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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 396

King Bowser | Posted 10/18/2006 5:33:04 PM | message detail
You're lucky Samus is gonna pistol whip that ***** down before she gets a chance to make you look like a fool... again. Seriously, stick to one Nintendo character per contest, this is the 3rd bandwagon you've jumped on now. 0/2 buddy !!

Pfft! When Zelda is netting 46% on Samus we'll see who is looking foolish, Mr. Zelda Isn't Going To Match Dante's Performance!


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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 5:33:05 PM | message detail
Given the circumstances and the competition, that's damn near unheard of.

Sephiroth/Liquid, Tifa/Vyse, Samus/Frog, Mega Man/Tidus, Squall/Tidus, Luigi/KOS-MOS, Mega Man/Yoshi, Squall/Luigi, Cloud/Sonic, Bowser/Ryu, Snake/Sora, Vincent/Kerrigan, Sora/Hayabusa, Mario/Zero, Samus/Lara Croft, Samus/Sam Fisher, and probably all of the other matches anything KH was related to in 2003.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2006 5:34:32 PM | message detail
Pfft! When Zelda is netting 46% on Samus we'll see who is looking foolish, Mr. Zelda Isn't Going To Match Dante's Performance!

Hardcore SNES SFF slipped my mind. Jeeze.

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Portugal. The Man
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 5:35:24 PM | message detail
This isn't SNES SFF. This is Zelda being...well, Zelda. Do people really think Terra does significantly better than this a year ago?
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/18/2006 5:36:44 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Draco1214 | Posted 10/18/2006 5:37:30 PM | message detail
Also, Vivi/Zelda seems appropriate to mention since that result caused people to think she stood a chance against Solid Snake (man, Snake had a huge target on him last year).
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2006 5:37:43 PM | message detail
No... that's kind of the point of labeling it as an overperformance aka SFF. I don't know why people have such a hard time calling a big overperformance SFF, it obviously is, otherwise every match would go exactly as the stats say. Either way, Zelda overperformance, Terra didn't drop off this badly, and Dante isn't getting his ass handed to him by midcarders.

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Portugal. The Man
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BDawg | Posted 10/18/2006 5:38:39 PM | message detail
Has Terra bottomed out yet or is this actually going to the quad?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/18/2006 5:39:07 PM | message detail
Hardcore SNES SFF slipped my mind. Jeeze.

I sincerely doubt that Zelda gets a large amount of her strength from the SNES. Even SSBM was probably bigger for her than LttP.

This isn't SNES SFF. This is Zelda being...well, Zelda. Do people really think Terra does significantly better than this a year ago?

Zelda's hardly the fodder killer you think she is. She made Lara look way better than Samus did, and she failed to get 90% on Carmen.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 5:39:48 PM | message detail
I'm not calling this as SFF because I feel Zelda would kill, say, Vyse or Laharl much worse than expected. There's no possible way you could think that there's a disproportionate overlap with Zelda and those games there, yet I feel it would happen.

I also don't think Ganondorf would be doing this to Terra.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 5:40:46 PM | message detail
Zelda's hardly the fodder killer you think she is. She made Lara look way better than Samus did

That match is bunk, don't bring it up.

, and she failed to get 90% on Carmen.

...how many 90% blowouts have we EVER seen, again?
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/18/2006 5:41:32 PM | message detail
I feel that Zelda overperforms with the TP picture. It's most likely why she killed Vivi so bad.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2006 5:41:42 PM | message detail
I wasn't really serious with SNES SFF... but I still call it SFF one way or the other, significant overperformance = SFF to me.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2006 5:41:53 PM | message detail
Sephiroth/Liquid, Tifa/Vyse, Samus/Frog, Mega Man/Tidus, Squall/Tidus, Luigi/KOS-MOS, Mega Man/Yoshi, Squall/Luigi, Cloud/Sonic, Bowser/Ryu, Snake/Sora, Vincent/Kerrigan, Sora/Hayabusa, Mario/Zero, Samus/Lara Croft, Samus/Sam Fisher, and probably all of the other matches anything KH was related to in 2003.

The only one that really supports your point (if you even have one) is Samus/Frog. All the others either have some SFF strewn about, are matches in which at least one character had no contest history, or are matches in which one character actually did experience a noticeable boost/decline.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 5:46:32 PM | message detail
The only one that really supports your point (if you even have one) is Samus/Frog. All the others either have some SFF strewn about, are matches in which at least one character had no contest history, or are matches in which one character actually did experience a noticeable boost/decline.

Mega Man/Tidus is a match where both characters had two years of data on them, and no possible SFF. Mega still did better than Link was projected to.

You can't use that argument because you don't know how this is going to turn out in the end. If Zelda ends up exactly where she was last year, then -- SHOCK AND AWE -- Terra will appear to have taken a notable decline.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2006 5:48:15 PM | message detail
The only one that really supports your point (if you even have one) is Samus/Frog. All the others either have some SFF strewn about, are matches in which at least one character had no contest history, or are matches in which one character actually did experience a noticeable boost/decline.

Uh... well of course they're going to take a noticeable decline if there's an overperformance, that's kind of what it means.

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Portugal. The Man
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 5:50:12 PM | message detail
But, I mean...why did we tag Tifa/Vyse with the SFF label? Because it looks weird for Vyse to be below Laharl after the 60-40 win last time, right? But in theory, it's a Playstation RPG character against a Dreamcast/Gamecube RPG character. At that point you're just banking on the fabled 'RPG SFF' to explain things. That doesn't cut it for me.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2006 5:52:08 PM | message detail
Which is just as legit as saying SNES SFF to me. Either way, FF7/LoZ/Mario characters are going to be able to get SFF (weird overperformances) on anyone, it just depends on if there opponent can't stand up to it or not. I don't think there should be such a distinction between overperformance and SFF.

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Portugal. The Man
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2006 5:52:10 PM | message detail
Confusion.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 10/18/2006 5:53:37 PM | message detail
This is one thing about these stat topics that always annoyed me. Everything mentioning SFF gets blown out of proportion.

~Hiko~
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Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/18/2006 5:55:54 PM | message detail
Yeah this match reminds me of Tifa/Vyse. I still think Zelda won't have much trouble with Aeris but I'm waiting until Zelda gets a real opponent (Aeris) to make any calls.

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2006 5:56:15 PM | message detail
God... you'd think people wouldn't get so goddamn touchy over an acronym.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2006 5:56:47 PM | message detail
Anyway, I still think Zelda has easily had the two most impressive performances in the female bracket, and maybe even the most impressive performances in the entire contest. The only contender so far is Luigi, and I'd consider what Zelda's done so far to be more impressive.

Besides... people are so quick to point out the Tifa/Vyse thing. After that match, there were claims of Tifa being the favorite against Sonic and Mega Man. There are no such claims right now. Most people simply feel she should go in as the heavy favorite against Aeris, and really, she should.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 5:57:12 PM | message detail
All I'm saying is that Zelda can and may well have boosted, but this isn't concrete evidence of anything. Vincent was projected to win the contest on the assumption that Kerrigan = 2004 Gordon Freeman. Tifa was flat-out expected to make the Final Four by half the stat regulars here. And amazingly, those projections actually aren't as farfetched as the ones that people are making now -- because we didn't have contest data on them, it was possible that was the true strength of those characters from the beginning.

We know who Zelda is. She's very strong and can hold her own against any near-elite, but she's not an elite. Not yet, anyway.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2006 5:57:46 PM | message detail
Besides... people are so quick to point out the Tifa/Vyse thing. After that match, there were claims of Tifa being the favorite against Sonic and Mega Man. There are no such claims right now. Most people simply feel she should go in as the heavy favorite against Aeris, and really, she should.

I've heard some pretty ridiculous %'s on Samus!

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Portugal. The Man
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 5:58:42 PM | message detail
After that match, there were claims of Tifa being the favorite against Sonic and Mega Man. There are no such claims right now.

I'm hearing 45-46% on Samus bantered around a LOT, and at face value it's practically the same thing. Plus, you'd hear a lot more people thinking she could challenge Samus if this was Zelda's first contest...
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Lopen | Posted 10/18/2006 5:59:09 PM | message detail
If Crono or Mega Man were in this half of the bracket I bet people would be ranting about a Zelda upset, too. But Samus is never one to get underestimated in these topics.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2006 5:59:57 PM | message detail
If Crono or Mega Man were in this half of the bracket I bet people would be ranting about a Zelda upset, too. But Samus is never one to get underestimated in these topics.

Huh? There's way too many people cool with Samus' x-stat value, that's some serious underestimation right there.

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Portugal. The Man
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 6:00:48 PM | message detail
Huh? There's way too many people cool with Samus' x-stat value, that's some serious underestimation right there.

Unless I did the math wrong, she's only stronger than Mario by a touch by your standards.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2006 6:01:54 PM | message detail
2.5%, but close enough.

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King Bowser | Posted 10/18/2006 6:01:54 PM | message detail
Yeah this match reminds me of Tifa/Vyse. I still think Zelda won't have much trouble with Aeris but I'm waiting until Zelda gets a real opponent (Aeris) to make any calls.

The comparisons to that match are a big strange. I suppose it's just because it's easy to attach to something recent where a character overperformed, but Tifa/Vyse could have something explainable in it whereas there's nothing really here to explain this one, especially since it's a Nintendo/Square match.

But, of course, there is obviously something going on in this match; it's certainly not all Zelda here. I do think, though, that this is as good an indication as any that she has boosted. Perhaps it's not concrete, but it's enough for me to believe that she'll at least make it to Samus. Zelda hasn't shown even the slightest weakness in her two matches so far.

I don't think anyone is calling for her to really beat Samus, which is why I'm not sure why there is much arguing going on here. I've always expected Zelda to get much more than she's projected to against Samus, but even this isn't really convincing anyone that she's going to beat her. What it does do is put her as the rightful favorite against Aeris.

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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2006 6:02:22 PM | message detail
oh and 2.5 is more like 2.3 >_>

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2006 6:02:25 PM | message detail
I'm hearing 45-46% on Samus bantered around a LOT, and at face value it's practically the same thing.

*shrugs*

I've been saying that wouldn't surprise me since about a month before the contest. I think HM and a few others have been thinking that for a while also. Seriously, have that many new people been saying this today?
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King Bowser | Posted 10/18/2006 6:04:17 PM | message detail
I'm hearing 45-46% on Samus bantered around a LOT, and at face value it's practically the same thing. Plus, you'd hear a lot more people thinking she could challenge Samus if this was Zelda's first contest...

If Zelda boosts some and then manages to get some of that good ol' rSFF, I really don't think it's anywhere near the same thing as saying that she's going to beat her or that she's going to win the main bracket or whatever. Zelda overperforming has been in the cards from the beginning, I think. You would almost expect her to do that regardless of any performances because of who she is and who she's up against.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/18/2006 6:04:41 PM | message detail
The comparisons to that match are a big strange. I suppose it's just because it's easy to attach to something recent where a character overperformed, but Tifa/Vyse could have something explainable in it whereas there's nothing really here to explain this one, especially since it's a Nintendo/Square match.

Nintendo/Square doesn't matter, people seem to want to ignore that FF6 was on a Nintendo system. You may as well say SMRPG isn't going to have SFF with Zelda, because it's a Square/Nintendo match.

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Portugal. The Man
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 6:05:25 PM | message detail
2.5%, but close enough.

I'd thought you'd given up that Samus = Seph 2k4 nonsense a while back! Going by Samus not SFFing Ganon and a negligible Vincent boost she's not much stronger at all.

