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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 394

HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/17/2006 6:52:12 PM | message detail
Peach, stop yer stallin plz
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
Just Some Person | Posted 10/17/2006 6:52:38 PM | message detail
Crap, it's so close to the end of the match. All of these stalls/losses on Jill are drastically affecting the median needed to win.

Waaaah. No, Jill, no!

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If you hate Final Fantasy Mystic Quest, then you no longer exist to me. >_>
transience | Posted 10/17/2006 6:52:43 PM | message detail
20 votes does not make this match over, believe me. a mere 10 votes per update would probably win this match for Jill, and she was doing that until ten minutes ago.
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xyzzy
thatusername | Posted 10/17/2006 6:53:13 PM | message detail
If my math skills are on that puts Jill at 10.4 votes per update to get the win.
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Trickster: 4x Buffalo- Spazworrier|4x Lion- Gloves|1x Dragon- Edgey
MS- Bellocan 1x Rogue- Rushfan11
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/17/2006 6:53:19 PM | message detail
Wow...maybe Peach is actually really good at the night vote. Like how she did so well for the first 2 hours.
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caps
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/17/2006 6:53:55 PM | message detail
20 votes does not make this match over, believe me. a mere 10 votes per update would probably win this match for Jill, and she was doing that until ten minutes ago.

She wasn't doing it consistently, and it's actually now at the point that she requires more than 10 votes an update to win.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
transience | Posted 10/17/2006 6:55:07 PM | message detail
yeah, but as the night vote gets closer and closer, she's going to do better. I'm not saying Jill will win, but I'd be surprised if she didn't speed up come 11pm.
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xyzzy
Tediz247 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:55:32 PM | message detail
Pretty good cut for Jill.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
Janus5000 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:55:33 PM | message detail
BOOM. HEADSHOT.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Just Some Person | Posted 10/17/2006 6:55:37 PM | message detail
Jill gains 25?

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If you hate Final Fantasy Mystic Quest, then you no longer exist to me. >_>
rains of destruction | Posted 10/17/2006 6:55:47 PM | message detail
Woah, huge boost for Jill!
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I prefer to be called Vorlik.
# of times I've been called Vorlik : 27
transience | Posted 10/17/2006 6:55:50 PM | message detail
uhh i think that's more than 10.4
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xyzzy
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/17/2006 6:55:59 PM | message detail
HOLY INTENSIFICATIONALITY MATCH
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caps
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/17/2006 6:56:14 PM | message detail
Jill just whooped out a bloody shotgun
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
rains of destruction | Posted 10/17/2006 6:56:34 PM | message detail
I should have started my homework 2 hours ago, but this poll is more important to me!
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I prefer to be called Vorlik.
# of times I've been called Vorlik : 27
Terran | Posted 10/17/2006 6:56:43 PM | message detail
That update was big, but it still didn't make up for Peach's last two updates. Maybe that big gain is a sign of things to come though...

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
therealmnm | Posted 10/17/2006 6:57:08 PM | message detail
Colt Python?
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:57:14 PM | message detail
One bad five minute update is not the end of the world for Jill. One bad fifteen minute update probably would be, though. It pays to look at the bigger picture!
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/17/2006 6:57:15 PM | message detail
My teachers sure picked a good day to give me no homework for the first time all year!
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caps
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/17/2006 6:57:16 PM | message detail
yeah, but as the night vote gets closer and closer, she's going to do better.

We don't know that for certain. Peach was beating jill in the updates at the start of the match for about a half hour after the board voting/bracket voting/whatever you want to call it wore off. Jill didn't even have a lead of 400 ten hoursi nto the match; she did practically all of her major lead gaining during the school vote.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Tediz247 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:57:37 PM | message detail
Heh, I have a lab report to do and a test to study for, and I'm not leaving anytime soon.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
NClark128 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:58:10 PM | message detail
I have given up trying to make sense of this match, and I wouldn't be surprised if this has a Deus Ex Machina ending (read: Ceej comes on and throws out a bunch of stuffed votes).
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Oklahoma State Cowboys: 4-2 - back in my good graces with a 42-32 win over Kansas
Next: vs. Texas A&M (HOMECOMING, 9/21)
thatusername | Posted 10/17/2006 6:58:25 PM | message detail
9.76 per update for Jill.
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Trickster: 4x Buffalo- Spazworrier|4x Lion- Gloves|1x Dragon- Edgey
MS- Bellocan 1x Rogue- Rushfan11
DpObliVion | Posted 10/17/2006 6:59:06 PM | message detail
One bad five minute update is not the end of the world for Jill. One bad fifteen minute update probably would be, though. It pays to look at the bigger picture!

That's the way I look at it. It's not that Jill gained 27 votes in 5 minutes.....it's Jill has gone nowhere in 15 minutes.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/17/2006 6:59:23 PM | message detail
Throw all the damn trends out the window for now. Close matches are just damn screwy. I knew that update was coming for Jill though, a lot of times characters just knock back after losing a lot of votes.
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CB06 - Score: 34/38 Rank: Tied - 1458th Yesterday's Pick: Tifa Lockhart
Today's Pick: Peach Tomorrow's Pick: Zelda Losses: Cortana, Ganon, Zero, MC
transience | Posted 10/17/2006 6:59:41 PM | message detail
We don't know that for certain. Peach was beating jill in the updates at the start of the match for about a half hour after the board voting/bracket voting/whatever you want to call it wore off. Jill didn't even have a lead of 400 ten hoursi nto the match; she did practically all of her major lead gaining during the school vote.

in the last 55 minutes she's cut 60 votes. given how Jill did overnight (that first hour or so doesn't count, Ganondorf won that vs. Vincent and you saw what happened there), I'd be surprised if Peach is going to do any better than she is right now.
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xyzzy
Just Some Person | Posted 10/17/2006 7:00:38 PM | message detail
Jill loses 19 again.

