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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 397

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2006 1:45:41 PM | message detail

Or that Terra/Kerrigan are as strong as they were last year?
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LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 1:46:15 PM | message detail

Sorry, but Zelda isn't noticeably above Dante this year or last year. Heck, I'm not convinced she's above him period. Sorry, but she ain't outdoing Vincent's 54% on him.

If Vincent beats Sonic, I'll reconsider this. Until then, I ain't buying it, especially when we look to have an even stronger Dante this year.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
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MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 1:47:27 PM | message detail

Sorry, but Zelda isn't noticeably above Dante this year or last year. Heck, I'm not convinced she's above him period. Sorry, but she ain't outdoing Vincent's 54% on him.

Zelda 2k6 and Vincent 2k6 should be quite different from their previous year incarnations. There's no way I take Dante over Zelda this year or last year. Nothing crazy about Zelda being a step above Dante at all.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 1:49:03 PM | message detail

Or that Terra/Kerrigan are as strong as they were last year?

The ratios speak of something of that nature to a certain extent, but I'm still allowing for the idea that they dropped. However, there is no way they dropped THAT much. 2005 Terra is worth 62.87% on 2006 Terra? No thanks, BRO.

Really, I have no idea how you can't call this an overperformance.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
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LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 1:50:10 PM | message detail

Zelda 2k6 and Vincent 2k6 should be quite different from their previous year incarnations.

And guess what? Dante 2006 is, too!

There's no way I take Dante over Zelda this year or last year. Nothing crazy about Zelda being a step above Dante at all.

Nothing crazy about Zelda being above Dante, sure. But not to the point where she wins hands down.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 1:54:45 PM | message detail

And guess what? Dante 2006 is, too!

Giving Dante the exact amount he got on Hayabusa as opposed to his 2005 projection, that new boost of his barely puts him above Zelda 2k5. I would definitely venture to guess that Zelda has increased a bit more than half a percent.

Nothing crazy about Zelda being above Dante, sure. But not to the point where she wins hands down.

I would imagine that Zelda would win with something like 52% - 53%, which is close but puts her safely above him.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"

LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 1:56:16 PM | message detail

I'd give her 52% on Dante at best, and he could still win. As I said, I'm not drawing anything from two inconclusive Zelda matches.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake

HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2006 1:57:14 PM | message detail

Though I have Dante beating Yoshi, I still don't take Yoshi to get that close to Zelda.
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Garsha_III | Posted 10/19/2006 2:02:07 PM | message detail

These Zelda performances make me wonder how Ganondorf lost.
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the jp | Posted 10/19/2006 2:15:40 PM | message detail

Because Zelda has been put up against absolute fodder.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/19/2006 2:19:19 PM | message detail

No, because Ganon was put up against one of only 5-7 characters who could beat him in the first round (Vincent, Sonic, Snake, Crono, Megaman, and maybe Squall/Bowser depending on how you place them).
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AC2K6 Score: 40/42 Today: Aeris

Xuxon | Posted 10/19/2006 2:21:15 PM | message detail

IMO, Zelda, Squall and Tifa would beat Ganon, but not Bowser.
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Samurai7 | Posted 10/19/2006 2:22:10 PM | message detail

Gannon is still noticable stronger tan Gannon, and if Gannon faced this fodder and did better as expected everyone would be calling for him to take down the entire N9. This is just Zelda destroying fodder. Zelda characters/games/series always blow out fodder by bigger means than they should. I'm not any more worried now about my Aeris pick than I was before. Especially with how Gannon fell as soon as he met real compeition.
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Xuxon | Posted 10/19/2006 2:22:18 PM | message detail

Oh, and Auron too.
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Samurai7 | Posted 10/19/2006 2:24:11 PM | message detail

err Gannon stronger than Zelda... <.<
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 2:25:41 PM | message detail

Ganon certainly doesn't look noticeably stronger than Zelda at all. The two probably aren't too far off from each other. He just fell to Vincent because Mr. Valentine had every reason to be stronger this year and Ganon didn't have too much reason to grow (outside of being underrated last year).

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"

Samurai7 | Posted 10/19/2006 2:27:24 PM | message detail

I'd predict Gannon to indirectly beat Zelda by about the same margin Vincent beat Gannon and I see no real reason to assume otherwise.

