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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 395

HoorayProxies | Posted 10/18/2006 8:56:45 AM | message detail
I'm with Sowl, if Zelda gets more than 41% I'll be pretty surprised, though it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2006 8:57:46 AM | message detail
*waits for HM to show up supporting Zelda > Samus*
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CB5 Points: 37/40, Current Oracle placement: 38/163
Now playing: Okami
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/18/2006 9:00:11 AM | message detail
I *think* 60-40 Samus
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/18/2006 9:00:41 AM | message detail
The only way Zelda outperforms Ganon last year is if Vincent > Sonic, showing that Ganon boosted somewhat, and Zelda is a part of it too. They're equal in the stats last year, and Ganon only has reason to be underrated. If Zelda outperforms him and Sonic > Vincent handily, then Zelda for some weird reason is good with SFF and Ganon is not.

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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/18/2006 9:01:29 AM | message detail
Stranger things have happened.
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CB5 Points: 37/40, Current Oracle placement: 38/163
Now playing: Okami
transience | Posted 10/18/2006 9:02:08 AM | message detail
eh, Terra isn't the type to fluctuate. if she was from an unknown game I would agree, but she's from ff6. this is just a Zelda overperformance for whatever reason. Zelda seems more than capable of beating up fodder for whatever reason.
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xyzzy
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/18/2006 9:02:24 AM | message detail
Which is why I say it's possible, but I seriously, seriously doubt it.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/18/2006 9:03:48 AM | message detail
I've just seen the match pic (when were they put up? o_O) and it looks like we're going to be seeing Legend Lara. Another factor in favour of Lara, woo!
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AC2K6 Score: 38/40 Today: Zelda
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 9:05:31 AM | message detail
A Zelda overperformance would be 75%.

She's looking very good to be pushing 80%.

She's making Terra look like freaking Carmen Sandiego

TuRtLe
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35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/18/2006 9:06:31 AM | message detail
I think this is slight SFF, like what was seen in Crono/Link 2k4.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 9:08:22 AM | message detail
.....SFF between a Nintendo character and a Square character?

Are you going to say the same thing when Zelda is pushing 55% on Aeris next round?

TuRtLe
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35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/18/2006 9:09:52 AM | message detail
Turtle, LttP is on the SNES, the same console that Terra is most popular for being on. The idea that LttP could slightly SFF FFVI for characters isn't that unrealistic.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/18/2006 9:10:18 AM | message detail
The only way Zelda outperforms Ganon last year is if Vincent > Sonic, showing that Ganon boosted somewhat, and Zelda is a part of it too.

Or Sonic > Vincent, and Sonic wins the male bracket!

It will happen.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 9:11:32 AM | message detail
Slightly SFF?

Going from a projected 72% to nearly 80% on a character who had a reliable value last year and is likely very consistant? What is so hard to believe about a second Ninty boost?

We saw the warning signs when SMB nearly took down FF, and Zelda destroyed FF in the BSE.

TuRtLe
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35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 9:12:40 AM | message detail
Vincent > Sonic isn't outside the realm of possibility, but Sonic admittedly looked pretty good against CATS, for what it's worth. I can see that match being pretty damn close.

TuRtLe
~~~
35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/18/2006 9:12:52 AM | message detail
If a second Nintendo boost did happen, then I can safely say that Squall beating Snake is a lock, based on Vincent's DoC boost.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/18/2006 9:13:31 AM | message detail
Oh, and if 51-49 is destroying, then Squall will destroy Snake.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 9:14:13 AM | message detail
And why couldn't Snake have boosted a bit too? He was basically the star of E3 this year with SSB:B and MGS4.

TuRtLe
~~~
35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/18/2006 9:14:37 AM | message detail
I want to see Sonic getting over 53%, maybe 54, because then he's looking very good for Crono.
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AC2K6 Score: 38/40 Today: Zelda
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/18/2006 9:15:23 AM | message detail
Because the DoC boost was only slightly lower than the Nintendo boost AND Twilight Princess hype.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
red sox 777 | Posted 10/18/2006 9:15:24 AM | message detail
Going from a projected 72% to nearly 80% on a character who had a reliable value last year and is likely very consistant? What is so hard to believe about a second Ninty boost?

Ganon/Vincent? How much do you think Vincent boosted? Besides, Tifa did the same thing to Vyse last year that Zelda is doing to Tifa today. She's channeling the Zelda fanbase's votes, but much of that will abandon her once she meets strong opposition.
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"........!" ~Magus
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 9:15:44 AM | message detail
Squall > Snake is also a very possible upset. We have no clue how much Squall could've boosted with KH2

TuRtLe
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35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 9:16:37 AM | message detail

Ganon/Vincent? How much do you think Vincent boosted? Besides, Tifa did the same thing to Vyse last year that Zelda is doing to Tifa today. She's channeling the Zelda fanbase's votes, but much of that will abandon her once she meets strong opposition.


Like Shadow's Sonic proxy votes abandoned him against Mario?

