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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 397

SquallidSnake | Posted 10/19/2006 5:13:22 PM | message detail
So the entire 2005 bracket is doubly overrated!!
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/19/2006 5:14:00 PM | message detail
So the entire 2005 bracket is doubly overrated!!

Except for Samus, she's still underrated. >_>

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I'm so hardcore.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2006 5:19:58 PM | message detail
Samus > Seph, yo!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
KOS-MOS vs. Aeris - Bracket: Aeris - Vote: KOS-MOS (38/42)
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/19/2006 5:20:35 PM | message detail
I'd totally take that upset.

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I'm so hardcore.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2006 5:21:59 PM | message detail
I totally already took that upset in 2005.

Too bad Mario had to pull an insane rSFF beating out of his ass to stop that from happening!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
KOS-MOS vs. Aeris - Bracket: Aeris - Vote: KOS-MOS (38/42)
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/19/2006 5:23:07 PM | message detail
I took it too!

darn you mario

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I'm so hardcore.
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/19/2006 5:23:44 PM | message detail
Sonic totally would've beaten Mario had he gotten there and could've beaten Sephiroth, too!

Stupid Mega Man.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/19/2006 5:25:06 PM | message detail
Oh man... imagine last year if Sonic and Samus switch places. Samus > Seph > Sonic > Mario. It would have happened too, if it weren't for those damn meddling kids!

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I'm so hardcore.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/19/2006 5:25:09 PM | message detail
I remember everyone in this topic saying Ganondorf's performance against Ansem was bad the day of the match.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/19/2006 5:26:26 PM | message detail
...and? I don't care what peoples expectations were, there was no data on him at all. That does NOT mean he can't blow out fodder, he's never been given the chance.

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I'm so hardcore.
SquallidSnake | Posted 10/19/2006 5:27:06 PM | message detail
Well, people STILL say it was due to Bacondorf.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
October 22 - Internal war rages between the Squallid and the Snake
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/19/2006 5:30:56 PM | message detail
Except MM would rSFF Samus and Mario would beat Sonic making the bracket look almost the same!!
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 6:33:26 PM | message detail
http://zs.ffshrine.org/album/legend-of-zelda/sprites/Princess_Zelda.gif

EAT IT, ZELDA SUPPORTERS


That's one sexy 8-bit woman!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
charmander6000 | Posted 10/19/2006 6:48:22 PM | message detail
Match XXXIX: (1) Yuna vs. (4) Joanna Dark

Previous Matches

Yuna
Defeated Roll, 79.30% - 20.70%

Joanna Dark
Defeated Cortana, 60.23% - 39.77%

Analysis:

Last round Roll was much weaker than expected letting Yuna almost break 80% on her; I guess people from the original Mega Man series aren’t that strong with the exception of Mega Man himself. Joanna was easily able to beat Cortana in the biggest fodder/fodder match and is the weakest character to have made to the second round this year.

Yuna may be the weakest one seed in the contest, but she shouldn’t have too much trouble at beating Joanna. The x-stats have Yuna pushing upwards to almost 70%, but I think Joanna would be able to do better than what the stats say.

First off Joanna has had a new game release since her last appearance, Perfect Dark Zero. It was a launch title for the Xbox 360 and even though it wasn’t as great as the first one, it was the game to get on the 360 for the first few months until it got more games. How much would Joanna gain from this? Well it was her first game in many years so it did expose new people to Joanna. She’s probably still fodder, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she got close to the line.

Another thing worth discussing was if Joanna was SFF by Mario last year. Her only game at the time was on the Nintendo 64, a system where only a select few games survived the test of time. I think she may have gotten SFF, but not too much. Many Perfect Dark fans are loyal to Perfect Dark and wouldn’t betray it so easily.

Because of Perfect Dark Zero and the possibility of Mario SFF I think Joanna would be able to avoid the doubling. If Rare decides to make more good Perfect Dark games I could see Joanna boosting over the fodder line, but until then this will probably be Joanna’s last contest match.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Yuna over Joanna Dark

charmander6000’s Prediction: Yuna wins, 65.82% - 34.18%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2006 6:58:19 PM | message detail
I remember everyone in this topic saying Ganondorf's performance against Ansem was bad the day of the match.

