]

Summer 2004 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 53rd Place [13.91% ]

Lara gets the biggest blowout of her career last round, over the likes of such foes as Chop Chop Master Onion and Ryo Hazuki. Does this mean that she's any stronger, or that Alyx Vance is one of the most pathetic chumps in the history of the contest?

...do you really need an answer to that?

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Chun-Li: N/A
Lara Croft: Tomb Raider: Legend (Multi)

Upcoming Releases

Chun-Li: N/A
Lara Croft: N/A

This match has become *almost* semi-debatable lately! I blame the female bracket. Anywho, if Chun-Li is overrated significantly from the Dream Division and Lara is back to her old 'glory', I guess you can make a case for her. But I don't see the Street Fighter fanbase faltering her to the lack of Tomb Raider fanbase. That's all I need.

Karma Hunter's Vote: The Strongest Woman in the World! (aka Chun-Li)

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Chun-Li with 63.74%.

I'm too lazy to even change my prediction from Chun-Li/Kasumi.

Upset Potential: 10%

Lara looks pretty hot in that picture and Chun-Li could be overrated. Lara could overperform, but winning would be a BIG stretch.

Upset Prediction: Lara Croft with 53.4%%



Guest’s Analysis - Who Cares?

Aside from being disappointed that Chunny wasn’t setup to face Peach, the first thing that came to mind when I saw the Chun-Li/Lara setup when the bracket was released was “Trap match for casuals.” You may or may not seen them, but every once in a while you’d have topics like “Yuna or Lara” or “Chun-Li > Lara. Bad pick?” made by casuals & contest noobs gracing the board.

Not that there’s anything wrong with that, hell that’s the very people who are being targeting for this match. Just look that the prediction percentage for Kratos/Ryu for goodness sake. In this respect, Ceej did setup a nice little match here, its just that those of us who’ve been around these contests long enough know we’re in for yet another match with an obvious winner. And that winner is Chun-Li.

The Queen of Fighting Games is coming fresh off a sound beating of the DoA star Kasumi, potentially tacking on some genre-SFF for good measure. Unfortunately because she was facing someone that was four years removed from the contest, we have no idea what that performance really means for her. And now once again Thunder Thighs is forced to play the role of measuring stick to her opponent. This time she’s dealing with a character that not only missed last year’s contest, but suffered a 9% drop in the X-stats since her last appearance. Needless to say, it wouldn’t be fair to use either of Chunny’s performances as a gauge for how well she’ll do in her big match against Yuna next round.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/20/2006 8:30:41 PM | message detail
Round 2

Aeon Divisional Semifinals- Match 2

Chun-Li (3) vs Lara Croft (2)


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2513
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2514

In round one, Chunners gave a hearty "lol 2k2 x-stats" while Lara blew out what is probably the weakest contest character ever.

This is a match that hasn't really been debated that much, seeing as how Lara has completely stunk it up in years past, but lately I've been thinking that Lara winning is a possible upset.

Since Lara's last appearance in 2k4, she's had what is claimed as the best game in her series, which brings life back into something that the more hardcore gamers have typically shunned.

Another reason is the fact that Bowser seems to have overrated the Dream division last year, at least a little bit.

Basically, this is Lara's match to win or lose. If she can shake off the anti-votes and hate that she's used to getting, she could very well upset Thunder Thighs.

I myself have faith that Chun-Li can win this.

TuRtLe's Prediction: Chun-Li with 52.65%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Chun-Li
TuRtLe's Vote: CHUNNERS!!!!!!!1111111111

TuRtLe
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35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2006 8:30:44 PM | message detail
On the other side, yeah, Lara doesn’t have much of a shot here. Don’t let her beatdown of Alyx Vance think that she suddenly has a chance. She’s not exactly known for blowing out fodder. She let Chop-Chop Master Onion score 30% on her and let Ryo Hazuki score 40%. (Yes I know it’s from 2k2 where a lot of weird things happened, but even this is inexcusable by that contest’s standards) The fact that Alyx couldn’t avoid a tripling & the two ladies combined for the worst vote totals of this contest just goes to show how much suck Alyx is made of. I mean she’s an NPC that comes from the same game as Gordon Freeman for cryin’ out loud! Just how strong could she really be?

But wait; didn’t she have a new multi-platform game out called Tomb Raider Legend you say? If anything Legend may have put Lara back on the map and breathed some life back into her series, but you can forget about her helping her iconic status. (Which is something a lot of casual brackets will be banking on) She’s fallen from that pedestal long ago, and really as far as these contests go, that’s something that’s never helped her much to begin with. Fact is, GameFAQs as a whole has never really cared for Tomb Raider, and for Legend to push her up from horrible fodder in 2k4, where she couldn’t break 20% on Samus, to a solid midcarder with the likes Chun, Yuna, & Rikku two years later is pretty much ludicrous. For that to happen, Legend needed to be a huge as Resident Evil 4 in terms of praise and acclaim, and that game was no RE4. Even in her best year (2k3), she was practically equal to KOS-MOS. And by the way, Chun is projected to get over 57% on the Xenosaga star based on last year’s stats.