With exclusion of FFVI (Due to an ensemble cast) it always goes Hero>Villian>Side Kick>DID
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade

MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/19/2006 2:27:26 PM | message detail

The only fodder Ganondorf blew out worse than expected was Robotnik who most likely just sucked more than we thought. You can talk about 'overperformances' all you want but Zelda's done it twice(Unless Carmen Sandiego is Jade like fodder) and in ways few characters have ever reached.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2006 2:31:09 PM | message detail

What about FFX then? Side-kick > hero > villain?
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Garsha_III | Posted 10/19/2006 2:32:13 PM | message detail

I assume that Vincent has a good chance against Sonic, ya?

Vincent upsetting Sonic would be so awesome. To see an FFVII character defeat Sonic would upset Board 8 so bad.
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/19/2006 2:33:37 PM | message detail

Auron is no side kick...

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Xuxon | Posted 10/19/2006 2:34:40 PM | message detail

I wouldn't say it's a good chance. In fact, it's pretty bad. But I suppose it exists...
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2006 2:36:35 PM | message detail

Would you give him the lead-status over Tidus or Yuna?
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Samurai7 | Posted 10/19/2006 2:36:56 PM | message detail

What about FFX then? Side-kick > hero > villain?

Without a KH/KH II boost (which Auron would clearly benefit more from than Tidus) I maintain that they'd be near equal. Beyond that I will grant that the popularity of FFX is skewed from the norm, however it doesn't have typical character archtypes in which the Legend of Zelda series does to a T. That said, I said I wasn't any more worried than before, not that I'm not worried at all. I've considered the Aeris/Zelda match a 50/50 from the start. I'm just saying this performance doesn't change much in my mind.
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade

XIII_rocks | Posted 10/19/2006 2:37:30 PM | message detail

Vincent upsetting Sonic would be so awesome. To see an FFVII character defeat Sonic would upset Board 8 so bad.

Actually, it'd be about equal. FFVII is B8's number 1 game. We'd get massive whining, but we'd get an equal amount celebrating that diabolically bad day of the contest.
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AC2K6 Score: 40/42 Today: Aeris

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 2:38:32 PM | message detail

There is nothing that has pointed toward Zelda and Ganon being that far apart. Does Ganon get the nod indirectly? Sure. But they are not far apart and thinking that Zelda's performances have meant nothing is just silly. She is a clear and absolute favorite heading into the match and seeing her lose would be a shock after her performances and Aeris's completely lackluster ones.

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Kaxon | Posted 10/19/2006 2:38:40 PM | message detail

These Zelda performances make me wonder how Ganondorf lost.

Zelda is as strong or stronger than Ganon.
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/19/2006 2:41:42 PM | message detail

You honestly think Tidus would be near even pre-Auron...I must hear your outrageous reasoning on that!
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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Mumei | Posted 10/19/2006 2:42:00 PM | message detail

... Wow.

54.68%, 55.80% updates.

KOS-MOS is doing very well...

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived"- Sensei, "Kokoro"

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/19/2006 2:43:25 PM | message detail

Round 1

Aeon Divisional Semifinals- Match 1

Yuna (1) vs Joanna Dark (4)

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2511
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2512

Yuna impresses in the first round by blowing out the fodderific Roll while Joanna wins a yawner against Cortana of Halo "fame".

Boring match, since Joanna could have been SFF'd by Mario last year, although this will give Yuna a chance to impress while the winner of Chun-Li/Yuna will likely look like crap.

Yuna 68.39% 70,261
Joanna Dark 31.61% 32,474
TOTAL VOTES 102,735

Factor in a little SFF adjustment for Joanna/Mario, and a slight boost from Joanna's new game...

