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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 397

Draco1214 | Posted 10/19/2006 3:43:12 PM | message detail
This match tells me more about Zelda/Aeris because Aeris is bombing pretty hard now (she's barely outperforming Ryu). Yesterday's match told me nothing.

Unless you want to believe Zelda will beat Samus.
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Character Battle V Score - 37/42 points
Current Prediction - KOS-MOS vs. Aeris Gainsborough
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 3:43:51 PM | message detail
And before anyone jumps on me about the Aeris 2k2 = Aeris 2k6 comment, I do not think that is what we're seeing right now. I never work in such extremes when figuring this stuff out. If I did, I would be calling for Zelda to beat Aeris with about 55 - 56% of the vote. I just think all signs are clearly in place that point to Zelda winning without much of a problem. At the very least, there is nothing that says this match should be 50/50 heading in with both having an equal chance at winning, because Zelda is a clear favorite.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
H__RR____H | Posted 10/19/2006 3:46:01 PM | message detail
To be fair, Aeris did have FF:AC and KH2 on her side, not to mention FF12 releasing on Zelda/Aeris, so thinkin' Aeris > Zelda before the contest was plenty reasonable...but, like her roles in each of those, it couldn't mean very much if anything at all -- the first two don't look like they did her many favors against Marle and KOS-MOS, and I've grown skeptical on how much FF12 will really help Aeris out.

It's no lock, but I've just been feeling better and better about Zelda taking it. Of course, I said this just afew days ago about Peach, too.....
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 3:46:32 PM | message detail
Indeed, Zelda is the clear favorite, but she's not a lock. Still, I'd imagine that this is a stronger KOS-MOS than the one Ryu beat, even though this doesn't look too optimistic for Aeris one way or the other.

Even so, Ryu 2004 is only .81% behind Aeris 2003.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 3:51:07 PM | message detail
To be fair, Aeris did have FF:AC and KH2 on her side, not to mention FF12 releasing on Zelda/Aeris, so thinkin' Aeris > Zelda before the contest was plenty reasonable...but, like her roles in each of those, it couldn't mean very much if anything at all -- the first two don't look like they did her many favors against Marle and KOS-MOS, and I've grown skeptical on how much FF12 will really help Aeris out.

I mentioned to Draco a while ago that I would imagine that KH2/AC could have potentially just lessened the amount that Aeris might have fallen. Or, in a better case, kept her from falling. I sincerely doubt either one of those did anything to bring her up though.

I can understand why one might think they would, but when you consider she gained 2% from that Square shift, another small cameo role where she does next to nothing notable and that won't produce a shift doesn't speak well for her. This, along with missing every contest since 2003, definitely made me think she was at her 2003 strength at absolute best.

And FFXII? Yeah. I've always had my doubts on that. It just seemed silly that people would think that would be a deciding factor.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/19/2006 4:02:35 PM | message detail
Why are people using x-stats for Yuna/Joanna? Yuna isn't very strong, but when you put her against someone like Joanna Dark, she isn't going to barely put up 60%, just because the stats say so. I mean, Yuna can fold against stronger characters just like Joanna does, but Yuna is just miles and miles out of Joanna's league.

Just what I think, anyway. 70% doesn't seem impossible.
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caps
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 4:03:43 PM | message detail
Yuna is going to beat down Joanna hard.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
H__RR____H | Posted 10/19/2006 4:14:05 PM | message detail
Joanna will be doing good to break 35%...but there's no doubt Joanna'll do noticably better than her stats say last year. She has a 360-launch game (her first game in, what, seven years?), her picture is now a picture from a game that's released as opposed to using her PD0 model last year before the game was out, and she probably suffered some minor SFF against Mario last year.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/19/2006 4:14:34 PM | message detail
Also, never in my day would I expect KOS-MOS getting a 47% update on Aeris. Extremely good performance by KOS-MOS. Makes me wonder how Sora was SFF'd enough to perform 5% worse than KOS-MOS. And Kairi still did well on Rikku.
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caps
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/19/2006 4:17:04 PM | message detail
Well, Yuna could overperform on Joanna for the same reason Vincent's going to beat Ganon: underrated Samus/Ganon in 2k6. Of course, PDZ should easily wipe that boost out, which would make Yuna look bad, but she'll still win her division no problem.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
H__RR____H | Posted 10/19/2006 4:19:56 PM | message detail
Yeah, where Yuna is will make it hard to tell where Joanna should go for awhile, but by the end of the x-stats when it's all said and done, I think Joanna's going to come off looking better than last year by afew percent (depending on how much the factors I mentioned are worth, I figure anywhere from 2% to 5%).
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/19/2006 4:20:15 PM | message detail
Extremely good performance by KOS-MOS. Makes me wonder how Sora was SFF'd enough to perform 5% worse than KOS-MOS. And Kairi still did well on Rikku.