With that said, I’m not sure if what happened to her in 2k4 was a large fluke or not, but I’d expect Lara to get a nice boost from Legend, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her get all the way back to a respectable KOS-MOS-ish level of strength. The higher seeding will most certainly help as well, & Chun is likely to a bit overrated as shown by Bowser’s poor showing against Leon, (and well...just about every other character in the Dream Division not having the greatest of showings) but that’s about it. Even if the Lara hate has suddenly disappeared, as some of her supporters had been suggesting after her Round 1 win, it won’t be enough. Street Fighter has always had a respectable presence on this site, and that fanbase likes Chun too much to let her drop this match.

So when all is set and done, Lara just has too much going against her to ‘shock the world’ come tomorrow. Chun-Li will advance and expect to see a lot of casual brackets get busted here, much like how they were destroyed when Ryu beat Kratos.

PREDICTION: Chun-Li with 59.41%



Crew Consensus: Chun-Li with the sweep, but the range of percentage is wide. It all depends on how much Lara has changed since 2004.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/20/2006 8:31:31 PM | message detail
WTF @ crew

You really think Lara is still that weak?

TuRtLe
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35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
creativename | Posted 10/20/2006 8:34:25 PM | message detail
Deleted my post so as not to interrupt Moltar...reposting:

Funny how it looks like Squall is holding Snake hostage or something.

And I don't like that Yoshi/Dante pic...Yoshi's "Howdy ho!" pose is great, but he just totally dominates that pic. While I don't think the pic will matter for it, I don't think you should have such lopsided pics in what should be a close, contested match.

Ryu/Mega Man...WTF?
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HoorayProxies | Posted 10/20/2006 8:35:00 PM | message detail
Congrats to HM in advance!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/20/2006 8:35:25 PM | message detail
You really think Lara is still that weak?


Why wouldn't she be?
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Dancing with myself! Oh-oh! Dancing with myself! Oh-oh!
And I'll sweat! Sweat! Sweat! Sweat! Sweat! Sweat! SWEAT! SWEAT!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2006 8:40:21 PM | message detail
You really think Lara is still that weak?

Yep. So she blew out Alyx, doesn't mean much to me, especially when looking at other female matches.

I've been saying that I think she'll fall in between 2003 and 2004, and Chun already beats 2003 with 55%. I also don't think Chun-Li is overrated, if that helps.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Yuna vs. Joanna - Bracket: Yuna - Vote: Joanna (40/44)
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/20/2006 8:42:58 PM | message detail
And I think Chunners is overrated, and Lara is stronger than her 2K4 numbers. Still... I give it to Chunners with 52.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/20/2006 8:43:53 PM | message detail
Lara doesn't have to be 2004 weak for this to happen to her...if I thought that was her true strength, I'd have gone a lot higher. That being said, unless the picture makes a significant difference here I expect her to get humiliated.

Though with the general apathy most people seem to have toward the female characters, I wouldn't be surprised.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/20/2006 8:44:45 PM | message detail
From HoorayProxies Posted 10/20/2006 11:42:58 PM
And I think Chunners is overrated, and Lara is stronger than her 2K4 numbers. Still... I give it to Chunners with 52.

Good to see somebody agreeing with me !!

TuRtLe
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35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/20/2006 8:45:13 PM | message detail
Please, don't rub it in.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2006 8:45:29 PM | message detail
Well, your face is overrated!

Also, I won't be surprised if Lara actually puts up a fight. Chun-Li is going to need to build up a strong percentage overnight (woo europe), because Lara is looking to maul her once the sun goes up.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Yuna vs. Joanna - Bracket: Yuna - Vote: Joanna (40/44)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/20/2006 8:46:07 PM | message detail
Also, Bold Prediction: Chun-Li dominates with high 50's through the night before Lara starts mauling the percentage during the day.

TuRtLe
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35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/20/2006 8:47:50 PM | message detail
I'd be gone right now, but in the off chance that Lara pulls something, I want to be around when it goes down. Either way I'm only gonna be able to catch the first 15 minutes or so.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/20/2006 8:49:57 PM | message detail
And I didn't see your post there before I typed mine Moltar. Amazing how we both said the same thing along with the word maul.

TuRtLe
~~~
35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/20/2006 8:50:30 PM | message detail
If Lara pulls something, it probably won't be until the morning.

TuRtLe
~~~
35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/20/2006 8:50:52 PM | message detail
I mauled Moltar like a tiger in the sack last night.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/20/2006 8:54:12 PM | message detail
I know Chun-Li's picture isn't that great, but I don't get why people think Lara's looks good. She looks ten times the crack whore that Jill did in her picture.

Snake/Squall is awesome, and we'll get to see if Old Snake has any impact. Honestly, it's not the greatest look in the world, but then again, few pictures Snake has are.

