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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 394

dragoontheguy | Posted 10/17/2006 6:35:25 PM | message detail
Well if anyone is interested, the amount of votes jill needs to average per update has gone up to 8.73.

Jill needs to start picking up the pace if this is going to become a nail biter.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/17/2006 6:35:38 PM | message detail
Hit or Miss Lopen hits again XD
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/17/2006 6:35:43 PM | message detail
rolf @ Lopen with the top pick. Seriously, Hit for Lopen, eh?
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Jill vs. Peach - Bracket: Peach - Vote: Jill (34/38)
HeroicTronBonne | Posted 10/17/2006 6:36:05 PM | message detail
Give her half an hour to get prepared. Nemesis is blocking her paths to advance on Peach right now >_>
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Proud Member of The Bonne Pirate Family and Creator of the Servbots!
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend and Board 8er Masa/Hiko
transience | Posted 10/17/2006 6:37:14 PM | message detail
http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=match&match=58
http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k5&type=match&match=59

oh Lopen, how I love thee.
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xyzzy
NClark128 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:37:24 PM | message detail
Jill just gained 11.
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Oklahoma State Cowboys: 4-2 - back in my good graces with a 42-32 win over Kansas
Next: vs. Texas A&M (HOMECOMING, 9/21)
Tediz247 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:37:55 PM | message detail
What the **** at these update times. I was watching earlier, so I know it's been doing this all day, but I thought it would have been fixed by now.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
NClark128 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:38:40 PM | message detail
It is fixed, at least on the main GameFAQs site.
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Oklahoma State Cowboys: 4-2 - back in my good graces with a 42-32 win over Kansas
Next: vs. Texas A&M (HOMECOMING, 9/21)
Just Some Person | Posted 10/17/2006 6:38:46 PM | message detail
Update times are now :37, :42, :47, etc.?

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If you hate Final Fantasy Mystic Quest, then you no longer exist to me. >_>
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/17/2006 6:39:06 PM | message detail
Jill just gained 11.

Leaves to do something productive. If it's under 100 vote lead for Peach by 11PM EST, Jill will win this match.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/17/2006 6:39:13 PM | message detail
The problem isn't how much jill is winning updates by, it's by how consistently she's winning them by enough. Every time peach wins an update, or even goes 50/50 with jill it hugely impacts how much jill has to improve to win.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/17/2006 6:39:33 PM | message detail
Post your AIM names if you want an invite to the room!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/17/2006 6:39:42 PM | message detail
*gets home*

This is epic. Nail biter.

Jill should be stronger from 10-12 than she is now. A victory within mere double digit numbers is at hand.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
transience | Posted 10/17/2006 6:40:50 PM | message detail
yeah, if Jill is within 100 votes, I'd expect her to win it. I might even go higher, not sure yet. Weird Stuff happens when matches are close.
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xyzzy
Janus5000 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:40:55 PM | message detail
1) Lopen

XD

That alone should speak wonders for how unexpected the result was.

Though I remember red making a "Samus has no shot against Mario" topic, and there were others like Vlado and Pleinair who were pretty confident in Mario.

Oh and yay nailbiters.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/17/2006 6:41:11 PM | message detail
STOP IT, JILL!
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caps
Xuxon | Posted 10/17/2006 6:41:46 PM | message detail
Yeah, you have to take into account, Jill is better 10-11 than 9-10, and even better 11-12. Plus, she's been making pretty steady progress anyway.
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Take off every sig.
Ness26 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:42:31 PM | message detail
Hm, the poll keeps updating at odd times. Strange.

Anyway, go Jill! >_>
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Best. Board/Card Game. Ever Contest:
http://www.bracketmaker.com/tlist.cfm?tid=171196
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/17/2006 6:42:42 PM | message detail
lawlgrapefruit
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Princess Peach with 50.10%
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:43:23 PM | message detail
To be fair, incoming votals will drop from now till the end of the match, so Jill will need a higher percentage to keep pulling enough in to come back. But she looks like she might actually be able to pull it off - I think I've changed my mind over who will win this match more than other other match I can remember.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Xuxon | Posted 10/17/2006 6:44:43 PM | message detail
Oh, I was positive Mario was going to beat Samus before the match started, even though I had Samus in my bracket. I personally didn't expect quite that big a blowout, but I didn't expect Mario to be in any danger, and I figured over 55 was very possible. Mario vs Zero is what sealed it, I think, so it's probably the wrong reason, but whatever!
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Take off every sig.
transience | Posted 10/17/2006 6:45:13 PM | message detail
heh, if I could change my pick to Jill I probably would right now. I think she just looks better at the moment.

man how I'd love to see an emphatic 30 vote update win for Peach!
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xyzzy
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2006 6:45:13 PM | message detail
What? You used "IT'S FREAKIN' MARIO" yourself. Don't act like you didn't!

As reasoning for why Samus would get SFFd FTL.




By the way, Tanya stopped annoying me and finally went upstairs. As a rule, whatever I'm rooting for in sports and contest matches ALWAYS does better when she's not around. Watch Peach gain like 100 votes in the next 15 minutes.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
transience | Posted 10/17/2006 6:45:40 PM | message detail
wtf i'm smurf
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xyzzy
Just Some Person | Posted 10/17/2006 6:45:54 PM | message detail
Ooh, Peach gained by 9.

