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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 397

King Bowser | Posted 10/19/2006 11:32:03 AM | message detail
What does Zelda have to do with anything?

...I wasn't telling you anything; I was just making mention of Zelda. Every performance Aeris has relates directly to her match with Zelda.

It doesn't have to be all XS III anyway. 24% at base Link is still under her 2k4 value.

Yeah. By a whopping .24%. Woohoo!

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
Kaxon | Posted 10/19/2006 11:33:06 AM | message detail
I think you tend to overexaggerate boosts for characters just a bit too much.

To see that coming from you, XD.

I don't think a 2.7% boost is a stretch for a couple reasons. One, it's a lot easier to boost when you're down at KOS-MOS's level than, to pick a totally random example, Ganon's level. Second, she's just returning to her old strength anyway... so if people who voted for her in 2003 and 2004 have liked her new game, or even just heard good things about it, she could recover that strength much more easily than someone trying to move up to a new level. Of course, I can't claim that this isn't disappointing for Aeris. I'm just saying it doesn't mean she'd lose to Luigi (especially Luigi 2k5).
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....TCELES B HSUP
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/19/2006 11:34:01 AM | message detail
totally random example

Yeah....random...right... >_>
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CB5 Points: 39/42, Current Oracle placement: 37/163
Now playing: Okami
consolefreak | Posted 10/19/2006 11:34:19 AM | message detail
...I wasn't telling you anything; I was just making mention of Zelda. Every performance Aeris has relates directly to her match with Zelda.

Yeah well, we can agree on that then. Zelda's the huge favourite.

Yeah. By a whopping .24%. Woohoo!

You're going to take me on the wording? Whatever. "Around" her 2k4 level then. And that's still being conservative; she's had XS II and III since then.
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CB: 38/40. Today: Zelda vs. Terra. Tomorrow: KOS-MOS vs. Aeris.
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/19/2006 11:35:19 AM | message detail
I think it's perfectly acceptable for Aeris.
Without a boost since last year, Zelda loses to Aeris.
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Smurf. The Cream of Jill Valentine Fanboyism.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 11:42:14 AM | message detail
Why the hell is everyone so sold on SMS boosting Mario to ridiculous levels to thwart Cloud in 2K2? How about things were just different back then. Would Cloud have won without it? Yeah, but that doesn't mean Mario boosted into the stratosphere due to it coming out that day, we have no idea where either of those characters stood back then. I'm really not sold on day of the match releases boosting characters that much. I'd rather have the match come a week later when people have actually played the game.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/19/2006 11:43:34 AM | message detail
If it had boosted Mario that much, he probably would have beaten Link too, no?
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CB5 Points: 39/42, Current Oracle placement: 37/163
Now playing: Okami
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/19/2006 11:44:31 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/19/2006 11:45:06 AM | message detail
Considering Megaman gave Sephiroth a run for his money, I don't think Cloud would have beaten Mario too badly. Though I do think he would have won without those circumstances, if only by like, 1%

In any case, Cloud technicaly doing worse than Crono is ridiculous
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 11:45:54 AM | message detail
Depends where you think his value without it sat. Either way, people need to just realize we can't draw anything solid from 2K2.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/19/2006 11:47:18 AM | message detail
No, because Link has the SFF advantage over Mario.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/19/2006 11:48:53 AM | message detail
No one is trying to draw anything conclussive from 2k2. ANy talk of it is for fun at this point, no doubt.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 11:51:38 AM | message detail
No one is trying to draw anything conclussive from 2k2. ANy talk of it is for fun at this point, no doubt.

KHF, releases on the day of matches causing huge boosts? Both of those have been talked about very seriously, yet rely on 2K2. Either way, I don't want to start up another KHF debate, just that people do take things from that year and draw conclusions for years past then.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/19/2006 11:53:41 AM | message detail
Again, anyone talking about them at this point is talking about them for fun. Those of us with a predisposition towards X-Stat addiction will talk about any numbers/factors seriously, it doesn't mean that anyone if going to use those numbers for anything.