Pft, KOS-MOS would blow Sora out, and you know it! Samus just underperformed on Sora to make up for overperforming so much on Lara and Sam.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
H__RR____H | Posted 10/19/2006 4:21:00 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS would totally rSFF Sora.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2006 4:26:24 PM | message detail
Yeah, we all know Sora's 2003 number is his only legit one!

And I have a feeling Yuna will destroy Joanna (mid-high 60's), and she'll only be higher in the stats this year due to Yuna performing well against Zelda (oops spoils).
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
KOS-MOS vs. Aeris - Bracket: Aeris - Vote: KOS-MOS (38/42)
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 4:27:18 PM | message detail
Is Leon really the only person left in this topic with any sense? How anyone could possibly look at Zelda/Terra and not call that an overperformances makes my brain explode. There's no way Terra drops off that friggin' much this year, and there's no way Zelda is suddenly on the level of Mario, considering she has no reason to boost. Is it impressive? Yeah, but it doesn't tell me anything other than LoZ can blow out fodder. WHAT A SHOCKER.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2006 4:29:27 PM | message detail
I'm getting a big Snake/Bowser vibe from this Zelda/Aeris discussion...Snake/Zelda goes out and flatout kills Sora/Terra to the point where they're projected above Mario, Bowser/Aeris struggle with Kirby/KOS-MOS to the point where they're expected to get flat-out dominated...

...of course, Bowser didn't actually pull off the upset in the end, but he came damn close, eh. =(
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2006 4:30:37 PM | message detail
And, uh, Robotnik is underrated, people. The fourpack's weak, but not THAT weak.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 4:31:54 PM | message detail
The only difference is that the better character's going to lose that match, KH!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 4:31:55 PM | message detail
He couldn't even double A ****ING HAND!

He's obviously weaksauce. >_>

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Haste_2 | Posted 10/19/2006 4:32:36 PM | message detail
Yeah...Amy Rose might end up higher in the x-stats than Robotnik.

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 4:34:42 PM | message detail
Oh, and Yuna's totally hitting 70% tomorrow, I don't care if Joanna had a new release. Samus - Ganon - Yuna underratedness folks! And if she does hit 70%, PD0 just boosted her more than I thought. Book it!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/19/2006 4:35:21 PM | message detail
I'm gonna mark out when Joanna breaks 35% >_>
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 4:37:20 PM | message detail
Ganondorf's overratedness cancels out Robotnik's underratedness!

Yeah...Amy Rose might end up higher in the x-stats than Robotnik.

She already is! Based on Aeris 2003, that is. Robotnik comes out at 16.80% on BL, while Amy is currently at 17.25% on BL. For the record, KOS-MOS is looking to finish at 25%+ here.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 4:38:17 PM | message detail
Board 8 is also looking to jump into the analysis crew standings. Oh yes!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/19/2006 4:39:16 PM | message detail
/flex
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CB5 Points: 39/42, Current Oracle placement: 37/163
Now playing: Okami
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2006 4:40:13 PM | message detail
Oh, and Yuna's totally hitting 70% tomorrow, I don't care if Joanna had a new release. Samus - Ganon - Yuna underratedness folks! And if she does hit 70%, PD0 just boosted her more than I thought. Book it!

If Joanna hits 70% we just may have to hope Vincent doesn't get his ass doubled. <_<
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2006 4:40:25 PM | message detail
Hey, it's all about Yo's Consistency Rankings now!

I mean, when B8 and Lopen are winning my system, something's wrong. >.>
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
KOS-MOS vs. Aeris - Bracket: Aeris - Vote: KOS-MOS (38/42)
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 4:41:05 PM | message detail
Don't mess me with me Karma Hunter !!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 4:41:33 PM | message detail

I mean, when B8 and Lopen are winning my system, something's wrong. >.>


You should have realized when Inviso's biased ass was winning.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
transience | Posted 10/19/2006 4:49:20 PM | message detail
I'm getting a big Snake/Bowser vibe from this Zelda/Aeris discussion...

and you know why, right? SPRITE ROUND
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xyzzy
Haste_2 | Posted 10/19/2006 4:50:23 PM | message detail
Heh, what if Luigi was UNDER-rated last year? First Luigi does too well, and now KOS-MOS. It would be crazy if that was the case.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2006 4:52:21 PM | message detail
and you know why, right? SPRITE ROUND

w00t
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/19/2006 4:54:25 PM | message detail
http://zs.ffshrine.org/album/legend-of-zelda/sprites/Princess_Zelda.gif

EAT IT, ZELDA SUPPORTERS
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xyzzy
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/19/2006 4:55:47 PM | message detail
I'd totally hit that.