And yet the ONLY reason for that was Ansem/CATS. Make Ganondorf/Ansem a first round match, no one bats an eye.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2006 8:16:00 PM | message detail
Aeon Division: Round 2 - Match 39 – (1)Yuna vs. (4)Joanna Dark

Moltar’s Analysis

Yuna
Round 1 – 79.30% vs. Roll (20.70%)

Yuna does very well against Roll…almost too well…

Joanna
Round 1 – 60.23% vs. Cortana (39.77%)

Joanna isn’t afraid of no Halo character!

Yeesh, another boring Round 2 match in the female half. Oh well, Round 3 should turn up to be a bit more interesting.

For now though, Joanna’s Contest time looks to end here. Yuna is already projected to beat her easily, but that performance on Roll was pretty impressive. Yuna may actually be trying to make herself look like a threat to take down Chun-Li with ease.

What am I guessing though? Yuna will put up an average performance.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Yuna will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Yuna: 68% - Joanna: 32%



Ulti’s Analysis That’s Not Written by Moltar Because He Hasn’t Gotten it Yet and Needs Something Here

joanna is the hott, perfect dark rulez bang bang zip zop zoobity bop


Prediction: Magus with 87.55%


HM’s Analysis

Yuna

Previous Matches:

Yuna – 79.3% -- 97,716

Roll – 20.7% -- 25,501

Joanna Dark

Previous Matches:

Joanna Dark – 60.23% -- 60,488

Cortana – 39.77% -- 39,944

After the awesome overperformance from Zelda and the underperformance from Aeris, we’re back to the boring old female matches that we have become accustomed to. Last round, Yuna came out with a very nice performance by nearly quadrupling Roll and Joanna Dark put Cortana into her place as bottom of the barrel fodder.

I’m not sure what to make of this match simply because it could range from 60% - 70%, I think. Yuna was likely underrated last year, Joanna could have been underrated and then boosted from PDZ or she could have not been underrated and not boosted and all sorts of various possibilities. There’s not much to really go over with this match because of how easy it is. The most we may get from this division is to see how Chun-Li will compare against Yuna heading into the division finals (YUNA > CHUN-LI).

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Yuna

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Yuna – 66.5% ; Joanna Dark – 33.5%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Yuna



Yoblazer’s Analysis


This is, without a shadow of a doubt, the worst match of Round 2. What we will essentially have to endure is a character who does not deserve to win two matches beating up on a character who did not deserve one match. Yuna will beat up on Joanna and, based on the extent of said beating-up, people will make predictions and set expectations regarding her upcoming match with Chun-Li or Lara Croft. And... that's really all I'm able to muster today. Sorry, but I don't really know or care about either of these ladies, and the match result is obvious.

My prediction: Yuna def. Joanna Dark (67-33)



Lopen’s Analysis

Don't let Roll fool you. Yuna's not suddenly some female bracket taking beast. No no… Roll's just fodder of the worst sort. Joanna Dark will take her off her little high horse that she summoned. (Oh ho I bet it was Ixion!) Joanna will do her best to "disturb the summoner"… "touch the summoner"… "hurt the summoner"? What's the line? I don't know!

Oh wait… it's… "Stay away from the summoner!" That's right! So Joanna Dark will do her best to… "approach the summoner"? Alright. Yeah. She'll try to approach her… in votes… but she'll fail… miserably.

Lopen's prediction: Yuna with 64.12%
Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2006 8:16:17 PM | message detail
KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

Yuna

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 34th Place [23.66%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 31st Place [23.92%]

Yuna is looking good in her prospects to take this very boring division down after an absolute clobbering of Roll. Getting your ass beat down like that against Yuna? Roll's either one of the most worthless things we've ever seen, or -- actually, yeah, Roll = Worthless basically summarizes last round's match.

Joanna Dark

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 59th Place [15.12%]

Joanna had a good expected thrashing of Cortana herself, though nothing that would give her inklings at this upset. Yuna just has too much going in her favor, Joanna's just trying to make herself respectable here.

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Yuna: Kingdom Hearts II (PS2)
Joanna Dark: Perfect Dark Zero (XB360)

Upcoming Releases

Yuna: N/A
Joanna Dark: N/A

This match sums up everything I hate about the female bracket.