Really, it's for personal enjoyment. You know, fun. :)
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 11:56:49 AM | message detail
KOS looking to win the day vote again? I sure hope so!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Kaxon | Posted 10/19/2006 11:57:38 AM | message detail
In any case, Cloud technicaly doing worse than Crono is ridiculous

For a contest held in 2002, it's not that ridiculous...

Poll 366 (11/29/2000)
What's the best Squaresoft game of all time?

441 5.03% Chrono Cross
1886 21.53% Chrono Trigger
1358 15.5% Final Fantasy VI (III)
1882 21.48% Final Fantasy VII
751 8.57% Final Fantasy IX
728 8.31% Final Fantasy Tactics
987 11.27% Xenogears
727 8.3% Other
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....TCELES B HSUP
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/19/2006 12:03:59 PM | message detail
It's ridiculous because the match was so close. Even if Cloud would of only ended up a sliver better than Crono, he WOULD of beat Mario without Sunshine coming out on the day of the match. I don't see how anyone can debate that.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 12:05:17 PM | message detail
No one debates that, I'm disagreeing about it giving Mario a huge ass boost.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/19/2006 12:06:58 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS is overperforming because of her boobs
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/19/2006 12:11:37 PM | message detail
I think SMS didn't only affect Mario on his match with Cloud, but also his match with Crono (it was only 4 days later), though more on Mario/Cloud. Mario would've beaten Crono with 51.5% if CJayC actually bothered to take out the remaining 2,500 stuffed votes for Crono...

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Haste_2 | Posted 10/19/2006 12:13:24 PM | message detail
Oh, and what The n00b avenger said. That said, I wouldn't want to count Aeris out (see foreshadowing of Mario/Crono in 2K3), but obviously Zelda should be favored.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/19/2006 12:16:01 PM | message detail
Well, more like a 51.25% victory.

Under 56% for Aeris that time. GO JUG FACTOR
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 12:16:19 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure you're underrating Tifa and Zelda's 4-packs, and overrating Rikku's and possibly Peach's.

At this point, I'm not trying to look for potential boosts and whatnot. I'm mostly just sticking in a value from a previous contest and seeing what it looks like. I think this will help give an idea of who boosted, who dropped, etc. It's not meant to be accurate.

Serge's time has come and gone. He would have been a good new character in 2003 or maybe 2004. I doubt he'd be worth much now - I certainly wouldn't take him over Zidane.

Meh, after seeing Marle come awfully close to breaching the fodder line and Lavos looking half decent, I still want to see what the Chrono Cross main can do. He probably wouldn't do much, but you never know.

I'm really not up for trusting KOS-MOS 2k4 when there is nothing wrong with KOS-MOS 2k5, which is her more recent strength.

Nothing wrong with it except it drops Aeris down in the 29% range on BL, and she loses to Luigi 2005 with 46.05% of the vote. I'm all for Tifa > Aeris, but not by THAT much.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 12:17:44 PM | message detail
KOS "The Day Vote Queen" MOS

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 12:17:54 PM | message detail
Oh, and since someone was asking for the projected stats from round 1, I still have them.