TuRtLe's Prediction: Yuna with 64.34%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Yuna
TuRtLe's Vote: Joanna

TuRtLe
~~~
35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1

wavedash101 | Posted 10/19/2006 2:44:57 PM | message detail

pre-KH Auron I meant to say.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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Samurai7 | Posted 10/19/2006 2:48:30 PM | message detail

pre-KH Auron I meant to say.

The x-stats only have him 1% higher, thats pretty near even.
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade

LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 2:51:38 PM | message detail

Ganon certainly doesn't look noticeably stronger than Zelda at all. The two probably aren't too far off from each other.

My, you weren't singing that tune before the contest!!

And I'm not trying to take anything away from Zelda's performances. I've had her in my bracket from the beginning with little inclination to switch to Aeris, but you can only draw so much out of her performances.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake

Xuxon | Posted 10/19/2006 2:54:14 PM | message detail

pre-KH Auron I meant to say.

The x-stats only have him 1% higher, thats pretty near even.

Dream Division is overrated from Bowser. Look at 2004 Tidus, that's about where he was at last year.
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Samurai7 | Posted 10/19/2006 2:54:39 PM | message detail

HM, you change your tune about a character in an instant. Before the contest you had so many arguements of why Gannon would be stronger than pretty much everyone excluding Samus in the main bracket., now you argue Zelda is stronger than that based on fodder matches?

SAMUS WILL OWN CLOUD, DID YOU SEE LARA?
TIFA WILL BEAT SONIC, LOOK AT THE SMACK DOWN SHE GAVE VYSE

give me a break

You're build up and arguements for Zelda will amount to as much as they did for Gannon... a 50/50 match
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade

Samurai7 | Posted 10/19/2006 2:56:01 PM | message detail

Dream Division is overrated from Bowser. Look at 2004 Tidus, that's about where he was at last year.

Meh I could be wrong, but like I said, its not the standard Arch-type character cast. Just like FFVI isn't a standard Arch-type. Zelda is, down to the dot.
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade

XIII_rocks | Posted 10/19/2006 2:56:55 PM | message detail

Boring match, since Joanna could have been SFF'd by Mario last year, although this will give Yuna a chance to impress while the winner of Chun-Li/Yuna will likely look like crap.

And here I was thinking you were worried about Lara. :(
Lara's chances in that match are looking better and better
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AC2K6 Score: 40/42 Today: Aeris

LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 2:58:50 PM | message detail

The Dream Division isn't overrated by THAT much, nor Lara underrated by that much.
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Mumei | Posted 10/19/2006 3:10:40 PM | message detail

15:00 - 63.12%
15:30 - 62.97%
16:00 - 62.86%
16:30 - 62.72%
17:00 - 62.63%
17:30 - 62.53%
18:00 - 62.36%

And down to 62.30% at 18:10.

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived"- Sensei, "Kokoro"

LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 3:12:21 PM | message detail

For the heck of it, here is the 2005 Dream Division based on 2004 Tidus:

Bowser Koopa – 33.54%
Kirby – 32.10%
Ryu – 27.52%
Tidus – 27.19%
Rikku – 24.37%
Chun-Li – 22.87%
Cecil Harvey – 15.92%
King of All Cosmos – 14.93%

This puts Bowser below Ganondorf by .1% in the 2005 stats. Other characters who are affected by this:

Leon Kennedy - 29.88% (2.38% above 2005)
The Prince of Persia - 24.59%
Kratos - 23.61%
Lenneth Valkyrie - 12.19%
Kairi - 20.33%
Claire Redfield - 19.49%
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake

LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 3:15:00 PM | message detail

Oh, and more importantly:

Squall Leonhart - 48.59%
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake

MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/19/2006 3:16:19 PM | message detail

FFVII is B8's number 1 game.

Nah, board 8 much prefers Animal Crossing.
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Hispanics 2 | Whites 5
Asians 5 | Blacks 3

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 3:16:39 PM | message detail

HM, you change your tune about a character in an instant. Before the contest you had so many arguements of why Gannon would be stronger than pretty much everyone excluding Samus in the main bracket., now you argue Zelda is stronger than that based on fodder matches?

My argument for Ganon taking the male bracket was simple: I thought Twilight Princess was going to come out before his match with Sonic. If Ganon could have beaten Sonic, he could have just as easy taken the entire bracket. If I'm going to go as far as taking him over Sonic, I might as well go the distance with him on the whole male bracket considering how close Sonic, Mega Man, and Crono were.

However, I did not think Ganon was that strong by himself. The amount I adjusted Ganon from 2005 was to put him barely above Vincent. If he ends up there, it means I underrated the amount Vincent boosted from DoC. That has nothing to do with my argument for Zelda, which is that she isn't far off from him thanks to boosting this year.