Karma Hunter's Vote: Joanna Dark. May be the last time we see her in a contest at this rate...

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Yuna with 67.5%.

Yuna has reason to be underrated and perhaps stronger this year, but Joanna has reason to be SFFed in her last appearance...with the severity of Nintendo SFF and PDZ, I'll go lower than what the stats say.

Upset Potential: 0%

lol steve illumina



Guest’s Analysis - Minipoooot

Let’s look at the previous matches in this contest with Yuna and Joanna.

Yuna: 79.3% - Roll: 20.7%
Joanna: 60.23%- Cortana: 39.77%

Though Roll had never been in a previous contest, it was expected that she would end up as fodder for Yuna. Cortana, also never having been in a contest, was expected to perform somewhat decently against Joanna, but ended up getting rolled over by Ms. Dark. Obviously, Yuna is the heavy favorite coming into this match. According to lol x-stats, 2005 Yuna will win against 2005 Joanna with 68.39%. However, with the release of Perfect Dark Zero after last year’s contest, I believe that Joanna’s percentage should rise a little.

My prediction:
Yuna- 64.5%
Joanna 35.5%
Who Cares? | Posted 10/19/2006 8:27:38 PM | message detail
Looking at the rest of the bracket, this next match looks like the last true stinker of the contest IMO. The next 24 hours can't go by quick enough!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21st) One down, two to go!
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
charmander6000 | Posted 10/19/2006 8:39:17 PM | message detail
What about the Destiny Division? IMO both of those matches aren't interesting.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Janus5000 | Posted 10/19/2006 8:39:36 PM | message detail
Ulti better get this point.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2006 8:43:56 PM | message detail
Nah, I take Joanna to upset Magus. 53% for the lady.
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http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Weird Al Yankovic (#9)
transience | Posted 10/19/2006 8:56:29 PM | message detail
Aeris with uhhh 76% of the brackets
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xyzzy
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/19/2006 8:56:55 PM | message detail
Aeris with 76.01% of the brackets.
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CB5 Points: 39/42, Current Oracle placement: 37/163
Now playing: Okami
HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2006 8:56:59 PM | message detail
77.12% for Aeris.
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http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Weird Al Yankovic (#9)
Draco1214 | Posted 10/19/2006 8:57:00 PM | message detail
Aeris with 78% of the brackets
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Character Battle V Score - 39/44 points
Current Prediction - Yuna vs. Joanna Dark
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/19/2006 8:57:18 PM | message detail
Yuna:76
Joanna:24

thats what Id say <_<
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"I have no fear of losing my life - if I have to save a koala or a crocodile or a kangaroo or a snake, mate, I will save it. " -Steve Irwin
Gaddswell | Posted 10/19/2006 9:00:38 PM | message detail
Yuna 63.89% 23
Joanna Dark 36.11% 13
TOTAL VOTES 36
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2006 9:00:50 PM | message detail
71.68% for Aeris...

and 19-9 Yuna when I voted.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Yuna vs. Joanna - Bracket: Yuna - Vote: Joanna (40/44)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 9:00:54 PM | message detail
71.68% for Aeris.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
transience | Posted 10/19/2006 9:01:02 PM | message detail
winner!
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 10/19/2006 9:02:08 PM | message detail
and it looks like I shouldn't have lowered my prediction for Yuna... still early though. I'm beginning to believe that Yuna > Tidus, I just can't see Joanna Dark being below KOAC.
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 10/19/2006 9:02:18 PM | message detail
Woot back into the Top 50 and just in time too, Yoshi/Dante is in only a few days.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Big Bob | Posted 10/19/2006 9:04:00 PM | message detail
Ulti's analysis > All
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2006 9:04:03 PM | message detail
Zelda (2005c) VS Joanna Dark (2005c)

Zelda has a strength of 33.71.
Joanna Dark has a strength of 16.50.

Zelda wins with 75.53% of the vote!
A win of 54,190 with 106,145 total votes cast.