Samus Aran – 41.69%
Crono – 39.87%
Mega Man – 38.79%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 38.50%
Solid Snake – 36.97%
Bowser Koopa – 36.54%
Auron – 36.28%
Vincent Valentine – 35.58%
Squall Leonhart – 35.16%
Kirby – 34.99%
Luigi – 34.66%
Dante Sparda – 34.12%
Ganondorf – 33.74%
Princess Zelda – 33.71%
Tifa Lockhart – 33.57%
Aeris Gainsborough – 32.81%
Leon Kennedy – 32.56%
Zero – 32.09%
Sora – 32.00%
Sub-Zero – 31.50%
Master Chief – 30.87%
Ryu – 29.98%
Yoshi – 29.01%
The Prince of Persia – 26.80%
Rikku – 26.55%
Yuna – 26.10%
Riku – 25.99%
Alucard – 25.83%
Kratos – 25.72%
Gordon Freeman – 25.60%
Chun-Li – 24.92%
Ryu Hayabusa – 23.75%
Jill Valentine – 23.74%
Princess Peach – 23.50%
Axel – 23.37%
The Boss – 23.00%
Phoenix Wright – 21.40%
KOS-MOS – 21.30%
Captain Falcon – 20.60%
Marle – 19.83%
Tidus – 19.68%
Kairi – 19.39%
Terra Branford – 18.65%
Ada Wong – 18.64%
Claire Redfield – 18.58%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 18.03%
Celes Chere – 17.90%
Lara Croft – 16.75%
Joanna Dark – 16.50%
Ivy Valentine – 15.99%
Tingle – 15.61%
Kasumi – 15.58%
Sarah Kerrigan – 15.41%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
CATS – 14.82%
Amy Rose – 14.73%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 13.28%
Soma Cruz – 13.20%
Cortana – 13.12%
Roll – 10.81%
Carmen Sandiego – 9.38%
Jade – 9.00%
Princess Daisy – 7.94%
Alyx Vance – 7.52%

*points and laughs*

Oh, and Ulti can't say I was calling Peach total joke fodder at the end of round 1.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/19/2006 12:20:33 PM | message detail
Holy crap, KOS-MOS. She could even win a update in here somewhere if this keeps up.
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CB5 Points: 39/42, Current Oracle placement: 37/163
Now playing: Okami
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 12:22:05 PM | message detail
Holy crap, KOS-MOS. She could even win a update in here somewhere if this keeps up.

In her best update Aeris still went up 65 votes. >_>

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/19/2006 12:22:45 PM | message detail
Could, damnit! I said could!
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CB5 Points: 39/42, Current Oracle placement: 37/163
Now playing: Okami
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/19/2006 12:26:16 PM | message detail
Oh man the kiddies love the boobs.

And now I bid you all farewell, because I know you need to know that I'm leaving.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/19/2006 12:52:13 PM | message detail
Aeris is losing the day vote to KOS-MOS.

Zelda is going to destroy her.
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caps
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 12:58:19 PM | message detail
The FFVII ladies don't appear to be too good with the day vote.

And remember that trends don't determine the outcome, folks.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 12:59:50 PM | message detail
Zelda is going to destroy her.

It won't be just the day vote where she destroys her either! The whole match will be one awesome Zelda domination!!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/19/2006 1:00:18 PM | message detail
No, but getting 63% on KOS-MOS and 80% on Terra do!
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caps
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/19/2006 1:02:46 PM | message detail
I think this is explaining why Sheena did so good in the day against Jill. The kiddies appearantly love cleavage from anime looking girls!
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/19/2006 1:06:16 PM | message detail
Cult character winning the day vote over popular FF7 character? Man, FF7 females do suck with the day vote, while the men are good with it.

Then again, I can't blame Aeris, KOS-MOS looks great.

And woo for being right about Luigi overperforming on KOS-MOS and not trusting that 2005 value, because I don't think Luigi has boosted that much over Aeris.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
KOS-MOS vs. Aeris - Bracket: Aeris - Vote: KOS-MOS (38/42)
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 1:07:16 PM | message detail
No, but getting 63% on KOS-MOS and 80% on Terra do!

80% on Terra means nothing to me right now. You can't base anything off of an obvious overperformance.

But for a good comparison of day vote suckitude, Zelda took Snake from 57.21% to 54.41% there.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/19/2006 1:07:39 PM | message detail
Or maybe he did and that's how he kicked Zero's ass.

SONIC IS SO SCREWED
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2006 1:11:51 PM | message detail
Also, just curious...

...but Carmen Sandiego is expected to get 40.99% against Kerrigan according to the stats. Do you feel that's too much for Carmen's exposure -- exposure she couldn't use against Zelda -- to take advantage of Kerrigan's weakness and make it close? I'm not saying win, but to make it a close affair?
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LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 1:19:58 PM | message detail
Eh, cult characters aren't as bad with the day vote as people think. KOS-MOS won it against Ryu before (then again, it IS Ryu), and Albedo won it against Bison (once again, it's SF we're talking about).