People call me crazy and then they don't even fully grasp what I was saying. Did I think that Ganon was going to easily beat Vincent? No. I said plenty of times before the match that Vincent could just as easily win like Ganon. I simply believed that Ganon would be able to hold on to his slim advantage and that Vincent wouldn't boost much.

There is no reason to completely ignore Zelda's matches and pass them off as nothing. That is nothing short of silly. Zelda went up against Terra Branford, a Square character, who we had data on beforehand. She wasn't bottom of the barrel fodder by any means. Zelda had no problem going from a projected 72% to 80% in that match. Does that mean it was all Zelda? No, certainly not. But do we ignore it as nothing? Perhaps if you desperately want to think Aeris has a shot.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"

LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 3:17:58 PM | message detail

I'm not saying it's nothing, but don't draw too much from it or you'll end up like we did with Vincent and Tifa last year.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake

Samurai7 | Posted 10/19/2006 3:19:29 PM | message detail

There is no reason to completely ignore Zelda's matches and pass them off as nothing. That is nothing short of silly.

You know what else is silly? Ever single one of your gambles in every contest.
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade

MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/19/2006 3:21:08 PM | message detail

lol HM-stats
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Hispanics 2 | Whites 5
Asians 5 | Blacks 3

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 3:22:41 PM | message detail

I'm not saying it's nothing, but don't draw too much from it or you'll end up like we did with Vincent and Tifa last year.

I'm not calling for Zelda to win the main bracket or anything. I do think that she will beat Aeris without much of a problem because of her performances combined with Aeris's lackluster ones. She is already ahead of Aeris 2k3, and Aeris looks to be at the level in a best case scenario. Most think Zelda has boosted at least some, which is completely reasonable, so Zelda over Aeris is something I'm not worried about.

As for the Zelda getting 45% on Samus, I think that's easy enough to see happening if she boosted and gets some rSFF. I don't think anyone is coming up with Tifa or Vincent-like situations.

You know what else is silly? Ever single one of your gambles in every contest.

As is your explanation for Ganon being so far above Zelda.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"

Samurai7 | Posted 10/19/2006 3:26:50 PM | message detail

MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 3:38:08 PM | message detail

You mold evidence to support theories, not theories to support evidence HM. Jumping at the chance of a big upset because you can make it look possible is rediculous. Zelda beating Aeris isn't rediculous, but being so confident that it will be a comfortable margin and thinking that blow outs against fodder promise a Zelda victory is foolish.

Can you tell me why this match is debated over and was expected to be very close with either winning? Because they were both close in the stats. Why were they both close in the stats? Because they had performances on fodder and non-fodder alike.

We have nothing to base our arguments on other than performances by these characters. To this point, Aeris has been extremely unimpressive in two rounds. She wasn't impressive against the admittedly untested Marle and she is vastly statistical expectations in this match -- she was projected to get 67% here in best case and 63% in worst case and she's still under that.

Zelda, on the other hand, absolutely dominated Carmen Sandiego by getting the biggest blowout of the round with 86% and being the only character to ever get over 100,000 individual votes (102,000 approximately). Just yesterday she destroys Terra Branford, a character that we had seen before and was high-end fodder, with 80% after being projected to gather 72%.

You're telling me that we should ignore all of this and just continue under the assumption that this is a 50/50 match with no conclusive favorite? That's insane. Zelda was already projected to beat Aeris 2k3 by about 51%. There is nothing I have to twist or mold in order to do that. Zelda 2k5 beats Aeris 2k3 with 51%. She is already in an advantageous position; now who looks even stronger right now, Zelda or Aeris?

And for the record, Zelda 2k5 is projected to beat Aeris 2k2 with 54% of the vote. Is it possible that Aeris, who only benefited 2% from a Square shift in 2003, regressed back to her 2002 strength? I think so, yes. She missed every contest up until this point -- and only made this one with the addition of an entire bracket dedicated to 32 females. What, may I ask, is so ridiculous about my confidence in Zelda or suspecting that it will not be that close?

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"

H__RR____H | Posted 10/19/2006 3:40:32 PM | message detail

Remember when Link beat CATS about one percent worse than Cloud, and it didn't mean a single thing and wasn't indicative of their upcoming match later that contest at all?
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