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If you hate Final Fantasy Mystic Quest, then you no longer exist to me. >_>
NClark128 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:46:00 PM | message detail
Peach strikes back! Nine vote gain!
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Oklahoma State Cowboys: 4-2 - back in my good graces with a 42-32 win over Kansas
Next: vs. Texas A&M (HOMECOMING, 9/21)
thatusername | Posted 10/17/2006 6:46:07 PM | message detail
lole, peach
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Trickster: 4x Buffalo- Spazworrier|4x Lion- Gloves|1x Dragon- Edgey
MS- Bellocan 1x Rogue- Rushfan11
Tediz247 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:46:21 PM | message detail
And Peach just won an update. The Ulti Curse? More like the Tanya Curse!!
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/17/2006 6:46:26 PM | message detail
Quick! Another analysis of how many VPU Jill needs to win!
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caps
therealmnm | Posted 10/17/2006 6:46:48 PM | message detail
As reasoning for why Samus would get SFFd FTL.

If it makes you feel better...
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/17/2006 6:46:56 PM | message detail
Like clockwork! Tanya is the Sports Curse!

If she stays away (and thank God I have TiVo), Peach is a lock to win!!

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
DpObliVion | Posted 10/17/2006 6:47:01 PM | message detail
Peach just cancelled out Jill's last gain! 10 minutes of precious comeback time down the drain!

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/17/2006 6:47:11 PM | message detail
Jill'ssurge is 15 minutes away :)

If she can get this to ~200 in the last two hours, I will be a happy man.

TG
Just Some Person | Posted 10/17/2006 6:47:37 PM | message detail
C'mon Jill. You can do it!

I'm rootin' for ya.

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If you hate Final Fantasy Mystic Quest, then you no longer exist to me. >_>
Redtooth | Posted 10/17/2006 6:48:04 PM | message detail
Come on Jill, don't let my oracle pick down!

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/17/2006 6:48:34 PM | message detail
Just to give you guys an idea on how drastically update wins by peach effect jills chances this late in the match... that single update victory for peach brought up the number jill needs to cut from the lead per update from 8.6 to 9.3.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/17/2006 6:48:48 PM | message detail
Where's Smurf so he can say

" I feel a big spike for Jill coming up next update n_n "

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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Princess Peach with 50.10%
therealmnm | Posted 10/17/2006 6:49:58 PM | message detail
If the voting completely shifts to Jill, then Peach's stalling won't matter. Peach's only hope is to keep consistent. Of course that's likely with stuffers all here and paying attention to the end of the match. It's similar to how Master Chief somehow continued to fight Frog through the night even though the shift SHOULD have kept going in Frog's favor.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Just Some Person | Posted 10/17/2006 6:50:33 PM | message detail
Peach gains 19!

Oh crap.

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If you hate Final Fantasy Mystic Quest, then you no longer exist to me. >_>
Janus5000 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:50:37 PM | message detail
DAMN YOU TANYAAAAAAAA
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/17/2006 6:50:42 PM | message detail
OH LAWD 18 votes for Peach
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/17/2006 6:51:07 PM | message detail
*19
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/17/2006 6:51:07 PM | message detail
lol Peach stuffing

TG
NClark128 | Posted 10/17/2006 6:51:20 PM | message detail
Well now... this changes things.
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Oklahoma State Cowboys: 4-2 - back in my good graces with a 42-32 win over Kansas
Next: vs. Texas A&M (HOMECOMING, 9/21)
DpObliVion | Posted 10/17/2006 6:51:39 PM | message detail
19 vote gain for Peach! This may be over.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
rains of destruction | Posted 10/17/2006 6:51:40 PM | message detail
I think that update pretty much killed Jill's chances =[
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I prefer to be called Vorlik.
# of times I've been called Vorlik : 27
Mikey Lenetia | Posted 10/17/2006 6:51:51 PM | message detail
You know...

The more I look at the picture, it seems the more Jill and Peach are cooperating.

"Pssst. Jill. That Nemesis thingy is over THAT way."
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Aerith: Who would you go for? Marth, Roy, or Link? If you had to choose.
Peach: Link. I'd sooner slap the other two around. Literally.
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/17/2006 6:51:58 PM | message detail
If the voting completely shifts to Jill, then Peach's stalling won't matter. Peach's only hope is to keep consistent. Of course that's likely with stuffers all here and paying attention to the end of the match. It's similar to how Master Chief somehow continued to fight Frog through the night even though the shift SHOULD have kept going in Frog's favor.

Here's the thing: peach didn't actually do that badly against jill during the night. It was during the school vote that jill created most of her lead.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
jonthomson | Posted 10/17/2006 6:51:59 PM | message detail
Bah, it's like 2:50 and I need to be up in the morning. Hopefully to a successful Jill comeback, but the last couple of updates aren't making me confident.
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Jon Thomson - Z1mZum pwned me good and proper.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/17/2006 6:52:06 PM | message detail
*checks updates*

Both of them rose from the last update, Peach just rose more.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.