So close, Yuna, but no cigar. You are so screwed.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Yuna vs. Joanna - Bracket: Yuna - Vote: Joanna (40/44)
therealmnm | Posted 10/19/2006 9:04:11 PM | message detail
Wow, Yuna is taking it to Joanna. Just playing with numbers, Yuna's almost getting what 2k3 Aeris is expected to on Joanna Dark. And if Joanna got SFF'd any by Mario... Yuna > Aeris???? I'd buy it!
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
transience | Posted 10/19/2006 9:04:44 PM | message detail
I would laugh so hard if Zelda beat Aeris and lost to Yuna.
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xyzzy
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 9:05:32 PM | message detail
THIS IS A CLEAR OVERPERFORMANCE GUYS JOANNA IS JUST FODDER LOLZ


I would laugh so hard if Zelda beat Aeris and lost to Yuna.

Don't kid around about that. =(

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/19/2006 9:06:04 PM | message detail
Wow. Why does everyone vote for Yuna but not Rikku?! ;_;
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caps
charmander6000 | Posted 10/19/2006 9:06:57 PM | message detail
Almost 75%, this will probably drop but this is impressive.

KH2F >_>
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 10/19/2006 9:07:21 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
41-----35-------91.4285714
40-----305------98.0327869
39-----838------94.5107399
38-----1737-----92.5158319
37-----2610-----90.6896552
36-----3470-----88.8760807
35-----4115-----85.6622114
34-----4120-----83.3980583
33-----3923-----79.9388223
32-----3685-----74.8710991
31-----3327-----70.5139766
30-----2890-----65.5017301
29-----2481-----60.6610238
28-----2058-----55.1020408
27-----1734-----48.9619377
26-----1433-----44.9406839
25-----1062-----38.0414313
24-----805------37.7639752
23-----603------29.6849088
22-----373------28.6863271
21-----273------25.2747253
20-----188------26.0638298
19-----110------21.8181818
18-----68-------17.6470588
17-----47-------8.5106383
16-----34-------11.7647059
15-----17-------11.7647059
14-----8--------0.0000000
13-----6--------0.0000000
12-----5--------0.0000000
11-----9--------0.0000000
10-----5--------0.0000000
9------10-------0.0000000
8------18-------5.5555556

Everybody with a score of 7 or less got the match wrong.

The -1s took a hit on this match. They still broke 90, but did a good deal worse than the -2s and a bit worse than the -3s and -4s. Someone with a score of 8 got the match right somehow.

The three -1s who got the match wrong were the 3 people to fall off the Top 50. Link6187, Angelgear8 and Achilles17 did not have Aeris taking out KOS-MOS.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 9:07:48 PM | message detail
I'm a bigger fan of GUF (Ganon Underrated Factor).

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
transience | Posted 10/19/2006 9:08:43 PM | message detail
heh, based on a constant Joanna, where does this put Vincent?

(this will drop, no worries about that.)
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xyzzy
Kaxon | Posted 10/19/2006 9:09:12 PM | message detail
So everyone from KH2 is looking great, except for Aeris...

*sigh*

My instincts were telling this would be a blowout (the same ones that told me Aeris would do well yesterday), while logic told me Yuna'd get in the mid 60's. Once again I listened to the wrong thing.
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....TCELES B HSUP
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/19/2006 9:09:32 PM | message detail
Well I almost called it right <_<

Cmon Yuna, Put 76 to prove my prediction right! <_<
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"I have no fear of losing my life - if I have to save a koala or a crocodile or a kangaroo or a snake, mate, I will save it. " -Steve Irwin
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/19/2006 9:09:50 PM | message detail
Wow, I'm very impressed with Yuna right now. She only has like 6% less than Mario got and Joanna has had PDZ since then too...

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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2006 9:10:16 PM | message detail
It went up! Over a tripling now...
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Yuna vs. Joanna - Bracket: Yuna - Vote: Joanna (40/44)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 9:10:54 PM | message detail
...Vincent would win the main bracket.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2006 9:11:25 PM | message detail
Surely to God it won't finish like this.....
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http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Weird Al Yankovic (#9)
transience | Posted 10/19/2006 9:11:37 PM | message detail
YUNA > ZELDA CONFIRMED.
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xyzzy
Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2006 9:12:08 PM | message detail
Oh man, and looking as last round, this was Yuna's worst time and Joanna's best time (percentage wise for both)

Ha ha oh wow
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Yuna vs. Joanna - Bracket: Yuna - Vote: Joanna (40/44)