TuRtLe
~~~
35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/18/2006 9:23:45 AM | message detail
And I've been thinking about it the last couple of days, Lara has a very realistic shot to upset Chunners. I can see that match going pretty close either way.

TuRtLe
~~~
35/40 in the contest. My analysis topic here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30498383&page=1
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/18/2006 9:24:49 AM | message detail
Oh, and to people who trust Lara 2004:

Lara Croft (2004c) VS Lara Croft (2003c)

Lara Croft has a strength of 14.91.
Lara Croft has a strength of 22.85.

Lara Croft wins with 67.37% of the vote!
A win of 27,586 with 79,388 total votes cast.

...Um, yeah.
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AC2K6 Score: 38/40 Today: Zelda
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/18/2006 9:25:42 AM | message detail
You're being more delusional than Smurf right now, Ulti. Give it a rest, especially considering you were the one ripping me for being overly arrogant just a couple of weeks ago.

Oh relax, it was all in good fun for one night, and you'd be damn happy if one of your favorite characters that you've loved since childhood won like that. Had Squall come back from down 1430 against Vincent last year, don't tell me you wouldn't have pwned some heads =p

But unlike you, I'm not going to throw quotes in your face a year from now. I had my fun for a day or so, now I'm done. Mostly. That Valvoras topic stays.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI, MMZX
Ed Bellis | Posted 10/18/2006 9:43:38 AM | message detail
The match between Snake and Squall in 2002 and the fact that it may very well have been SFF prevents me from seriously considering the Squall > Snake upset. Squall may have boosted, but it's evident there's clear fanbase overlap between Final Fantasy and Metal Gear, and I doubt Squall will be the favored recipient if that goes down again.
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This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/18/2006 9:54:08 AM | message detail
I still feel pretty good with Chun-Li. Lara won't be as weak as she was in 2004, but I doubt she's at her 2003 level either.

And gooo Zelda!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Zelda vs. Terra - Bracket: Zelda - Vote: Zeldal (36/40)
HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2006 10:07:40 AM | message detail
Squall > Solid is the NN upset I take most seriously here...if that one doesn't happen, I don't see any of the rest happening either. However, I still think Squall will land no higher than 49%.
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Big Bob | Posted 10/18/2006 10:29:59 AM | message detail
I hope Sonic beats Vincent with 56%. >.>
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/18/2006 10:34:01 AM | message detail
Zelda is doing very nice here! I was hoping she wouldn't fall too much and it doesn't appear that she ever fell under 76%. Now she just needs to use that monstrous after school vote to get nearly 80%!!


It won't be closer then Samus/Ganondorf last year.

I think it will be much closer than Samus/Ganon last year. That does not mean that Zelda is stronger than Ganon considering there are a number of different factors that could result in that match. It would not be surprising at all to see Zelda getting over 45%+ against Samus in that match.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/18/2006 10:37:24 AM | message detail
I think this is slight SFF, like what was seen in Crono/Link 2k4.

...?

There was no SFF whatsoever in that match. Link beating Crono by a percent more than he's expected to doesn't attach any factor like that to the match. The stats are not 100% accurate.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
HaRRicH | Posted 10/18/2006 10:40:26 AM | message detail
If Zelda gets 45+%, then there's no way I take Ganon over her unless Vincent beats Sonic. That said, I fully expect her to outdo Ganon, though probably finish no higher than 43%.
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Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Weird Al Yankovic (#9)
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/18/2006 10:57:32 AM | message detail
HM, I had thought Crono had only gotten 35% on Link, not 37%.

I still think there is SLIGHT SFF in this match, but only 2% at max >_>
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/18/2006 11:03:30 AM | message detail
You do realize that Crono actually ends up stronger that year than in 2003, right? Link wasn't the same Link in 2004.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/18/2006 11:06:03 AM | message detail
Yes, I realize that now that I see Crono did 37 and not 35.

The SFF talk was for Terra/Zelda, not Crono/Link.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/18/2006 11:06:49 AM | message detail
Even a Zelda supporter like me admits that this is probably the same thing that happened with Tifa/Vyse last year. I definitely wouldn't take Zelda over the likes of Snake or Sonic based on this match, but I think she's strong enough this year to handle Aeris or Tifa.

Also, for anyone who doesn't believe that she'll easily outperform Ganondorf on Samus, well, just wait and see. =P
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transience | Posted 10/18/2006 11:07:39 AM | message detail
people will throw the term SFF around in any match now.

darn you snake/sora
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xyzzy
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/18/2006 11:08:20 AM | message detail
I think the idea of Nintendo/Square SFF to any notable degree is pretty crazy. When has we ever seen Nintendo go and SFF the hell out of something Square?

I would be much more willing to say that Zelda boosted some and she has the ability to destroy fodder with ease. I think she may perform better by being up against only females, too, but there's not much to support that.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/18/2006 11:08:58 AM | message detail
Now now, tranny, Snake/Sora was that way because for the first time EVER Snake had an awesome match pic.