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I'm so hardcore.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 4:59:29 PM | message detail
My theory for why everyone in 2005 looked stronger than in 2004:

Mario overperformed on Sephiroth.

...Okay, maybe I don't necessarily believe that, but it was never thrown around.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/19/2006 5:01:07 PM | message detail
People need to stop acting like every Zelda thing ever has blown out fodder. The only fodder Ganondorf impressed against was Dr. Robotnik who just sucked more than we thought.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/19/2006 5:02:09 PM | message detail
Zelda would get an LttP/MC sprite for sure. Aeris would get her CoM sprite. Zelda wins!
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CB5 Points: 39/42, Current Oracle placement: 37/163
Now playing: Okami
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2006 5:03:34 PM | message detail
Believe it or not, you can play Zelda without knowing the name, "Ganondorf." Not that it's any coincidence that the best Zelda games are the ones where he makes no appearance at all !!

Oh and uh Robotnik sucking is all fine and dandy, but he's not losing to...uh...Laharl.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/19/2006 5:03:51 PM | message detail
http://fenrir.finalfantasyq.com/miscsprites/lttp/lttpzelda.gif
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xyzzy
Incompetence | Posted 10/19/2006 5:05:40 PM | message detail
"http://zs.ffshrine.org/album/legend-of-zelda/sprites/Princess_Zelda.gif

EAT IT, ZELDA SUPPORTERS
"

That's pretty damn hot, but it has nothing on this:

http://i83.photobucket.com/albums/j320/Nisuka/1160179659558.png
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/19/2006 5:07:04 PM | message detail
Ganon's list of characters faced: Tidus, Magus, Alucard, Link, Yuna, Auron, Samus.

I didn't include the Spring Contest, because no one ever wants to take what happened then seriously. So... who has Ganon faced that was fodder to overperform on? Oh, nobody? Even if you want to use Sp2K5, he faced off against Giygas (unknown), Ansem (unknown), Dr. Robotnik, (unknown), Diablo (not fodder), and Seph himself. So, please, tell me how you can make that statement.


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I'm so hardcore.
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/19/2006 5:07:14 PM | message detail
Tingle pr0n for the loss
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/19/2006 5:07:16 PM | message detail
...and with THAT horrible mental scarring, I'm off!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
therealmnm | Posted 10/19/2006 5:07:41 PM | message detail
The only fodder Ganondorf impressed against was Dr. Robotnik who just sucked more than we thought.

What other fodder has he had the chance to blow out? Giygas? Other than that, he had Tidus, Alucard, Yuna, Auron, and Vincent. Not exactly huge opportunities to flex his blowout muscles...
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
therealmnm | Posted 10/19/2006 5:08:13 PM | message detail
Beaten.

*goes back into stats topic obscurity*
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/19/2006 5:08:19 PM | message detail
lol realmnm more like reallate m i rite?

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I'm so hardcore.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/19/2006 5:08:20 PM | message detail
My theory for why everyone in 2005 looked stronger than in 2004: Mario overperformed on Sephiroth.

It would make more sense for Sephiroth to over-perform on Link, though, don't you think (though I -really- think all those matches were accurate)? At least it would fit with the WDF.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 5:08:26 PM | message detail
I thought the match against Ansem was pretty impressive. After all, he had to pull some massive rSFF to beat the guy who beat CATS.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 5:09:19 PM | message detail
It would make more sense for Sephiroth to over-perform on Link, though, don't you think

No, because Mario has all of the momentum in the world compared to Sephiroth, who's not been in a poll for a few months.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
therealmnm | Posted 10/19/2006 5:12:17 PM | message detail
No, because Mario has all of the momentum in the world compared to Sephiroth, who's not been in a poll for a few months.

Well, Sephiroth could have gotten "last ditch effort to take down Link" votes he normally wouldn't get... <_<;
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX