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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 391

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:10:05 PM | message detail
I would actually give Jill a chance here on the basis of that Kairi match...only Kairi seems to be a chump with the KH day vote. She gained, what, a percent and a half on freaking Rikku?

That doesn't make Claire look too good by comparison.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/16/2006 10:10:28 PM | message detail
Mario lost the day vote to Zero by about 2%
Zero went even on the day vote with LLOYD
Sheena (whose voting patterns should be almost the same as Lloyd's) shredded 3% off of Jill's day vote.

Thus unless you want me to believe that Peach's dav toe > Mario's day vote, the most Peach should get of it is 1%.


Here's a common misconception: a character improving their percentage hugely during the day has just as much to do with them having a crappy night vote as it does with them having a good day vote. Mario has never done badly for himself during the night, and therefore doesn't have the huge day vote you might expect of him.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
transience | Posted 10/16/2006 10:10:42 PM | message detail
Jill had a 53-47 lead before the sun came up, didn't she?
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xyzzy
NewLib | Posted 10/16/2006 10:12:17 PM | message detail
Actually 1.5% on Rikku isnt bad when you compare she got 2.5% on Claire. That means Rikku's day vote through Kairi should only be 1% on Claire.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
King Bowser | Posted 10/16/2006 10:13:13 PM | message detail
Jill had 52.28% and a 465 vote lead over Hayabusa at around 6:00 AM EST. She started dropping quite a bit from there on.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
Lopen | Posted 10/16/2006 10:13:24 PM | message detail
FFX characters tend to win the day vote, don't they? I don't see why Kairi should squash Rikku with it. Especially considering that was a potential SFF situation.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
NewLib | Posted 10/16/2006 10:14:06 PM | message detail
Dragoontheguy, yeah I know that.

Nintendo characters are famous for having a steady vote throughout the match. KH and Halo for example have terrible night votes and great day votes.

Thus, I would think Peach would be steady with her vote. Kairi pulled 2.5% off of an RE character with a good day vote. I say Peach does closer to a 1%, because her vote is most likely steady.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/16/2006 10:14:23 PM | message detail
Okay, what I want to know is... where is everyone getting that RE sucks with the day vote? Jill went pretty even with Hayabusa with it... and he has the backing of the awesome X-Box day vote. And Leon beat Bowser with it... I can't think of any times where they really flopped with it.

Jill lost to Hayabusa both days they faced off because of the day-vote.. Leon is not only in the two biggest RE games, but is also in the most recent and mainstream game...not to mention Bowser's not exactly special with the day-vote, Nintendo or not. For an example of flopping with the day-vote, please, check Jill out last round.
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Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Alyssa Milano (#44)
NewLib | Posted 10/16/2006 10:16:36 PM | message detail
HM, Ryu also took the day vote from Dante who isnt bad with it.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/16/2006 10:16:53 PM | message detail
Dragoontheguy, yeah I know that.

Nintendo characters are famous for having a steady vote throughout the match. KH and Halo for example have terrible night votes and great day votes.

Thus, I would think Peach would be steady with her vote. Kairi pulled 2.5% off of an RE character with a good day vote. I say Peach does closer to a 1%, because her vote is most likely steady.


No argument here; I was just trying to point out that since RE always shines during the night except for what I can only guess is re4 characters, peach will gain during the after-school vote. That was all I was saying.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Xuxon | Posted 10/16/2006 10:16:55 PM | message detail
Rikku didn't gain too much on Ryu, though, and he's terrible with the day vote. From 50 minutes in until the end, Rikku gained 3%.

Jill does have a shot and I'm hopeful, but I think Peach has to be the favorite still.
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Take off every sig.
Who Cares? | Posted 10/16/2006 10:18:13 PM | message detail
Sigh, Ryu (SF) is bad with the MORNING vote. Will you people ever get it right? >_>
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21st) One down, two to go!
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/16/2006 10:18:32 PM | message detail
I don't know about you guys but I'm still waiting for Ganon's day vote against Vincent.

TG
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:19:04 PM | message detail
Meh, ToS is good with the day vote. Diablo, who impressed people back in the VC with it (admittedly against Metroid, Street Fighter, and FFVI) lost significant ground to Kratos. Lloyd used it to pull away from Wesker and gain percentage against Zero. The competition's not worth *too* much, but ToS is decent.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/16/2006 10:20:12 PM | message detail
I don't know about you guys but I'm still waiting for Ganon's day vote against Vincent.

You're terrible at trolling, you know that?
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
King Bowser | Posted 10/16/2006 10:20:14 PM | message detail
HM, Ryu also took the day vote from Dante who isnt bad with it.

Dante is not good with the day vote either. It's no accomplishment by taking the day vote from Dante.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
HaRRicH | Posted 10/16/2006 10:20:56 PM | message detail
I don't know about you guys but I'm still waiting for Ganon's day vote against Vincent.

Probably the best thing I've seen you post in the topics yet. Ha!
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Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Alyssa Milano (#44)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:20:59 PM | message detail
I don't know about you guys but I'm still waiting for Ganon's day vote against Vincent.

I might be a little more scared if I didn't know that Vincent was FFVII and the little fact that he was actually *leading* right now...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:22:18 PM | message detail
And almost like some kind of karmic balance, Peach is stalling Jill quite well now. Without any momentum, even the faintest glimmer of a comeback is crushed.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/16/2006 10:23:31 PM | message detail

You're terrible at trolling, you know that?


Lighten up, guy.

TG
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/16/2006 10:23:46 PM | message detail
Ganon did do much better in the morning than he did during the night. It's just those multiple 58% updates, combined with him leading, were pretty much indicative of how the rest of the match was going to go. Vincent was just in control of that match throughout -- and that comes from just being the stronger opponent, trends be damned.

Peach leading and not rolling over during what is Jill's best time of the match is nearly as indicative of how this entire match is going to go. I would hope no one would really think that Jill is going to do something during the day here.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
Xuxon | Posted 10/16/2006 10:24:06 PM | message detail
Actually, I don't know why I bothered bringing that up. Sure, someone like Sonic gained twice as much % on Ryu as Rikku, but then trying to quantify that with Kairi's change on Rikku is useless; it's across a 1-year gap with a poll time change and we're in school now.

Plus there are inconsistencies trying this method on other matches already that I don't remember off the top of my head.
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Take off every sig.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/16/2006 10:24:50 PM | message detail
Eh, Kairi stalled Claire until 3 AM. It's a long road for Jill if she wants to pull off a win, but she's not out of it just yet.

Although, Nintendo (I'm thinking mostly of Luigi and Ganondorf here, though there are probably others) tend to do very well during the morning vote, which Kairi...won, by a bit. So nevermind that point.
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Mustache...and green...
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BDawg | Posted 10/16/2006 10:25:43 PM | message detail
Meh even though this is closer Bowser/Leon was just so much more satisfying.
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Should I start running now?
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:28:13 PM | message detail
Bowser/Leon was so satisfying because Leon wasn't supposed to be in the Koopa King's league -- heck, not even the same galaxy of strength as him. Jill > Peach was actually a trendy upset pick...still an upset, but you've got to consider this a little disappointing for a character that once beat Kirby and outranked Luigi (on a potentially underrated Squall, no less!).

Hopefully RE5 and Umbrella Chronicles will help Jill regain some of that former magic, if not elevate herself to Leon's level.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/16/2006 10:29:45 PM | message detail
There was nothing satisfying about Bowser/Leon!

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/16/2006 10:30:40 PM | message detail
Peach back over 400!

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2006 10:37:10 PM | message detail
And Jill finally wins another update. Peach up by exactly 400 votes.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2006 10:43:29 PM | message detail
Hopefully RE5 and Umbrella Chronicles will help Jill regain some of that former magic, if not elevate herself to Leon's level.

I can see it happening, if it can pull in the mass success that RE4 did.

As for Leon, it's refreshing to see a relative newcomer that isn't a total chokejob.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:47:09 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero, Kratos, PoP don't qualify as that?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/16/2006 10:51:14 PM | message detail
Peach back under 400!

TG
Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2006 10:58:11 PM | message detail
LOL

50-50 update
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 11:00:04 PM | message detail
Jill has kept ahead of Claire's pace against Kairi so far, but Claire was improving much more now than Jill is against Peach. I'm thinking it'll be overtaken in a half hour or so...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 11:00:59 PM | message detail
Actually, scrap that, I was looking at the updater wrong. =/
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BDawg | Posted 10/16/2006 11:12:02 PM | message detail
I guess these exciting stalls aren't doing it for anybody. Yeah I'm going to bed too.
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Should I start running now?
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2006 11:24:58 PM | message detail
From Karma Hunter Posted 10/17/2006 1:47:09 AM
Sub-Zero, Kratos, PoP don't qualify as that?

Let me rephrase that:

It's refreshing to see a relative newcomer that can score 45% on someone as strong as Bowser.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/16/2006 11:25:22 PM | message detail
"Sub-Zero, Kratos, PoP don't qualify as that?"

Of course not, that'd be silly! Acts such as beating MC and looking decent vs. Kirby are nothing!
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/16/2006 11:25:46 PM | message detail
Finally the zombies woke up
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Supporter of Ryu.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/16/2006 11:41:12 PM | message detail
Two beautiful updates in a row. Bye bye Peach!
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Supporter of Ryu.
Xuxon | Posted 10/16/2006 11:48:59 PM | message detail
Was the poll down for a while or something? There's no update between the 2:30 and 2:40 updates, yet that 10 minute update had about 350 votes like any other update.
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Take off every sig.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/16/2006 11:50:18 PM | message detail
The updater is just one update after the actual poll.
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Supporter of Ryu.
Janus5000 | Posted 10/16/2006 11:51:15 PM | message detail
Remember that time Jill went ape against Ryu around 11:30?

...Okay, 2:30.

Yeah.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
greatone10 | Posted 10/16/2006 11:51:23 PM | message detail
Wow, Jill just made up a ton of lost ground after all that stalling.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/16/2006 11:51:56 PM | message detail
Actually, the updater's not behind anymore.

Anyways, Jill reduced Peach's lead by 100 in 25 minutes.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/17/2006 12:01:24 AM | message detail
Almost under 200 votes :D
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Supporter of Ryu.
King Bowser | Posted 10/17/2006 12:04:18 AM | message detail
Yeah.

I'm very glad Peach built up that 450 vote lead before the night vote kicked in. It'll act as a nice buffer so that Peach can make it all back during the day.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
King Bowser | Posted 10/17/2006 12:06:29 AM | message detail
Woo! Very nice gain by Peach -- up to 222!

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
TheSwizzle | Posted 10/17/2006 12:07:04 AM | message detail
I wish it weren't so, but yeah, this was expected of Jill. She'll gain during the night hours, maybe even take the lead, but she'll struggle and lose it throughout the day (or even morning).

Though I still hold out hope she'll one-up Peach, that's something best left to Mario .gifs. >_>
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"If at first you don't succeed, find out if the loser gets anything."
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/17/2006 12:08:31 AM | message detail
I find it funny to see people celebrating considering the fact that this is following the pattern set by Claire/Kairi. Only difference being Peach is Nintendo so she does better in the initial minutes, slightly worse at night and slightly better at day.
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If this post was overly verbose, that means I tried very hard to not call you an idiot.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
jonthomson | Posted 10/17/2006 12:09:53 AM | message detail
Not bad by Jill so far. Will probably get destroyed with the dayum vote, but at least it's interesting for a while.
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Jon Thomson - Z1mZum pwned me good and proper.