That and Sora really isn't strong at ALL.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
Haste_2 | Posted 10/18/2006 11:09:37 AM | message detail
After today, I figure the possibility of Sonic vs. Vincent being a close match is as good as it ever was.

Squall can't beat Snake because of a clear SFF between FF and Metal Gear? Remember how Aeris evaded SFF against Snake? (at least, most likely...) As for Lara/Chun Li, Lara Croft/Alyx Vance had the lowest vote total of Round 1, so I'm not worried for Chun Li at all there.

Terra and Kerrigan may be weak, but they're both still from two of the biggest games here, not to mention there was an assumed recent Square influx this year, so I don't think Kerrigan or especially Terra dropped (though I really doubt gained, too). Until further notice, I don't see why they're not reliable.

Possible anomaly, too. Sure, it's Nintendo vs. Square, but still, you never know...hrm, female SFF at random times (see Samus/Lara)? Terra did fall slightly short of her x-stat prediction against Kerrigan, so maybe she lost some slight support since last year.

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WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/18/2006 11:12:03 AM | message detail
HM, I'm not sayng this is pure SFF. Obviously Zelda boosted SOME, but if this is pure Zelda boost then I'm somewhat scared as to how much Dirge of Cerberus boosted Vincent.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/18/2006 11:14:40 AM | message detail
Possible anomaly, too. Sure, it's Nintendo vs. Square, but still, you never know...hrm, female SFF at random times (see Samus/Lara)? Terra did fall slightly short of her x-stat prediction against Kerrigan, so maybe she lost some slight support since last year.

Eh, it was about 1.25% below what the stats were calling for. That match went almost exactly to expectations -- and you might consider Kerrigan's better picture doing something -- so I wouldn't really say that was indicative of her losing any type of support. She's one of those fodder characters who shouldn't have much reason to go up or down at this point.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/18/2006 11:17:03 AM | message detail
Well, of course this isn't all Zelda. She'll likely end up out doing what Mario is projected to do here. I'm not sure I would want to call it "SFF" because that just seems so wrong for a Nintendo/Square match, even if they're at two opposite ends of the spectrum in strength. I think this performance is enough for her to solidify her position as the second strongest female in the bracket though.

But, if it is all Zelda then she's got the main bracket with ease!! =p

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/18/2006 11:18:23 AM | message detail
More like if it's all Zelda VINCENT takes the main bracket with a 52-48 win over Zelda >_>
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
WarThaNemesis | Posted 10/18/2006 11:19:00 AM | message detail
I would laugh though if you just picked the wrong LoZ character to break the Noble Nine.
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War13104 had something weak beating something strong and he looks smarter than you or something - TessaTestarossa
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/18/2006 11:19:09 AM | message detail
Why do you people insist on attaching characters at the hip like that? >>

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/18/2006 11:20:33 AM | message detail
Yeah, really. Zelda has always been stronger than Ganon. Don't let the MM/Zelda SFF from 2k3 fool you.
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If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/18/2006 11:20:58 AM | message detail
It would not be surprising at all to see Zelda getting over 45%+ against Samus in that match.

So Tifa beating Solid Snake is KA-RAY-ZEE, but Zelda doing so (after she was beaten handily last year) is perfectly fine? ^_^

And Turtle...please, for the love of my sanity, stop talking. You have virtually no evidence for a "second Nintendo boost", yet you continue to clutter this topic with this crap. The 2005 Nintendo boost presented itself to us quite plainly, and while it did have its deniers it was virtually impossible to debate after the second round. There was only one Square > Nintendo result aside from the finals, and that was Tifa > Luigi. The other matches were all Nintendo, and they weren't even close.

This year we've had Vincent > Ganondorf, Yoshi underperforming on Riku, Kirby underperforming on PoP, Falcon disappointing against Crono, Bowser underperforming on Leon, and Princess Peach barely getting by Jill Valentine. You're telling me that after TWO Nintendo boosts, that's the best that Peach could do? If that's the case, she'd have lost to a Speck of Dust before then, and it would have probably been a blowout.

You've got two -- read 'em, TWO -- instances of Nintendo characters specifically exceeding expectations. Luigi/Zero, and today. That's it. And as far as I'm concerned, today ain't worth jack, unless you really think Zelda's taking down Samus. If this is in any way an overperformance, it throws the entire match into doubt -- you can't call arbitrary limitations to an overperformance.

How about a REAL match to support your claims? Y'know, maybe Yoshi > Dante? Bowser putting up a fight against Crono? Zelda beating down Aeris? All those happen, yeah, at least there's a semblance of a case for you. But as of right now I'd be inclined to think the opposite more than anything else, and this is getting very tiresome.
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Commit it to memory.
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/18/2006 11:22:36 AM | message detail
So Tifa beating Solid Snake is KA-RAY-ZEE, but Zelda doing so (after she was beaten handily last year) is perfectly fine?

Do not underestimate the QUEEN OF rSFF!!

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"