*checks*

Actually, she may be a tad weaker.
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King Bowser | Posted 10/18/2006 6:06:35 PM | message detail
Nintendo/Square doesn't matter, people seem to want to ignore that FF6 was on a Nintendo system. You may as well say SMRPG isn't going to have SFF with Zelda, because it's a Square/Nintendo match.

...Sure. If you ignore the fact that SMRPG is Super Mario RPG, which has absolutely nothing to do with Square other than being the person who made the game. Terra is from Final Fantasy. You could say this is a Zelda/Final Fantasy match where Zelda is getting some "SFF." I'm afraid that sounds far too strange for me to even consider...but people seem to apply SFF to everything these days.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 6:06:55 PM | message detail
FF6 may have been on a Nintendo system, but the fanbases seem pretty distinct. The voting trends in the LttP/FFVI match (not to mention that match was reasonably close) basically proves that.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 6:09:32 PM | message detail
Comparing this to Tifa/Vyse is confusing.

Vyse was a one hit wonder, so it makes sense that his strength would drop off significantly.

FF6 has been around since 1993(?), so I highly doubt Terra would significantly decrease from last year, let alone her AND Kerrigan decreasing by roughly the same amount.

In all those other matches, people had great reason to drop/boost. Tidus has been losing popularity every year since his crappy game plagued the FF series. "One hit wonder" characters are known to just completely fall off the map (lol claire).

There is no reason for Terra to have dropped significantly enough to make Zelda's apparant boost seem reasonable. The only explanation is a boost + TP Zelda overperformance.

I'll call it right now, if Zelda gets a TP pic, she's beating Aeris with 55% at the least


TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy"- trancer1
King Bowser | Posted 10/18/2006 6:10:59 PM | message detail
I'll call it right now, if Zelda gets a TP pic, she's beating Aeris with 55% at the least

I would think the next round would be sprites. She'll still beat Aeris comfortably, I think, but the TP picture probably won't be there.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 6:11:23 PM | message detail
Vyse was a one hit wonder, so it makes sense that his strength would drop off significantly.

He stayed constant for two years. -_-

There's a reason why people made him the ****ing fodder line.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 6:11:24 PM | message detail
It's the same reason why I think Crono and Kefka are two of the most consistant characters in the contest. They've both been around for 10+ years, and neither are looking to have a new release ever. If they haven't fallen off the map after 10+ years, they aren't going to be any time soon.


TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy"- trancer1
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 6:12:37 PM | message detail
I would think the next round would be sprites.

Yeah, I wish. =(
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 6:12:48 PM | message detail
Unless the sprite round this year is in the elite 8 like last year.


TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy"- trancer1
shadow8021 | Posted 10/18/2006 6:14:33 PM | message detail
lol if the Elite 8 was sprites, then kiss Snake's chances at beating Mega Man goodbye.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2006 6:18:28 PM | message detail
I hope CJayC just does away with the stupidass sprite round. They look ugly and lead to tons of whining. JUST STOP IT.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 6:19:15 PM | message detail
I think that's why KH wishes next round was sprites.

On the plus side, Zelda gets her sprite in an unloseable match against the winner of Aeon.


TuRtLe
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"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy"- trancer1
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 6:20:54 PM | message detail
Meh, sprites are cool, Ceej just goes about everything the wrong way. Case in point that awful Resisprite Evil debacle (which I guarantee we'd have never heard the end of if RE had lost). Jill had a fantastic sprite, but unfortunately it was from MvC2! Oh, perish the thought, that's not representative of the actual series!

And so forth. Ease up, Ceej. Just make the match pictures look good for a change.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 6:22:32 PM | message detail
Just a thought, but Snake being in SSBM gives him a sprite that doesn't look like a turd >_>

Clinkeroth is so screwed


TuRtLe
~~~
"Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy"- trancer1
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 6:23:46 PM | message detail
That's not a sprite, that's a polygon model. Snake has plenty of good in-game models, it's the picture he got in his much-beloved Sora smashing.
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