Sora/HK-47 had very minimal shifts, despite the KH day vote, which he ripped Hayabusa using. Vyse did lose it to Cloud, but then again, it's Cloud, one of the most anti-voted characters by the board. He's almost guaranteed to gain with the day vote, unless he's facing Link. The same thing happened with Sephiroth/Ramirez. Vyse actually DID take the day vote from Tifa, however.

...I just realized that Ultros had 39%+ on Wily before the morning vote hit. Man, the FFVI day vote sucks. Mithos took the day vote from Kefka when Wesker did NOTHING with it. Man, the FFVI and RE day votes suck.

Giygas got beat down pretty badly with the day vote. Ghaleon did take it from Vergil, and Lavos took it from Liquid Snake. Man, the MGS day vote sucks.

KOS-MOS actually took the after school vote from Luigi and didn't get utterly destroyed by the morning vote. She gained 1.5% from her lowest percentage in the morning. Laharl lost ground to Yoshi though.

Kratos Aurion took the day vote from Diablo, who destroyed Kefka and Bison with it (then again, it's FFVI and SF). Lloyd took it from Wesker, too. Then again, it's RE.

In general, it seems that cult characters face characters who suck with the day vote.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 1:20:47 PM | message detail
...but Carmen Sandiego is expected to get 40.99% against Kerrigan according to the stats. Do you feel that's too much for Carmen's exposure -- exposure she couldn't use against Zelda -- to take advantage of Kerrigan's weakness and make it close? I'm not saying win, but to make it a close affair?

Zelda overperformed on Terra. She did. Denying this is just silly.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2006 1:24:36 PM | message detail
I would buy Terra and Kerrigan both dropping before I buy an over-performance there. I ain't saying Zelda's beating Mario or is even a Noble Nine breaker now, but you're cutting Zelda afew props short there too.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/19/2006 1:25:08 PM | message detail
I actually would have taken Carmen Sandiego over Kerrigan before I saw any matches this year >_<
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 1:25:30 PM | message detail
This ain't all Zelda increasing and likewise it's not all them dropping. It's in the middle ground, and thus, it's an overperformance.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
wavedash101 | Posted 10/19/2006 1:26:33 PM | message detail
Man what I would give to see HK-47 win a match...too bad he only has the Xbox/PC fanbase which isnt good enough...

Also they better get to work on KOTOR 3 soon, Mass Effect or not..

*imagines Mass Effect-like KOTOR with the graphix, huge worlds and a Wookie Jedi...yeah that would be the best...*
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Samurai7 | Posted 10/19/2006 1:27:57 PM | message detail
There won't be a KotOR 3 unless obsidian does it... Mass Effect is all ready slated to be a trilogy
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/19/2006 1:28:22 PM | message detail
Zelda definitely looks stronger than she did last year. I would wager she increased along with her ability to blowout fodder and maybe a bit of Terra decreasing.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2006 1:36:33 PM | message detail
There's a difference between one rising with one (or two here) dropping and an over-performance though -- I think that's just the safe way of saying SFF in a smaller way...and I think if you give Terra an equally strong opponent as Zelda, that same result happens. If that is how it really is, then Carmen's still expected to get 41% on Kerrigan statistically.
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/19/2006 1:39:43 PM | message detail
KOTOR was also slated to be a trilogy and both games sold alot. If they can find time for Jade Empire 2 (lol inferior game) they'll find it for one of (and I believe THE) best selling series they have.

And Lucasarts better not rush the damn development to meet a holiday release...the HK factory was cut out of KOTOR 2 cause of that...as well as any semblance of an ending to the game...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/19/2006 1:41:22 PM | message detail
and I think if you give Terra an equally strong opponent as Zelda, that same result happens

Dante didn't do it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
HaRRicH | Posted 10/19/2006 1:43:50 PM | message detail
Who said Dante's on Zelda's level this year?
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