Yoshi/Dante is just...wow. I'm having to stifle a grin every time I look at it. This is Pac-Man/Ocelot lite, only because Dante isn't quite THAT overshadowed and he's still going to win anyway.

I like Gordon's newfound confidence being reflected in his match picture. He's all like, "I'm still getting 40%+ in defeat! Believe!"

Ryu/Mega Man...Well, maybe Ryu can still be one of the few characters to break 40% in every loss, after all. Still, I'm not a big fan of that picture of him.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/20/2006 8:55:09 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: Lara actually does fairly well with the board vote, giving people the notion that she might do something. Then Chun-Li owns her from there on out, pushing over 60% by the end.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/20/2006 8:55:46 PM | message detail
Your bold prediction will be very wrong, sir!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/20/2006 8:56:03 PM | message detail
Bah, Lara can pull the upset, and even challenge Yuna for all I care...I'm so burned out on this female bracket that I have lost the ability to care about even the most shocking upsets. Samus could outright lose and I probably wouldn't even care. It's dead to me.

So, whatever. I'm not going to spend time worrying about a match that should never have existed in the first place.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/20/2006 8:56:52 PM | message detail
Yuna with...84%
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CB5 Points: 41/44, Current Oracle placement: 31/164
Now playing: Okami
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/20/2006 8:57:09 PM | message detail
Hey, I'm actually wanting to see Yuna/Chun-Li because they are two of my favorite females around.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/20/2006 8:57:13 PM | message detail
The only thing that I can get out of the female bracket at this point is Zelda/Aeris and Zelda/Samus. Everything else is so dreadfully boring.

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2006 8:57:25 PM | message detail
Actually, Leon, that sounds pretty good to me!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Chun-Li vs. Lara - Bracket: Chun-Li - Vote: Chun-Li (42/46)
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/20/2006 8:57:27 PM | message detail
Yuna with 77.77%
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/20/2006 8:58:10 PM | message detail
Dante may look overshadowed, but the first thing that came to mind for me was, "Is that DMC2 Dante? Crap." Not that it would make a difference, but I wonder why Ceej is so insistent on using DMC2 crack whore Dante or DMC3 babyface Dante. I miss DMC1 Dante!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/20/2006 8:58:34 PM | message detail
IMO this will probably be the lowest scoring match of round 2.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/20/2006 8:58:43 PM | message detail
I kinda like crack-whore dante, actually.
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CB5 Points: 41/44, Current Oracle placement: 31/164
Now playing: Okami
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2006 9:00:17 PM | message detail
Chun Li 74.29%

26
Lara Croft 25.71%

9
TOTAL VOTES 35

lol this
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Chun-Li vs. Lara - Bracket: Chun-Li - Vote: Chun-Li (42/46)
Gaddswell | Posted 10/20/2006 9:00:30 PM | message detail
Chun Li 78.57% 11
Lara Croft 21.43% 3
TOTAL VOTES 14
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/20/2006 9:00:37 PM | message detail
Chun Li 57.24% 87
Lara Croft 42.76% 65
TOTAL VOTES 152

GO LARA GO!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2006 9:00:41 PM | message detail
70.10% for Yuna, not that bad...
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Chun-Li vs. Lara - Bracket: Chun-Li - Vote: Chun-Li (42/46)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/20/2006 9:00:59 PM | message detail
Lara's looking semi-interesting at this point. Let's see if it'll hold up.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/20/2006 9:01:03 PM | message detail
Chun Li 81.82% 9
Lara Croft 18.18% 2

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Dancing with myself! Oh-oh! Dancing with myself! Oh-oh!
And I'll sweat! Sweat! Sweat! Sweat! Sweat! Sweat! SWEAT! SWEAT!
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/20/2006 9:01:09 PM | message detail
Nah, the fact that this match is on Saturday will save this match from having the lowest vote totals.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Master Moltar | Posted 10/20/2006 9:01:38 PM | message detail
And, bye bye bracket vote, look at Chunners go!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Chun-Li vs. Lara - Bracket: Chun-Li - Vote: Chun-Li (42/46)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/20/2006 9:01:56 PM | message detail
And just as I say that, Chun-Li takes off. Oh, well.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/20/2006 9:02:19 PM | message detail
*leaves*

DON'T SAY IT.

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I love bananas.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/20/2006 9:02:27 PM | message detail
Looks like Chun's got this one without too much of a hastle.
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CB5 Points: 41/44, Current Oracle placement: 31/164
Now playing: Okami
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/20/2006 9:02:48 PM | message detail
And, bye bye bracket vote, look at Chunners go!

The bracket vote would favor Chun-Li over Lara. <<


...But this matters not when the day vote is still going to be in full force! This being under 60% is confirmed!

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The Master Sword is the most sought-after blade in Hyrule. He who wields it carries with him the hope of the kingdom.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/20/2006 9:02:49 PM | message detail
lol EC
lol BT
lol first five minutes
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.