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If you hate Final Fantasy Mystic Quest, then you no longer exist to me. >_>
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/17/2006 7:00:40 PM | message detail
Uh oh, now the Mets are losing. Bad karma carries over from sports to contest matches. :(
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Tediz247 | Posted 10/17/2006 7:00:44 PM | message detail
*pulls out bob-omb*
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/17/2006 7:01:03 PM | message detail
Or not, go Peach.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
charmander6000 | Posted 10/17/2006 7:01:33 PM | message detail
This is getting pretty intense, Jill only needs 11 votes per update to tie Peach.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
DpObliVion | Posted 10/17/2006 7:01:45 PM | message detail
So now, Jill has gone nowhere in the last half hour.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/17/2006 7:02:26 PM | message detail
in the last 55 minutes she's cut 60 votes. given how Jill did overnight (that first hour or so doesn't count, Ganondorf won that vs. Vincent and you saw what happened there)

He failed to do anything during the day?

I'd be surprised if Peach is going to do any better than she is right now.

I'm noly saying that nothing is certain at this point, and jill's strongest time against peach wasn't the night. That's all.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/17/2006 7:02:32 PM | message detail
See, now, that's bad, but not necessarily catastrophic. It definitely hurts her chances, though.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
transience | Posted 10/17/2006 7:02:37 PM | message detail
Peach's percentage by hour:

18:00 - 52.93%
19:00 - 51.15%
20:00 - 50.86%
21:00 - 49.56%
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xyzzy
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/17/2006 7:03:38 PM | message detail
One thing of note tranny, is that the match has been 50/50 for the last half hour. Jill seems to have stopped coming back consistently at the moment.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
transience | Posted 10/17/2006 7:05:12 PM | message detail
nothing is certain, that's for sure. it wasn't certain that Peach would win the afterschool vote either.. but she did. Jill won the night vote (and the time during which people were in school), like you'd expect her to. so far the match really hasn't deviated from what you'd expect. close matches can sometimes throw trends out the window, but this one hasn't yet.
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xyzzy
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/17/2006 7:05:17 PM | message detail
I'm still shocked at the comeback Peach made. I was expecting her to gain ground, but to put it in perspective:

15:05:01 (Jill's highest lead of 1421)
18:48:11 (when Peach re-took it)

That's almost a MC level comeback.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/17/2006 7:05:47 PM | message detail
Soo.. if Jill gets what.. 51.5% from here on out, and about 350 votes are cast per update, what would happen?
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CB06 - Score: 34/38 Rank: Tied - 1458th Yesterday's Pick: Tifa Lockhart
Today's Pick: Peach Tomorrow's Pick: Zelda Losses: Cortana, Ganon, Zero, MC
Just Some Person | Posted 10/17/2006 7:05:49 PM | message detail
Jill gains 3...

*le sigh*

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If you hate Final Fantasy Mystic Quest, then you no longer exist to me. >_>
Tediz247 | Posted 10/17/2006 7:05:49 PM | message detail
Gonna need more than three votes, Jill.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
Janus5000 | Posted 10/17/2006 7:06:10 PM | message detail
And so far about an MC-level choke!
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
thatusername | Posted 10/17/2006 7:06:30 PM | message detail
11.3 per update now.
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Trickster: 4x Buffalo- Spazworrier|4x Lion- Gloves|1x Dragon- Edgey
MS- Bellocan 1x Rogue- Rushfan11
DpObliVion | Posted 10/17/2006 7:06:41 PM | message detail
Jill gaining 3 is a victory for Peach.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
charmander6000 | Posted 10/17/2006 7:07:00 PM | message detail
I knew this match was going to be more like Ryu H./Jill than Kairi/Claire.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Janus5000 | Posted 10/17/2006 7:07:38 PM | message detail
Soo.. if Jill gets what.. 51.5% from here on out, and about 350 votes are cast per update, what would happen?

She loses by less than she did against Hayabusa.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/17/2006 7:08:41 PM | message detail
From: Janus5000
Soo.. if Jill gets what.. 51.5% from here on out, and about 350 votes are cast per update, what would happen?

She loses by less than she did against Hayabusa.


Yeah, I just did the calculation. This could get damn crazy...
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CB06 - Score: 34/38 Rank: Tied - 1458th Yesterday's Pick: Tifa Lockhart
Today's Pick: Peach Tomorrow's Pick: Zelda Losses: Cortana, Ganon, Zero, MC
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/17/2006 7:10:36 PM | message detail
Grrr
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Just Some Person | Posted 10/17/2006 7:10:45 PM | message detail
Jill gains 13.

No more stalls, come on!

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If you hate Final Fantasy Mystic Quest, then you no longer exist to me. >_>
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/17/2006 7:11:53 PM | message detail
Wow, I go to fix my Genesis controllers and come back to Peach having choked already. This is looking to be an extremely close result.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.